Yankee Capper
NHL
Detroit Red Wings -115
Detroit/Calgary Over 6
NBA
Chicago/Washington Over 210
Miami Heat -9
NCAA HOOPS
Kentucky/Creighton Over 139.5
Bradley -3
John Martin
1 Unit on New York Knicks +6.5
New York simply has to be tired of losing to Orlando, and I feel like tonight they will come out with the attitude that enough is enough. Since February 25th, the Knicks have a 5-point home loss and a 7-point road loss to the Magic. Their last meeting was on Saturday with the Magic winning at home 110-103. I always like taking the team that lost their first meeting in these home-and-home series. Now the Knicks return home to Madison Square Gardens where they have posted both winning SU & ATS records this season. New York doesn’t mind playing on little rest either, as the Knicks are 14-3 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Knicks have also been great at getting revenge, as New York is 17-6 ATS revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Cash in with the Knicks as the underdog.
Black Widow
1* on Miami Heat -9
Miami takes it to Memphis and wins by double-digits Monday. The Heat are fighting for the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference to gain home-court in the first round. This team is 24-11 at home this year, while Memphis is a putrid 5-28 on the road. The Grizzlies are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the road this season. After losing at Memphis in their first meeting, the Heat will not take this team lightly as they come in focused and ready to go. Memphis is 1-8 in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games by double-digits. The Grizzlies are 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Memphis is a terrible 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Take Miami and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on NY Knicks +6.5
The Magic just beat the Knicks at home Saturday and gets them again in the 2nd game of this home and home. With the Boston Celtics up next, I expect the Magic to get caught looking ahead here against a Knicks team that will be out to avenge its Saturday loss to Orlando. NY lost at home to the Magic by 5 in the first meeting this season on Feb. 25 to set up a double revenge situation. NY is 17-6 ATS revenging 2 straight losses where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season, winning these games by an average score of 106.7 to 105.4. We'll take the points.
Info Plays
3* on Stanford +1.5
Reasons why Stanford covers the spread:
1.) Stanford is the better team playing from the better conference tonight in the Pac-10, and though they will playing on the road the Cardinal should have no problem taking care of mediocre Wichita State from the Missouri Valley. Stanford has been underrated all season with an 19-13 SU & 18-11 ATS records. The Cardinal should not be receiving points tonight and it’s just an added gift that they are.
2.) Common opponents. These teams have played 2 of the same teams this year. They were Texas Tech and Northern Arizona. Stanford beat Texas Tech 111-66 while Wichita State lost to the Red Raiders 69-72. Against Northern Arizona the Cardinal beat them 66-57 and Wichita State also won 58-53. So Stanford’s average margin of victory in those 2 games was 27.0 PPG while Wichita State won by just 1.0 PPG. This is a key factor when looking at teams in these postseason tournaments and the common opponent edge clearly goes to Stanford.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (STANFORD) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after a win by 15 points or more. This is a 73-31 ATS System hitting 70.2% over the last 5 seasons. Bet Stanford on the road.
King Creole
Wichita St / Stanford Over 135
Both teams busted out with EXTREMELY high-scoring results in their first game of the CBI Tourney, and we'll look for the point-fest to continue on Monday night. Stanford's OU Line in their game versus Boise State was 149... and the game ended up going OVER by 23 big points in their 96-76 win. Wichita State's OU line in their game versus Buffalo was 123.5... and the game ended up going OVER by 33.5 big points in their 84-73 win.
STANFORD enters tonight's game on a 6-1 O/U run in their last 7 games. And the OU margins haven't even been close. Average combined point totals during that stretch are 151.0 PPG. When installed as an UNDERDOG, Stanford is on a 2-year run in which they have gone 24-5 O/U. That includes 12-2 O/U as road dogs of 6.5 < points..
WICHITA STATE enters tonight's game on an overall 7-2 O/U run and 5-1 O/U run in their last 6 home games. Since February 1st, 'HOMERS' have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Average OU margin in that stretch is +14.8 PPG.... giving us a nice DOUBLE-DIGIT OU 'cushion'. Shockers are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 FAVORITE roles... and 5-1 O/U vs non-conference competition.
In last year's INAUGURAL season of the CBI Tournament, 2ND ROUND games averaged 148.8 PPG... and went 3-1 O/U in the process. In this season's 1ST ROUND, #1 SEEDS (like STANFORD) went 3-1 O/U as well.
Tommy the Swami
Boston - 15.5
Boston playing with revenge for an embarrassing loss as a double digit road favorite at LA less than a month ago. The Celts have proven they will show mercy at the Garden,as they have covered 4 of their 5 in Boston the last 13 seasons as a 15 to 18 pt fav. This could get ugly.LAC -1-12 ATS off BB non-conf gms- 8-21 ATS vs Atlantic Div - 11-34 ATS playing their 3rd gm in 4 days Bost 40-20 ATS off win by 15+ pts
Jrtips
NUGGETS vs. SUNS
The Denver Nuggets(45-25) open their final road trip of the season playing some of their best basketball of the season, and looking to increase their Northwest Division lead. Now the Nuggets have to play at the US Airways Center tonight facing a surging Phoenix Suns team that's won eight straight home games in the series. Denver owns a one-game lead over Portland in the division and will be going for its season-best sixth consecutive victory. During their winning streak, J.R. Smith is scoring 21.6 points per game and shooting 47.4 percent from 3-point range after he scored a season-high 40 points in the Nuggets' 116-105 win over Washington on Friday. In Denver's two matchups with Phoenix this season, Smith is averaging 21.0 points on 40.0 percent shooting (8-of-20) from beyond the arc. Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony missed the Nuggets' 119-113 overtime win over the visiting Suns on Jan. 15 with a broken bone in his right hand. Nuggets forward Nene is averaging 18.5 points and 14.5 rebounds versus Phoenix this season and low-post mate Chris Andersen, is averaging 6.8 points, 8.1 boards and 3.1 blocks in his last 13 games. Phoenix (38-31) defeated Washington 128-96 on Saturday and has won a season-best four in a row to keep pressure on Dallas, which holds a 3 1/2-game lead for the final playoff spot. Shaquille O'Neal had 13 points against the Wizards. O'Neal sat out the Jan. 15th loss to Denver in a night off, but averaged 16.3 points and 13.0 rebounds in his previous four games against the Nuggets.Steve Nash has 13 double-doubles in his last 17 games versus Denver, averaging 18.5 points with 11.1 assists during that stretch. These two teams both strive playing that up-style type of basketball as they have athletic scorers on both sides of the ball. Both teams are playing well and need tonight's win for the playoff race. These teams scored 232 points without the services of Shaquille O'Neal and Carmelo Anthony so with these two star players in the lineup tonight, there will be no shortage of points.TAKE OVER 237
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ Bradley Braves
(638) Bradley Braves (-3)
The Braves offense struggle in their opening round win against Austin Peay, but that was understandable considering they had an eleven day lay off before that game. Look for Bradley's Chris Roberts and Dodie Dunson to do a good job on shutting down Oakland's Erik Kangas who is in the top five in the nation in three point shooting. Oakland is prone to defensive lapses and I look for the Braves to take advantage. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-38 (53.1%)