SPORTS ADVISORS
Houston (43-25, 32-35-1 ATS) at New Orleans (41-24, 28-35-2 ATS)
Two teams coming off ugly offensive performances hook up at New Orleans Arena in a key Southwest Division clash with the Hornets hosting the Rockets.
Houston held an opponent under 96 points for the fourth time in five games on Saturday, but came up short 88-85 to the Spurs as a 2½-point home chalk. The Rockets have shot 46.6 percent over their last five games – which is higher than their season shooting percentage (45.1) – but have averaged just 92.4 points per game during this stretch, failing to reach 100 points in any contest after hitting triple digits in four of its previous five.
The Hornets were held to 79 points for the second time in four games on Saturday, falling at Chicago 97-79 to end a four-game road trip at 2-2 SU and ATS. New Orleans has held 10 consecutive teams to 98 points or less, yielding just 91.6 ppg during this stretch. However, the Hornets have scored only 90.5 ppg in their last four and have scored in triple figures just three time in their last 10 outings.
Houston has followed up an 11-2 SU run by dropping two of its last three, both at home, and the Rockets are 2-4 ATS in their last six after going 7-2 ATS in the previous nine. Meanwhile, despite Saturday’s blowout loss to the Bulls, New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11, and it has bounced back from a 2-8 ATS slump by cashing in five of its last seven outings.
The home team has held serve in this divisional rivalry in the last four meetings both SU and ATS. In two clashes this season, the Rockets rolled 91-82 as a two-point home chalk on Nov. 15, then New Orleans scored its own nine-point win six weeks later, prevailing 88-79 as a 2½-point home chalk. The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, including 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in the Big Easy.
Also in this rivalry, the favorite has covered in the last four after the underdog had gotten the money in each of the previous five meetings (including four outright upsets).
The Rockets are on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 on the highway, 13-3 after a non-cover, 5-2 as a road underdog and 13-5 as an underdog of less than five points, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 1-5 within the Southwest Division, 1-4 versus the Western Conference, 6-14 when playing on one day of rest and 1-4 on Monday. The Hornets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight divisional contests and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when laying less than five points, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-4 on Monday, 1-4 after a SU defeat and 4-9 after an ATS loss.
The under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles in this series and 4-1 in the last five clashes at New Orleans Arena. Also, the Rockets are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in divisional play, 4-1 as an underdog, 6-1 after a SU defeat and 16-5 after a non-cover. Finally, the under is 10-3 in the Hornets’ last 13 divisional contests and 7-2-1 in its last 10 on Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DAVE COKIN
HOUSTON ROCKETS / NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Hornets are back home off a road trip and have a tough game tonight as they host Houston. The home team has been getting the best of it recently when these teams meet, but I like the way the Rockets are trending right now and they fit a pretty solid revenge dog angle. Lean is to the Rockets plus the points.
JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ROCKETS / NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take UNDER
The Rockets got a good lesson in power defense by the rival Spurs. The Spurs made just enough so that San Antonio held on to beat the Rockets, 88-85, Saturday. "That's a difference between a great team and just a good team," Yao Ming said. "We still need to improve that." They already know about applying defense, ranked 7th in the NBA allowing 94.8 ppg. The team they play here, New Orleans, is ranked 4th allowing 93.5 ppg. The Hornets are on a 7-3 run under the total. The last time these teams met, it went under the total by 17 points. Look for plenty of defense, play the Rockets/Hornets under the total.
CAJUN SPORTS
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Selection: 2* Oklahoma City Thunder +5
The Spurs fresh off their win at Houston on Saturday look to complete the sweep of their mini two-game road trip with a win in Oklahoma City over the Thunder on Monday night. That sounds simple enough especially when you have a Spurs team that is 44-21 SU on the season facing an Oklahoma City team that is 18-48 SU. The Spurs may very well get their sweep but our interest of course is whether they can cover the number or not. This is a different matter altogether when facing a team that has covered six of their last eight overall and posted a record of 38-26 ATS on the season. As we mentioned in our latest article (NBA ATS Countdown Issue 10) this Thunder team ranks fourth in the league against the spread and are solid when installed as a home underdog going 15-8-1 ATS this season. The Thunder are 15-5 ATS after losing SU and going ‘under’ in their last game, if they are at home their record is perfect at 5-0 ATS. We also note that NBA teams coming off a SU/ATS loss and going ‘under’ on the road in their last game have posted a record of 56-36-3 ATS in their next contest. If they are a conference underdog in that situation their record is 45-24-1 ATS and if they are a home conference underdog their record improves to 20-8 ATS. The Spurs qualify in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against NBA teams coming in off a SU/ATS win on the road in their last game and now installed as a conference road favorite, these teams are 6-16 ATS this season. We will take the points here as the Thunder keep this one well within the number.
Graded Selection: 2* Oklahoma City Thunder 98 San Antonio Spurs 100
Bob Harvey
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.0
Recent trends would suggest this might be a good night to back the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder.
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and is 6-2 against the number in its last eight games against the Thunder. The Spurs also boast a healthy 19-13 -1 ATS record on the road. San Antonio won the first series meetings 109-105 but failed to cover as lofty 16.5 point favorites.
Oklahoma City has proven to be a “consistent cash cow” for their backers. OKC is 20-12 at home ATS and 20-12 on the road vs. the number. The home team in this series is 13-4-1 at home vs. the number and the Thunder are 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. the Southwest Conference. OKC has gotten Kevin Durant and Jeff Green healthy and back in the line-up. Rookie Russell Westbrook figures to make Spurs guard Tony Parker work for every point tonight.
San Antonio is coming off a “knock down, drag out” affair against Houston on Saturday night and could be primed for a let down in this situation. Plus something has got to give in this spot. The Spurs try for their fifth win in six games while the Thunder will be after their fourth straight win at home.
If your looking for a totals lean, consider that San Antonio allows just 93.4 points per game and will be facing an Oklahoma City club that hasn’t reached 100 in its last eight games.
There are two ways to go tonight. The strongest play is to take the Thunder +5. You can expect a cover if not an outright win. Also, take a look at the UNDER which is currently listed at 189
Jimmy The Moose
Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Nashville Predators
Both team's are in the playoff race in a very close Western Conference. The Predators are tied for 8th place while the Kings are only 5-points back in the standings making this a big game for both team's. Nashville has won 7 of their last 10 games while the Kings recent 5-11 run have dropped them in the standings. The Predators have won their last 7 games vs. a Western Conference opponent. In their last 6 games following a win they are 5-1. The Kings are 7-15 in their last 22 games following a day off. The Kings are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings with Nashville. Play on the Nashville Predators -.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the points with the Rockets.
This really is a bottom of the barrel type of a play on this very slim pickings Monday but in a small small play I'll take whatever I can with Yao, Artest and the visiting Rockets today.
New Orleans is very good as Chris Paul is a total superstar but the Hornets are back home after the four game road trip and after just losing in two of the games including looking pathetic on Saturday night in Chicago against the mediocre at the very best Bulls I'll take my chances with Houston.
That first game back home after a road trip is never easy and to now have to bang with a beast in Yao down low will not help. Also Peja Stojakovic is banged up and even if the guy is not what he used to be he still can shoot and open things up down low.
The Rockets will clamp down a bit with the defense and keep this thing tight. Houston has covered five of seven and are feeling pretty good about themselves, even with that last tough loss to the Spurs.
I expect this thing to be ugly and will grab the handful of points and take my chances
Chris Jordan
San Antonio -5 at OKLAHOMA CITY
The Spurs might not catch the Lakers to nab the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, but they certainly are playing well enough to close the season with enough momentum to be a thorn throughout the postseason.
And it's games like these that bolster the momentum, as there should be no disappointing setbacks. With one of the league's best road teams heading into Oklahoma City to fave a rater brutal home team, I don't have any problem laying the cheap price with the Spurs.
San Antonio has posted a rock solid 21-12 mark on the road this season and the Thunder are a less-than impressive 13-20 at home. What matters most though for us, is San Antonio's 20--13 ATS mark with a suitcase in hand.
Now I realize the Thunder are a more than respectable 21-12 ATS at home, but the Spurs are rolling right now, having won four of their last five both straight-up and versus the books.
They come into this one after stealing a win and cover in Houston on Saturday night, taking the 88-85 decision as a 2-1/2-point pup. A short jaunt to Okie City isn't as bad for them as the Thunder returning home after a three-game tour included losses in their last two - at Denver and Phoenix.
The Spurs are on spread streaks of 7-1 as a favorite and 10-4 ATS on the road. Take the veterans over the young Thunder, as San Antonio should win this one by double digits.
1♦ SPURS
Bobby Maxwell
Houston at NEW ORLEANS -3'
The Hornets are back home after a four-game trip that has to be deemed a success for them, going 2-2 SU and ATS. It's at home where this team really gets it going and get's the crowd pumped up. We'll play them and lay the chalk tonight as the Rockets arrive in New Orleans.
They have won five straight at home and last we saw them in the Big Easy they were blowing out Oklahoma City 108-90 as a 12 1/2-point favorite back on March 7.
Houston is coming in off an 88-85 loss at home to the Spurs, falling as a 2 1/2-point favorite. They've dropped two of three (SU and ATS) and gone just 2-4 ATS in their last six. The problem is their lack of offense lately, failing to get more than 97 points in any of their last five games.
The home team has won the last four meetings between these two, including both games this season. New Orleans got an 88-79 home win on Dec. 26 as a 2 1/2-point favorite. In fact, the last three times the Rockets have faced the Hornets, they've failed to get more than 91 points in a game.
New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two and they'll get the win and cover tonight. Play the Hornets at home to get it rolling early and win this one by 12.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Sports Gambling Hotline
New Jersey at DENVER -10
With Devin Harris sidelined for the Nets, we have a feeling New Jersey's losing streak is going to continue tonight in Denver.
The Nets have dropped 5 of their last 6, including all 3 on their current 5-game road swing.
New Jersey has also failed the math in all 3 on this current road swing, as the Nets have dipped to just 2-6 against the spread their last 8 on the road.
Denver has got to be thinking about the 114-70 pasting New Jersey laid on them in early February, and we feel quite sure the Nuggets will be out for blood tonight.
The Nuggets are riding a 2-game win streak, and they are 18-14-1 against the spread at home this season.
We say lay the wood, and the Nuggets blast the Nets.
2♦ DENVER
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
LOS (-110) vs NAS
The Kings are coming off a 2-1 OT loss to arguably the best team in the league, the Sharks, and will be looking to exact some revenge on the Predators in front of the home town crowd this evening. Nashville is a horrible 3-5 its last eight after shutting out their opponents in their previous game while the Kings are 10-8 after a division game! Play on LA!
Scott Spreitzer
New Jersey Nets at Denver Nuggets
I'm laying the points with the Nuggets on Monday night. Denver was aboslutely annihilated by the Nets the last time these two teams met. Denver suffered a first half meltdown that saw them draw three technical fouls. They were completely taken out of the game mentally and the Nets went on to post a 114-70 win. In fact, it was Denver's worst loss in 12 years. Tonight, besides having big-time revenge on their mind, the Nuggets are also a rested team. The Nets are not. New Jersey lost to the LA Clippers last night, their third straight loss both SU and ATS. Not only will the Nets be playing in their second of back-to-back spots, but this will also mark their fourth roadie in six nights. The last time these two met on this floor, the Nuggets won 100-85. I expect a similar margin of victory on Monday.
Play on: Denver
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Hornets
Pretty short number in a pretty important game for a Hornets team that has cashed in nine straight home games during the month of March. They also come off a bad road loss to the Bulls, which sets them up beautifully here as we note New Orleans is a strong 16-4 ATS the game following a double-digit road loss. Home team has held serve in the previous two meetings between these teams this season, winning by exactly nine points each time.
Play on: New Orleans
LT Profits
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Under 189
The Oklahoma City Thunder offense has been sputtering lately, and we do not expect a sudden resurgence vs. the San Antonio Spurs defense tonight, which should key a relatively safe Under.
In fact, the Thunder have now failed to reach 100 points in eight consecutive games. Granted, this is primarily due to Kevin Durant being out for a while, but even he looked noticeably rusty in his first game back Saturday in Phoenix, scoring 22 points while hitting just nine field goals.
If a defenseless team like the Suns can keep him in check, a good defensive team like the Spurs should have no trouble keying on him and daring the Oklahoma City peripheral players to beat them. Thus, the Thunder probably will not reach the already low 94.4 points per game that they are averaging over the last five games.
The Spurs are playing their customarily good defense this season allowing just 93.4 points per game overall, but they have been downright stingy over their last five games, allowing a miniscule 89.6 points per contest with three of those opponents failing to exceed 86 points. Also, the Spurs are still without Manu Ginobili, meaning they are losing some nice offensive production off the bench.
Look for a plodding affair here with these teams struggling to score much more than 180 combined points.
Pick: Spurs/Thunder Under 189
Masterbets
Bet on the BOBCATS to cover the spread
Charlotte has been a good bet at home all season long. Against the spread they have cashed in more than 58% of the time. That number improves a lot when they play poor visiting teams that have losing records, where they have crushed the opposition 9-1 ATS. Toronto comes in as a poor team with a dire 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 games. There might not be great line value here so only a small wager is recommended on the Bobcats. They'll win straight up but might struggle to defy a big spread. Still, the numbers favor them here.