Dave Malinsky
Mariners (RL) @ White Sox (RL)
PICK: White Sox (RL)
Yes, the Mariners are 12-7 and leading the A.L. West. But we have made our feelings about them known pretty well already, and the chance to get an underdog return here on a game that should break wide open is impossible to pass up.
Despite that winning record, Seattle has not hit. The Mariners are 12th in the A.L. in batting average; tied for 12th in runs; tied for dead last in doubles; tied for 13th in home runs; and 12th in walks. But do not pencil that as a slump – they are simply that bad. And it is not as though they have been mowed down by Cy Young contenders – unless James Shields or Joe Saunders come around, they will have gone 19 games without facing an All Star starter. That changes tonight against John Danks, who has been every bit as good as his 2-0/0.95 would indicate, with only nine hits allowed in 19 innings, and more than twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed. Pencil a lot of goose eggs next to the Seattle name on the scoreboard.
And pencil in a lot of runs for Chicago. At the age of 30 it would have been a great human interest story if Chris Jakubauskas could finally hang on in a Major League rotation, but the stuff simply is not there. In two home starts against slumping Angel and Ray offenses the Mariners were whipped by a combined 10 runs, and the 0-2/8.64 contribution by Jakubauskas in those games may be even worse than it appears. Not only was he cuffed for 15 hits in those early exits, but he had more fly ball outs than strikeouts and ground outs combined. You know how we feel about that latter ratio, but he was protected on both nights by April at Safeco Field. Now he has to take to a tough foreign mound in a park where fly balls are often caught by fans, particularly when they are hit by that tough middle of the White Sox batting order. It makes for a difficult challenge for a guy that can not miss Major League bats (only six strikeout of the 60 hitters he has faced), and it also means an early appearance from a Seattle middle relief corps that is not well-set for tonight, with Mark Lowe a question mark off of back-to-back outings; Sean White an almost certain scratch off of 37 Sunday pitches; and Roy Corcoran also a question mark after 27 tosses yesterday.
Lee Kostroski
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Over 10
It might be hard to believe but the Nationals have actually been the better hitting team in this match-up despite producing only four wins. Washington is hitting .265 on the season, while scoring close to 4.5 runs per game. The Nationals have lost five one-run games already this season so they are likely a better team than the record indicates and for the most part the offense has been productive. Philadelphia’s offense has been scoring at a great rate, with the second most runs scored in the National League. Philadelphia has allowed only two fewer runs than they have scored however so the Phillies have been involved in many high scoring games.
The ‘over’ is 11-5-1 in Philadelphia games this season and Washington has also slightly leaned to the ‘over’ on the season. Washington’s pitching has been a disaster away from home with a team ERA of 7.03 in road games. Shairon Martis has deceptively respectable numbers with a 4.11 ERA with a 2-0 record but his WHIP is a dangerous 1.50 as he has walked seven and allowed 16 hits in just 15 innings. His lone road start did not go well, allowing three runs in three innings and there is not much support in the bullpen as Washington has blown four saves this season and Washington is 0-6 in games decided by relievers.
The Phillies have scored five or more runs in ten of the last 13 games and although the Phillies have a poor home record at this point in the season, Citizens Bank Park has the third highest ballpark OPS in the NL. Joe Blanton is getting close to pitching himself out of the rotation as he has allowed 25 hits in just 14 innings this season, and his ERA is 7.31. The Nationals hit Blanton hard earlier this season and the Philadelphia bullpen has not been quite as sharp as last season. Look for a high scoring game between two teams that have been hitting well, but two teams that have not received great pitching in 2009.
Wunderdog
Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -190
John Danks is on his way to being one of the top pitchers in the AL. After closing '08 with an ERA in the low 3's, Danks is allowing less than a run a game this season and allowing just nine hits in 19 innings. The Seattle Mariners are in a tough spot as they are forced to go with minor-league journeyman Chris Jakubauskas. Jakubauskas is a 30-year-old rookie that pitched most of his minor league career in the independent leagues. He has made two major league starts and hasn't been very impressive. Seattle has gotten off to a good start because the top and middle of their rotation has been outstanding, but that role reverses for this one, so I like the White Sox to get the win here.
Dwayne Bryant
Bet: Padres Even
I like the price on San Diego with Chris Young tonight. Young is coming off a 7-inning performance in which he did not allow a run and surrendered only two hits at San Francisco. Young is 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against Colorado, including 3-1 with a 4.20 ERA in six outings at Coors Field. Rockies first baseman Todd Helton, a career .328 hitter batting .255 this season, is 5-for-24 (.208) with five strikeouts in his career against Young.
Jason Hammel gets his first start of the season. Hammel made three relief appearances this season and pitched well, but starting is a lot different. The Padres should be able to get to Hammel after they've seen him for the first time tonight. The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season.
I also have to give the bullpen edge to San Diego. The Padres' pen owns a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Rockies' pen has produced a 5.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
The Padres have struggled a bit at the plate lately, but so has Colorado. The starter and bullpen both favor the Padres, so I'll take San Diego and Young over Colorado and Hammel for a half-unit.
Jack Jones
LA Dodgers -127 over San Francisco Giants
The Giants have won five of their last six after blowing a late lead last night to the Diamondbacks, but they have been playing other poor hitting teams. That won't be the case here tonight when they face the Dodgers, who are batting .291 this year while scoring 5.8 rpg. Barry Zito may have had some success against a poor hitting Padres team last time out, but 10 days ago against the Dodgers he gave up six runs and four walks in five innings of work. It doesn't help Zito's cause that the Dodgers are 4-0 against left-handers this year with a .301 batting average. The Giants just don't have the fire power to keep with the Dodgers, so I'll take the road favorite here tonight.
EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Monday, April 27, 2009
Game: Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets
Sport: NBA
Time: 7:35PM CST
(537) Denver Nuggets -2
The Hornets got a much needed win in game three of this series, but
I look for the Nuggets to pick up the win in this game. This line also
tells me that Vegas thinks they will too as the Hornets are only a 2
point favorite in this game after being a 4 point favorite in game three.
Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 62-53 (54.0%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: LA Dodgers/San Francisco over 8 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
253 - 162 run 60 %
Monday Atlanta Braves
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