Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cavs/Heat UNDER 186.5
Cleveland's offense hasn't been nearly as potent as the season has gone on, especially on the road. That's why we have seen the Cavs play to the under in 4 of 5 and 9 of their last 13 games. This series has been an unders machine, especially when played at Miami, as the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Miami and 12-5 in the last 17 meetings overall. The Under is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 vs. the Eastern Conference and 17-8 in the Heat's last 25 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. Take the Under.
Bryan Leonard
Villanova at Notre Dame
The Wildcats have slumped a bit as of late barely winning by a bucket at DePaul and losing at home to Georgetown. With a trip to the Big Dance secure the team hasn't played with a great deal of effort as of late. And in reality they haven't been that impressive on the road. Not only did they struggle to beat DePaul but they lost at West Virginia by 21, only beat Providence by 3 and couldn't put away South Florida winning by just 9 points. While we really think this Villanova team can go a long way come tournament time they haven't been playing up to their capabilities.
At 16-12 the Irish need every win possible at this stage of the season to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. They are off a loss at Connecticut but overall played very well in a 72-65 defeat. Notre Dame has just two home losses on the season, with Connecticut and Marquette being the culprits. With a home game against St Johns to end the regular season a victory tonight is paramount to their chances. Lay the small number as the Irish lay it all on the line.
PLAY NOTRE DAME
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks -4 over Washington
I'm not afraid to lay the small number here with Atlanta on the road as the Hawks have won three straight games at the Verizon Center and five straight overall against Washington. Atlanta is struggling with losses in four of their last five games, so they should be hoping to end that streak by buckling down tonight against the lowly Wizards. Washington has gone just 10-21 at home this year and with Atlanta needing to get back on track I see them winning handily tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Miami Heat +4
I like the rested Heat tonight against a Cavs team that played a barnburner against the Hawks last night. Miami has won 17 of the last 22 in this series at home and Dwayne Wade loves taking on LeBron and company as the Heat are 2-0 ATS versus the Cavs this season. Cleveland lost by 9 points in Miami as a 5.5-point favorite back on December 30th and I expect a very similar outcome tonight. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southeast and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Cavaliers vs. Heat
The Cavaliers end a short road trip with a visit to South Beach and they are just 2-5 ATS the past 7 meetings with the Heat and Miami owns a 7-1 ATS mark against the Central Division. Our Monday NBA selection is Miami Heat.
Rob Homyak
Villanova Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 units on Notre Dame
The Irish are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Wildcats and they?ve covered each of the last three played in South Bend. Villanova is 1-4 ATS all in the Big East and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games after a straight-up loss.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Andre Gomes
PHI / NOH Under 189.5
On my preview I said that the Hornets matchup pretty well against the Sixers. Philadelphia is a fast break minded team who likes to attack the post and they are on the top 3 of these categories. The problem for them is that the Hornets are also in the top 4 of allowing fast break points and points in the paint, so this team has the tools to stop defensively the Sixers. It's not a mere coincidence that they are 3-0 against the Sixers since last season winning by 15, 19 and 21 points! However this is a back to back game for the Hornets and they are an awful team playing in such scenario, as away underdogs they are 1-7 ATS with the only cover being made in the first back to back game of the season!
The coincidence between all of those wins against the Sixers is that all 3 games ended being under: 165, 171 and 187 points. I expect the same thing to happen tonight. The Hornets have now Tyson Chandler and he is their best shot blocker and against the Sixers he will be extremely useful. The Sixers are coming from a brutal home loss against Orlando. I remember that they led the game as many as 13 points late on the game, but they were outscored by 20-36 in the fourth quarter. They are a great team at bouncing back from bad defensive performances, as the Under is 5-1-1 in the Sixers last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Sixers have been playing great defense as home favorites, this is easy to understand because they know that only sticking to their defense, they have chances to execute their precious fast break points. In fact, the Under is 22-8 in the Sixers last 30 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 10-0 Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. I think that this game will end in the low's 180 points and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.
Info Plays
3* on New Orleans Hornets +2.5
Reasons why the Hornets cover the spread:
1.) Philly is back to reality, losing 5 of their last 7 games overall. The 76ers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as well. New Orleans will knock off the 76ers tonight as they are playing much better basketball now that Tyson Chandler has returned to the floor. The Hornets have won 4 straight games now, holding their last 3 opponents to 96 points or less. This team plays great defense and at full strength the Hornets are very dangerous. New Orleans will be up on this Eastern Conference opponent tonight.
2.) Last 3 meetings. The Hornets won 101-86, 95-76 and 93-72 in their last 3 meetings with the 76ers. These games haven’t even been close, and the largest margin of victory which was 21 points came on the road in Philly. New Orleans clearly has the 76ers’ number and should not be listed as the underdog tonight..
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. This is a 61-28 ATS System hitting 68.5% since 1996. Philly has given up 97 or more points in 7 straight games. They just don’t get after it defensively like the Hornets do. Bet New Orleans on the road.
John Martin
1 Unit on San Antonio Spurs -8
The Spurs are looking to make amends for one of their most embarrassing defeats of the season. San Antonio lost badly to the Blazers last night, and that was their second loss in a row. The Spurs will not be losing 3 straight games tonight. San Antonio is 9-0 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the Clippers. The Spurs have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to L.A. as well. Tim Duncan is now back in the lineup and the Spurs are nearing full strength. The Clippers are still battling the injury bug, and G Eric Gordon is now listed as doubtful to play tonight. Gordon has clearly been the biggest surprise on this team all season, and the Clippers will miss his shooting tonight. L.A. is just 8-22 SU & 11-19 ATS at home this season. Home court hasn’t really helped this team as you can see by these putrid numbers. The Spurs have been at their best on the road, posting 19-11 SU & 17-12 ATS records in road games this year. Coming off back-to-back losses, the Spurs will be playing very motivated basketball tonight. Cash in with the Spurs as the favorite.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks -4
Atlanta is bitter over their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, a last-second loss in which Lebron made a free throw with just over a second remaining on a play in which it didn’t appear he was actually fouled. The Hawks are going to take out their anger on the helpless Washington Wizards tonight. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with Washington, including a 21-point blowout the last time they faced one another. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 visits to Washington as well. The Wizards are only 10-21 SU and 12-19 ATS at home this year. Washington is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season. This is a tired Wizards’ team and the past has shown that they have been very poor on tired legs. Washington is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Hawks pick up their 5th straight win over Washington, and their 6th straight cover in their last six road meetings vs. the Wizards. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
(Power Angle Play)
Texas/ Baylor Over 146.5
The Over is 12-3 in Bears last 15 games as a road underdog and 14-4-1 in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Over is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 games as a favorite. Both of these offenses have been very good this year, as tey Bears come in averaging 77.6 ppg overall, while the Longhorns have averaged 73 ppg this year. Baylor's offense has slipped a bit lately, but they still average 73.9 ppg in the Big 12 and 72 ppg on the road overall. Texas has scored 76.4 ppg at home this year, including 81 ppg in their last 5 big 12 home games. Defense has not been a fortay of the Bears this year as they have allowed 72.1 pg overall, including 77.8 ppg in their last 10 games, plus they have allowed 78.9 ppg on the road this year. The Longhorns have played decent defense this year overall, but they have really struggled in their last 6 games as they have allowed 74.9 ppg over that stretch, plus the Longhorns have allowed 70.3 ppg in their Big 12 games. Baylor's road games have averaged 150.9 ppg, while Texas' last 6 games have put up 152.8 ppg. Also we note that the Over is 5-2 the last 7 in this series, with an average of 150.7 ppg, while 3 of the last 4 played here have gone over the total, with an average of 152.8 being scored. Both defenses are struggling right now and that should allow both teams a chance at 75+ points in this one. I see a game in the mid 150's
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The Over is 14-4 when Baylor is revenging a loss vs an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Average points scored is 161.5 ppg.
3 UNIT PLAY
NOTRE DAME -3 over Villanova
The Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss, while the Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Durning the middle of the season Notre Dame lost 7 games in a row, but somehow a win here and then vs St Johns and Notre Dame could find their way into the big dance. The Irish have played well vs the Cats of late as they have taken 4 of the last 7 outright and are 5-1-1 ATS in those games. Notre Dame has really showed their urgency down the stretch as they are 4-2 in their last 6 games and almost knocked off the powerful Huskies in their last game. Notre Dame has been a solid home team all year long as they are 11-2 overall and have outscored those opponents by 16.1 ppg, while they are 5-2 in their Big East home games and have outscored those opponents by 6.9 ppg. The Cats come in with a 3-2 SU mark in their last 5 games, but just 1-4 ATS in those games, which shows me they are not playing that well at the moment. In those 5 games the Cats struggled with Rutgers and Depaul, were destroyed by West Virginia and were upset on their home floor vs a reeling Georgetown squad. Not very impressive. Their only good game was a 3 point win at Syracuse. Notre Dame is playing very inspired ball right now and they need this one a whole lot more than the Cats, so look for Harangody and McAlarney to lead the Irish to the big win here. Notre Dame by 7+ in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Citadel -5.5 over GEORGIA SOUTHERN
The Bulldogs are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 road games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 vs. Southern, while the Eagles are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 vs. Southern. I have really had the pulse of the Citadel team this year as I am 6-1 when picking a game involving them this year. That lone loss was their last game when I had them -5 vs Wofford. Prior to that loss by the Bulldogs they had won 11 in a row, including wins at Davidson and Charleston. The Bulldogs are a very solid 14-5 in conference play and have outscored their opponents by 5.9 ppg. This is a team tat plays very solid defense as they have allowed 64.6 ppg overall (94th), including allowing just 62.4 ppg in conference play. The Bulldogs have put up 68.6 ppg in conference play and should have good success vs this weak eagles defense. The Georgia Southern offense has been decent this year averaging 70.9 ppg, but they have had major problems at the other end of the floor as they have allowed 78.7 ppg overall (334th), including 77.7 ppg in league play. The Eagles come in with a 1-10 mark in their last 11 games and have been outscored by 13.1 ppg in those games, plus they are just 4-15 in league play overall and have been outscored by 7.7 ppg in the process. A win here by the Citade will give them their first 20 win season in a long time and they should get it with little resistance from the Eagles here. Bulldogs by 10+.
TEXAS -8 over Baylor
1 UNIT PLAY
Citadel/ Georgia Southern Over 140.5
John Ryan
Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado as they travel to face the NY Islanders slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-15 making 23.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams against the money line after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 40% to 49% playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 50-17 making 27.9 units since 1996. Play on road favorites against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season in the second half of the season. Islanders are not in a good position for this game noting they are just 5-18 against the money line (-11.5 Units) against horrible power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on >19% of chances this season. Take Colorado.
Jeff Benton
Simple thought process here: How in the world can Texas be laying this kind of impost with the way it is playing right now: Not only did the Longhorns lose 68-59 at Oklahoma State on Saturday, but they’ve dropped five of their last seven overall, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine.
Granted, Baylor has been enduring its own pointspread issues, failing to cover in nine of its last 12 overall and 12 of the last 15. But the Bears haven’t been THIS big of an underdog all season long. And, yes, the Longhorns have dominated this rivalry from a final-score standpoint, winning 23 in a row against Baylor, However, the last six meetings (including one this year) have been very competitive. Texas’ victory margins were by 6, 5, 8, 4, 1 and 5 points. I’ll do the math for you: That’s six games (including this year’s 78-72 contest that the ‘Horns won at Baylor) decided by a total of 29 points!
Throw in the fact that Texas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 home games, has just two double-digit Big 12 wins all season and is the team with a ton of pressure going into this contest, and I’m all over the undervalued underdog.
3♦ BAYLOR
Craig Davis
Look, I’ll be the first to tell you when I’m on a roll, but I’ll also be honest with and tell you that the last four days have been the worst of my life. I’ve never seen anything like this. Some bad calls on my part combined with some really bad beats and I’m completely stunned. The two pieces of good news are: 1) I ALWAYS bounce back in a big way off a cold streak and 2) My free plays are on fire. I’ve won five straight free selections (Kansas – winner on Sunday) and eight of the last 11. That’s no mistake! That tells me that I’m due for an incredible bounce back and it starts tonight. I’ll prove it to you with yet another free play winner on Elon College.
Davidson has already wrapped up the Southern Division Conference regular season title and the #1 seed in the conference tourney, so what do they really have to play for tonight?
You see, when the season comes down to this point we often make bad calls on teams that really don’t care about playing in anything other than a tournament game.
Davidson fits this scenario to a T. What can they prove by blowing out a bad Elon team? In fact, I believe they will rest most of their starters in the second half to make sure they are fully ready for the conference tourney.
Elon, conversely, is trying to tweak a few things before they get ready for the conference tourney and with this being senior night, you can bet they’ll give the crowd the absolute best they have to offer.
No doubt Davidson wins, but Elon will easily keep this game within 15 points, getting us FREE PLAY WINNER #6 in a row.
3♦ ELON
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
We missed yesterday as Wisconsin couldn’t close the deal as the Badgers end up costing us a Comp Play winner.
That’s fine because we’re getting back on track tonight as we’re heading to Big XII country where we’re taking Texas at home against visiting Baylor.
The Bears come into this game absolutely horrible lately, having covered only once in their last 10 games and going 0-5 ATS their last five games on the road. In that five-game road stretch Baylor has not won any game SU and has lost by an average of 12.4 points per game.
Tonight, the Bears enter as about an 8-point underdog and have to deal with a Texas team that is on a 3-game cover streak against Baylor.
Consider, too, that the Bears are 0-4 ATS their last four games when installed as an underdog and have not covered in any of their last five road games against teams with a winning home record.
Baylor will continue its woes as the Longhorns get over easily at home tonight. Take Texas at home in this one.
3♦ TEXAS