SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
Kentucky (21-13, 14-14-1 ATS) at Creighton (27-7, 14-13-1 ATS)
Creighton opened NIT play with Wednesday’s 73-71 come-from-behind victory over Bowling Green, never threatening to cover as a 12½-point home favorite. The Bluejays trailed the Falcons by as many as 14 points in the first half and were down eight with 8½ minutes to play, yet managed to pull out their 12th victory in their last 13 games. However, they’ve now failed to cash in four straight contests and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last six (1-3 ATS at home).
Kentucky eliminated UNLV 70-60 in its first-round NIT contest Tuesday, covering as a 7½-point home favorite. The Wildcats, playing in their first NIT in three decades after 17 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, saw a 20-point second-half lead dwindle to three with four minutes to go, but held off the Rebels to earn just their second victory in the last seven games (2-5 ATS).
Creighton is 16-2 SU at home this season and is on pointspread runs of 10-3 on Monday, 8-3-1 as a favorite of less than seven points and 4-1 as a home chalk of less than seven points. On the downside, in addition to their 0-4 ATS slump, the Bluejays have failed to cover in four straight games at home, four straight as a favorite and four straight against winning teams.
With the spread-cover against UNLV, Kentucky has now cashed in six of its last seven non-conference outings. Otherwise, though, the Wildcats are in ATS funks of 4-10 overall, 0-4 on the road, 1-4 after a SU victory, 4-9 against teams with a winning record and 0-5 following a spread-cover.
Kentucky has stayed under the total in four straight games, but the over is 5-2 in the team’s last seven on Monday. Also, Creighton is on “over” streaks of 40-19-1 overlal, 23-7-1 at home, 4-0 in non-conference play and 28-11-1 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CREIGHTON and OVER
Davidson (27-7, 13-16-2 ATS) at St. Mary’s (27-6, 15-12-1 ATS)
Two days after getting snubbed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, St. Mary’s shook off any lingering disappointment in routing Washington State 68-57 on Tuesday, cashing as a 4½-point home favorite. Star point guard Patty Mills (27 points) had by far his best game since returning from a broken wrist that sidelined him for six weeks.
The Gaels are on an 8-1 SU run, the lone setback being an embarrassing 83-58 loss to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game on March 9 – a defeat that likely cost them a second straight trip to the Big Dance.
Davidson went on the road Tuesday and – behind superstar guard Stephen Curry’s game-high 32 points – took out South Carolina 70-63 as a three-point road underdog. It was the Wildcats’ first game since March 8, when they lost to Charleston 59-52 as a 9½-point favorite in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament.
The Gaels are only 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover. On the bright side of the pointspread perspective, St. Mary’s is on ATS runs of 7-2 at home, 7-2-1 in non-league action, 5-1 versus winning teams and 5-0 as a home chalk of less than seven points. For the season, St. Mary’s is 13-1 SU on its home floor.
With its upset win at South Carolina, Davidson ended a 1-6-1 ATS slump. The Wildcats, who made a stunning run to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight last year, are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. Other than that, though, the ‘Cats carry impressive ATS trends of 12-4 in non-conference play, 36-15-1 on the highway, 14-3 as an underdog and 8-1 as a road pup. Davidson is 15-4 SU in road/neutral-site contests.
It’s been all “unders” for Davidson lately, including 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in non-conference play, 4-0 as an underdog and 9-1 against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. Conversely, St. Mary’s is on “over” stretches of 7-1 at home and 5-0 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Denver (45-25, 36-33-1 ATS) at Phoenix (38-31, 28-39-2 ATS)
With its playoff hopes fading fast, the Suns find themselves in a must-win scenario when they host the Nuggets, who continue to cling to first place in the competitive Northwest Division.
Despite an ongoing 4-0 SU and ATS hot streak, Phoenix still sits 3½ games behind Dallas for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot. The Suns’ current run, which follows a six-game SU slide (1-5 ATS), has featured four consecutive double-digit blowouts of Oklahoma City (106-95 at home), Golden State (154-130 on the road), Philadelphia (126-116 at home) and Washington (128-96 at home).
Denver, which leads the Northwest Division by one game over the Blazers and 1½ games over the Jazz, has won five in a row, but four of those victories came at home and the other was a two-point win at lowly Memphis. The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings, and prior to winning in Memphis, they had lost six consecutive roadies (1-5 ATS).
Going back to Feb. 17 – the first game under new coach Alvin Gentry – Phoenix has scored more than 110 points in 13 of 18 games, averaging 123.7 ppg in the last six. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have tallied 107 or more throughout its five-game win streak, averaging 113.4 ppg during this stretch.
The home team has owned this rivalry recently, going 8-0 SU and ATS in the past eight meetings and 9-1 SU and ATS in the past 10, with the winner covering the spread in each of those contests. Going back further, the host has cashed in 20 of the last 28 clashes. In two battles this year, Phoenix prevailed 108-101 as a 5½-point favorite on Dec. 20 and the Nuggets returned the favor with a 119-113 overtime victory as a three-point chalk on Jan. 15, as the favorite is now 7-0 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
In addition to pointspread slumps of 2-5 overall and 1-6 on the road, the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Western Conference and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover, but they have cashed in four of their last five versus Pacific Division foes.
Phoenix’s pointspread runs include 4-0 overall, 9-3-1 at home, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 5-1 as a chalk, but the Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight on Monday and 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 after a spread-cover.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for the Nuggets overall, 5-2 for the Nuggets on the road, 13-6 for Phoenix overall, 7-3 for Phoenix as a favorite and 9-4 for Phoenix after a SU win. Lastly, the over is 7-1 in the last eight series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
Philadelphia (35-33, 31-35-2 ATS) at Portland (44-26, 37-33 ATS)
The 76ers conclude a five-game West Coast road trip tonight with a stop at the Rose Garden to face the Blazers, who are returning home after their own five-game Eastern Conference journey.
Philadelphia’s trip began with Tuesday’s shocking 94-93 buzzer-beating victory at the Lakers as a 9½-point road underdog. However, the Sixers followed that with two blowout defeats at Phoenix (126-116) and Golden State (119-111) before going to Sacramento last night and won 112-100 as a 5½-point favorite. Despite that rout, Philly has failed to cover in 12 of its last 18 games (4-7 ATS on the road), and the SU winner is 15-2 ATS in the team’s last 17 outings.
The Blazers went 3-2 SU out East, capping things with Saturday’s 96-84 rout of Milwaukee as a three-point road favorite. After failing to cover in their first game on the trip at Atlanta (98-80 loss as a four-point underdog), Portland went 4-0 ATS in the last four. The Blazers have been one of the NBA’s most dominant home teams, going 28-6 SU and 21-13 ATS, including 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS in the last 14.
Philadelphia has scored in triple digits in nine of its last 13 games, but it has allowed 98 or more in 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, Portland has scored 96 points or fewer seven times in its last 10 games, but its defense has stepped up, surrendering an average of just 92.9 ppg in its last nine, with just one of those foes scoring in triple figures (New Jersey tallied exactly 100).
The 76ers hammered the Blazers 100-79 as a two-point home underdog in the season’s first meeting on Jan. 14. The host swept the two-game series last year, with the Blazers cruising 97-72 as a six-point home favorite, and the home squad is 5-2 SU and ATS in the past seven. Finally, the SU winner has gotten the cash in each of the last 10 clashes.
Portland is riding ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 9-3 when playing on one day of rest and 6-0 on Monday. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when catching between five and 10½ points, but otherwise the 76ers are in ATS droughts of 6-12 overall, 2-5 as a pup, 2-4 on the road, 1-6 on Monday, 2-7 against the Western Conference and 0-5 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 8-4-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2 when facing teams with a winning record, 5-1-1 as a road pup and 23-7-2 on Monday, but the Sixers have now topped the total in each of their last three games on their road trip and five of their last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on “over” stretches of 5-2-1 at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-0 when playing on Monday.
Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these teams have stayed low, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
Marc Lawrence
Play On: New York Knicks
The Knicks return to the Garden to host the Magic in a right back revenge rematch from a 110-103 loss at Orlando Saturday night. With New York 30-19 ATS as a dog this season, including 18-9 when taking points from an opponent off a win, and the Magic looking dead ahead to a showdown against defending champion Boston we'll grab the points with the Knicks as a home dog tonight.
Dave Cokin
Kentucky @ Creighton
Play: Creighton -2
Kentucky held off UNLV's late charge in their opening round NIT clash. Now the Wildcats must hit the road and they're facing the type of team that figures to give them big problems. Kentucky has had some real turnover issues on the road, and Creighton is going to press them all over the court. The Bluejays will also maintain a frenetic rotation and I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats wear down as this game progresses. I'm also not sure how much Kentucky cares about this contest, while the Omaha faithful should keep the Bluejays fired up. Cheap number gets me on Creighton is a game they should win and cover.
Brad Diamond
Play on: Kentucky over Creighton
Granted the SEC has been down this year and in the NCAA Tourney they failed to make the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1989. Here the oddsmakers have short circuited the Wildcats inside game listing them as an underdog against an MVC team? Outside shooters, including Woodfox of Creighton always dangerous to go against, but Meeks and Patterson of KU give the visitor the winning edge.
Big Al Mcmordie
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
At 10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Denver. Both teams come into tonight's game red-hot: The Suns have won four straight, but Denver's even more torrid, with five straight wins. So, something's gotta give tonight. I think the homestanding Suns will be the one to extend its win streak, as the home team has now won eight straight games in this series (covering seven). The 'over' has also cashed seven of eight, so a high-scoring game wouldn't be surprising, either. The Nuggets are a poor 48-73 ATS on the road off back to back wins, and we'll fade Carmelo Anthony & Co. tonight. Lay the points.
Jimmy The Moose
New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: New Jersey Devils
Both team's played yesterday with the Devils losing and the Flyers winning. The Devils are 4-16 in their last 56 games overall. In their last 13 games vs. a divisonal opponent they are 10-3. In their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record they are 17-6. Philadelphia has been playing well but they always struggle vs. the Devils. New Jersey has won the last 3 meetings between the clubs and they are 21-6 in the last 27 meetings between the teams. Play on the New Jersey Devils -.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take Davidson plus the points.
I'm really not going to write all that much here as there is no magic formula to this one. Stephen Curry and the Wildcats had a very impressive win in South Carolina skunking me and everybody else who backed the Gamecocks in that one. I was very impressed with Dell's son once again and even out West will scoop up any points I can get tonight.
Patty Mills is back and St. Mary's did look very good in disposing of a decent enough Washington State team last time out but I'm still not sold on Mills' health or the Gaels as a whole right now. Sure they probably should have been in the Field of 65 as they were very good earlier in the season but they are still far from elite and are up against a team in Bob McKillop's squad that showed last game they not only can play on the road against a quality opponent but want to play in this second tier Tournament.
I do resepct St. Mary's for being a good team and a dangerous group to play against but I am still not convinced they are right and will back the Curry's plus the points!
Bobby Maxwell
Kentucky at CREIGHTON -2
College hoops winner for you tonight as we go with Creighton on the home court against Kentucky.
Creighton went 16-2 at home this season and if not for a complete collapse against Illinois State in the semifinal game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, this team would have been in the Big Dance. Instead the Bluejays are here in the NIT after winning 26 games this season, including 11 in a row before their loss to Illinois State.
In the first round of the NIT they edged Bowling Green 73-71 but came nowhere near covering their 12 1/2-point spread. We can explain that as an angry team that was still pissed they weren't in the Big Dance and didn't come out completely focused. They've since gotten over it and figure they can show how good they are by winning the NIT.
Kentucky lose five of its last six (SU and ATS) and even though they got a home win over UNLV on Tuesday, 70-60, the Rebels were trailing by just three with four minutes to play. Kentucky just doesn't take care of the ball and that is going to cost them tonight at Creighton.
The Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 0-4 on the road, 0-5 after a spread-cover and 4-9 against teams with winning records. The Bluejays are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite of up to 6 1/2-points and 10-3 ATS on Mondays.
We like Creighton to actually have an easy time with this one. The Bluejays come out strong and win this one by 10 at least.
2♦ CREIGHTON
Karl Garrett
Davidson +4 at ST. MARY'S
Your "marquee" matchup tonight in the NIT features Davidson heading to St. Mary's, and the G-Man will grab the points with the Wildcats.
Rare underdog role for Davidson who were able to win outright in the underdog role in round one at South Carolina. That dog win moved the Wildcats to 4-1 this season when catching points.
St. Mary's is on a role, winning 8 of their last 9 straight up, but the Gaels are just 3-4 in that span when laying points.
I am looking forward to watching Stephen Curry, and Patty Mills have at it, as with Curry and Mills you have two of the better guards in all of the nation on the hardwood. The G-Man gives the slight edge to Curry and his 'Cats.
3♦ DAVIDSON
Sports Gambling Hotline
College of Charleston +4 at RICHMOND
For Monday, take the points with the Cougars of Charleston as they play at Richmond in a NIT matchup.
The College of Charleston won their first round matchup on the road at Troy last week, as the Cougars improved to a solid 8-1 against the spread their last 9 road games. Overall on the highway, the Cougars are 11-6 for the season, so we feel there is a strong chance they will not be blown out in this game.
Richmond has been playing well, winners of 4 of their last 4, and 7 of their last 9, but the Spiders are just 4-5 against the spread their last 9 when laying points.
We see this one going right down to the wire, perhaps Charleston stealing it outright.
Play on the Cougars plus the points.
2♦ COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / BOSTON CELTICS
Take OVER
Boston's defense has been lapsing because of injuries, on an 8-3 run over the total. At least the offense is clicking, with production from the bench. Glen Davis was strong again in an 80-77 victory at San Antonio Friday and went for a career-high 24 points in a 105-87 victory over Memphis Saturday. The Celtics were credited with 30 assists against Memphis, led by Rajon Rondo's 10, six from Ray Allen, and four from Stephon Marbury. "Every time we have 30 assists we win," Allen said. The LA Clippers haven't played defense all season, and just went 4 straight games over the total. This is a tough situational spot, the second of a back to back road spot for the Clippers, who are a long way from home. Look for more offense than 'D'. Play the Clippers/Celtics over the total.
Craig Trapp
Kentucky vs. Creighton
Play: Kentucky +2
How bad does Kentucky have to be that they are traveling to Creighton in the NIT and are the underdog at -2. Hard to imagine at the beginning of this season that anyone would have imagined this scenario but never the less it has occurred. The Wildcats started there NIT off with a bang playing at home and winning by 10 points and looking very impressive. Creighton on the other hand did win but had to hold on late barely beating Bowling Green by 2 points. Lets look at records and trend for this match up:
Records:
Creighton 27-7 overall 16-13 ATS
Kentucky 21-13 overall 14-14 ATS
Trends:
Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Creighton is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Creighton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Neither one of these teams have been playing well ATS but you have to think the toughness of the schedule for UK will help them in this match up. Creighton has not faced any player as good as Patrick Paterson and Jody Meeks. UK getting 2 points on the road isn't a lock but definitely think Meeks and Patterson can carry this Wildcat team all the way to Madison Square Gardens. Both of these players are most likely auditioning for the NBA draft as both most likely will leaver early. Creighton will keep it close early but UK is too athletic and the stars will prevail. SCORE UK 73 - CREI 70
Carlo Campanella
Minnesota T'Wolves at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta
Atlanta had their 7 game winning streak snapped at Cleveland, 96-102, but played solid basketball against a Cavs team with only 1 loss at home this season. Atlanta returns home on Monday and drops in class as they host a Minnesota squad that's lost 13 of their last 15 games, including a 3 game losing streak. The Hawks won back in February by 8 in Minnesota and things should only get easier for them this meeting with the home court advantage turned in their favor as they own one of the NBA's best home records at 27-7 this year.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
League's best road team, Orlando, visits the World's Most Famous Arena, tonight to take on a Knicks team that has lost four straight, including a pair of terrible double digit home losses to New Jersey and Sacramento. This year alone, the Magic are an awesome 21-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New York has covered both previous meetings this season, so its time for Orlando to exact revenge.
Play on: Orlando
Frank Jordan
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +8
Philadelphia has won 6 of 10, but is still locked in a battle to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff picture as the bottom 4 teams are all separated by just a handful of games. They are headed to Portland and they road record is sub par as it is 15-19, but are coming off a road win at Sacramento 112-100. Portland has also won 6 of 10 and is in their own battle in the West as they in the 6th seed. 2-7 teams in the West are separated by just 4 games so a hot streak or a cold streak can make or break ones season. Portland is one of the better teams at home with a 28-6 record. In their only other meeting, that one in Philadelphia, was won by the Sixers 100-79, look for this one to be a closer game with Philadelphia having a shot to win late. Play Philadelphia