SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (7-0 SU and ATS) at (4) Atlanta (4-6 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers go after their second straight playoff sweep when they take on the overmatched Hawks in Game 4 at Philips Arena.
Cleveland coasted once again Saturday, notching a 97-82 victory as a heavy 8½-point road chalk to take a 3-0 series lead. The Cavs killed Atlanta on the boards with a 46-23 advantage and outscored the Hawks 50-36 in the second half after leading by just one at halftime. LeBron James went off for 47 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 14 points and eight boards. Cleveland has won all seven of its playoff games by double digits.
Despite playing on a sprained ankle, Joe Johnson led Atlanta with 21 points and five rebounds, but only two other Hawks reached double digits in scoring. The Hawks went to the free-throw line just 11 times, making seven, while Cleveland was 21-for-29 from the charity stripe. The SU winner has cashed in each of Atlanta’s 10 playoff games, with each of those contests decided by double digits.
Cleveland, allowing a suffocating 78.7 ppg in the playoffs while scoring 96.4, is now 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in the season series with Atlanta. The favorite has cashed in 19 of the last 27 meetings, and the Cavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 visits to Philips Arena. However, the home team is still 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
Cleveland is 30-14 SU (25-19 ATS) on the highway this year, and Atlanta is 34-12 SU (25-20-1 ATS) in the home jerseys.
The Cavaliers are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 11-0 overall, 10-0 after a SU win, 8-0 in second-round playoff games, 5-0 on the road and 17-3 as a playoff chalk. The Hawks are still on ATS upswings of 14-7-1 at home and 8-3 as a home pup, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-9 as an underdog and 1-6 catching points in the playoffs.
The under for Cleveland is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 16-5 in conference semifinal games and 8-1 when favored in the postseason. Likewise, the under for Atlanta is on tears of 9-3 overall, 12-3 against winning teams and 7-0 with the Hawks as a playoff pup. Finally, the under is 2-1 in this series, though the over-under has alternated in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS) at (6) Dallas (4-4 SU and ATS)
The streaking and fortunate Nuggets can gain a spot in the Western Conference finals when they go for the series sweep against the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center.
The referees called 61 fouls in Saturday’s Game 3, then swallowed their whistles when Dallas’ Antoine Wright was trying to foul Carmelo Anthony in the waning seconds, with the Mavs having a two-point lead and a foul to give. No call was made, and the second push from Wright created enough space for Anthony to fire up a 3-pointer that gave Denver a shocking 106-105 victory as a four-point road underdog. Anthony finished with 31 points and eight rebounds and Chauncey Billups added 32 points for the Nuggets, who are now 21-4 SU (17-8 ATS) in their last 25 games.
Dirk Nowitzki posted a double-double of 33 points and 16 rebounds in Saturday’s defeat, leading five Dallas players in double figures, but the Mavericks lost despite holding a 105-101 lead with 31 seconds remaining. Rick Carlisle’s club went 40 of 49 from the line in the foul-plagued contest, but did not get to the line in those final 31 seconds. The Mavs have lost SU and ATS in all three games in this series after entering on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS run.
Denver is now 10-1 SU and ATS in its last 11 meetings with Dallas, including 7-0 SU (5-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets have also cashed in each of their last five starts in Dallas (4-1 SU).
Dallas is 34-10 SU (21-23 ATS) at home this year, including 2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs. Denver is 23-21 SU and ATS on the road, but 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in postseason action.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-4 overall, 16-3 against the Western Conference, 15-3 against winning teams and 10-0 against the Southwest Division. On the flip side, the Mavericks are on ATS purges of 8-19 against the Northwest Division and 4-9 as a playoff chalk, but they are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home, 17-7 in their last 24 after a non-cover and 13-6 in their last 19 following a SU loss.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in second-round playoff games and 15-6 with the Mavs a home chalk, but the under is on a 9-2 roll when the Mavs are a playoff chalk of less than five points. Likewise, the under for Denver is on stretches of 7-2 on the highway, 21-9 with the Nuggets catching points and 18-5 with the Nuggets as a playoff pup.
Finally, even though the last two games have topped the total, the under remains 15-8 in the last 22 Denver-Dallas battles, and the total has stayed low in eight of the last 11 clashes in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (15-16) at N.Y. Mets (17-13)
The Mets put a season-high seven-game winning streak on the line when they send ace Johan Santana (4-1, 0.91 ERA) to the Citi Field mound in the opener of a three-game series against the Braves. New York is coming off a three-game weekend sweep of the Pirates, outscoring Pittsburgh 25-8.
Atlanta, which hands the ball to Derek Lowe (4-1, 3.98) for this contest, has won four of five on its current road trip, including taking the final two games in Philadelphia on Saturday and Sunday by scores of 6-2 and 4-2, respectively. The Braves have won seven of their last nine on the highway.
New York’s current winning streak began with a pair of wins in Atlanta last week, the first meetings of the season between these N.L. East rivals. The Mets have won seven of the last 11 against the Braves overall and six of the last eight clashes in New York. Also, despite the Mets’ two road wins a week ago, the host is still on a 12-5 run in this rivalry.
Atlanta has lost 10 of its last 11 games on Monday, but it is 5-2 in Lowe’s first seven starts this season. New York is on streaks of 5-0 as a favorite, 6-0 against right-handed starters, 4-0 in divisional play, 17-5 with Santana on the mound and 5-1 with Santana pitching at home.
Lowe is coming off his worst performance of the season, allowing six runs in five innings at Florida on Wednesday, but he still earned an 8-6 victory. With that effort, the veteran right-hander who is in his first season with Atlanta is now 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in four road starts. However, he’s 1-2 with a bloated 8.78 ERA in eight lifetime appearances (two starts) against the Mets.
Santana continued his brilliance in Wednesday’s 1-0 home win over the Phillies, scattering two hits and three walks while striking out 10 in seven innings. The veteran lefty has given up just six runs (four earned) in 39 2/3 innings with 12 walks and 54 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts at new Citi Field, but he’s 0-3 with a 2.76 ERA in five career efforts against the Braves, including 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts last year, his first season with the Mets.
The under is 5-0 in Santana’s five career outings against Atlanta, 7-0 in his last seven starts overall, 5-0 in his last five starts at home and 5-0 in his last five against the N.L. East. Conversely, with Lowe on the mound, the over is on stretches of 5-1 overall and 3-0 against New York.
The over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last eight games overall, 11-4-3 in their last 18 on Monday and 4-0 in the Braves’ last four against lefty starters. However, the under is on streaks of 6-1 for Atlanta on Monday, 8-3 for Atlanta against N.L. East rivals and 11-5-2 for New York against divisional foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS
DUNKEL
Denver at Dallas
The Mavericks look to avoid elimination, but are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points, while the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog by the same margin. Denver is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2).
Game 729-730: Cleveland at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.936; Atlanta 121.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 183
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10); Under
Game 731-732: Denver at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 126.841; Dallas 126.565
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2); Under
MLB
Washington at San Francisco
The Nationals are 0-6 in Daniel Cabrera's last 6 starts as a underdog, while the Giants are 7-2 in their last 9 home games. San Francisco is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.466; NY Mets (Santana) 17.088
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-180); Under
Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.494; Arizona (Garland) 14.849
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under
Game 955-956: Washington at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Cabrera) 15.082; San Francisco (Johnson) 16.557
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over
Game 957-958: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.373; Cleveland (Pavano) 14.285
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
NHL
Vancouver at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to wrap up the series at home and build on their 6-0 mark in their last 6 games as a home favorite between -150 and -200. Chicago is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-175).
Game 59-60: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.175; Pittsburgh 13.782
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-185); Under
Game 61-62: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.797; Chicago 13.460
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-175); Over
Big Al McMordie
Washington at San Francisco
Pick Selection: SF Giants
At 10:15pm our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Washington Nationals. At first glance it would seem that Nats starter Daniel Cabrera and Giants starter Randy Johnson are having parallel seasons. But actually nothing could be further from the truth. While Johnson has been alternating great and poor outings, Cabrera has just been consistently bad. And while, surprisingly, Johnson's ERA is the higher of the two, there are at least two reasons for his team to be very optimistic about this evening. First, it's time for one of the Big Unit's strong starts, as he had almost identical seven-inning shutout performances two starts back and four starts back. Second, both of those starts (his two best starts of the year by far) were his only two at home, and tonight Johnson will be on the mound at AT&T Park for the third time. Don't try to find any pattern in Cabrera's performances to date. Just as was the case for most of the time with the Orioles, Cabrera has had trouble finding the plate and staying consistent. Even when he has several good innings in a row, it seems like a blow-up is right around the corner, as happened in his last start against the Dodgers when he was pretty effective through the first four innings, only to come apart in innings five and six. Cabrera has give up 10 total walks in his last two starts covering just 11 1/3 innings. It's uncertain how long the Nats will stick with him in their rotation, but it's unlikely they will be as patient as the Orioles were before finally giving up on him at the end of 2008 after five full seasons of frustration. Take the Giants.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
Atlanta and the NY Mets are each sending a 4-1 pitcher to the mound as the Braves send Derek Lowe up against the Mets Johan Santana. Lowe has an era of just under 4 so he is getting run support to be at 4-1 while Santana struggles to win games with an era of under 1. In this one look for a pitchers duel at Citi Field with the Mets and Santana coming out on top 2-1. Play NY Mets
Cajun Sports
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
AT&T Park will be the site of a three-game series set to begin on Monday night at 10:15PM EST between the host San Francisco Giants and the visiting Washington Nationals. The Nationals are 28-65 W/L (-28.0) when playing against a team with a winning record the last 2 seasons and 7-27 W/L (-17.6) in road games versus a National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse the last 2 seasons. Washington will send right-hander Daniel Cabrera to the bump with his 0-3 W/L record on the highway this season and his ERA of 6.59 including a WHIP of 2.196. Cabrera has averaged allowing 16.69 men on base this season and has a Power Efficiency Rating of -4.65 not good numbers for a Nationals team that needs solid performances out of their starters. The Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.651 on the road this season. Cabrera is 0-6 W/L his last six starts as an underdog and Washington is 13-32 W/L (-15.3) when Cabrera takes the bump as an underdog of +100 or more. The Nationals are 15-46 W/L their last sixty-one installed as a road underdog and 13-39 W/L their last fifty-two road games versus a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 10-4 W/L (+6.2) when playing at home this season and 10-10 W/L (+1.6) when facing a right-handed starter. The Giants will send left-hander Randy Johnson to the hill with his 2-1 W/L record at home with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.632. Johnson’s numbers are better than Cabrera’s in that he only allows 12.51 men on base and has a Power Efficiency Rating of +5.02; he also gets solid support from the bullpen as they have an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.525 at home the season. San Francisco is 5-1 W/L their last six as a favorite, 7-2 W/L their last nine at home, 6-2 W/L their last eight as a home favorite and 14-6 W/L their last twenty facing a team with a win percentage of less than .400 on the year. Key Angle: Washington is 4-14 W/L (-12.0) when Cabrera takes the bump versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game the last 2 seasons. Key System: Play On MLB home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or more over his last 3 starts, 117-42 W/L (+53.2) the last five seasons. With solid fundamental and technical support for the host we will back the Giants here as they get the win over the Nationals in the Golden Gate City on Monday night.
Graded Selection: 2* San Francisco Giants 4 Washington Nationals 2
Alex Smart
Dallas Mavericks -1.5
A lot of controversy swirled around some questionable non calls by the referees in game 3 of this Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks western conference series , that allowed Carmelo Anthony to eventually hit a late 3 pointer , for a 106-105 win by the Nuggets. Antoine Wright deliberately bumped Anthony twice, but no call. That seemed odd considering how easily the officials had blown the whistle the whole game, only to turn their heads in this spot. That did not set well with the Mavericks, and I'm sure the league was not happy either , especially after the scandals that rocked the NBA over the last few years. NBA spokesman Tim Frank said Sunday that the league was still reviewing the post-game scene on the court, when Mavericks' Josh Howard and team owner Mark Cuban were among those that were shown to be extremely upset. Now with desperation on their plates, and the motivation of feeling like they were ripped off I expect the Mavs to come out here and play one of their best games of the playoffs, behind what will be a pumped up crowd. Here is a quote from Denvers Chauncey Billups that sums up tonights situation: "They're facing elimination. That's always the toughest game to win, especially in a sweep situation. They're going to fight really hard and do everything they can possibly do to keep their season alive." It must be noted that the Dallas Mavericks have never been swept in a 4 game series, and I am betting nothing changes tonight. .....Projected score: Dallas 107 Denver 103- Play on Mavs to cover
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO WHITE SOX at CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take: OVER
Reason: The White Sox and Indians both struggling this year as both are below .500. The Sox are still waiting for slugger Jim Thome to get it in gear as the lefty his hitting just .200 so far with four HR's. RF Jermaine Dye is having another good season hitting .303 with seven HR's and 17 RBI's. Carlos Quientin is leading the team in HR's with eight. The pitching staff has been fair with a team ERA of 4.44 and a fairly high WHIP of 1.533. Today's starter, Gavin Floyd has been hit hard, allowing 42 hits in 32 innings with a 6.29 ERA. The Indians are again led by C Victor Martinez who is hitting a blistering .385 with a team leading 6 HR's and 19 RBI. Pitching has been the big problem for this club with a 5.86 team ERA and a WHIP of 1.596. Carl Pavano has shown flashes of the high expectations teams had of him in the past, but for the most part he's having another poor season. Pavano is 2-3 with a 6.61 ERA. The one bright spot for Pavano is that he doesn't walk many batters with just eight free passes this season. Neither pitching staff is much to worry about and we look for lots of runs in this contest. Take the OVER!!
Jimmy The Moose
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Both teams come into this game having won 3 of their last 4. On the road the Nationals are 5-12 and will be facing a good home team in the Giants who are 10-4 at home. The Nationals send Cabrera to the mound and he takes his 0-3 record with him. The Nationals have lost all 6 of his starts this season. Randy Johnson's on the mound for the Giants and San Francisco has won 3 of his last 4 starts. Take the home team tonight. Play on the San Francisco Giants -.
Red Dog Sports
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Play Over 10.5
Cleveland has gone over in 8 of their last 11 and the White Sox have played 8 overs and 2 unders in their last 10 as an underdog. Floyd has an ERA of 6.29 and Pavano has an ERA of 6.61. These two have combined for 9 overs and 3 unders. Look for the over to cash on Monday!
Karl Garrett
White Sox at CLEVELAND
Tonight on the diamond, look for the bats to get cranking in this Chicago-Cleveland game.
Both teams have been playing them LOW of late, as the Pale Hose have been UNDER the total in 4 straight, while the Tribe have been UNDER in their last 3.
That changes tonight with Gavin Floyd, and Carl Pavano serving them up.
Floyd sports a season ERA over 6, and 5 of his 6 starts this season have landed OVER the posted total.
Pavano's season ERA is also over 6, and 4 of his 6 season starts have landed OVER the total.
In last year's season series, 10 of the 18 games played between the teams did land HIGH, and the G-Man likes this one to also land OVER the total.
2♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland -10 at ATLANTA
Tonight we're going with a FREE winner on the hardwood with a selection of the Cavaliers as they look to finish off the Hawks in Atlanta.
It looks like Cleveland is on a mission, so tonigh LeBron and his gang will finish off the Hawks and move on to the Eastern Conference finals. They haven't been challenged in a playoff game yet, winning and covering in all seven and we don't expect tonight to be the first time they fail. Play the Cavs as they wrap this series up with a 15-20 point win.
Saturday was their first semi-challenge as the Hawks were in the game until midway through the third quarter but watching it you just had that feeling the Cavs were just toying with the Hawks and had the ability to turn it on when they wanted. Tonight you'll see the Cavaliers play an inspired first half and get up big by halftime and then the Hawks will throw in the towel in the second half and it'll be an ugly final 20 minutes or so with backups in the game.
Cleveland has won every playoff game by double digits and their defense is giving up less than 80 points a game in the postseason. They seem to understand that they let LeBron draw the attention and the guards hit the open shots and the big guys rebound and make their putbacks and free throws.
Then there's LeBron who decided he do it from the outside on Saturday and was knocking down 3-pointers from everywhere. Tonight he might decide to show off his driving skill and have a few early dunks to demoralize the Hawks.
Atlanta can't seem to do anything right and they just can't score enough points to prove a threat to the Cavs. We'll lay the big chalk and play Cleveland tonight.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland at ATLANTA
Tonight we play the Cavs-Hawks game UNDER the posted total.
Cleveland netted 97 points on Saturday, and the contest still stayed UNDER the total. We expect to see a similar type of game played out tonight at Philips Arena, and another UNDER the total to cash in.
Atlanta is on a 7-1 UNDER run when installed as the underdog, and 3 of the last 5 series meetings between the clubs have stayed LOW.
The Cavaliers are on a 5-1 playoff UNDER run, while the Hawks are on a 6-2 playoff UNDER run.
Just not enough offense here tonight to make us feel comfortable backing the OVER.
Play on the LOW in tonight's Cleveland-Atlanta contest.
1♦ UNDER
Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: White Sox/Indians under 10 1/2 😀
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
259 - 170 run 60 % Mon Over Cleve INDIANS over the total
Sun: Arizona TY Sat DODGERS TY Fri Red Sox Ty 😀
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(731) Denver Nuggets +1
This Mavericks saw their playoff bubble burst by a missed call
by the refs that allowed the Nuggets to steal the win in game three.
I look for Denver to close out the series in this game. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 70-57 (55.1%) 😀
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: MLB Washington w/Caberera +130 Over San Fran 😀
8)
Scott Spreitzer
Atlanta Braves at NY Mets
I'm playing the Under in the Atlanta/NY Mets game Monday Night. The new Mets home stadium looks to be a great park for pitchers. The power alleys are deep. Fly ball pitchers don’t have to worry about allowing home runs unless balls are hit very hard. That allows pitchers of all types to thrive here. I expect both Johan Santana and Derek Lowe to thrive tonight! Santana has an amazing 0.91 ERA for the season, with an ironically identical 0.91 WHIP. Both numbers are fantastic. Note that he’s striking out a whopping 12.3 guys per nine innings as well. Lowe’s numbers are solid, if pedestrian by comparison. Lowe’s ERA is 3.98 this year, with a WHIP of 1.38. Note that he’s only allowed 2 home runs all season, so he’s a guy who can get buy with an average WHIP. Monday Nights are often quiet nights offensively anyway because crowds or smaller and the visiting team had to travel in for the game. I’m looking for a quickly played pitcher’s duel with minimal scoring. The Under in the Atlanta/NY Mets game is the play.
Play on: UNDER
Vegas Experts
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks are no strangers to low scoring games as 10 of the last 11 between them has gone UNDER the total with six straight in Arizona. The Reds are going with Bronson Arroyo who has been very good on the road this season with his last start in Pittsburgh being an eight inning shutout effort in a 4-0 win. On the year he has given up just four earned runs in over 21 innings of work this season. Arizona’s starting pitcher Jon Garland is coming off an excellent start as well as he went seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits in a 3-1 victory over San Diego.
Play on: Under