DAVE COKIN
VILLANOVA / NOTRE DAME
Take NOTRE DAME
My blog entry on 2/19 was critical of Villanova coach Jay Wright's decision to alter his strategy to focus more on defense. It was my contention that 'Nova is a team that can outshoot anyone on the right night, but that they simply do not have the inside personnel to win grinder-type games. So far, I'm right and Wright is wrong. Since the change in game plans, the Wildcats have struggled. Win but don't cover against Rutgers, win at Syracuse, barely beat a terrible DePaul team, lose outright to Georgetown. I'm not a coach, but I know that Villanova is a team that has to outrun and outgun its opponents. Interesting to note the one okay game in that stretch was at 'Cuse, and was played at a very fast pace. Tonight's game at Notre Dame may also end up at the right tempo for 'Nova, and that does worry me as far as this opinion goes. But with the Wildcats now out of synch and Notre Dame desperately needing the game, I'll lean to the home team this evening.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the home dog Heat.
All in all LeBron and the Cavs are certainly a superior squad when compared to Miami but this is certainly a spot to scoop up the number.
Cleveland just played a national tv game last night in Atlanta that came down to the buzzer and today are on the tough back-to-back and have to lay it on the line once again. Sure King James is as good as they come but Dwyane Wade ain't exactly chopped liver and this Miami team has been pretty solid this season. I like the addition of Jermaine O'Neal to go along with Wade and the Heat down in South Beach have a shot against anybody. Think about it, Cleveland played up until at 11pm on Sunday, showered, dealt with the media, took a bus to the icy airport, flew to Miami and probably first went to bed around 4am. These guys are phenomenal specimens but they are also still human and this is difficult as heck.
Cleveland has been unreal at home with only one loss but the road has not been as fruitful and these guys are vulnerable to begin with, no less when playing for a second straight day.
This is far from being a total no-brainer or a monster lock but to get the fresher team in Miami and a capable team that came back from 20 down in that last game against the Knicks in the a win I'll take my chances with D-Wade and the fellas.
Jake Timlin
Today's Selection
Going for their third straight road win on their current swing I look for the Cavaliers to earn that win tonight in Miami. After all given that Cleveland is great when playing the second game of back to back nights going 10-3 this season it’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers losing tonight. Especially given that the Cavaliers have won their past two road game against the Hawks and Spurs. Meanwhile, even with the Heat having a few days off to prepare given that they have lost 4 of the past 5 series meetings I just don’t see Miami beating the eastern conference leaders tonight. So thanks to the Cavaliers being a great team on back to back night’s I look for Cleveland to continue their winning tonight as they make easy work of the Heat. All Cleveland minus the road points tonight!
PICK: Cleveland Cavalier
Sports Gambling Hotline
New Orleans +1' at PHILADELPHIA
18-7-2 free play run the last 27 days!
NBA near pick tonight, and we will back New Orleans over Philadelphia.
True, the Hornets are on a 2-8 spread run their last 10, but New Orleans has won 4 straight, and 6 of their last 8 straight up, while Philly comes into this one in a little bit of a funk, losing 5 of their last 7 straight up.
For the season, the Sixers are just 13-15-2 against the spread at home, and the 76ers have also struggled with the matchups in this series, losing 3 straight.
Not only has New Orleans won the last 3, but they have also won 4 of the last 6 series showdowns, and are 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times these clubs have tangled.
We will take whatever points we can get, and look for New Orleans to handle Philadelphia once again.
Play on the Hornets.
1♦ NEW ORLEANS
Karl Garrett
Cleveland at MIAMI +4
For Monday, have to take the rested Heat plus the points at home against Cleveland.
The Cavs were in action on Sunday at Atlanta, and they are now playing their 4th game in 5 nights, and they haven't exactly been playing cupcakes of late, as this road swing has seen the Cavaliers battle the Rockets, Spurs, and Hawks coming into tonight!
Miami picked up a Saturday win at home over the Knicks, as they have run their home winning streak to 3 in a row.
The Heat did win the season's first meeting 104-95 at home at the end of December, and they have covered the last 3 series meetings, and 5 of the last 7 overall against Cleveland.
Look for the points to work with the home dog tonight.
1♦ MIAMI
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland -4 at MIAMI
LeBron and the Cavs against Dwyane Wade and the Heat. The top two scorers in the NBA going at it and the Heat getting the Cavs on the second night of a back-to-back. But look at what the Cavs do on the second night of a back-to-back and you'll see why we're backing Cleveland tonight.
The Cavs are 5-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back and they just crushed the Spurs three nights ago the day after losing to the Rockets. This team has great bounce-back ability and they'll show it again tonight. They played a tough one in Atlanta on Sunday night and got an 88-87 victory but failed to cash as four-point favorites.
Cleveland is on ATS runs of 43-20 overall, 36-16 as a favorite and 20-8 on Mondays. Look at the Heat and you'll see they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10, 2-6 on Mondays, 5-13 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 as a home 'dog.
The Cavs have too much on the inside for the Heat to handle. Cleveland has the size with Anderson Varejo and Zadrunas Illgauskas and those two can make life miserable on the boards. Then add in the outside shooting of Delonte West who is coming into his own and you'll see him light it up tonight.
Cleveland has won four of five in this rivalry and they'll get the job done in South Beach tonight.
5♦ CLEVELAND
Greg Shaker
Ga.Southn / The Citadel Over 141
This is a curious game for sure because even though I think that the Posted Number is a bit higher than it should be, and I think that perhaps it will drift downward, I like it to go OVER. By saying, the line is higher than expected, I mean that Oddsmakers may have overstepped the public sentiments and we will have to wait and see the line movement. Already it is down from an opening of 142. Whether I am wrong about what Vegas has said, I do think we have a good chance of some scoring activity on the court. The Bulldogs are not Ball Pushers, and in fact, they rank #314 out of 341 NCAA Division 1A teams in that department. Georgia Southern is on the other end of the spectrum, well within the Top 15% of all teams pacewise. What we do have is a Citidel squad than has put the ball in the nets at a much higher rate than most teams. We also have 2 Teams that have very poor D Efficiency. The Eagles are as bad as it gets, ranked #337 in the country at stopping the opposition percentage-wise per trip down the court. That is about as bad as it gets. That is getting worse as the season progresses, and they have allowed over 80 points per game the last 5 times they have stepped on the hardwood. Citidel has already scored 84 verses them this year in a 159 affair back in January. Last year's game gave us 164 points on this court. I was very happy with the last game the Bulldogs played as I had the Under in that contest verses Wofford. We saw just 93 attempts from the court in that one. We will see a lot more than that tonight, and if both D's play status quo, this one will sail OVER the mark. I would play it up to 144.
Dwayne Bryant
The Citadel -5.5 vs 522 Ga.Southn
This is the most important regular season game in many years for The Citadel Bulldogs. They're looking to not only earn their first 20-win season since the 1978-79 team, but they need a win to lock up an all-important first-round bye in this weekend's Southern Conference Tournament. With the bye, the Bulldogs' dreams of earning the school's first bid to the NCAA Tournament become much more realistic.The Citadel had an 11-game winning streak snapped in their last game -- a 62-55 home loss to a Wofford team that swept both meetings this season. The last time the Bulldogs had lost a game prior to Saturday was a 66-63 defeat at Wofford on 1/17/09. After that, the Bulldogs responded with 11 straight wins, so coach Ed Conroy is confident his team will bounce back from this latest loss to the Terriers. "Win or lose, our approach has been the same," he said. "It didn't change during the streak, so now we don't do anything different."The Citadel's 84-75 win over Georgia Southern on 1/8/09 was the game that started a downward slide for the Eagles. Guard Willie Powers suffered a season-ending knee injury in that game and the Eagles lost four of their next five games. With three more players lost to suspensions, GSU now has dropped nine straight Southern Conference games. Their only win in February was a BracketBuster victory over Jacksonville State."It's been tough for our guys," said Eagles coach Jeff Price, whose teams have won 20 games three times in his 10 seasons. "We've never had a season like this, we've been pretty successful the last 10 years. It's been difficult for us, but we have no choice but to keep our heads up and keep fighting."In looking at each team's home/road stats, I see The Citadel with clear edges in FG%, FG% allowed, free throw %, rebound margin, points allowed, and 3-point % allowed.The Citadel is also an amazing 10-0-1 ATS away from home this season. The Bulldogs are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.Georgia Southern is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Eagles are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.The Citadel will be playing with mega-motivation, while Georgia Southern has the look of a team that just wants to get the season finished. I'll lay the points with The Citadel.
nba. Atlanta-4' @ Washington. A trip to the nation’s capital might help
the Atlanta Hawks bounce back from their latest disappointing loss
which was yesterday at home against Cleveland. Mired in a slump,
the Hawks look to sweep the season series from the lowly Washington
Wizards for the first time in 11 years tonight, hawks cover-4'.
Charlies Sports - free pick
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Maddux Sports
Today's Free Pick is Philadelphia -2.5
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(502) Philadelphia 76ers -1.5
The Hornets are 4-1 straight up in their last five games but they are 0-5
against the spread in those games and they have not done very well in
the role of a small underdog. The Hornets are 0-6 against the spread in
their last six games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and they
are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games overall. I
look for the Sixers to pick up the win here against the unrested Hornets
team. Philadelphia is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games
as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Sixers win here!
from ezwinners.com
Tony George
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Dallas -5
Rarely in the NBA do you see a matchup edge that in every single stat category one team has an advantage in all those areas. Dallas has an advantage in points scored, points allowed, turnovers, free throw percentage, bench depth, rebounding, and field goal percentage. Not to mention that the Thunder have allowed a deplorable 116 ppg on defense the last 5 games against a team tonight scoring over 105 ppg on offense. The frontcourt and rebounding advantage for Dallas in this game is huge, and Kevin Durant for OK City is doubtful tonight, but if he does play it is on a very sore ankle which will affect his game. Dallas just won this game in OT last week at home, but I have a feeling tonight that no matter how good the ATS record is of OK City, Dallas rolls them.
LT Profits
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5
Many people expected the Oklahoma City to fold up without the injured Kevin Durant, but that was not the case on Saturday and we would not be at all surprised if the Thunder shock the Dallas Mavericks outright tonight.
The Thunder rose up in their first full game without Durant and upset the Memphis Grizzlies 99-92 on the road Saturday as seven-point underdogs. They now return home where they are an incredible 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games, with one of the ATS losses being an outright win and another coming vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, which is certainly forgivable.
Oklahoma City is already 2-0 ATS vs. Dallas this season, even though they narrowly lost both games outright, and most impressively, both of those games were at Dallas! The Thunder lost by just four points at Big D in the first meeting, and then took the Mavericks to overtime there in a 110-108 defeat on Friday.
The fact that Dallas has struggled with the Thunder is not that surprising when you consider that the inconsistent Mavericks have a nasty habit of playing down to the level of their competition. They have a losing ATS record of 28-31 overall despite being 36-23 straight up, and Dallas is actually getting outscored on the road by a small margin of -1.4 points per game.
All this makes the Mavericks shaky road favorites here, so look for Oklahoma City to at the very least take this game to the wire with a win on the court a real possibility.
Pick: Thunder +5.5
Rocketman Sports
Villanova @ Notre Dame
Play: Villanova +3.5
Villanova comes in with a very nice 23-6 overall record while Notre Dame has struggled somewhat with a 16-12 overall record. Villanova is 8-2 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Villanova is 14-5 ATS last 3 years and 6-0 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more after 15 or more games. Villanova is 7-1 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more. Notre Dame is 3-12 ATS after a conference game this year. Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Fighting Irish are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Fighting Irish are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big East. Fighting Irish are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Fighting Irish are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Villanova tonight!
Dennis Macklin
Davidson at Elon
Play: Davidson
With the overall strength of the college hoop heavyweight conferences like the Big East and ACC, teams like Davidson had better not leave it to the committee for an at large bid if they were not to win their conference tourneys. The Wildcats took some BAD losses while Curry was down with an injury and then handles easy in BBuster at home by Butler with Curry. Would throw this game out immediately but ..... Davidson beat Elon by 17 the first time around and Phoenix could be without 13 ppg if PG James doesn't play. Take a flyer on Davidson.
Matt Fargo
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Normally I am not a proponent of laying road chalk in the NBA but if there is a side in this game, this is the one. I was on Oklahoma City when these two teams met on Friday and the Thunder nearly pulled off the outright upset. It was the second time this season in as many games in Dallas that Oklahoma City nearly won, easily covering the number both times. That alone will keep the Dallas players? heads in this game as it has been a team that has lost focus against the bad teams in the league for the most part this year. The Mavericks are 14-15 on the road and has not won away from home since February 2nd. It only played four road games all of February and all four came against teams that are in the playoffs so this is its first ?winnable? road game since playing at Miami back at the end of January and that did result in a 15-point win. The big story here is that Oklahoma City will be without its best player Kevin Durant who suffered a grade II sprained ankle Friday night in an overtime loss in Dallas. It?s the same type of sprain that sidelined Utah?s Deron Williams for more than a month. He was on crutches Friday and Saturday and it?s doubtful he will play this week. The Thunder actually won on Saturday without Durant but that game was against Memphis who has dropped seven straight games and is 6-28 in its last 34 games. Oklahoma City is definitely a better team at home but there is just too much going against it here. Dallas falls into a simple yet effective power situation. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off three or more consecutive home wins in the second half of the season. This situation is 115-66 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +8.7 ppg. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the second half of the year against poor defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent or better from the floor. Dallas is 30-10 this season as a favorite and 6-12 as an underdog and it will add to the former tonight as it will not be taking Oklahoma City lightly this time around. 3* Dallas Mavericks
MyDreamBet
Pick: Atlanta Hawks -4,5
Tonight the Atlanta Hawks visit the Washington Wizards. In this game the visiting team, the Hawks are given as favorites by the Spread of -4.5. In this game the line of total points is in 199 points.
This will be a game between two teams with completely uneven quality with clear advantage for the Hawks team, in addition to the objectives of these teams are very different, on the one hand the Hawks are a team with goals in the playoff while the Wizards are no longer fighting for nothing at this time.
The Atlanta Hawks lost the game last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers 88-87 in a game decided in the last seconds and the victory to fall to the side of the Cavaliers in a game well contested. Despite the defeat in the game yesterday, the Atlanta Hawks secure 4th place in the East Division with a good record of 33-26 but obviously the aim is join more wins to get a good spot in the playoffs.
The team of the Washington Wizards continue to show many problems. The Wizards hold the last position of the East Division with a terrible record of 14-45 which shows the poor performance of this team. Injuries and lack of motivation showed that the Wizards are a team with fragile and objectives for this season and the best that could happen was that this nightmare was over quickly. Even playing at home the Wizards have a poor record of 10-21 and already we can see that the home-factor is not important in this game.
This is a game where the Atlanta Hawks could avenge the defeat suffered in last night, and nothing better than having a weak opponent like the Washington Wizards team. This is a game that the Hawks could use to add one more victory and thus insure its increasingly 4th position in the East Division. As for the Wizards is only one game into the bad end of the season. These two teams have already faced over 3 times this season and the Atlanta Hawks managed to win in those 3 games.