SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago (40-40, 41-38-1 ATS) at Detroit (39-41, 34-46 ATS)
The streaking Bulls have won four straight and are trying to get to the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings and will square off with the Pistons, who are in the eighth position, a game behind Chicago and Philadelphia.
Chicago continued its winning ways with Saturday’s 113-106 victory over Charlotte, but it came up short as a 9½-point home favorite to drop to 2-2 ATS during its winning streak. The Bulls have been scoring at will lately, topping 103 points in each of their last eight games.
Detroit had a three-game winning streak snapped Saturday when it fell in Indiana 106-102 as a two-point road ‘dog. The Pistons clinched their playoff spot on Friday with a 100-93 win at home over the Nets, but failed to cover as eight-point favorites. Prior to Saturday’s loss, Detroit had held four straight opponents to 97 points or less.
The host has won five straight in this series, but the Bulls have dominated at the window, cashing in each of the last seven games and nine of the last 10. Most recently, Chicago got a 99-91 win on March 24 as a five-point home chalk, and in their December matchup in Detroit the Pistons prevailed 104-98 but came up short as seven-point favorites, the fourth straight cover for the Bulls in the Palace at Auburn Hills. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series clashes.
Chicago is on ATS runs of 5-2 as a ‘dog, 7-3-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 9-3 following a non-cover, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win. Detroit is on ATS slides of 1-5 against Central Division teams, 7-17 at home, 8-19 as a home favorite and 2-5 after a non-cover, but the Pistons have cashed in eight straight Monday contests.
The Bulls are on “over” runs of 9-4 as a road ‘dog, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 19-9-1 against Central Division foes. Likewise, the Pistons are on “over” stretches of 13-5-1 overall, 10-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 5-0 at home against teams with losing road records and 10-3-1 after getting a day off. Finally, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these rivals and 5-0 in the last five clashes in Michigan.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New Orleans (49-31, 34-44-2 ATS) at Houston (52-28, 39-40-1 ATS)
The Rockets are shooting for their fifth straight win when they welcome the Hornets into the Toyota Center in Houston in a matchup of Southwest Division rivals and Western Conference playoff squads.
New Orleans beat Dallas 102-92 at home on Sunday, covering as a four-point favorite. The Hornets are in the sixth spot in the Western Conference playoff race, one game ahead of Dallas and two ahead of the Jazz.
Houston got a 113-109 win at Golden State on Saturday but came up just short as six-point favorites. The Rockets are tied for the third seed in the playoff race with Portland and they’re just a half-game ahead of the Spurs in the Southwest Division standings.
The Rockets have won two of the three head-to-head meetings with New Orleans this season (2-1 ATS), including a 95-84 win in the Big Easy on March 16 as six-point ‘dogs. Houston has cashed in four of the last six meetings overall, but the Hornets are on a 7-2 ATS run in the Toyota Center.
New Orleans is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 1-5 on Mondays and 1-4 against Western Conference teams. Conversely, Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home fans.
The Hornets enter this contest on “under” streaks of 13-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 9-4 against Western Conference teams and 7-0-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. On the flip side, the Rockets are on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-1 against Western Conference teams.
In this series, the under is 4-0 in the last four battles overall and 6-2 in the last eight at the Toyota Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (3-3) at Tampa Bay (3-3)
The Yankees send Chien-Ming Wang (0-1, 17.18 ERA) to the mound today to face the Rays and lefty Scott Kazmir (1-0, 1.50 ERA) in the home opener for Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field.
New York’s three-game winning streak came to an end Sunday with a 6-4 loss in Kansas City, Meanwhile, Tampa salvaged a three-game series in Baltimore by routing the Orioles on Sunday 11-3 to end its six-game, season-opening road trip. The Yankees won six of the last eight meetings with the Rays last year and they’re 6-2 in Wang’s last eight starts versus Tampa.
The Yankees are on positive streaks of 5-3 on the road, 5-1 in series openers, 5-1 as underdogs and 5-0 against southpaws. The Rays are also on a plethora of positive streaks, including 58-20 at home, 43-13 at home against right-handed starters and 48-18 as a home favorite.
Wang, making his first start since June 15, 2008, got knocked around at Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up seven runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 7-5 loss. He missed the second half of last season with a leg injury but the Yankees won his final five starts. The right-hander faced the Rays twice last season and allowed a combined one run on 11 hits in 13 innings but the Bronx Bombers split the two contests, winning 2-0 at home and losing 2-1 in Tampa. For his career, Wang is 7-4 with a 3.35 ERA against the Rays in 86 innings of work.
Kazmir pitched well in his first start of the year Wednesday, holding Boston to one run on five hits in six innings as the Rays rolled to a 7-2 victory. He saw the Yankees three times last season and gave up a total of two runs in 17 innings as the Rays won two of his three starts. In 12 career games against the Yankees, Kazmir is 4-4 with a 2.51 ERA in 68 innings of action.
Despite Wednesday’s ugly loss to the Orioles, New York is on several positive runs with Wang on the hill, including 41-16 overall, 21-7 when he starts on the road, 21-6 when he opens a series and 6-2 when he faces A.L. East squads. Tampa is on streaks of 22-10 in Kazmir’s last 32 starts, 19-7 when he starts at home, 20-7 when he’s a favorite and 5-2 against A.L. East competition.
New York has topped the total in six of Wang’s last seven starts, but the under has been the play in five of his last seven as a road ‘dog and the under is 6-1-2 in his last nine against Tampa. As a team, the Yankees are on “over” runs of 7-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 on field turf, 6-2 on Mondays and 5-1 against A.L. East foes.
Tampa Bay is on a plethora of “over” runs with Kazmir on the hill, including 9-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 7-0 against A.L. East teams, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-1 when he gets four days of rest. As a team, the Rays are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2 against A.L. East teams, 4-0 at home and 4-1 as a home favorite.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (2-4) at Oakland (2-4)
A pair of southpaws will take the mound in Oakland when Jon Lester (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and the Red Sox open a three-game set against Dallas Braden (0-1, 4.50) and the A’s.
Both teams lost heartbreakers Sunday, with Boston falling 5-4 in Anaheim, while the A’s got swept by the Mariners after 1-0 home defeat. The Red Sox have won nine of the last 13 meetings overall with Oakland, but they are just 4-11 in their last 15 visits to northern California.
As a team, Boston is just 3-8 in its last 11 as a favorite, but it is 13-3 in its last 16 series openers, 12-4 in its last 16 against A.L. West teams and 43-15 against teams with losing records. Oakland is mired in funks of 2-9 overall, 0-6 against southpaws and 5-18 against A.L. East squads.
Lester got knocked around at home by the Rays on Wednesday, giving up five runs on eight hits over five innings of a 7-2 home loss. He also got touched up in the American League Championship Series in his last two starts last season, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings. He made four starts against the A’s last season, including three in California, with the Red Sox going 2-2. Lester is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in his career against Oakland.
Braden has had a week off since his Opening Day start in Anaheim when he allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings of a 3-0 loss. The A’s won five of Braden’s final seven starts last season, and he allowed the opposition three runs or less in six of the seven contests. He’s made just one career start against the Red Sox and allowed four runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss in Boston last August.
While the BoSox are just 1-4 in Lester’s last five roadies, they are on several positive runs with the lefty on the hill, including 35-16 overall, 25-9 as a favorite, 7-1 on Mondays, 5-0 against A.L. West teams and 23-6 when he faces teams with a losing record. The A’s are 5-2 in Braden’s last seven starts as a ‘dog and 4-1 in his last five as a home pup.
The Red Sox are on several “under” runs with Lester on the hill, including 6-2-1 on the road, 6-0-1 in series openers, 5-2 as a favorite and 7-3 against A.L. West teams. As a team, Boston is on “under” streaks of 20-8-3 in series openers 11-5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 as a road chalk.
With Braden starting, the A’s are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 in series openers. As a team, Oakland is on “under” streaks of 35-16 in series openers and 14-5 against A.L. East teams, but the A’s have topped the total in four of six at home and four of five overall.
In this series, the under has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings in Oakland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Nick Parsons
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
The Blue Jays look to bounce back from an 8-4 loss in Cleveland their last time out and will do so behind the arm of Jesse Litsch. Litsch allowed 20 homers in 28 starts last season, so he usually does a fair job of keeping the ball in the park. He logged 176 innings last season, won 13 games and posted a 3.58 ERA. Litsch has been a solid addition to the Jays rotation since making his debut in 2007 and I expect him to settle down this evening after his first shaky start against the Tigers is done and under his belt. Toronto is 3-1 (+1.6 units) against right handed starters this year and I look for that trend to continue this evening!
Play on: Toronto
Cajun Sports
Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Chicago Bulls +4
The Palace at Auburn Hills will be the site of tonight’s Eastern Conference battle between the host Detroit Pistons and the visiting Chicago Bulls. With the regular season coming to an end on Wednesday night each game for the teams fighting for playoff position become unbelievably important. Seeding in the playoffs is important from the standpoint you don’t want to have to travel to Cleveland in your first round game if you can possibly get around it, but the alternatives aren’t much better for the Bulls as they would likely have to face Boston or Orlando. The Detroit Pistons have had an up and down season under first year head coach Mike Curry but they have secured a spot in this year’s postseason. Detroit is money burning 11-23 ATS as chalk at Auburn Hills this season plus the Bulls have covered the three previous encounters with the Pistons during the 2008-09 campaign. Not only have the Bulls won the money in all three meetings this season they are on a current ATS streak against the Pistons that is now at seven straight. Chicago defeated Detroit in their most recent meeting back on March 24th at the United Center 99 to 91 as a 4.5 point home favorite. Many would think we are wrong for backing the Bulls here because of the revenge factor but as many of you know we do not believe in following anything blindly even revenge. Add to that fact the Pistons are 12-25 ATS in home games revenging a road loss the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 2-12 ATS after a division game, 0-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival, 15-26 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses and 1-12 ATS after 3 straight games forcing their opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index only favors the Pistons by 0.9 points in tonight’s matchup and our Math Model Index shows Detroit with only a 1.4 point advantage. With the current line at Bulls +4 we are receiving decent line value here so take the points with the visitor as they get another ATS win against this Pistons team on Monday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Bulls 103 Detroit Pistons 104
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Under 9.5
A great pitching matchup for Monday with 2 young pitchers that are looking for a great follow up to there very good first starts.
Floyd led the White Sox (3-3) with 17 wins in 2008 and looked sharp in his season debut. The right-hander allowed two runs and six hits and struck out nine in seven innings of a 2-0 loss to Kansas City on Wednesday. Floyd had little trouble beating the Tigers last season, going 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA in five games with the White Sox winning each contest. He is 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts versus Detroit and is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four games at Comerica Park. Pretty impressive numbers verse a pretty powerful offensive lineup in DET!
Miner allowed one run and six hits in 5 2-3 innings of a 5-1 win at Toronto on Wednesday, and is set to make his first appearance of the season at Comerica Park, where he hasn't had much success. The right-hander went 2-1 with a 6.26 ERA in eight home starts last season, compared to 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five road starts. One of his best home starts came against the White Sox, though. Miner, who went 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five games two starts versus Chicago last season, allowed two runs and five hits in six innings of a 6-4 home victory over the Sox on July 27. Young pitcher has got it now and will pitch great today!
Neither team plays small ball well and neither one of these pitchers give up many homeruns think this one will be a low scoring win for CHI. SCORE CHI 3 - DET 1
LT Profits
Phillies/Nationals Under 9.5
The Washington Nationals have one of the worst offenses in the majors, and the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been scorching the ball the first week, so do not expect many fireworks this afternoon
The Nationals remain winless at 0-5 thus far, thanks in large part to a modest .244 team batting average. They now must go up against the ageless Jamie Moyer, who figures to have his way with this young lineup. This is precisely the type of team that Moyer has success against, as he is a master at keeping inexperienced batters off balance. Thus, it is no surprise that he was four for four in Quality Starts in his last four starts vs. Washington last year.
Now the Phillies are averaging 4.80 runs per game while getting off to a 3-2 start, but keep in mind that those games were in Philadelphia and Colorado, a couple of stadiums that are more hitter-friendly than Washington. Nationals starter Daniel Cabrera gave up five runs in six innings in his National League debut, but he does have a very live arm and he has the potential to succeed in the National League if he could keep his walks down.
Cabrera walked only two vs. the Marlins, and he could show marked improvement with similar control today vs. a free-swinging Phillies bunch. Thus, the Under looks like the way to go here.
Pick: Phillies/Nationals Under 9.5
Dave Cokin
CINCINNATI REDS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take: MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Edinson Volquez figures to rack up some serious K's tonight against the free-swinging Brewers. But Milwaukee looks as though they should be tough at home again this year, and they've got their ace on the hill tonight. Yovani Gallardo is the goods and I see him as one of a handful of legit Cy Young possibilities. He could dominate a Reds lineup that isn't hitting a lick aside from Votto and Phillips. The price is not cheap, but I have to side with the Brewers.
Jim Feist
CLEVELAND CAVALIERSINDIANA PACERS
Take: INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers may be out of a postseason spot, but they are playing great ball. The Pacers responded from blowing a double-digit lead earlier in the fourth quarter to beat the playoff-bound Detroit Pistons 106-102 Saturday at Conseco Fieldhouse. "Like I've been saying, the commitment you make as an NBA player is you play 82 games, regardless if you're playing for the playoffs or you're not in the playoffs," Pacers guard Jarrett Jack said. "You go about it in a professional manner, and I think that's what everybody is doing." In a sense, this is their playoff game, hosting the best team in the league. Cleveland plays its 3rd game in 4 nights and is off its emotional home blowout win over rival Boston Sunday. A great spot for the home team. Play the Cavs.
Tom Freese
Toronto at Minnesota
Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins and the Blue Jays are 22-6 their last 28 games vs. AL Central teams and they are 6-2 with Litsch vs. AL Central teams. Toronto is 11-5 their last 16 games as underdogs. Minnesota starter Kevin Slowey is 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. Toronto. Slowey is 1-8 his last 9 starts vs. AL East teams. The Twins are 6-14 their last 20 games vs. AL East teams and they are 5-16 their last 21 games with the Blue Jays. PLAY ON TORONTO + (Litsch vs. Slowey)
Jimmy The Moose
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are coming off a shutout win over the Pirates yesterday afternoon in which Harang went the distance so the bullpen is rested if needed. Volquez has a bad outing in the opener so expect him to have a better performance in this one for the Reds. Going back to last season the Reds are 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. The Reds have won 2 of his 3 starts vs. the Brewers and both wins have come in Milwaukee. The Brewers played last night vs. the Cubs. Although its very early the Brewers haven't looked like the team that made the post season last season. The Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 trips to Milwaukee. Play on the Cincinnati Reds +.
Scott Spreitzer
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Texas is back in its preferred warm weather after getting swept in Detroit over the weekend. They slaughtered Cleveland pitching on this field last week and tonight they get to face a relatively soft throwing Japanese pitcher who pitches to contact. Koji Uehara may be a new name for you, but he?s a 34-year old Japanese League veteran who is likely to be overmatched in the US. Note that he only lasted 5 innings in his debut start against the Yankees, getting ZERO strikeouts. He dodged bullets that day. Try ?pitching to contact? in Arlington and the scoreboard is going to light up. Vicente Padilla is going for the Rangers. He?s experienced in these conditions and has the look of a fast starter. His ERA in April and May of 2008 was a sharp 3.66 (given where he has to pitch). Texas should have a chip on its shoulder after getting swept over the weekend. Baltimore is in a letdown spot after a huge opening week at home against divisional rivals New York and Tampa Bay. The Rangers minus the price is the play.
Ben Burns
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Mavericks played yesterday, the second of back to back big games vs. New Orleans. They've got another big game vs. Houston on deck, to close out the regular season, followed by the playoffs. It should be easy for them to look past this evening's lowly opponent. With the T-Wolves at a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range, consider taking the points.
John Ryan
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota as they travel to face Dallas slated to start at 8:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 11 or fewer poits. Timberwolves are a solid 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Fine tuning this, we find that they are on a 4-0 ATS run after losing their previous game by 10 or more points SU. Further, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game; 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Dallas is only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day; 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take Minnesota.
Big Al Mcmordie
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: New York Yankees
At 7:05pm our member selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course it's way too early to count the Yankees out of anything yet. They may have lost two out of their first three games this season in Baltimore, lost to KC on Sunday, and A-Rod may be sorely missed in the lineup while he rehabs from his hip surgery, but there is still simply too much talent on this team for them to be dismissed in April, even though they have two of the best teams (the Rays and Red Sox) to contend with. Yankee games in Tampa used to be like home games because of all the New York fans down in that part of Florida (the Yanks spring training facility is right there as well), but that changed a bit last season. Still, the Yankees enjoyed their trips down to Florida's gulf coast, taking five of nine games played at Tropicana Field in 2008 (and 11 of 18 overall vs. the Rays). Look for reliable righthander Chien-Ming Wang to bounce back off of a sub-par first start against the Orioles. Wang has also enjoyed pitching at the Trop as in 2006 he went 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA there followed by 2-1 and 4.42 in 2007 and last year Wang only had one start there (in May) but pitched seven nearly-flawless innings. In fact if the Yankees were smart, they'd make sure all of Wang's starts were away from the Bronx as he was superb on the road last season (5-0 with a 2.12 ERA in seven starts). Take New York.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -133
The Cubs have won each of their first two road series' of the season and now they finally get to take the field for their home opener. We'll bet the Cubs this afternoon behind southpaw Ted Lilly. First off, the Rockies are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings and 7-20 in their last 27 meetings in Chicago. The Cubs are a rock solid 6-1 in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Pitching is where Chicago has the big edge today as the Cubs are 21-8 in Lilly's last 29 starts, 10-3 in Lilly's last 13 home starts, 9-2 in Lilly's last 11 starts during game 1 of a series, and 7-0 in Lilly's last 7 Monday starts. The Rockies are 6-14 in Jimenez's last 20 road starts and just 4-12 in Jimenez's last 16 starts as a road underdog. Take the Cubbies today.
Carlo Campanella
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer opened the season with a 4-0 loss to Atlanta, allowing 8 Hits for 4 Earned Runs (2 HRs) in that debut. Expect Moyer to return to his ace pitcher status in his second start in Washington on Monday, as we find him at 13-2 after allowing 2 Home Runs or more in his previous start, and he's been awesome against Washington. Not only is he a perfect 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA against Washington (8-2 team record last 10 starts in this series), in his last 2 trips to the mound, he held them to just 2 Earned Runs in 13 Innings Pitched. Washington is 0-6 this season and we're backing Philadelphia in the first game of this series.
7* Play On Philadelphia