SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL
UTEP (22-12, 19-11-1 ATS) at Oregon State (16-17, 14-14 ATS)
UTEP advanced to the best-of-3 championship round of the second-annual College Basketball Invitational with a trio of victories over Nevada (79-77), Northeastern (75-66) and Richmond (81-69). The Miners cashed in all three games and are now on a 5-1 SU and ATS run, all in March. In Wednesday’s victory at Richmond, UTEP raced out to a 42-33 halftime lead and cruised from there despite shooting just 41.9 percent from the field.
Oregon State has posted three narrow victories in this event, all of them at home. The Beavers rallied to beat Houston 49-45 as a one-point underdog in the opening round, then posted a pair of overtime victories over Vermont (71-70 as a one-point ‘dog) and Pac-10 rival Stanford (65-62 as a four-point pup). Oregon State’s three-game SU and ATS winning streak comes on the heels of an 0-4 SU and ATS slide.
Going back to the regular season, Oregon State has won five consecutive home games both SU and ATS, averaging just 63.2 points per game but giving up only 57 ppg. Meanwhile, UTEP has won and covered three straight on the highway, including two CBI victories, and the Miners are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven as a visitor. For the season, they average 75.8 ppg both overall and on the road while allowing 71.8 ppg overall and 72.5 ppg on foreign courts.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in UTEP’s last seven games overall and 7-0 ATS in its last seven on the highway, and the winner has cashed in 12 straight Oregon State contests, including six in a row in Corvallis.
The Miners come into this contest on ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 7-0-1 in non-conference play, 6-1 on Monday, 4-1 as a road chalk and 5-2 against winning teams. Oregon State’s pointspread streaks include 5-1 at home, 4-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 as a home pup, 8-0 as a home underdog of less than seven points and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
UTEP is on “over” stretches of 5-0 overall, 30-12 on the road, 35-16-1 in non-conference play and 8-1 as a favorite of less than seven points. Conversely, the Beavers are on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-1 at home, 9-3 after a SU win and 7-1 as a home ‘dog.
Game two of this series is scheduled for Wednesday at UTEP.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Orlando (54-18, 45-26-1 ATS) at Miami (39-34, 34-37-2 ATS)
The Heat look to inch closer to clinching a playoff berth when they host the Magic, who have already wrapped up the Southeast Division title and are gunning for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Miami is coming off Saturday’s 102-85 rout of Milwaukee, easily covering as an 8½-point home favorite to end an 0-2 SU and ATS slide (both on the road). The Heat have defended their home court quite well recently, winning six straight (5-1 ATS) and nine of 10 (7-3 ATS) at American Airlines Arena. In their last 11 home games, the Heat are averaging 112 points per game, reaching triple digits nine times.
Orlando makes the short trek to South Beach riding a five-game winning streak and it is 12-2 SU going back to Feb. 28. Like Miami, the Magic’s most recent victory came at home against Milwaukee, a 110-94 triumph as a 12-point chalk on Friday, which ended an 0-3 ATS slump. Stan Van Gundy’s squad is on a 6-2 SU and ATS roll on the highway, and it has topped the century mark in scoring in six of its last nine roadies.
Orlando has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this instate rivalry, going 9-2-1 ATS. The home team has won and covered all three clashes this season, with Miami’s 103-97 victory as a 7½-point home underdog on Jan. 24 ending a 10-game losing skid to the Magic. However, Orlando got revenge in a 122-99 drubbing as a nine-point favorite on Feb. 22, and the Magic’s average margin of victory in its last nine wins against Miami is more than 16 ppg, including four victories by more than 20 points.
Additionally in this rivalry, the host has cashed in four straight meetings and the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight.
The Magic have failed to cover in four straight Monday contests, but otherwise they’re on positive pointspread streaks of 35-17 overall, 57-28-3 on the road, 5-2 against Southeast Division rivals, 10-3-1 when playing after two days off and 8-3-1 when laying less than five points. Meanwhile, other than its 5-1ATS run at home (4-0 last four) and a 14-6 ATS mark in its last 20 games played on one day of rest, Miami is in ATS funks of 3-7 as an underdog, 2-5 as a home pup, 3-8 on Monday, 18-40-3 after a SU win and 3-8 after a spread-cover.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for Miami overall, 4-1 for Miami against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 for Orlando overall, 6-1 for Orlando on Monday, 5-1 for Orlando against Eastern Conference foes and 13-4 for Orlando when playing on two days’ rest. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 8-2-1 for the Heat at home, 7-3 for the Heat when playing on one day of rest, 10-4 for the Magic as a road chalk and 6-1 for the Magic against division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Alex Smart
Calgary Flames -125
The San Jose Sharks have earned home ice advantage through out the upcoming NHL play offs. So tonight against their hosts the Calgary Flames, a semi motivated effort would not come as a complete surprise ,especially considering the amount of nagging injuries the team has been suffering through. With star Patrick Marleau(37 G),limping and expected to miss this tilt, Im betting on the Sharks current sub par road run ( 4-7-3 L/14) including 3 straight losses to be extended vs a Flames side that is a bankroll expanding 25-9-4 on home ice this season.
Final notes & Key Trends: Flames are 8-2 L/10 at home in this series. Flames goalie Miikka Kiprusoff is 6-2-0 with a 2.63 goals-against average and one shutout in his last eight games vs the Sharks.
Play on the Flames
DAVE COKIN
MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS NEW JERSEY NETS
Take: NEW JERSEY NETS
Nothing on the line tonight as the Bucks face the Nets. Both teams are effectively out of the playoff chase, but there is one standout stat here. New Jersey has completely dominated the Bucks over their last ten meetings, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS ledger when hosting Milwaukee. I'll back the series history and go with the Nets tonight.
JIM FEIST
MILWAUKEE BUCKS at NEW JERSEY NETS
Take: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
After playing a string of strong teams, the reeling Bucks catch a break against defenseless New Jersey. "We played hard during that rally and tried to get back in it," said Bucks coach Scott Skiles after a loss to Miami. "We double-teamed the ball a little bit and were able to create some turnovers. It's just that playing from such a deficit again, it's very difficult to come back and beat a good team." New Jersey is on a 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS run. The Bucks are still in this playoff race and will be focused. Play the Bucks.
Big Al Mcmordie
Milwaukee Bucks at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
At 7:35 pm, our member selection is on the New Jersey Nets minus the points over Milwaukee. Although the Bucks have done well off 4+ losses historically (they're 49-27 ATS), it's awfully tough to recommend playing on a team that's 1-11 ATS its last 12 games! Now, with their playoff hopes fading fast, Milwaukee has to travel to New Jersey (another team with scant playoff hopes) to play the Nets, who have beaten the Bucks twice this season. Milwaukee's troubles, of late, can be attributed to its defense. In its current 3-game road trip, the Bucks have given up 100+ points in each game, and allowed their opponents to shoot over 49% from the floor. The Bucks have lost seven straight on the road (1-6 ATS), and we'll fade Scotty Skiles' men here. Take New Jersey.
Tom Freese
New York Knicks at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Under
Utah is 8-0 UNDER their last 8 games as home favorites and they are 14-3 UNDER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-2 UNDER with one day of rest and they are 8-2 UNDER off a straight up win. New York is 8-2 UNDER their last 10 games vs. winning teams and they are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games as underdogs. The Knicks are 10-2 UNDER on Monday and they are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games with the Jazz. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
MATT FARGO
New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz
PICK: New York Knicks
The Knicks are never a strong public play on the road and that is the case once again here as New York is being dogged by double-digits and the public is still favoring Utah on Monday. The Knicks picked up a huge win on Friday over New Orleans at home and then as expected, had a big letdown next time out against the Bobcats in Charlotte. They have now had a day off to regroup and despite a 1-7 record over its last eight games, New York is 4-4 ATS in those games. On the road, the Knicks are 10-25 on the season but are a very respectable 21-13-1 ATS in those games. Most surprising could be the fact that New York has a better record against the Western Conference than it does against the Eastern Conference as it has won 42.9 percent of its last against the west while winning 37.8 percent within its own conference. The Knicks are 18-10 ATS in their 28 games against the Western Conference. New York has been a culprit this season of playing up and down to the competition as it is 23-10 ATS against teams with a winning record and just 17-20 ATS against teams with a losing record. Utah has been nearly unbeatable at home and that is a main factor for this huge line. The Jazz are just 5-5 ATS this season as a double-digit chalk and they have not had a lot of success against the other conference, winning only 14 pf 29 games against the east while going 13-16 ATS in those games. The real problem here is the spot the Jazz are in as they are coming off an overtime win over Phoenix in a revenge spot and have to travel to Portland tomorrow night in a huge game in the Northwest Division. If there is ever a sandwich spot, this is it. The Knicks are 10-1 ATS over the last two seasons in road games when coming off a double-digit road loss. They are also 15-5 ATS this season in road games when the total is greater than 210 and we have a number of 213 tonight. The Knicks have covered eight straight in this series and they extend that tonight against a Utah team that will not be very interested to be on the floor. 3* New York Knicks
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets -5.5
The Nets are due for a win in the worst way after dropping 4 straight and I like them to get it tonight against a Bucks team that has lost 5 in a row SU and ATS and is 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games. Milwaukee is just 3-13 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons while New Jersey is 18-5 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. The Bucks tried to hang around in the playoff picture for awhile after enduring critical injuries but have now packed it in. Lay the number.
Matt Rivers
For Monday back the Magic in South Beach.
This truly is a bottom of the barrel play as the slate is ugly and small making it a little bit of a force here but gun to my head I will back Dwight Howard and the visitors today.
Dwyane Wade is awesome and the Heat are a solid squad. Miami will make the playoffs and because of their superstar guard are not going to be an easy out at all. But when push comes to shove the 54-18 Magic are the definite better team and have been off the last two days after the easy win over Milwaukee on Friday night. That was a whole weekend of relaxation for the Orlando players and I do see them responding here.
Stan Van Gundy's boys are gunning for that two seed in the East which would be huge as that may mean the all important game seven at home against the defending champion Celtics. Plus it's not like Howard is the entire team. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are very competent pieces and Rafer Alston was a nice addition after the Jameer Nelson injury.
Erik Spoelstra has done a solid job with this Miami team. I don't have much bad to say about Wade and company, I just believe that even in Miami Orlando is the better team and will show it as this cheap road chalk in another quality win and cover.
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at NEW JERSEY -5'
Sunday winner on the Raptors, now 6-0 the last 6 days for free!
As bad as the Nets have been of late, the Bucks have been worse.
Milwaukee comes into this one having lost 5 straight, and 10 of their last 12 straight up, while going just 1-11 against the spread in those 12 games.
In the series, Milwaukee is a dismal 2-8 straight up the last 10 meetings, and just 3-13 against the spread the last 16 tilts, failing 7 in a row.
New Jersey has had to play a home-and-home against the Cavs, and followed that up with a game against the Lakers in their last 4 outings, so the G-Man thinks the step down in competition will be just the recipe for this slumping Nets team.
Lay the wood here.
1♦ NEW JERSEY
Sports Gambling Hotline
New York +12 at UTAH
While we don't see the Knicks who have won just once in their last 8 games winning this one outright, there are plenty of numbers that do support an underdog play on the New Yorkers, as the Knicks have covered the last 8 series meetings, and they do boast outright wins in the series in 7 of the 9 series showdowns.
New York is also on a 19-7-1 spread run their last 27 on the road, and they catch the Jazzmen in the midst of a money-burning 2-6 spread slide their last 8 games on court.
Utah does have a big road showdown at Portland on deck tomorrow night, so don't be surprised if they look past the struggling Knicks just a little in this one.
Our call, Utah gets the straight up win, but the Knicks get the against the spread cover.
Take the points.
2♦ NEW YORK
Bobby Maxwell
UTEP at OREGON STATE +1
We handed you the FREE underdog winner on the college hardwood on Sunday with Michigan State and we'll do it again tonight as we play Oregon State at home.
Play the home team Beavers in this one as they are playing some tough basketball right now and they've been a defensive force in front of the home fans. Plus Oregon State knows if it loses tonight, this best-of-3 championship series is all over.
Oregon State beat Houston in the opening round 49-45 as a one-point home pup, then scored OT wins over Vermont 71-70 as a one-point pup and Pac-10 rival Stanford 65-62 as a four-point 'dog, all three coming at home.
The Beavers have won five straight at home (SU and ATS) and they allow just 57 points a game on the home court. They are on ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference play, 5-1 as a home 'dog, 8-0 as a 'dog of less than seven points and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
It's simple, Oregon State knows how to put the clamps on an opponent. Play the Beavers to win this one in a close, low-scoring affair.
3♦ OREGON STATE
VEGAS EXPERTS
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Golden State actually has double revenge here for a pair of losses back in November. That's when they weren't healthy and were amongst the league's worst teams. All four recent losses were on the road. At home, the Warriors are a totally different team. They've won and covered four of their last five at Oracle Arena. Short number tonight so we can point out Memphis' 6-30 SU road record and the fact that they scored just 66 points in their last game.
Play on: Golden State
LT Profits
Dallas Stars +100
The slumping Dallas Stars have lost six straight games, but they are still in playoff contention and that motivation should be good enough for them to get well vs. the lowly Phoenix Coyotes.
The Stars are on the verge of an epic choke, as they were seventh in the Western Conference when this slump began. They have now dropped to eleventh, eight points behind the St. Louis Blues for the eighth and final playoff spot. If Dallas is serious about its post-season aspiration, the Stars simply must beat teams that they should beat from here on out, and the Coyotes seem ripe for the picking.
Phoenix has virtually nothing to play for here, as they are 14 points out of a playoff spot with seven games to play, and the Coyotes have lost 20 of their last 27 games overall. Also, the road team is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these teams, and aside from their faint playoff hopes, the Stars are also seeking double revenge after losing the last two meetings with Phoenix by an identical 1-0 score, with one loss coming in a shootout.
Look for Dallas to avoid getting shut out for a third straight time by the Coyotes, and for the Stars to emerge victorious here.
Pick: Stars +100
Ben Burns
Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Under
These teams have seen each of their last two meetings finish above the total. Both those games were played at Vancouver though. Looking at the last five meetings between these teams at Minnesota and we find the 'under' at 3-0-2. Those games produced an average of four goals per game. Overall, the Wild have seen the 'under' go 4-2-1 their last seven games, including 2-0 their last two here at Minnesota. Consider the Under.