SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Atlanta (1-2 SU and ATS) at (5) Miami (2-1 SU and ATS)
The surging Heat look to push the Hawks to the brink of elimination when these divisional rivals resume their best-of-7 series with Game 4 at American Airlines Arena.
Miami pounded Atlanta 107-78 Saturday as a four-point home chalk, the third blowout in as many games in this series – the Hawks rolled 90-64 in Game 1 at home, and the Heat posted a 108-93 Game 2 win on the road. On Saturday, Dwyane Wade had 29 points, eight assists and seven rebounds, and Jermaine O’Neal (22 points, 10 rebounds) and Udonis Haslem (12 points, 13 rebounds) each had double-doubles. Miami is now 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in its last six starts.
Atlanta couldn’t get any of its scorers going Saturday, with Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and Al Horford all topping out at 13 points, and Joe Johnson – who led the team in the regular season at 21.4 ppg – managing just 10. The Hawks got outshot 46.9 percent to 36.9 percent and were outrebounded 48-35. Atlanta is now 4-10 ATS in its last 14 outings.
The Hawks continue to hold a slim 4-3 SU edge against Miami for the season, but the Heat are 4-3 ATS. Going back further, Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 battles with Atlanta, including 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Florida.
Miami is 29-13 SU (21-20-1 ATS) in South Beach this season, while Atlanta is a dismal 16-26 SU (21-21 ATS) on the highway.
Along with their current 5-1 ATS uptick overall, the Heat are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home, 4-0 on one day of rest, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-2 as a chalk of less than five points and 5-1 against Southeast Division foes. However, they are also carrying ATS skids of 1-4 as a playoff chalk and 21-43-3 following a SU win.
The Hawks, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-5 overall, 0-5 as a pup, 0-4 as a road ‘dog, 1-6 against winning teams, 3-8 against the Eastern Conference, 2-5 after a non-cover and 1-4 after a day off.
The over for Miami is on rolls of 14-5-1 at home and 7-3 against the East, but the under for the Heat is on streaks of 7-1 against winning teams, 7-2 after a SU win (including the last four in a row) and 13-3-1 with the Heat laying less than five points in the playoffs. For Atlanta, the under is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 with the Hawks as a ‘dog and 6-2 in the Southeast Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of seven meetings this year – with Saturday’s contest barely staying under the 186½-point posted price – and the under is 6-2 in the last eight battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) at (7) New Orleans (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
The Hornets, who got back on track Saturday, hope to tie up this opening-round postseason series when they once again entertain the Nuggets in Game 4 at New Orleans Arena.
After suffering two straight blowout losses at Denver, New Orleans held on for a 95-93 Game 3 victory, winning a physical contest that featured 58 fouls. Chris Paul had 32 points, 12 assists and five rebounds, and David West had 19 points and nine rebounds. The Hornets ended a four-game SU losing skid, but they failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite skid. Not only have they yet to get the cash in this series, but they’re 4-7 ATS in their last 11 overall (3-8 SU).
Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets with 25 points in Game 3, but point guard Chauncey Billups (16 points) finally cooled off Saturday after scoring 36 and 31 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2. Denver lost for just the third time in its last 14 starts (10-4 ATS) but still moved to 3-0 ATS in this series. Also, the Nuggets remain on a 16-4 SU run (12-8 ATS).
Denver is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS against New Orleans this season, cashing in five of the last six meetings, including the last four in a row. The favorite is on a 6-2 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the home team is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, though the Nuggets have gotten the money in their last two outings in the Big Easy.
New Orleans is 29-13 SU (19-22-1 ATS) at home this season. Denver, which hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and is still just 6-24 SU in its last 30 playoff contests, is 21-21 SU (22-20 ATS) on the road this year.
The Hornets remains on a bundle of pointspread purges, including 2-6 overall, 0-6 against the Northwest Division, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 after a SU win, 2-8 against the Western Conference and 2-7 laying points. However, New Orleans remains on positive ATS runs of 8-3 as a playoff chalk and 8-2 when laying less than five points in the postseason.
The Nuggets have cashed in four of their last five starts dating to the regular season and are on further positive ATS streaks of 11-4 overall, 11-3 against the West, 10-3 against winning teams, 4-1 after a day off, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 5-0 against the Southwest Division. But they still carry negative ATS runs of 3-13 as a playoff underdog and 3-8 in first-round playoff games.
The under for New Orleans is on stretches of 15-7 overall, 8-2 at home, 10-4 with the Hornets favored, 7-2 with the Hornets as a home chalk and 9-2 coming off a SU win. Likewise, the under for Denver is on rolls of 6-1 on the road, 20-7 in first-round playoff games, 20-8 with the Nuggets getting points and 17-4 with the Nuggets as a playoff underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(8) Utah (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Lakers return to the Staples Center looking to put the finishing touches on their first-round series against the Jazz, who face a win-or-go-home situation in Game 5.
After suffering a last-second 88-86 loss as a two-point road favorite in Game 3 on Thursday, Los Angeles bounced back with a dominating effort in Game 4 on Saturday, rolling to a 108-94 win as a five-point road chalk. Kobe Bryant led the way with 38 points – 20 more than he had in his team’s Game 3 loss – while Lamar Odom (10 points, 15 rebounds) and Pau Gasol (13 points, 10 boards) contributed double-doubles. The Lakers, who shot 52 percent from the floor Saturday, took control by outscoring the Jazz 68-44 in the second and third quarters.
Los Angeles has now won 10 of its last 12 games overall, but is just 7-5 ATS during this stretch. Additionally, Phil Jackson’s squad is riding an eight-game home winning streak and is 15-1 in its last 16 at Staples Center, but only 8-8 ATS.
Utah once again got stellar performances from point guard Deron Williams (23 points, 13 assists) and power forward Carlos Boozer (23 points, 16 rebounds) in Game 4, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the team’s fourth loss in its last five games, all against the Lakers. The Jazz are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests overall, including five straight losses on the road (1-4 ATS). Stretching back even further, Jerry Sloan’s squad is in slumps of 3-10 SU and 6-16 ATS.
By winning Game 4 in Salt Lake City, the Lakers ended a six-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry (all coming this season). Still, the host has taken 11 of the last 13 head-to-head battles and is 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 series clashes. Overall, going back to Game 5 of last year’s playoff series between these squads, Los Angeles is 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) against the Jazz and it has defeated Utah 11 straight times at Staples Center (9-2 ATS). Finally, the favorite has gotten the money in five of the last seven meetings.
For the season, the Lakers are 38-5 in their building but just 21-22 ATS. The Jazz are 15-28 on the road (18-25 ATS), including 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS in 15 road games against Western Conference playoff teams.
Utah is still on ATS surges of 10-5 in first-round playoff games, 10-4 when coming off a double-digit home loss and 19-7 on Monday. After that, though, the pointspread trends are all negative, including 4-12 overall, 1-4 on the road, 5-16 as an underdog, 2-14 as a road pup, 4-11 against the Western Conference and 4-14 against teams with a winning record.
Games 3 and 4 in Salt Lake stayed under the total, snapping a string of eight consecutive “overs” in this rivalry. Still, the over is 19-8 in the last 27 series clashes and 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles (5-0 in the last five).
Additionally, as it pertains to the total, Utah remains on “over” runs of 10-4 overall, 9-0 on the road 8-2 against winning teams, 9-4 versus the Western Conference, 35-19 versus the Pacific Division, 20-6-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on Monday. Finally, the Lakers’ “over” streaks include 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-2 against the Northwest Division, 8-2 versus teams with a winning record, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-0 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (11-7) at N.Y. Mets (8-10)
The suddenly freefalling Marlins get their first look at new Citi Field when they send Anibal Sanchez (1-1, 2.50 ERA) to the mound against the Mets’ John Maine (0-2, 7.47) in the opener of a three-game series between N.L. East rivals.
Florida started the season 11-1 but it has followed that up with six consecutive losses, including Sunday’s ugly 13-2 home setback to the Phillies. The Marlins’ slide began with a three-game sweep at Pittsburgh and continued this weekend when they got swept by Philadelphia, giving up 26 runs, In fact, Florida has surrendered 44 runs during its slump. Still, the Marlins are on impressive streaks of 6-0 as an underdog, 20-7 against N.L. East rivals and 7-3 on the road.
New York failed to complete a three-game sweep of Washington at home when it got blitzed 8-1 on Sunday. The Mets have dropped five of their last seven and have yet to win more than two straight games this season, and they’re only 5-4 in their new ballpark. They’re also just 5-13 in their last 18 games on Monday and 1-5 in their last six against right-handed starters.
Florida took two of three from the Mets in South Beach earlier this month, but the teams have split their last 20 meetings since the start of last season.
Sanchez suffered his first loss of the season Tuesday at Pittsburgh, falling 3-2 despite giving up just the three runs in seven innings. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in the road in two starts, but Florida has lost eight of his last 10 starts on the highway and seven of his last 10 against divisional foes.
Sanchez’s first start of the season came against the Mets on April 10, and he yielded just four hits and three walks in five scoreless innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 5-4 win. For his career, he’s 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in four starts against New York, with Florida going 3-1.
Maine’s 2009 debut came against Sanchez on April 10 and he also went just five innings, allowing two runs and two hits. Since then, however, the veteran right-hander has gotten lit up in two outings, allowing 11 runs (all earned), 14 hits and eight walks in 10 2/3 innings, losing 6-5 to the Padres at home and 5-2 at St. Louis on Wednesday.
The Mets are 0-5 in Maine’s last five trips to the mound since last year (all as a favorite), but they’ve won 23 of his last 30 against N.L. East rivals. Also, despite the April 10 loss in Florida, Maine is still 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against the Fish.
Seven of the last eight Mets-Marlins battles have stayed under the total. Also, Florida is on “under” streaks of 9-1 as an underdog, 4-0 with Sanchez on the mound overall and 5-1-1 when Sanchez pitches on the road. New York sports “under” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 7-1-1 against the N.L. East.
On the flip side, the over is 11-4-3 in Maine’s last 18 starts overall, 8-0-1 in his last nine starts at home, 4-1-1 in Maine’s last six against the Marlins, 10-3-3 in the Mets’ last 16 games on Monday and 15-6-2 in Florida’s last 23 Monday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-9) at Detroit (10-8)
After getting swept by the hated Red Sox in Fenway Park over the weekend, the Yankees look for ace C.C. Sabathia (1-1, 4.81) to get them back on track in the opener of a three-game series against the Tigers. Detroit is set to hand the ball to slumping veteran Justin Verlander (0-2, 9.00).
New York took a three-game winning streak to Boston, only to get outscored 25-16 in losing three straight, including Sunday’s 4-1 setback. The Yankees, who have surrendered 75 runs in their last nine games, are now 5-7 on the road this season, and they’ve lost 11 of their last 14 Monday contests. On the bright side, the Bronx Bombers are on runs of 21-11 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1 as road chalk, 10-4 against the Central Division and 17-9 when playing on grass.
The Tigers return home after completing a nine-game road trip with back-to-back wins in Kansas City (9-1 on Saturday, 3-2 on Sunday). Jim Leyland’s team went 5-4 on the trip and has won four of its first five home games in 2009. Otherwise, though, Detroit is on slides of 19-40 as an underdog, 6-13 versus southpaw starters, 1-4 against the A.L. East, 0-5 on Monday and 6-21 in series openers.
The road team won five of the six meetings between these teams last season, with the Tigers taking the season series 4-2. Detroit has won seven of the last 10 against the Yankees since 2007.
The last time Sabathia was on the mound, New York needed 14 innings to beat the A’s 9-7 at home, but the hefty lefty was rocked for seven runs (six earned) in 6 2/3 innings. Sabathia has just one quality start in his first four trips to the mound in pinstripes. In his other three outings, he’s given up 14 runs (13 earned) in 16 2/3 innings (7.02 ERA).
Going back to his days with the Indians, Sabathia is 13-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 26 lifetime starts against Detroit (7-2, 3.80 ERA in 11 outings at Comerica Park). However, in one start against the Tigers last year in Cleveland, the southpaw gave up nine runs in four innings, losing 13-2.
Verlander has gotten off to an even worse start than Sabathia, giving up 24 runs (21 earned) on 27 hits and nine walks in 21 innings. On Wednesday in Los Angeles, he surrendered seven runs in five innings, but the Tigers bailed him out in a 12-10 victory. Going back to last season, Verlander has gone 10 straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer).
Verlander’s only decent start this season came at home, when he held Texas to three runs (one earned) on two hits in five innings, with Detroit winning 4-3. He’s 2-1 with a 6.63 ERA in four career regular-season starts against the Yankees. The Tigers are 13-5 in Verlander’s last 18 efforts against teams from the A.L. East, but otherwise with Verlander on the mound, Detroit is mired in slumps of 0-5 on Monday and 2-7 when he’s an underdog.
The Yankees are on “over” streaks of 4-1 against right-handed starters, 4-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-1 on Monday. Meanwhile, Detroit has topped the total in six of its last seven on Monday and with Verlander pitching, it is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 8-0 on Monday, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 5-0 when he faces the Yankees.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL
Utah at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to close out a Jazz team that is just 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog. Los Angeles is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-12 1/2).
Game 535-536: Atlanta at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.137; Miami 122.641
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Under
Game 537-538: Denver at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.928; New Orleans 119.697
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Over
Game 539-540: Utah at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 114.666; LA Lakers 128.895
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 14; 217
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12 1/2; 211
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-12 1/2); Over
MLB
Florida at NY Mets
The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog and face a Mets team that is 0-5 in John Maine's last 5 starts as a favorite. Florida is the underdog pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140).
Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 15.739; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.490
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Under
Game 953-954: St. Louis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 14.593; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.240
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Under
Game 955-956: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.118; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.336
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under
Game 957-958: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.843; NY Mets (Maine) 13.140
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+140); Under
Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 15.185; Milwaukee (Looper) 16.668
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over
Game 961-962: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 13.770; Colorado (Hammel) 14.833
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago Cubs at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 14.036; Arizona (Haren) 14.811
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.827; San Francisco (Zito) 14.633
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.879; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.382
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 11
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+140); Under
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.364; Detroit (Verlander) 14.857
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Over
Game 971-972: Boston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.124; Cleveland (Lee) 16.223
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Under
Game 973-974: Toronto at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Purcey) 14.986; Kansas City (Bannister) 16.362
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-125); Over
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.418; Minnesota (Baker) 14.631
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Under
Game 977-978: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Jakubaus) 15.781; White Sox (Danks) 14.667
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+170); Over
NHL
Chicago at Calgary
The Flames look to tie up the series against a Chicago team that is just 3-13 in its last 16 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Calgary is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-135).
Game 63-64: Chicago at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.052; Calgary 11.933
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-135); Under
Game 65-66: San Jose at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.502; Anaheim 10.081
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-125); Under
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
I'm playing the Over in the Tampa Bay/Minnesota game on Monday night. I’ve noticed for years that early season night games tend toward the Over in the Metrodome. They don’t use air conditioning until later in the season. Visibility seems to be very good (contrasted to daytime when light comes through the dome awkwardly). This year, night games are already 7-2 to the Over in this park (day games 0-2 to the Under, by the way). Tonight, we have two struggling pitchers on the mound. Jeff Niemann of Tampa Bay has a 5.40 ERA this season, having allowed three homers and 25 baserunners in just 16.2 innings. Scott Baker of Minnesota is working his way back from an injury, and has an ugly ERA of 12.46 for the year. He’s allowed seven home runs in 8 2/3 innings! Both offenses should light up both pitchers in a good hitting environment. If each team gets to five runs, we win. Either could do most of the damage all by themselves. The average night game in this park so far has totaled 11.5 runs this year. And that's what the line should be at the very least. The Over in the Tampa Bay/Minnesota game is the play.
Play on: OVER
Vegas Experts
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have jumped all over the Atlanta Hawks since their Game One beat down in Atlanta winning the previous two by 15 and 29, easily covering in both. Atlanta is in a difficult spot here as they are just 1-10 ATS in road games in the first round of the playoffs and just 1-8 ATS of a double digit road loss. Miami is 19-7 ATS at home against the Hawks over the last 12 seasons and have won 23 of 26 outright. The smart money is on the Miami Heat here at home.
Play on: Miami
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
A winning free play yesterday from handicapper Craig Trapp with Boston winning easily. Today we keep up the hot streak and today we will keep up the hot streak. Check out today's play a great value on the hottest team in the National League!
Records
LA Dodgers 13-6 Wolf 1-1 (4.26 ERA)
SF Giants 8-9 Zito 0-2 (5.63 ERA)
Betting Trends
Dodgers are 11-3 in their last 14 overall.
Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolfs last 7 starts as a favorite.
Giants are 2-6 in Zitos last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
If this is not enough on the side of the Dodgers just keep reading. The Dogers swept the Giants at the beginning of the season and dominated them outscoring them 23-7 in the series. Zito is 5-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 11 starts against Los Angeles. On the other hand Wolf is very good against the Giants with a 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA. The Dogers are tearing the cover off the ball and have dominated the Giants, don't look for things to change tonight. Score LAD 7 - SF 2
LT Profits
Mariners/White Sox
John Danks is off to a fantastic start for the Chicago White Sox, but we feel that he has been pitching over his head so far while the starter for the Seattle Mariners, Chris Jakubauskas, has been atrocious to this point, so look for an Over tonight.
Jakubauskas was shelled by the Tampa Bay Rays for six earned runs and 10 hits while lasting only 3.1 innings in his last start, and he now owns a bloated 7.11 ERA while surrendering a whopping 23 baserunners in 12.2 innings (1.82 WHIP). Keep in mind also that Jakubauskas is a 30-year-old rookie, so do not expect much improvement as he is what his numbers say he is. Thus, the White Sox may approach this total all by themselves.
If that is the case, it may not matter that Danks had a miniscule 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in three starts covering 19 innings. That said, he is not as good as those Cy Young type numbers, and this may be a nice spot to come back down to earth given his last two starts vs. Seattle last season. Danks allowed 10 earned runs and 19 baserunners in just 9.1 innings over those two starts, and the Mariners look to be a much better team this year than last season.
Look for both teams to get their share of runs here, especially the White Sox, resulting in a combined total output of double-digits.
Pick: Mariners/White Sox Over 9
James Patrick Sports
Sharks vs. Ducks
A huge home game for the Anaheim Ducks as they have a chance at home to close out the Sharks in the Battle of California. The Ducks are a solid 20-7 ATS in Monday action and 7-2 when they are installed as underdogs. Our Monday NHL complimentary selection is Anaheim Ducks.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: LA Dodgers w/Wolf vs. Zito
The Dodgers open a 3-game series with their hated rivals in San Francisco where they have come away victors in 13 of the last 20 meetings in this park. With randy Wolf is solid current form and Barry Zito just 2-13 in his last 15 home team starts during April, look for Wolf to ring the register for the 13th time in his last 16 team starts here tonight.
Dave Cokin
Rangers @ Orioles
Play: Orioles
Matt Harrison toils for the Rangers tonight, and if he can't turn around an ugly BB/K ratio, his chances of staying in this game for long won't be good. Harrison has issued 11 free passes with only six K's in less than 15 IP of work this season. Those are play against numbers, so that's the way I'll go here, instead backing Jeremy Guthrie and the Orioles to win this wraparound series finale.
Jim Feist
SAN DIEGO PADRES at COLORADO ROCKIES
Take: SAN DIEGO PADRES
Chris Young is off to a really good start for the surprising Padres. San Diego is in second place in the NL West behind the Dodgers. Young is 2-0 in four starts this season with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Young has struck out 17 while walking just eight on the year. The Padres' bats haven't been anything to brag about for a few seasons now, especially in the pitcher's park they play in. 1B Adrian Gonzalez is having a fine start with a .306 ERA, six home runs and 13 RBI's. Heath Bell has taken over as the closer in the pen and has seven saves this year while allowing no earned runs and just three hits in eight appearances. Meanwhile the Rockies are stuck in last place in the division. It's not difficult to see why when you see their .239 team BA. They have hit 21 HR's in 16 games, but RF Brad Hawpe is hitting above .300 and has double-digit RBI's among the starters. Combine a team pitching ERA of 5.72 to the pathetic hitting and it's no wonder this club has won just five games this season. Don't look for the Rockies to win today either against the Padres #2 starter.
Scott Rickenbach
New York Mets vs Florida
Many remember some of the great runs that Maine has had in the past and, as a result, his name can make people think "under" but he is clearly not pitching well so far this season. Also, he's facing a Marlins team that will be anxious to bounce back after getting swept at home by the Phillies. The Marlins send Sanchez to the mound tonight and he faces a Mets offense that is much better than you would think based solely on the runs they've scored. They're hitting for a high average and that's eventually going to translate to more runs. Also, the Mets are hungry to bounce back after yesterday's disappointing home loss.
Additionally, the early reviews are showing that Citi Field is favorable to the hitters and we look for this game to be much higher scoring than most are anticipating. Sanchez has good numbers this season and Maine has strong long-term numbers. That is resulting in leans to the under here but this one should feature plenty of offense and we get good line value on the total here. Consider a small play on OVER the total in the New York Mets game as a regular selection.
Jimmy The Moose
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat
After dropping Game 1 the Heat have run over the Hawks winning Games 2 and 3 by 15 and 29 point margins. Hawks have struggled in Miami going 3-13 ATS last 16 trips and 9-23 ATS last 32 meetings overall. Miami has been tough at home cashing in 7 of the last 9 at the window. Look for the Heat to continue their dominace over the Hawks. Play on Miami -.
Carlo Campanella
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
After being embarrassed by that 64-90 Game #1 loss at Atlanta, Miami has rebounded with back-to-back winning efforts to gain a 2-1 series advantage, returning that blowout loss to Atlanta by winning at home, 107-78 in Game #3. Miami is now 5-2 SU & ATS as hosts in this series and expect them to continue the momentum by cashing again on Monday as we find the Hawks at 1-10 ATS on the road during first round Playoff games.
7* Play On Miami
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +125
Detroit is 4-1 at home this season and I'll back the Tigers tonight against a Yankees team that really misses A-Rod in the middle of the order. While Verlander has struggled early on, the Tigers are 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the Yankees. In fact, The Yankees are just 2-6 in the last 8 meetings and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. Verlander has been at his best against the AL East as the Tigers are 13-5 in his last 18 starts vs. the American League East. After getting swept by the Red Sox, the Yankees are now just 2-5 in their last 7 road games and Monday has proven to be a good night of the week to fade the Bronx Bombers as they are just 3-11 in their last 14 Monday games. I'll back Detroit at home at a good price tonight.
Nick Parsons
Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames -140
It must be frustrating for the Flames to know that the only way they can get to the second round of the playoffs is to book a trip back to Chicago. Nothing has gone right there for the Flames this season. Yet, that's the road ahead of them if they can win Game 6 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series Monday night at the Saddledome; a place that they've dominated in for years, and a strong trend in which I believe will continue this evening! Pretty much evenly matched across the board, I believe home ice advantage will be the deciding factor this evening, and think this is a very reasonable price; look for CALGARY to improve to 13-9 (+1.4 units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous game!