RJ Robbins
Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
Florida heads home after losing 3 in a row to the Cubs and are 3-10 after starting the season 11-1. J. Johnson takes the mound tonight where he is 2-0 at home with a 0.40 ERA. Cincinnati starter A.Harang did post a 2-1 record last season against the Marlins however his era was over 6.00. FLORDIA-1.49
Scott Rickenbach
Washington vs Houston
Two of the weaker offenses in the National League square off this evening. That said, a total of a 9.5 is too high here. The Nationals have particularly struggled to score runs and Brian Moehler - while he doesn't have dominating stuff - has the ability to mix pitches and keep an overaggressive lineup off balance.
As for John Lannan, we really like the Nationals hurler. He matches up well with the Astros lineup and has enjoyed a number of quality starts when he's healthy. He produces well and the biggest key of all here is that we really don't need anything spectacular out of either starter. The total of 9.5 is quite generous and neither lineup has been very productive this season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Washington on Monday night.
Nelly
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Play: Under
This match-up will feature two of the top pitchers in the American League so far this season. Kevin Millwood has great numbers, with a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP ratio of less than one. Despite Texas being known as a high-scoring offense, none of the five games that Millwood has started played 'over' the total. Millwood has also pitched at least seven innings in every start this year which will limit the opportunities of a marginal Texas bullpen.After years of hopes, Felix Hernandez appears on his way to delivering his first sensational season. Hernandez is already 4-0 on the year and his strikeout numbers are impressive. He has also cut down on walks considerably this year. Seattle's bullpen has been one of the best in baseball with a 2.09 ERA in home games so Texas should have a hard time scoring runs.The Rangers have been mainly productive against left-handers this season as Texas is hitting just .253 against right-handers. Josh Hamilton's trip to the DL has also had a big impact on the numbers as the 'under' is 4-1 in his absence. Seattle's success this season has been built on pitching as the offense is not posting big numbers. Seattle is averaging just one four runs scored per game despite being five games over .500.
Ben Burns
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Both starters bring some ugly numbers to the table. Carmona has a 6.28 ERA. Tallet has a 6.45 ERA, including a 6.60 mark as a starter. Carmona is better than his numbers indicate though and he's coming off a solid (2 runs in 6 2/3 innings) effort. The same can't be said for Tallet, who was rocked for 10 runs in four innings in his last start.
Carmona is 2-0 against the Jays and was dominant in last season's lone start against them. He outpitched Burnett in that game, tossing a complete game 5-hit shutout, en route to a 3-0 Cleveland victory. Including that result, the Indians are 11-5 the last 16 meetings in this series - they swept the Jays here last season. It's also worth noting that the Indians have won 57 of their last 100 against southpaw starters. Consider Cleveland
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez made a HUGE 'splash' in 2005, making 12 starts. His record was just 4-4 but his ERA was 2.67, plus he allowed just 61 hits in 84.1 IP, striking out 77 with only 23 walks. Things did not go as smoothly for him in 2006, as he was 12-14 with a 4.52 ERA, allowing 195 hits in 191 IP. Hernandez was very good in 2007, going 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA, as the team went 21-9 in his starts (plus-$1,020). The Mariners were 88-74 in 2007 and owned MLB's second-best moneyline mark but last year, fell to 61-101, while losing more money than all but one other team in MLB. Hernandez, despite a 3.45 ERA, went just 9-11, as the Mariners fell to 15-16 in his starts (minus-$378). However, Hernandez is off to the best start of his five-year career in 2009, opening 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts (Seattle has won all five). He may be just 4-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Rangers (was 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts last season against them) but I'm not bucking him here. The Rangers will counter with Kevin Millwood, who has opened 2009 pitching well, going 2-2 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts. However, he posted a 1.17 ERA in his first three outings of 2009, while "coming back to earth" somewhat in his last two (15 IP / 15 hits / 3.60 ERA). Millwood is 7-9 with 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts vs Seattle but just 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since last beating them on July 23, 2007. The Mariners are off to a 15-10 start in 2009 (lead AL West by three games), which is quite a turnaround from last year's 101-loss season. If the Mariners weren't coming off a 15-inning game on Sunday, this would have been a bigger play but with Hernandez pitching as well as he has, the Mariners are still worth a small play.
Lee Kostroski
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have only lost consecutive games once this season and at 17-8 St. Louis has the second best record in the NL. The Cardinals are 10-3 at home this season and 11-5 against right-handed starters. In home games this season the Cardinals own a .349 team average against right-handed pitching and through 25 games St. Louis has out-scored opponents by 36 runs. St. Louis has also received drastically superior pitching to the Phillies and the strong road record for Philadelphia is a bit misleading given the schedule at this point in the year.
Not so long ago Kyle Lohse had trouble finding a team to sign him but he has been one of the top pitchers in the National League so far this season, coming off a great year with St. Louis last year. Lohse briefly pitched for the Phillies in 2007 and he beat his former team both times he faced them last season. Lohse has allowed just seven earned runs through five starts this season and at home he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts. The St. Louis bullpen has taken a bit of time to sort out but is getting good results right now as opponents are hitting just .230 against Cardinal relievers.
Joe Blanton has not exactly delivered great results since coming over from Philadelphia. His 4-0 record with the Phillies last season was very misleading as he had very mediocre numbers. Blanton can eat up innings but he has been very hittable, a dangerous situation against one of the top hitting teams in baseball. Opposing hitters are hitting .351 against Blanton this season which has led to his 8.41 ERA and he has allowed six home runs in just 20 innings. The Philadelphia bullpen has not been as effective as it was in last year’s championship run and this is a favorable situation for the Cardinals, coming at a very reasonable price given how tough this stadium has been on opposing teams.
3G-Sports
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Play: Over 5.5
Here we go in game 2 of this Stanley Cup Playoffs Series as 3 goals were scored in the first period of game 1 and then several missed chances. The Penguins and Capitals are Over the Total in 10 of 12 in DC and the Capitals ar Over the Total in 7 of 10 in Monday action and our Monday complimentary selection in NHL Playoff action is Pittsburgh- Washington Over the Total as I look for 6 0r 7 goals scored.
Dennis Macklin
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
King Felix has certain lived up to his phenom hype in 2009 going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA. Seattle has won all five of his starts and he's been particularly sharp in l3 rocking a 1.29 ERA. Texas counters with Kevin Millwood who is 2-2 and 2.13 in his contract year but the ex-Brave/Phil has never been particularly successful vs the M's going 7-9 and 4.49 LT facing Seattle. The Mariner's improve 12-7 series edge at Safeco behind ace their ace, King Felix.
MTi Sports
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 16, 2006 when Jon Lester starts as a DOG in the first game of a series. The Yankess HAVE to be getting too much play here because of the media hype involving the first time Boston is playing in the new Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox are the ones with the line value.
Dwayne Bryant
SEA (-145) vs TEX
Seattle's Felix Hernandez (4-0, 2.38 ERA) has not allowed a run in consecutive starts. Hernandez's scoreless-innings streak is at 19, the longest by a Mariner since J.J. Putz went 22 innings in 2007.
However, Hernandez is 4-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts against the Rangers. He also went 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts last season, walking 20 in 35 2-3 innings.
While Hernandez has struggled of late against Texas, Kevin Millwood (2-2, 2.13) hasn't fared well in recent outings versus Seattle. Millwood is 7-9 with a 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mariners, but 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since beating them on July 23, 2007.
Seattle has a solid edge in the bullpen. Seattle's pen owns a 3.06 ERA on the season and a 2.09 ERA at home. Texas' pen sports a 6.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season and those numbers inflate to a 6.75 ERA and 2.04 WHIP on the road.
Hernandez's troubles against Texas kept this play off my premium card, but given his current form and the bullpen edge, I'm comfortable taking Seattle and Hernandez over Texas and Millwood for a half-unit.
GoodFella
DET (-130) vs MIN
I really like what I have seen from Edwin Jackson this season, as he has never had better command over his pitches at any point of his career. Over Jackson's L/3 starts he has a 1.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.125 in 18 2/3 IP. In two home starts this season, Edwin has a ERA of 3.00 & a WHIP of 1.083. The Tigers face the left-handed Francisco Liriano tonight. Detroit has a 6-2 record vs left-handed starters this season, & the Twins are just 2-7 vs a team with a winning record this season. Liriano is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA and a WHIP of 2.016 in 2 road starts this season. He's allowed 10 hits, 8 walks, 12 ER, in just 8 2/3 IP. Not very good numbers to say the least. Liriano is 2-1 with a 4.93 ERA in seven appearances - five starts - against the Tigers, but 0-1 with an 8.25 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance against them in Detroit. The bullpen numbers are fairly even between these two clubs, with the slight edge going to Detroit, as they do have a bullpen ERA of 4.83 & WHIP of 1.528, compared to Minnesota's bullpen ERA of 5.86 & WHIP of 1.585. I really see a starting pitching advantage here, & clearly Detroit likes to face left-handed starters, & I like the price with the Tigers at home tonight.
Andre Gomes
HOU +8.5 vs LAL
If there is one game that the Rockets may steal it on the road this is 'the game'. The Lakers are happy to face the Rockets in the second round as they avoided the Blazers and with a 4-0 mark in the regular season the public expect a huge blown out for the Lakers.
However I don't think in the same way. In fact I feel that the Lakers aren't prepared for this game as the Rockets will bring the toughness and aggressiveness that the Jazz didn't present vs. Lakers in the first round. It was too easy for the Lakers that they blew some huge leads during the games, they didn't play hard on the defensive end and they didn't keep the level during the 48 minutes?.but still they ease past the Jazz! Note that the real game that the Jazz showed some toughness, the Lakers ended losing the game!
The Rockets hold the young Blazers to 83, 88, 88 and 76 points in the last 4 games and I remember that Portland was one of the most effective offensive teams during the regular season. It's a fact that the Lakers swept the Rockets 4-0 in the regular season but we can't forget some details: Shane Battier didn't play in one of the losses and Ron Artest misses another. Also McGrady played in the first but shot just 1-11 from the field for three and if we discount the first game (rout win) the Lakers beat Houston by an average of 7.7 points a game!
The Lakers are naturally the best team but the Rockets have some weapons that can make some damage to them. Aaron Brooks is coming from a huge series vs. Portland and he quicker than Derek Fisher. Yao Ming will matchup against the struggling Andrew Bynum and we must not forget the duo Artest/Battier that will try to limit Kobe Bryant. The Rockets can make a surprise tonight like they did in Portland in game 1, this game will be more close than most people think and I'm taking them tonight
Jrtips
TEXAS vs. SEATTLE
Felix Hernandez is off to the best start of his five-year career coming off a perfect April, the right-hander looks for his fifth win when the Seattle Mariners open a two-game home series with the Rangers tonight. Hernandez (4-0, 2.38 ERA) allowed four hits and struck out nine in eight scoreless innings of a 9-1 road win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, and Hernandez's scoreless-innings streak reached 19. Although Hernandez has been exceptional this season, he has struggled agaist Texas going 4-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts. He also went 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts last season, walking 20 in 35 2-3 innings. The AL West-leading Mariners (15-10) face Texas (12-12) for the first time this season as Texas is looking for its third straight victory after winning 5-1 over the White Sox on Sunday night. For Texas, Miachael Young had two hits to extend his hitting streak to seven games for the Rangers. Young is hitting .387 (12-for-31) during his run and .308 (12-for-39) versus Hernandez.While Hernandez has struggled of late against Texas, Kevin Millwood (2-2, 2.13) hasn't fared well in recent outings versus Seattle.Millwood is 7-9 with a 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mariners, but 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since Julyy 23, 2007. For Texas, Suzuki is batting .431 (25-for-58) with seven RBIs against Millwood. Both of these pitchers has struggled against their opponents today. There is no way both these pitchers will keep the bats quiet and under 8 runs.
TAKE TEXAS/SEATTLE OVER 8
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +145
The Reds are showing a lot or value at this price tonight when you consider that they are 9-4 on the road this season and that the Fish have lost 3 in a row and 10 of their last 13. Cincy comes in having won 3 of its last 4, with all 3 of those wins being shutouts. The pitching staff is really coming together and the Reds are in good hands with Harang tonight who is 14-6 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Believe it or not, the Reds have owned the Marlins, winning 10 of the last 15 over the last 3 seasons. Bet Cincy here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -129
St. Louis is on fire and I'll back the Red Birds at home tonight with an extra day's rest and a huge advantage in the starting pitching department. Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA while Blanton is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.41. The Cardinals are 11-0 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 5-0 in Lohse's last 5 home starts, and 8-0 in Lohse's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Cards.