Frank Jordan
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are 9-8 and have won just 4 of their last 10 as they head out West to Arizona. Chicago is 5-4 on the road and they are sending 2-1 Ted Lilly out to start who has an ERA under 2.50. Arizona is 7-11 and has played a bulk of their games at home where they are 6-9. They are sending Dan Haren to the mound who has pitched in the worst of luck as he is 1-3 with an era of 1.38. Haren has gone either 6 or 7 innings in each of his 4 starts, struck out 6 or more batters in 3 out of 4 starts, walked a total of 5 batters, given up a total or 4 runs and has lost 3-0, 3-1, 2-0 and finally won last time out 2-0. Look for the poor run support to continue as Lilly baffles the Dbacks hitters and the Cubs push across a couple of runs for the win. Play Chicago Cubs
Tom Freese
Chicago at Arizona
Chicago is 18-8 their last 26 games vs. a starter that has a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 10-4 vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Cubs are 20-8 in the last 28 starts made by Ted Lilly with four days of rest. Arizona is 4-10 vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 1-7 their last 8 games vs. lefty starters. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 off a win and they are 1-4 with Dan Haren vs. a team that scored 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON CHICAGO + (Lilly vs. Haren)
Nelly
Pittsburgh + over Milwaukee
The Pirates are 11-7 while Milwaukee is 8-10 yet the Brewers play as a fairly steep favorite in tonight's game. So far Braden Looper has been a great pick-up for the Brewers but he has just nine strikeouts and seven walks in his three starts and opponents are getting on base at fairly high rate against him although he has given up only four runs. Looper has not been able to go deep into games however which could leave open some risk with a suspect Milwaukee bullpen.
Through 18 games the Pirates have scored 13 more runs than Milwaukee while allowing 28 fewer runs as Pittsburgh is a very legit 11-7 and statistically should actually have an even stronger record. On the season Pittsburgh is hitting .274 compared with just .251 for Milwaukee and the Brewers are hitting just .231 at home while going just 2-4 at Miller Park. Milwaukee had great success against the Pirates last season but these are completely different teams and Milwaukee has struggled despite getting a recent boost with a four-game win streak.
Jeff Karstens has made two capable starts so far this season, allowing only one run and three hits in his last outing to beat Florida. Karstens pitched well in two games against the Brewers last season although Pittsburgh lost both of those games. The Pirate bullpen has been outstanding this season with a 2.85 ERA and closer Matt Capps has been perfect in save situations. Pittsburgh does face long travel after playing in San Diego Sunday but the Pirates have won seven of the last nine overall yet are playing as a very big dog in tonight's game. Milwaukee has been on the road and the Brewers have not been hitting consistently enough to deserve that price.
Ben Burns
St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Both teams saw winning streaks snapped yesterday and both will be anxious to "get back on track" in this evening's series opener. While the Cardinals bring the better record to the table, I expect the Braves to have the advantage.
St Louis' Pineiro (3-0) has a better record than Atlanta's Jurrjens, who comes in at 2-1. However, a closer look reveals that Jurrjens has actually pitched better. While Pineiro has a mediocre 4.12 ERA, Jurrjens has an exceptional 1.42 mark. His record would be better if he'd gotten any kind of run support. Indeed, Jurrjens is 0-1 over his last two starts, despite allowing only 10 hits and one run through 14 1/3 innings.
Jurrjens should finally get some more help this evening. Pineiro gave up 12 baserunners and five runs (9.00 ERA, 2.40 WHIP!) in his lone road start and he's got an awful 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP as a starter vs. the Braves. In his lone start here at Atlanta, he allowed 10 hits (2 HRs) and six runs. He was the losing pitching in a 9-4 Braves' victory. While the Cards did win Pineiro's lone road start this season, they're still just 1-3 the last four times that he pitched away from St. Louis.
MTi Sports
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Red Sox are 1-9 since September 21, 2005 when Tim Wakefield starts on the road after he had a WHIP of less than one at home in his last start and the Indians are 24-4 when Cliff Lee starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings, giving up no home runs and fewer than three runs in his last start. Take Cleveland.
Larry Ness
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Cubs ended a four-game slide on Sunday, banging out 14 hits in a 10-3 win over the Cards. The win gets the Cubs back over .500, at 9-8. Meanwhile, the D'backs avoided getting swept at home by the Giants on Sunday, rallying with three runs in the ninth inning and then winning on a bases-loaded single in the 12th (5-4). Scoring has been a problem all year for the D'backs, as they are batting an NL-worst .223 and their 63 runs scored (3.5 per) is only ahead of the Giants, who have scored 60 runs. No one has felt the 'pain' of the team not scoring more than Arizona's starter tonight, Dan Haren. Haren is coming off an excellent first season with the D'backs, going 16-8 with a 3.33 ERA last year in 33 starts (team was 20-13, including 12-5 at home). He's just 1-3 in four starts in 2009, despite allowing just 18 hits and four ERs over 26 innings, with a ratio of 26 strikeouts to just four walks. Haren's job may be a little easier than he first though tonight, as Aramis Ramirez (.358 3 HRs 14 RBI) is out with a calf injury and Derrek Lee left yesterday's game with neck spasms. He's doubtful for this game, although Cubs manager Lou Piniella said he will likely not go on the DL. However, Haren will need some offensive help. That's hardly a guarantee, as Chicago's Ted Lilly has really stepped up his game for the Cubs these last two seasons. Lilly was 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 2007 (team was 19-15 in his starts) and then 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA last year, while the Cubs went an impressive 22-12 in those starts. His first start of '09 was not a good one (5 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs) at Houston, although he did earn a win in Chicago's 11-6 victory. He's been much better in his last two outings, allowing just six hits and one ER over 13.2 innings (0.66 ERA), despite only winning one of the two. He's 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA to open '09. The D'backs were 12-6 vs lefties at home last year (5.1 RPG) but have opened this year just 1-5 vs left-handers at home, averaging just 2.7 RPG. While the D'backs have hardly gotten off to a good start this year (7-11 overall, including 6-9 at home), Sunday's comeback win could spark a turnaround. After all, the D'backs did go 98-64 (.605) the last two season here in Chase Field. Haren's been very good so far and is overdue to get some support. Take the D'backs.
Jeff Benton
Chicago Cubs at ARIZONA -140
Came up just short with the Blue Jays on the run-line against the White Sox on Sunday, but I’m still 20-11 with my last 31 feebies, including 11-5 with the last 16. We’ll get back in the win column Monday by playing the DBacks against the Cubs.
Both of these teams have been extremely disappointing so far in 2009, but at least three factors favor Arizona here: It is healthier than Chicago, it has the home-field edge at Chas Field (where the Cubs have struggled for years) and it has the pitching advantage with ace Dan Haren matching up against Ted Lilly.
Start with the health issue. The Diamondbacks are minus shortstop Steven Drew (on the DL), but the Cubs are without two sluggers for sure (third-baseman Aramis Ramirez and oft-injured outfielder Milton Bradley are on the shelf), while a third Cubbie – first baseman Derrek Lee – left yesterday’s game in St. Louis with neck spasms and is doubtful for this game. Losing three everyday players who are former All-Stars is never good, but it’s especially troubling when considering Chicago has lost 27 of its last 35 games at Chase Field in the desert!
It’s also troubling when facing a pitcher the quality of Haren. Although Haren is just 1-3 to start the season, it hasn’t been his fault, as he’s given up just four runs in 26 innings (1.38 ERA) with a 26-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The problem for Haren? His anemic offense has produced a total of three runs in his four starts. Will that change tonight against Ted Lilly, who has allowed just one unearned run and six hits in his last two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings? I think so, because Lilly’s last two outings came at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in. Tonight, Lilly pitches in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball – where he’s given up 11 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings (6.46 ERA) in his last three visits.
Also, Lilly’s first (and worst) start of the year came on the road at Houston, where he gave up five runs in five innings. Throw in the fact that the home team has won nine of the last 11 in this rivalry (including the 2007 playoffs which Arizona won in a three-game sweep) and I’ll back Haren and the DBacks at this cheap price against the depleted Cubs.
4♦ ARIZONA
Bobby Maxwell
Boston +105 at CLEVELAND
Today's FREE winner from the diamond is coming on the Red Sox as they travel to Cleveland to take on the Indians.
Winners of 10 straight, the Red Sox now head to Cleveland after a three-game sweep over their New York rivals. We get a chance to get a great price with Boston tonight and we're going to take advantage of it.
Boston just beat the Yankees 4-1 on Sunday night and now they go to Cleveland with veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield set to take the mound. Wakefield is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA this season and he just pitched seven innings in his last outing, a 10-1 home win over the Twins.
Last season's Cy Young winner Cliff Lee is on the mound for the Indians but he is off to a slow start this season, going 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA. In two of his four starts, he's allowed four runs or more and then he lost his last outing, allowing two runs on nine hits as the Tribe lost 2-0 to the Royals.
The Indians have dropped the last three starts Lee has made against the Red sox and he hasn't looked good. Even in his magical season last year he allowed five runs on nine hits in seven innings of a 5-4 loss to Boston.
Red-hot Red Sox win this one.
3♦ BOSTON
Utah +12' at L.A. LAKERS
The Lakers are likely going to wrap up this series tonight in Los Angeles, but they won't be doing it by this many points. Utah is the type of team that will fight to the finish, they aren't going to pack it in like the Pistons did against the Cavaliers. The Jazz have a stronger mental framework and they will battle until the final buzzer sounds.
Los Angeles leads 3-1 after destroying Utah 108-94 on Saturday night in Salt Lake City as Kobe Bryant established his dominance with the first 11 points of the game, finishing with 38 on the night after he went 5-of-24 from the field two nights earlier in Utah.
Remember the first two games of this series, the Lakers barely got the cover in Game 1 and then Utah sneaked under the number and cashed in Game 2. Los Angeles is just 21-22 ATS at home this year, even though they are 38-5 SU. They've had a problem all season covering big numbers and that will come into play tonight.
The Jazz are on ATS runs of 10-5 in first-round playoff games, 10-4 when coming off a double-digit home loss and 19-7 on Mondays.
This is the last game of this series but it won't be an easy win and cover for the Lakers. Grab all these points and play the Jazz.
4♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at MIAMI -4'
NBA postseason tonight, and I am all over Miami to dump Atlanta once again.
You would think Atlanta's playoff experience from a season ago when they pushed the Celtics to the limit would help the Hawks be better prepared this postseeason, but it sure looks like it hasn't at all.
Atlanta got drilled for the second straight time, 107-78 on Saturday, as the Hawks have now lost ALL 4 of their playoff road games dating back to last year.
The G-Man does not see an end to that streak, as the Hawks have also struggled in this series in a big way, sporting a 3-13 spread mark the last 16 played in Miami, and a 9-23 overall spread mark the last 32 series games contested.
Miami has gone a solid 7-2 against the spread their last 9 at home, and until the G-Man sees concrete evidence that Atlanta can actually win on the road at this time of the year, I will fade them.
Take the Heat!
1♦ MIAMI
Sports Gambling Hotline
Atlanta at MIAMI -4'
NBA comp play tonight on Miami minus the points over Atlanta.
The Heat have bounced-back from a Game One blowout loss by posting consecutive double-digit wins in this series, and a third is on the horizon tonight.
Miami is now 7-2 against the spread their last 9 homes games, and they are also a money-turning, 13-3 against the math their last 16 home meetings against the Hawks.
Overall, Miami is 23-9 against the math the last 32 series showdowns, and it looks to us like the Hawks do not have a clue as to the adjustments they need to make to get this series back home tied at 2.
D-Wade is the best player on the floor, and last time we checked, he was wearing a Miami unoform.
We will lay the home number, and roll with the Heat in this one!
3♦ MIAMI
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the points with the Hawks.
When I first looked at this number I said to myself that there is no way the Hawks would be able to compete today on the road. After all they looked terrible at home in game two and then completely fell apart in game three, looking as inept and pathetic as a team can ever look in that almost 30 point burial.
Dwyane Wade is the best player on the court, if not the planet, and the Heat feel absolutely great about themselves after rebounding from the egg they layed in game one. Also Erik Spoelstra's team has been very solid at home all season long and Mike Woodson's Hawks have not been good at all away from Philips Arena.
With all of the above said this is still the NBA and we see teams rebound after looking dead and that is going to be the case here. The Hawks are still a solid team, no not nearly as good as the world seemed to believe after the game one win, but Johnson, Bibby, Horford, Smith, Williams and a few others are certainly good enough to compete after that last embarassment.
We saw the Heat rebound after that pathetic first game and I think that Atlanta will do the same. It will be hard to win this game for the visitors it really will but this is their series right here in a nutshell and after winning 47 games on the season and coming of of that horrific last game I do believe these professionals will come with game and compete until the very end.
Jake Timlin
Take the Jazz plus the points tonight as while I see a Los Angeles sweep I expect for Utah to stay inside the large number. Throwing out the home team has dominated this series ATS over the year and going with the fact that I just don’t feel like the Lakers will be motivated to win by 12 plus points. Add to that I still like the fact that Utah has enough talent to keep things inside the number just like they did in game two of the series in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, for the Lakers once they go up big I fully expect for them to put it on cruise control which will keep the back door wide open for the Jazz. So while I look for the Lakers to win big tonight I see Utah getting the cash in late. With that take the Jazz plus the points!
PICK: Utah Jazz
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore / Texas over 11
The Over is 10-4-1 in Rangers last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter, while the Over is 41-19-4 in Orioles last 64 games vs. a left-handed starter. Both teams have the potetial to score plenty of runs as Texas is 3rd in scoring at 6.1 rpg, while Blatimore is 9th in scoring at 5.5 rpg and today those offenses will take aim at some crappy pitching. Matt Harrison has made 18 career starts and he has 6.04 ERA in those starts. An interesting side note is that despite the poor ERA he has a winning 9-5 record and that has translated into his games averaging 14.3 rpg. Matt has faced the O's once here and that game put up 22 runs. Jeremy Guthrie has a winning record this year, despite his 5.16 ERA, as 11.3 rpg have been scored in his starts. Jeremy has faced the Rangers at home twice and 12 rpg have been scored in those games. Yesterday 13 runs were scored by these teams and I see this one exceding that number as both offenses will have a field day vs some bad pitching.
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City / Toronto Over 9
The Over is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 during game 1 of a series, while the Over is 8-1-1 in Bannisters last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 4-1-1 in his last 6 starts overall. David Purcey has just 16 career starts, but he has an ERA of 5.67 in those starts and that includes a 6.10 ERA in his 4 starts this year. David's starts have averaged 12.3 rpg overall and 12 rpg on the road. Brian Bannister didn't allow a run in his first start, but he does have a 5.79 ERA in 1 starts vs the Jays. The Royals are not a great offensive team, but they should have good success vs Purcey today, while Toronto's top ranked scoring offense should get enough runs to push this one over the total.
2 UNIT PLAY
Chicago +126 over ARIZONA
The Cubs are 10-2 in Lillys last 12 starts during game 1 of a series, while the Diamondbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Cubs broke a 4 game slide with a big win over the Cards yesterday and they should make it 2 in a row here. Ted Lilly has pitched well for the Cubs this year, as he is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA, while in 8 games vs lefty starters the D-Backs are scoring just 2 rpg and hitting just .171 vs them. Pitiful. cubs should take this one easily.
1 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+120) Over Washington
I think that 9th inning vs the Marlins on Friday really jumpstarted the phils offense as they have now scored 26 runs in their last 19 innings. Now they faced the 22nd ranked staff and their hot hitting should continue. Joe Blanton has not had a good start, but the Phils bats will give him plenty of run support as they win easily.
Mister A
Florida Marlins +135
Los Angeles Dodgers -135
Miami Heat -4½
Denver Nuggets +2½
Utah Jazz +12½
Dennis Macklin
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
We knew that Cinn's Johnny Cueto was the goods after last year's break out season. This kid could be any kind of pitcher if The Lizard manages his innings. Cueto 1-0 and 0.77 in last two starts including 2-1 over Astros and Oswalt ten days ago. Bucking history as Oswalt is 22-1 LT vs reds but the Astro fire baller has struggled and appears a little long in the tooth. Homestanding Reds on the improve and get the money here in what's pretty much a pick'em.