DAVE COKIN
CINCINNATI REDS / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take FLORIDA MARLINS
Josh Johnson is on the mound for the Marlins tonight, and that's usually very good news for that team. The Marlins are clearly at their best when he goes, and Johnson has been flat out spectacular. His ratios this season have been astounding. Aaron Harang can also be very tough, but he's not exactly a big winner on the road and he's hardly dominated the Marlins in the past. The number is too big for this to qualify as a service play, but the Marlins are the only way I could play this one.
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take SAN DIEGO PADRES
There's a log jam in the NL West after 1st place LA. You have the Giants, D'backs, Padres and Rockies all two games within each other. Right now the Rockies occupy last place. Colorado has received balanced power from all throughout the lineup as the club has slugged 41 HR's so far this season. The pitching staff has been fair with a staff ERA of 5.21 and 1.553 WHIP. Jorge de la Rosa is still looking for his first win after four starts, though he has pitched well with a 3.57 era and 1.41 WHIP. The problem here might be a blister that de la Rosa has developed on his middle finger of his throwing hand. While de la Rosa isn't expected to miss today's start, blisters can cause control problems. The Padres are coming off a rough outing in LA, but seeing as though LA is perfect at home this season, this isn't a knock against them. The Padres return home tonight where they are 6-4 on the season. Adrian Gonzalez leads San Diego with a .318 BA, nine HR's and 20 RBI. The pitching staff has been decent with a 4.66 ERA and WHIP under 1.50. Kevin Correia looks for his first win also here tonight after four starts. Correia is 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA and has had some control problems with 14 BB's versus just 17 KO's. Have to believe that neither of these clubs will do much this season with suspect batting and average pitching. But with a blister on his hand, we can't count on de la Rosa here. Take the Padres at home here tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona at LA Dodgers
Can't believe we're getting this kind of line on the Dodgers, who are 10-0 at home and will be facing an Arizona club that is hitting under .200 as a team both on the road and against lefties. The Dodgers are averaging nearly seven runs per game here at Chavez Ravine and are collectively hitting .282 vs. southpaws. Arizona does not do well against winning teams, posting a 28-40 mark in that role the last two season. Look for the Dodgers to win their fifth straight.
Play on: LA Dodgers
LT Profits
Orioles / Rays Under 9.5
Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Rays and Adam Eaton of the Baltimore Orioles are both of to disappointing starts, but that actually adds some value to the Under here as both are capable of much better tonight.
Kazmir has some of the best stuff in all of baseball when he is on, but he is prone to control problems, which did him in last start at Minnesota, his second poor outing in three appearances. He did bounce back well with a sparkling effort two starts back though, and he should do the same here.
He did pitch very well vs. Baltimore the last time he faced them, holding the Orioles scoreless on three hits in 5.1 innings in his only start against them last season. He also has the support of a Rays bullpen that owns a nice collective 2.61 ERA in the last 10 games, and ranks ninth in the Major Leagues with a 3.87 pen ERA overall.
As for Eaton, he appeared to turn the corner two starts back when he surrendered only two runs and six hits in 7.1 innings vs. the Chicago White Sox, but he then regressed again in his last starts vs. the Angels. Well, he had a good chance to rebound here, as the Rays could be lethargic after wrapping up a big series with the Boston Red Sox yesterday where the won three out of four games.
Tampa Bay will not be as excited about facing the Orioles, and that could have a direct effect on the total output here.
Pick: Orioles / Rays Under 9.5
Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: Baltimore/Tampa Bay under 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
255 - 166 run 60 %
Mon Toronto Blue Jays
Sun KC Royals TY Sat: Red Sox TY
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(704) Los Angeles Lakers -8
The Lakers swept the regular season series winning and covering
the spread in all four games. The Lakers won both games in Los
Angeles by double figures and I expect the same here. Ron Artest
has been running his mouth and I expect Kobe to try and quite him.
Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 66-54 (55.0%)
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +125
The Pirates are showing excellent value in the home underdog role with Paul Maholm on the hill. The Southpaw is 3-0 on the season with a 3.09 ERA, and he has been even better at home with a 2.77 ERA. Milwaukee swept Pittsburgh at home in their first series of the season against one another, winning two 1-run games. I expect the Pirates to go after some sweet revenge in this series. Pittsburgh is 10-2 against the money line after a game where it had 4 or less hits over the last 2 seasons so I expect the bats to bounce back tonight. Also, Maholm is 16-6 against the money line in his last 22 home games against a division opponent. Lastly, plays against road teams - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a hot starting pitcher - ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, are 42-15 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bucs.
Tom Freese
Texas at Seatlle
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez is 8-3 UNDER in 11 career starts vs. Texas and the Mariners are 14-5-2 UNDER when Hernandez starts Game One of a series. Seattle is 9-4-1 UNDER vs. a pitcher who has a WHIP of under 1.15. Texas is 6-1-1 UNDER when Kevin Millwood pictches with five days of rest. The Rangers are 8-0 UNDER with Millwood vs. an opponent who scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Texas is 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall and they are 6-1 UNDER in Game 1 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Millwood vs. Hernandez)
Wunderdog
Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -135
The Los Angeles Dodgers are flying at home as they stand at a perfect 10-0 on the season. The offense has been lethal as they have produced nearly seven runs a game at home thus far. That has to be an immediate concern for the light-hitting Diamondbacks who have produced just 2.1 runs a game on the road for the season - a major league worst. That puts a lot of pressure on Arizona starter Doug Davis, who has pitched better than his 1-3 record, but when your team scores two per game you're not going to win much. The Dodgers are also the fifth best in baseball producing against lefthanders at 5.5 runs a game. This is a tough spot for the D-Backs, and I'm going with the Dodgers in this one.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -144 over Texas Rangers
Felix Hernandez is 4-0 this year with a 2.38 ERA, but even more impressive is his stretch of scoreless innings that has now reached 19. He hasn't done real well against his opponents in the past, but either has Kevin Millwood. Millwood is 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA the past two seasons against Seattle. The Mariners have been ripping the cover off of the ball lately, tallying 69 hits in their last five games. Texas is hitting just .228 on the road this year, so I'll take the team with the edge at the plate and on the hill tonight.
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at PITTSBURGH +125
I know there's a lot of love out there for the Brewers Yovanni Gallardo right now, and with good reason, as the young righty is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA. He's coming off an impressive effort against these very same Pirates in his last one, tossing 8 scoreless and striking out 11 in the process last Wednesday. However, I just don't see him exerting that kind of dominance in back-to-back starts against this Bucs club. Not to mention, he'll have little room for error being opposed by a motivated Paul Maholm in this one.
Underestimate the Pirates southpaw at your own risk, as he's 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA, and will be plenty motivated after a tough outing against the Brewers in his last one. It was clearly his worst start thus far, and you and I both know he's capable of a much better effort, especially at PNC Park, where he was 7-2 with a 3.36 ERA last season! I know full well the Pirates have lost the last 8 starts he's made against them, but that brings me to my final point...
We all know the Pirates are struggling offensively right now, but so are the Brew Crew. Milwaukee has scored 12 runs and is batting just .228 over their last 5 games, and I believe a motivated Maholm is the last thing this offense needs right now. In the end, we're getting tremendous value with Maholm at home, especially with the everyone falling in love with Gallardo very early on. He'll be rock-solid, but let's not get too carried away, Maholm at plus money, at PNC Park, is rock-solid.
Take Pittsburgh behind Maholm over Milwaukee and Gallardo in this MLB match up.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Michael Cannon
Houston at LA LAKERS -8'
I’m 15-6-1 with my last 22 overall free plays.
Take the Lakers tonight minus the points over the Rockets.
I know Los Angeles has been biding its time waiting for the outcomes of the rest of the first-round matchups, but this team is so good it shouldn’t take them long to get back into rhythm.
The Lakers swept the four-game season series from the Rockets, both SU and ATS. They had two easy wins at Staples Center, 111-82 as a seven-point chalk on Nov. 9 and 93-81 as a 5 ½-point favorite on April 3.
Houston is on ATS slides of 3-9 against the Pacific, 10-24-1 after a spread-cover and 2-6 on the road against teams with winning home records.
Take the Lakers minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
2♦ LA LAKERS
Game Time Sports Advisors
Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Doug Davis has been outstanding in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Dbacks don't hit lefties well but there is a lot of value in this matchup based upon the Dodgers 10-0 home record against the SD, Colorado and the Giants.
CG Betting Consultants
Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Under
Tonight for CG's freebie it is going to be the UNDER in the Cincinnati Reds at the Florida Marlins. In this one you have 2 of the top 15 oitchers in the NL which always calls for an under play according to CG's system which wins 70% of the time. The Reds start (R) Harang 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. The Marlins will start (R) Johnson 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. CG expects a oitching duel, so play the under.
Tony George
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Houston Rockets +8.5
Yes LA swept them 4-0 this season, but LA has some issues with focus and finishing games against Utah, and Houston beat whom I felt was a very good Portland team with basic fundamental team basketball and a strong low post game. LA struggled with good low post teams and Houston’s Ming should be able to pick up lots of easy buckets along the way here against a not 100% Bynum for LA. The Rockets are allowing 88 ppg on defense (last 5 games) and they like to slow the pace, which can disrupt LA. While LA is considered the odds on favorite in everyone’s book, they played 1 solid game against Utah in that series, and the rest of those series games they kinda limped home. Houston is a team that makes few mistakes, play good defense and can hit perimeter shots and eat clock.
Free Play on the Rockets tonight.
Robert Homyak
5 Units on Florida Marlins
The Reds defeated Pittsburgh 5-0 as a -125 favorite on Sunday. The five runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (8.5).
Johnny Cueto pitched eight shutout innings, allowing only four hits while striking out nine for Cincinnati and Ramon Hernandez had three RBI in the win.
The Marlins lost to the Cubs 6-4 as a +135 underdog on Sunday. The 10 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9).
John Baker was 3-4 with a solo home run and three runs scored for Florida, while Ricky Nolasco surrendered five earned runs on eight hits in six innings.
Johnson and the Marlins are 4-1 in games in which he's pitched. Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Marlins are 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 starts with 4 days of rest, 7-1 in Johnsons last 8 starts.
The Reds, Aaron Harang has alternated losses and wins over his five starts. In 32 innings, Harang has allowed 33 hits and 11 earned runs. He was 2-1 in three starts against the Marlins last season, 6.98 earned run average in 19 1/3 innings while striking out 14 and walking four. The Reds are 1-4 in Harangs last 5 starts as a road underdog. 1-7 in Harangs last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in Harangs last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Head to Head
Reds are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Florida.