LT Profits
Liberty -3
The Liberty Flames are a fun team to watch, as they love to run the floor and often consider defense to be an afterthought, but that approach should be successful at home tonight when they host the James Madison Dukes in the quarterfinals of the College Insider Tournament.
The Flames overwhelmed Rider 79-64 in the first round of this tournament in a game that was not even that close, as Liberty built up a lead of more than 20 points in the first half and maintained it most of the way.
According to the Pomeroy Ratings, Liberty averages 1.043 points per possession on 65.9 possessions per game, mainly because they rank 25 in the entire country in two-point field goal percentage at 52.9 percent. It is no fluke that this team is now 23-11 overall, including 15-2 here at home where the Flames are outscoring their opponents by an average of +6.6 points, more than good enough to cover this small number.
This makes for a tough matchup for James Madison, as they rank 206 in the country in two-point field goal percentage defense at 48.8 percent, and we just do not see how they can slow down the Liberty offense here. Sure, the Dukes have a winning road record of 7-6 straight up, but they do not face any teams that resemble the style that the Flames plays as they come out of the more deliberate Colonial Athletic Association.
Look for the home team to run James Madison off the court here tonight.
Pick: Liberty -3
Tom Freese
Denver at Phoenix
Phoenix is 9-3-1 ATS their 13 home games and they are 4-0 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Suns are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games as favorites and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 Conference games. Denver is 3-7 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 2-6 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games and the underdog is 0-7 ATS the last 7 meetings in this series. PLAY ON PHOENIX -
Nick Parsons
Philadelphia 76'ers +8 @ Portland Trailblazers
Play: Philly
The Sixers can still salvage a winning record on the five-game West Coast swing with a victory Monday night. They'll go 3-2 if they can beat the Trail Blazers. The Sixers handled Portland 100-79 in the teams' first meeting on Jan. 14. They had 11 three-pointers in the game, held a 16-2 edge in fast-break points and the bench's plus-minus total was plus-69; I expect another similar performance. Portland is a horrible 4-5 ATS against Atlantic division opponents; play on the 76'ers!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on T-Wolves/Hawks UNDER 196
You don't hear much talk about Atlanta's defense, but the Hawks are allowing just 92.7 ppg at home this season. The T-Wolves has been held under the century mark in 11 of their last 13 games and I expect the offense to really struggle tonight, playing back-to-back against a fresh Atlanta team. These teams met in Minnesota on Feb. 4 and combined for just 180 points. The Under is 10-3 in Timberwolves last 13 overall and 11-5-1 in Timberwolves last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 Monday games, 8-1 in Hawks last 9 home games, and 11-4 in Hawks last 15 games following a SU loss. Bet the Under.
DUNKEL
Denver at Phoenix
The high-scoring Nuggets (113.4 ppg over last five games) look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is just 8-19 ATS against good offensive teams (99+ ppg). Denver is the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4).
Game 610-602: Minnesota at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.418; Atlanta 122.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+11 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.651; Washington 112.185
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 605-606: Memphis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 110.135; Miami 121.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 194
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Over
Game 607-608: Orlando at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.511; New York 116.336
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 5 1/2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-5 1/2); Under
Game 609-610: LA Clippers at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 109.117; Boston 122.613
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13 1/2; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 611-612: Denver at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.458; Phoenix 121.620
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 242
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 237
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4); Over
Game 613-614: Philadelphia at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.648; Portland 124.043
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 7 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-7 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Oakland at Bradley
The Golden Grizzlies (23-12 SU) are 3-0 ATS in lined games this season and face a Bradley team that is 6-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. Oakland is the underdog pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has Bradley favored by just 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3).
Game 615-616: Kentucky at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 62.686; Creighton 64.155
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+2)
Game 617-618: Davidson at St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 58.286; St. Mary's (CA) 66.556
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-4)
Game 625-626: College of Charleston at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 56.773; Richmond 63.253
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 4
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-4)
Game 627-628: Stanford at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 64.967; Wichita State 63.555
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+1)
Game 629-630: Northeastern at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 56.800; UTEP 66.965
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 10
Vegas Line: UTEP by 7
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-7)
Game 631-632: Vermont at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 60.031; Oregon State 64.206
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 4
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-1)
Game 633-634: James Madison at Liberty
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 50.630; Liberty 53.332
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Liberty by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+3 1/2)
Game 635-636: Belmont at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 55.728; Old Dominion 61.187
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 6
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+6)
Game 637-638: Oakland at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 60.427; Bradley 61.975
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Bradley by 3
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3)
Game 639-640: Idaho at Pacific
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.388; Pacific 58.844
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Pacific by 9
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+9)
NHL
Detroit at Calgary
The Red Wings look for their fifth straight win against a Calgary team that has dropped five of its last seven. Detroit is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115).
Game 1-2: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.380; Philadelphia 12.371
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 3-4: Carolina at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.211; Florida 10.887
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-105); Under
Game 5-6: Detroit at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.485; Calgary 10.961
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over
Rocketman
Oakland vs. Bradley
Play: Oakland +3
Oakland comes in with a 23-12 record this year while Bradley is 19-14 on the season. Oakland is 5-1 ATS since 1997 and 4-0 ATS last 3 years when playing in March. Seems they step it up a notch at the end of the season. Oakland is 5-1 ATS since 1997 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Golden Grizzlies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Golden Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Golden Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Golden Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Golden Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Grizzlies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Grizzlies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Braves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Braves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
Alex Smart
Denver Nuggets +3.5
The Denver Nuggets (45-25) enter into this game against the high flying Phoenix Suns(38-31) capable of matching their opponents offensive exploits point for point. The difference maker comes on defense, where they Nuggets allow 100.3 PPG, compared to the Suns 106.4 PPG, which gives us a lot of value backing the road dog in my humble opinion.
The Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season, as they go for their 6th straight win vs a inconsistent Suns side, that despite of 4 straight wins , lost 6 straight earlier this month, and has already lost 13 home games this season.
The Suns are 3-15 ATS against top tier shooting teams ,making 46%+ of their shots this season, losing SU by an average of 7.7 PPG. Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU Record.
Projected score: Denver 121 Phoenix 116
Nelly
Wichita State - over Stanford
Wichita State may be just 17-16 on the year but the Shockers had a miserable start to the season and really are played well in the second half of the season. Wichita State is 11-5 since mid-January including 8-0 at home. On the year the Shockers finished 14-3 S/U at home while Stanford owns a 5-9 S/U mark away from home. The Cardinal had the opposite type of season with a great start to the year only to fade down the stretch when opportunities were there. Stanford is 6-10 in the last 16 games and most of strong ATS numbers were compiled at home. Stanford is uncharacteristically poor defensive team, allowing nearly 70 points per game with opponents shooting close to 48 percent. The Cardinal have lost ATS in six of the last eight road games and this will be a tough match-up as the Shockers are playing much better than the overall numbers indicate.
Drew Gordon
Kentucky at CREIGHTON -2
First and foremost, the line on this contest absolutely BEGS you to side with the visiting Wildcats, which to any good 'Capper, immediately sends up a red flag. Seriously guys, when is an Missouri Valley school like Creighton favored over an SEC team like Kentucky? Truth be told, there's plenty of reasons to side with Creighton here...
We all remember what happened the last time the Blue Jays faced off with an SEC team in the NIT - an 82-54 shellacking at the hands of Florida. But several things are different here: A. That game was in Gainesville, tonight's contest is at the Qwest Center, where the Blue Jays are 16-2 SU on the season. And B. that Florida team was A LOT better than this Kentucky team (but more on that later), and you know damn sure coach Altman has his troops ready to redeem themsleves after last year's embarassment against the SEC.
Speaking of match ups, we all know the Wildcats are led by Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, but basketball is a team game, and while those two might be the best players on the court, its clear the Jays are better overall team in this one. Besides Meeks and Patterson, Kentucky nothing but piss-poor point guard play, and very average frontline players. Creighton on the other hand, is a balanced offense, led by their backcourt duo of Woodfox & Stinnett. Despite being the smaller school, Lawson Jr. and the rest of the Jays frontline match up well with the struggling Wildcats frontcourt (minus of course Patterson).
Bottom line, I cannot in good conscience allow my customers to fall for this obvious trap. Granted, this will be a close contest, but Kentucky's sporadic road play (lost 5 of L6 away games SUATS) and lack of depth behind Meeks and Patterson spell their doom against a balanced, well-coached Jays team playing at home in this one.
Take Creighton over Kentucky in this college hoops match up.
3♦ CREIGHTON
Robert Homyak
Davidson vs. Saint Marys CA
Play: Saint Marys CA -4.5
Stephen Curry dropped 32 points to lead Davidson past South Carolina 70-63 in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament last Tuesday night.
Davidson cashed as 3.5-point road underdogs as the game played under the 152-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Patrick Mills swished 27 points to lead St. Mary's over Washington State 68-57 in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament last Tuesday night.
St. Mary's covered as 4-point home favorites as the game played over the 120-point total listed by oddsmakers
Davidson Wildcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. St. Mary’s Gaels are on an 8-1 SU run. St. Mary’s is on ATS runs of 7-2 at home, 7-2-1 in non-league action, 5-1 versus winning teams and 5-0 as a home chalk of less than seven points. For the season, St. Mary’s is 13-1 SU at home.
Ben Burns
Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State
Stanford has admittedly fared very well in non-conference play. However, that Cardinal is still just 5-9 on the road. Tonight, they'll take on a Wichita State team which is playing very well and which is a perfect 6-0 ATS its last six tournament games. Consider laying the small number with the home team.
Dennis Macklin
Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State
Not really sure why the Shockers are not favored here. Stanford is 12-0 outside the PAC 10 but the road wins are against Yale, Air Force, and Santa Clara. Witchita State has won eight straight home and rocking as the Shockers are in fact happy to be here and rarely get visits from members of the "Power" Conferences. Can't imagine the Tree wants to be here at all so the homies in a pick'em gets a confident nod. Take the Shockers.
Larry Ness
Stanford at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State
Stanford lost head coach Trent Johnson to LSU, the Lopez twins, Brook (19.3-8.2) and Robin (10.2-5.7), to the NBA plus two solid role players, Finger (5.9-4.4) and Washington (4.4-4.1) from last year's 28-win, Sweet 16 team. Johnny Dawkins left Coach K's bench to take over at Stanford, getting his first head coaching gig. The Cardinal opened 10-0 this year but struggled in the Pac 10, going 6-12. The Cardinal avenged two regular season losses to Ore St in the Pac 10 tourney but then lost 85-73. Goods (15.7-3.3) and PG Johnson (7.0-4.3 APG) are a solid guard duo, with 6-7 swingman Fields (12.6-6.4), the 6-8 Hill (13.6-5.5) and the 6-8 Owens (7.4-3.7) rounding out the starting-five. The 6-10 Paul (4.2) adds some depth up front, while guards Green (5.9) and Brown (5.4) contribute in the backcourt. Stanford opened the CBI tourney with an impressive home 96-76 home win over Boise St last Wednesday, as Hill had 18-6, Fields 16-4-4 and Green, a surprising 19. The win upped Stanford's non-conference mark this year to 12-0. All that said, I DON'T like the team's chances here in Wichita. Gregg Marshall, of Winthrop fame, took over the Wichita program last year and went just 11-20 (4-14 in MVC play). However, the Shockers, despite losing four starters from that team, have recovered from a slow start. The Shockers improved to 8-10 in MVC play this year and after winning one game in TY's MVC tourney, lost a heartbreaking 63-62 game to Creighton (league's co-champs), dropping them to 16-16 on the year. However, the CBI offered them a bid and the Shockers opened with an 84-73 home win last Wednesday, over Buffalo. It marked the team's NINTH straight home win (14-3 on the year!). JUCO transfer Hannah (11.4-4.2 APG) teams with freshman Murry (11.0-3.7-2.6) in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Durley (8.4-4.3) and the 6-7 Clemente (7.6-7.3) have both put health issues behind them this year, to play very well in the frontcourt. Stutz (4.3-2.7), a 7-0 freshman, hasn't been "all that," but he'll help out inside against the Cardinal. Marshall did a terrific job at Winthrop, leading the Eagles to seven NCAA appearances from 1999-2007, so the man knows just a little about tourney play. His advantage over the inexperienced Dawkins is HUGE and as mentioned, the Shockers have won NINE straight at home. Make that 10 in a row after tonight. Take Wichita St.
Mike Anthony
Vermont vs. Oregon State
Play: Vermont +102
Sure having to travel ‘cross country could pose a problem for the Vermont Catamounts, but it is not like they are playing a team that is all that impressive in the Beavers.There is no way a 14-17 school should be playing in any postseason tournament, and even though State dumped Houston 49-45 at home to open the CBI, I don’t think they will be able to duplicate that effort tonight. Vermont came up with a solid outright win at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first round, as they are now 24-8 for the season. The Catamounts have been off-line more often then not this year, but they are 4-1 against the spread in games that have been lined this season. Go with Vermont as they have something to prove against a PAC-10 school.
Jack Jones
Boston Celtics -15 over LA Clippers
It's tough to lay this many points in the NBA no matter who is playing, which is why I'm playing it as a free pick instead of a stronger premium. The Clippers are just 7-27 this year on the road while Boston is 28-6, but the key to this team has been the return of Kevin Garnett to the lineup. I know he's only been playing about a quarter and a half the last two games, but just his presence on the floor has motivated the other Celtics to get after it. Having him back tonight will help Boston slow down Zach Randolph, who to his credit has been playing well for the Clippers. LA though hasn't won on the road since February 7th and that is playing some bad teams like the 24 point loss at Toronto, by 18 at Detroit, by 12 at the Kings, by 40 at the Suns, 29 in Portland, etc. LA has gone 0-6 ATS their last six road games as a double digit underdog while Boston is 8-2 ATS coming off a double digit win.