Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +111
I'm going with the Rangers today at home against the Indians. A lot of people are going to hate going against Cliff Lee the way he pitched last year for the Indians, but this guy was lit up in the spring for 46 hits and 33 runs in just 21.2 innings of work. I know the regular season is a different game, but I think those numbers are a sign that this year he won't be able to repeat his AL Cy Young numbers from a year ago. In 2007 he made 16 starts and posted a 6.29 ERA and in 2006 he was 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Basically I'm not sold he's made the jump so I'll take the potent Ranger line up this afternoon.
Jeff Benton
Scored my fifth consecutive NBA free-play winner Sunday as the Cavaliers destroyed the Spurs. I’m now 8-2 with complimentary selections over the past 10 days, including four in a row. Let’s keep it rolling Monday with our first baseball freebie as we’ll take the Houston Astros with Roy Oswalt in a pick-em spot at home against the Cubs.
The Astros figure to be highly motivated today, not only because this is their season-opener at home, but because the last time they faced Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano, they got no-hit. That was back on Sept. 14, when Hurricane Ike pelted Houston and led MLB officials to move a series between these teams from Minute Maid Park to Milwaukee – which is just a short drive from Chicago, making it a virtual home series for the Cubs.
With their minds obviously on more pressing matters back home in Houston, it’s not surprising that the Astros weren’t exactly ready to play baseball that day. That becomes even more obvious when you consider that just 12 days earlier, in Houston, the Astros beat Zambrano and the Cubs 9-7. In fact, take away the no-hitter, and Houston has won three of the last four games against the Cubs that Zambrano started, touching him up for a total of 16 runs (all earned) in 24 innings – that’s a 6.00 ERA!
As for Oswalt, he was lights out down the stretch for the Astros in 2008, tossing 11 consecutive quality starts to end the season, allowing a total of 13 earned runs in 81 1/3 innings (1.44 ERA). That included a 3-0 shutout victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field. On top of that, Oswalt has dominated the Cubs the last three times he’s faced them in Houston (three total earned runs allowed in 22 innings, good for a 1.23 ERA!).
Finally, the Astros closed last season by winning Oswalt’s last eight starts at home (from June 30 to the end of the year); they’re 55-18 in his last 73 starts in H-Town; and they ended last year on a 39-19 run overall, including 21-7 at home. Give me the value with the home squad in this one.
3♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
Going into Sunday I was on a 17-8 run with a pending play on the Trail Blazers to up that record. We're going to play the New York Mets against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night.
Be sure that both Santana and Harang are going for you in this one, as they're the pitchers I want toeing the rubber for us in this one. Once you indicate it being a Run Line, you'll see both pitchers listed.
Aaron Harang had such a disappointing campaign last year, and I don't know how much better he's gotten. I've yet to hear too much about his offseason progress, and I don't believe that's by accident. I think Harang's woes will carryover to the first month of this season.
In having to face a lineup like Reyes, Murphy, Wright, Delgado, Beltran and Church ... well, do I really have to say why we're making this a run line play? Harang's 5.85 lifetime ERA against the Mets should help us out as well.
The Mets are one of the teams expected to challenge for the National League challenge, and let me tell you something, cold weather or not, Santana figures to be red-hot long enough before giving way to the team's knight in shining armor - Francisco Rodriguez - for his first regular-season appearance of the season.
Take the Mets, and look for a huge win to cash that Run Line.
N.Y. METS RUN LINE
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the over in the college championship game.
I am not the biggest fan of totals on the planet but I do think this game will go over. For one, North Carolina always seems to score a boatload of points no matter who they play and with their immense talent led by Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington and Green and the way Michigan State has been filling it up why should anything be different today? The Spartans are more of a grinding team for sure but that has not been the case recently the way Lucas, Morgan, Suton and others have been getting out on the break and scoring points.
The Tar Heels and Wildcats were on a torrid over pace at the half in the National Semifinal and then both teams seemed to forget how to shoot. That game should have skied over the total but a rough patch of misses equaled bad luck and if you had the high you were not cashing your ticket. Meanwhile Michigan State and UCONN flew over that total from the get go as the Spartans looked to run at all opportunities and set the pace.
It is a hefty number for sure and especially if Tom Izzo looks to slow it down a bit but you can pretty much always chalk up Roy Williams' boys to get at the bare minimum in the 80's with their offense and I do not see a total blowout meaning Michigan State should at least find the 70's, if not better.
The upside is a lot better than the downside today. I cannot possibly see a 66-60 final with this North Carolina offense but yet if we get a 90-84 game I would not be all that shocked.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Wow, what a way for the defending World Series champions to start the season. Oh well. The Phillies take the loss and keep us from coming through in this spot, but don’t worry about that because we’re still 8-4 our last 12 comp plays and 16-8 our last 24 freebies and we’re getting back to the business of winning today.
The MLB season is fully under way and we’re coming at it with some strong baseball action as we’re taking the Cleveland Indians on the road at the Texas Rangers.
Over the last couple of seasons despite not playing each other as often as division opponents would, the Indians have owned the Rangers, winning 12 of their last 19 meetings since the start of the 2007 season.
Last season, in their third and final series of the year, the Indians swept Texas, beating the Rangers in three straight games in Arlington. Also consider that Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Rangers when today’s scheduled starting pitcher Cliff Lee takes the mound.
Conversely, Texas has won only one of its last 4 games with today’s scheduled starter Kevin Millwood taking the mound and the team has not won a single Game 1 of a series with Millwood on the bump.
Cleveland will continue its mastery of Texas and get over easily in Arlington today. Take the Indians on the road in this one.
3♦ INDIANS
Michael Cannon
LA Dodgers at SAN DIEGO -135
Take the Padres as the home chalk over the Dodgers.
This pitching matchup greatly favors San Diego, as Jake Peavy gets the nod opposite Hiroki Kuroda.
Peavy can mask any offensive shortcomings this Padres team may have because you know he’s coming out spinning nothing but zeros. The right-hander posted a 1.74 ERA in 14 home starts last year and he’s absolutely owned the Dodgers in his career, going 13-1 with a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts.
Kuroda was 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA in his rookie campaign last year. The right-hander was just 3-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 road starts last year and 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts against the Padres.
Take the Padres as the home chalk as they grab the win.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs at HOUSTON -105
We're on a 4-1 run with FREE plays and we'll improve on that tonight as we deliver our first baseball come winner of the season, playing the Astros at home to take care of the Cubs.
We're playing the Astros as a small favorite over Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs because of Houston ace Roy Oswalt. With this guy on the hill, Houston is going to give everybody fits. He's a true ace in this league and was great for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
Oswalt was 17-10 last season with a 3.54 ERA and was great down the stretch, tossing 11 straight quality starts (three earned runs or less and at least six innings pitched) to finish the year. He was 8-2 with a 1.44 ERA in those 13 games. In Houston, the veteral was 10-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 starts.
Houston is 55-18 in Oswalt's last 73 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven outings overall and 85-40 in his last 125 as a favorite. And the Astros won his last eight starts last season.
And look what Oswalt has done against the Cubs at home, he is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three and he has a 3.88 ERA in 26 games against them overall.
Zambrano had the sensational year, but coming down the stretch, after Sept. 14, he went 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA, allowing 20 runs in 12 2/3 innings and he got shelled in the playoffs, giving up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers in Game 1 of the divisional series.
We love Oswalt in this one, so lay the small price and play the Astros.
3♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at BALTIMORE
After missing the postseason for the first time in a long time, the Yankees have reloaded, and their centerpiece of the rotation, CC Sabathia will be taking the bump at Camden Yards this Monday afternoon.
Obviously this early in the season, you don't expect your starter to go the route, but we do expect Sabathia to last a little longer than Baltimore hurler Jeremy Guthrie.
Baltimore hasn't seen Sabathia since the '07 season, while the Yankees have reached Guthrie for 15 runs over his last 25 innings of work against them.
The New York offense may be without A-Rod for this one, but Mark Texeira's bat should be a capable fill-in for the time being.
We like the Yanks to put up some big crooked numbers, while CC limits the O's bats to 6 or 7 goose eggs.
Play on the Yankees on the RUN LINE.
3♦ YANKEES - RUN LINE PLAY
DUNKEL
Michigan State vs. North Carolina
The Spartans come into the NCAA championship game 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Michigan State is the underdog pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has North Carolina favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+7 1/2).
Game 601-602: Michigan State vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 73.190; North Carolina 79.076
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 6
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+7 1/2)
MLB
Today's MLB Picks
Cleveland at Texas
The Indians are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9 to 10 1/2, while the Rangers are 10-4 in Kevin Millwood's last 14 home starts with the total set at the same amount. Texas is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130).
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 13.865; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.557
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+165); Over
Game 903-904: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.424; Arizona (Webb) 15.673
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.518; Florida (Nolasco) 15.567
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-165); Over
Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.953; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.549
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-205); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+195); Under
Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 13.630; San Diego (Peavy) 14.810
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-140); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.995; Houston (Oswalt) 14.820
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Under
Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.295; Boston (Beckett) 14.851
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Over
Game 915-916: Cleveland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 15.471; Texas (Millwood) 16.599
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130); Over
Game 917-918: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 16.998; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.822
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Under
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.029; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.341
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under
Game 921-922: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.773; Toronto (Halladay) 15.366
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-155); Under
Game 923-924: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.194; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.049
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+140); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 15.062; LA Angels (Saunders) 14.514
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Over
Matty O'Shea
PIT (+160) vs STL
I think the Cardinals are very overvalued in this spot, especially considering the pitching matchup. Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm was 2-1 vs. St. Louis last season with a 3.05 ERA while Cardinals starter Adam Wainright surrendered 11 runs in 12 innings against the Pirates in two starts a year ago. The cold weather could also be a factor, so let's take a shot on Pittsburgh as my NL Underdog Play O' the Day.
Greg Shaker
Michigan State Spartans at North Carolina Tar Heels
Play: Michigan State +8
There are still some of those out there but I got mine and you should be able to get yours by end of day. If you cannot, the current number will be OK. It is hard to figure what is in the minds of bettors for this contest tonight but I do know what is in the minds of those that are playing North Carolina. 98-63. That was the final score of the first meeting between these two back in early December and that score is very hard to forget. It was an NC Thrashing as they shot 48% from the court and 83% from the Free Throw Stripe, and did those things very often, as the Tarheels usually do. The only thing Michigan State did relatively right was rebound the ball with boards being virtually even throughout the contest. But we can't look at that game in relation to this this one because we have totally different dynamics and we have a Spartan Squad that was "Young" back in early December, and one now that is "Not." These Kids have grown a great deal and that is what Kilbasa Sausages will do for you as part of your regular diet. They have been putting plenty on condiments on their Buns, and they have been swallowing wins along the way. They certainly are relishing the fact that they have come this far as so are the People of this great state. Michigan State opened this season with a very high pace, and as kids will do, they made some shooting snafu's along the way. At one time this year, Michigan State was in the Top 15% of all teams tempo-wise in the country. They now are at the 30% Level. So what is going on? They are being more selective, they are driving the hoop more. The result is extraordinary offensive efficiency, greater rebound statistics, more free throw opps, more and better wins. North Carolina is North Carolina. Yada, Yada, Yada. They are good. Are they 8 points better than the Current Spartan Squad? I don't think so. The Michiganians will be in the crowd. They will be consuming a lot of Kilbasas. And this game is going to be wire to wire. I am grabbing my sausage, and I am grabbing these points.
Ron Raymond
CAL / LOS Over 5.5
When LOS ANGELES played as any home/road team - During Last 2 Years - With 1 Over or More - Won Last Game by 5 Goals or Less - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; The OVER is a perfect 11-0-0 for the LA Kings in this cycle the L2Y.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ NY Yanks Over 8.5
Last year Camden Yards was the 3rd best hitting park in the league, as their games averaged 10.5 rpg. Last year CC Sabathia got off to a rocky start and could have similar struggles today vs a decent Baltimore offense that ranked 11th in scoring last year (4.86 rpg). Last year the Yanks were in the top 10 in most offensive categories abd they have had good success vs Guthrie as he owns a 4.62 ERA in 6 careeer starts vs them. The Yanks got off to a slow start last year and you can bet they're ready to put some runs on the board early and often, even without ARod. I see double digits in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets -155 over CINCINNATI
Ben Burns
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Under
Cliff Lee gets the call for the Tribe. While he didn't fare too well in the spring, all he did last season was go 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, earning a CY Young award along the way.Although he didn't have great overall numbers, Millwood did see the 'under' go 7-5-1 in his 13 home starts. This afternoon, he'll face a Cleveland lineup which hit just .254 during last year's afternoon games, averaging only 4.1 runs in those games. Looking back a bit further and we find the 'under' at a highly profitable 59-28-4 the last two seasons, when the Indians have played during the afternoon. Consider the Under
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto starter Roy Halladay has dominated Detroit going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in his 14 career starts against them. The Blue Jays are 50-23 when Halladay starts the first game of a series and they are 79-38 in his last 117 starts. Detroit starter Justin Verlander had more walks that strikeouts in Spring Training and the Tigers are 5-12 in his last 17 road starts. Detroit is 12-25 their last 37 games vs. the Blue Jays. PLAY ON TORONTO -(Halladay vs. Verlander)