Jack Jones
Washington Wizards vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5
Both Minnesota and Washington are bad, but I'll go with the Wolves tonight here are coming off a two point loss in Portland on Saturday night and get to play this game at home. Washington has lost five straight and the last two games at San Antonio and Dallas have come by a minimum of 16 points. I know the Wolves haven't been playing well without Al Jefferson, but this young squad needs a win and going against a Washington team that has been worse than they are gives them a solid chance. Minnesota should be motivated here since they have dropped three straight to Washington, but those were against better Wizards teams. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are revenging a loss to an opponent who scored more than 110 points against them when that team is coming off a double digit loss. 69-36 (65.7%) since 1996.
Jeff Benton
Got a frustrating push with yesterday’s free play on Duke at North Carolina (the Blue Devils were covering for 39 of 40 minutes in that game). We’ll try again Monday by backing St. Mary’s plus the points against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship game from Las Vegas.
Certainly when you look at Saturday’s results, Gonzaga was clearly the more impressive team, destroying Santa Clara 94-59 as a 14½-point favorite, after which the Gaels struggled to put away Portland 71-61 as an 8½-point chalk. However, Portland’s a much better team than Santa Clara, so I wouldn’t take too much away from what happened Sunday.
Rather, I prefer to look at how Gonzaga struggled in two wins over St. Mary’s earlier this season. On Jan. 29, the Bulldogs won 69-62 but didn’t cover as a 9½-point favorite, but lost in the final score is the fact that St. Mary’s had a 39-33 halftime lead, then lost its heart and soul – point guard Patty Mills – to a broken wrist early in the second half. (More on Mills in a second). Without their playmaker, the Gaels fell flat down the stretch, but still cashed. Then on Dec. 12, with Mills in street clothes, St. Mary’s took Gonzaga to the wire before losing 72-70, once again covering the spread, this time as a four-point home underdog.
Back to Mills. After a five-week layoff to heal his injury, the sophomore from Australia returned to action last night, and although he was expectedly rusty (3-for-12 shooting, three turnovers), he did finish with 12 points and played 35 minutes, and he was much better in the second half (no turnovers) than in the first. (Not coincidentally, the game was tied at the break and St. Mary’s outscored Portland by 10 points in the final 20 minutes.)
Bottom line: Mills, who averages 18.8 points and 4 assists per game, gave St. Mary’s a big-time emotional spark last night. And with a game under his belt and fully confident that his wrist is OK, I expect Mills to be at his best tonight. If he his, the Gaels not only will cover against Gonzaga for the fifth time in six meetings, they’ll challenge for the outright upset! Take the points.
4♦ ST. MARY'S
Jake Timlin
Today's Selection
Awful matchup between a pair of bad teams, but given that Minnesota is really bad right now I say take Washington plus the points. You see for the Timberwolves their season turned south the day they lost their best player in Jefferson as Minnesota has dropped 11 of their last 12 games. Even worst the Timberwolves have lost 14 of their last 15 games overall to really stink it up. Meanwhile, for Washington despite not being good either they at least can hang their cap on the fact that they have won and covered the past 6 series meetings, including a 8 point win at home just a few weeks ago. So in a game that one team has to win I look for the Wizards to get the road win here as the Timberwolves continue to loss.
All Washington plus the points!
PICK: Washington Wizards
GINA
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
The Bulls have struggle on the road. Chicago has lost their last four road games, just 10-23 away from home this season and has lost seventeen of the last 22 in South Beach. Go with the Heat at home. Miami has won and covered the first two meetings with Chicago this season.
Miami Heat -5
Johnny Guild
New Orleans Hornets at Atlanta Hawks
The Hornets have won seven straight games, nine of its last 12 and are 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in their last four clashes at Philips Arena. Take the Hornets and Chris Paul to sting the Hawks in Atlanta.
New Orleans Hornets -1.5
NCAAB
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -4.5
Mr A
New Orleans Hornets -1½
Miami Heat -5
Houston Rockets +3½
EZWINNERS.COM FREE SELECTION
Game: Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets
OVER 198.5 TOTAL POINTS
Four out of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over the total and tonight's match up is another good spot for a lot of scoring. These will be two tired teams and when a team is tired their defense usually slacks off. Both of these teams played yesterday and Denver is playing their fourth game in five nights while Houston is playing their third game in four nights. Look for this one to cruise over the total.
2009 Free Selections Record 36-31 (53.7%)
Rob Homyak
5 units on Denver Nuggets
The Rockets defeated Memphis 93-83 as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).
Yao Ming scored 24 points to go along with 17 rebounds for Houston, while Luis Scola added 18 points and 14 rebounds in the win.
The Nuggets lost to Sacramento 114-106 as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (214.5).
Carmelo Anthony led Denver with 32 points and Chauncey Billups delivered 22 points and eight assists.
Denver opens a four-game homestand, has won seven of eight at home and won three straight home games over the Rockets. Houston is 2-6 (3-5 ATS) in their last eight on the road, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
The home team has won each of the last seven meetings between these two (5-2 ATS), including all three this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 ATS against Western Conference teams, 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and 6-1 ATS at home against teams with losing road record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Tommy the Swami
DEN / HOU Over 198
Decent OVER opportunity in this matchup with both teams off games on Sunday, leaving them with the tired legs that suffer the most on defense. If we look at Denver, we can see that fatigue hurts their defense, as the Nuggets are - 22-5 OVER playing thier 4th gm in 5 nites. Denver als OVER 5 of thier 7 gms this season as a 3.5 to 6 pt host.Nice fit as the Rockets are OVER 3 of their 4 as 3.5 to 6 pt road dog. Houston has gone Under 2 straight games just TWICE thru their last 25 games. Houst also OV 9-4 after allowing 85 or less - OV 14-7 off a 10(+) pt win- OV 9-5 vs the Northwest Div- Series is also on a 3 -0 Over run.
Larry Ness
St. Mary's (Cal.) +7.5 vs Gonzaga
Gonzaga lost 66-65 to Utah on Dec 31 and the Bulldogs were just 8-4. However, their only loss in 2009 (Bulldogs are 17-1) came to Memphis (an ugly 68-50 one) but in case you aren't aware, the Tigers have won a nation-best 22 straight games. PG Pargo (9.3-3.6-5.1) was the WCC's player-of-the-year last season and distributes the ball to a trio of big guards, the 6-5 Bouldin (13.7-3.9-3.2), the 6-5 Gray (9.3) and the 6-8 Downs (9.1-4.3). Up front, it's the 6-11 Heytvelt (14.8-6.7) and the 6-11 Daye (13.1-6.9). Now everyone knows Gonzaga's record. The Bulldogs have won eight of the last 10 WCC tourney titles, losing only to San Diego in the 2003 and 2008 title games. With its 94-59 win on Sunday over Santa Clara, Gonzaga has now reached the WCC championship game for a 12th straight time! St Mary's last won the WCC tourney title back in 1997 and the Gaels have lost 25 of the last 28 meetings in this series, including six times in the WCC tourney. So why will it be any different tonight? It may not be but I still want the points. Guard Patty Mills (18.4) broke two bones in his right hand back on Jan 29, when St Mary's lost 69-62 at Gonzaga (Gaels were in control, prior to the injury). That loss saw the Gales go on a 1-4 slide but since winning on Feb 14, St Mary's has won six straight, including last night's 10-point win over Portland, in which Mills returned. The sophomore guard scored 12 points last night and I expect him to be even better tonight. St Mary's doesn't have Gonzaga's depth but in the 6-11 Samhan (13.6-9.3) and the terrific 6-7 Simpson (13.6-120.8), the Gaels can 'hang' with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga connected on a season-high 13 three-pointers last night and led by as many as 40 points. However, leading scorer Josh Heytvelt was held to a season-low three points and is averaging just 8.7 PPG over his last three games. Maybe I'm "spitting into the wind," but I'm taking the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
OTTAWA -1.5 (+150) over Toronto
Ya think the Leaf are out of gas right now as they have gone into OT in 7 of their last 9 games. Since a stretch o 7 straight OT games the Leafs have been able to manage just 3 games in their last 2 games. Now they must travel to Ottawa and face a team that has won by 2 goals or more in each of their last 7 wins. The Sens would also like revenge for a 43 OT loss to these same Leafs back on Feb 28th. Ottawa has scored 10 goals in their last 2 games and are facing a toronto team that allows 3.68 gpg on the road. The Sens will win this one easily.
2 UNIT PLAY
Ottawa/ Toronto Over 6
1 UNIT PLAY
Carolina -142 over NY Rangers
3 UNIT PLAY
Lakers/ Portland Over 202
The Over is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games, while the Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, plus the Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Portland. In their last 19 games the Lakers have had 7 games with an OU line of 209 or less and the Over has hit in 5 of those games. During that stretch the Lakers have played 12 road games and the Over has gone 7-4-1 in those games, with an average OU line of 217.6. Laker road games have averaged 210.6 ppg overall and 219.1 ppg in their last 12 away from home. The Lakers offense has been top ntch this year as they are averaging 108.7 ppg overall and 108.3 ppg on the road. Tonight they will be facing a Portland team that allows just 95.2 ppg on the year, but they are just 22nd in the league in defensive FG% (46.5%), while the Lakers come in 4th in ffensive FG% (47.6%). Portland has allowed just 94 ppg in their last 5 games, but 48% shoting i that stretch. The Portlands offense has not been spectaular this year, as they average just 98.9 ppg overall, but at home this team does score 102. 4 ppg and the Lakers are not a great defensive team as they allow 100.4 ppg overall and 102.3 ppg on the road. LA also allows teams to shoot for 48.6% in their road games. No reason to think that both teams can't post over 100 points in this one and that should give us a comfortable win on the Over.
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Denver Under 198
The Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games playing on 0 days rest, while the Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. This has been a high scoring series of late, but I see a reversal tonight. The strong Denver offense has been having problems scoring of late, as they are averaging just 97 ppg in their last 6 games. Now they face a Houston team that is very strong defensively as they have allowed just 94.9 ppg overall and 92.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Denver just alllowed Sacramento 114 points, but they have still allowed just 96.7 ppg in their last 6 games. The Rockets offense has come alive of late, but this is still a team that averages just 97.4 ppg on the road. I see his game being played in the LOW 190's at best.
ATLANTA +1.5 over New Orleans
1 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT +1.5 over Orlando
The Pistons are playing much better without The Answer and they should be able to grab this win vs an Orlando team that may have left it all on the court in their big win over the Celtics yesterday.