John Ryan
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks +9.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Atlanta Hawks as they face Cleveland in the elimination game 4. 15 of 18 teams have completed the sweep when up 3-0 in a series and those same teams have been a solid 12-5-1 ATS. Yet, trends many times reverse themselves and this is going to be one of those games demonstrating that fact. Cleveland has shot very well, but they will be a more normal shooting NBA team tonight based on the AiS projections. AiS shows a 71% probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Also, that CLV will shoot between 43 and 47%. Note that Atlanta is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season. Take the Hawks to at least be competitive tonight.
LT Profits
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Daniel Cabrera is off to a bad start for the Washington Nationals, and Randy Johnson is not exactly blowing batters away any more for the San Francisco Giants either, so this posted total seems a tad low given this matchup.
Cabrera is in his first season with Washington after pitching for the rival Baltimore Orioles, but the shift to the National League has not helped, as he is 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA and a horrible 1.82 WHIP in 29.2 innings. Thus, it is not really that surprising that the Over has gone 5-0-1 in all of his starts, especially when you factor in the poor 5.84 ERA of the oft maligned Nationals bullpen.
Johnson has had a few flashback moments this season, but he had been very mediocre for the most past while going 2-3 with a 5.58 ERA. He was awful in his last start, allowing seven earned runs in 5.2 innings vs. the Colorado Rockies, and he is facing a Washington lineup that has fared surprisingly well vs. left-handed pitchers, batting .273 as a team against them. In fact, the Nationals have been potent vs. most pitching this year, averaging 5.00 runs per game.
Then again, the reason the Nats are 10-19 is their terrible pitching, and we look for another Over tonight at this very manageable number.
Pick: Nationals/Giants Over 8.5
James Patrick Sports
Blackhawks vs. Canucks
Game #6 in this Playoff match up and the action will be intense as one mistake could turn the series around for one of these teams. We'll take our Monday NHL complimentary selection is Vancouver Canucks as they look to climb back into this series knowing that Chicago is just 5-18-3 in Monday action and the Canucks are 19-8 in Chicago.
Tom Freese
Cincinnati at Arizona
Cincinnati is 7-2 their last 9 road games vs. losing teams and they are 19-7 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Reds are 6-2 with Bronson Arroyo on the mound vs. losing teams and they are 8-2 their last 10 meetings with the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 2-10 off a win in their last game and they are 6-13 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Diamondbacks are 2-9 as favorites -110 to -150 and they are 2-6 their last 8 games overall. PLAY ON CINCINNATI w/Arroyo
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks got their first win for their new manager AJ Hinch yesterday; a 10-8 decision over the Nationals. The Snakes had a season-high 17 hits and Hinch was awarded the game ball by his team. We expect that they will be able to carry the momentum of that win into this game.
Jon Garland has been spectacular recently, allowing a total of two runs in his last two starts, a 5-2 win in Milwaukee and a 3-1 win in San Diego. The Diamondbacks are an excellent investment in this spot. Arizona is 20-4 when they won their starters last two starts and both were quality starts. Also, the D-Backs are 6-0 as a favorite after a game in which they had 15+ hits..
The Reds and Cardinals battled throughout yesterday before St Louis won 8-7 in the tenth. The loss broke the Reds three-game winning streak. They are in a tough spot here. Cincinnati is 10-21 in the first game of a series after a one run loss and 1-12 on the road after scoring at least seven runs but losing nonetheless (0-10 if they were not more than a 170 dog in that loss).
The reason why were getting such a low line here is that Bronson Arroyo has been excellent on the road so far this season. The D-Backs have the momentum and the starter to get the job done.
Matt Fargo
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds remain a surprise as they are coming off another series win, this one against first place St. Louis. Cincinnati went 3-2 during its homestand to move to 7-9 on the year at Great American Ballpark but now it is back on the road where it takes its Major League leading 10-5 road record to Arizona. The Diamondbacks were able to salvage one game from its series against Washington on Sunday as they continue to struggle. They are 13-19 on the season and have now lost six of their last eight games no thanks to the worst offense in baseball. Arizona is hitting .234 on the year and during this recent skid, it has averaged only 3.4 rpg and the only reason it is that high is because of 10 runs scored on Sunday. I do not see that momentum carrying over however as it has scored nine runs or more three other times this season and followed that up with offensive outputs of zero, two and one-run games next time out. The offense faces Bronson Arroyo who has been really good or really bad in the early part of the season. The splits are in our favor here however. At home, Arroyo has been dreadful, going 1-2 with a 16.34 ERA and 2.53 WHIP. On the road however, he has been extremely solid, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has never defeated Arizona in four starts but he has allowed three runs or fewer in three of those games while posting a 3.81 ERA in those four contests. Jon Garland has been the same way this season, pitching horrible at home but very solid on the road. He has a 5.47 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in four home starts compared to a 1.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in two road outings. Arizona is just 2-10 following a win this season and 3-7 after a game where the offense produced five runs or more. The Reds are 18-6 in their last 24 games when the opponent is coming off a five-run or better effort and they come into this game holding an 8-2 edge in the series. 3* Cincinnati Reds
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cleveland w/Pavano vs Floyd
When the Tribe opens a 3-game series with the White Sox on the north coast tonight they will send Carl Pavano up against Gavin Floyd in a battle of right handers. With Floyd 2-4with a 7.26 ERA on the road in the month of May in his MLB career and Pavano 4-1 in his last home team starts in May, look for the Indians to pummel the Pale Hose here tonight.
Rocketman
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 17-14 this year while Arizona is 13-19 on the season. Cincinnati is 10-3 this year after a loss. Arizona is 2-10 after a win this year. Cincinnati bullpen has a 2.70 ERA on the road this year. Arizona bullpen has a 5.20 ERA at home this year. Arizona is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year. Bronson Arroyo is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA on the road this year. Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 against Arizona the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati tonight!
Ben Burns
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Indians enter this evening's game on a 4-game losing skid. They've made a habit of starting a new week off with a victory though (last week's win over Toronto brought them to 27-14 (+14.4) when playing on a Monday the last 2+ seasons) and I feel that they've got a solid chance to get back on track this evening.
Pavano goes for the Tribe and he's been extremely solid his last two starts. Last time out, he went to Fenway and limited the Red Sox to six hits and just two runs through six complete innings. In his previous outing, he held the Tigers to two runs over a very healthy 7 2/3 innings, allowing just five hits without walking a batter. Note that Pavano's last start vs. the Sox came way back in 2004. In that game, he tossed a complete game 4-hit shutout, striking out eight and walking only one.
While neither have very good overall stats, Floyd hasn't been as sharp as Pavano of late. Last time out, he allowed six runs in five innings. Including that poor effort, he's 0-1 (team is 1-2) with an ugly 8.22 ERA and an awful 2.218 WHIP over his last three starts.
While it's true that the Indians have gotten off to a very tough (5-10) start at home this season, they're still a respectable 105-76 here the past 2+ seasons and this season's record should improve. The White Sox have been "nothing special" (6-8) on the road either and they're just 75-103 their past 178 on the road. They've been at their worst as small road underdogs too, going 25-45 (-16.9) the last 70 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Consider Cleveland
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Braves/Mets UNDER 7
I don't expect to see many runs put on the board tonight with a pair of aces facing off. The Mets' Santana is 4-1 with a 0.91 ERA this season and the Braves' Lowe is 4-1 with a 3.98 ERA. Plus, with Chipper Jones listed as doubtful with an elbow injury, the Braves likely lose their best bat. Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 Under in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons with the total score being just 5.8 on average in these games. Also, the Under is 7-0 in Santana's last 7 starts overall. Bet the Under tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on White Sox +121
Cleveland is just 5-10 at home this season and a dismal 7-19 against righty starters. They come into this one having lost 4 in a row as well. White Sox starter Gavin Floyd is much better than he has shown in the early going and is still 2-0 on the road this season. I expect to see him turn in his best effort of the season thus far against a struggling Indians lineup scoring only 3.7 runs per game at home. The White Sox have taken 11 of the last 16 in this series and are 7-1 in Floyd's last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 11-4 in Floyd's last 15 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Bet the Sox.
Nick Parsons
Washington Capitals +150 @ Pittsburgh Penguins
"Next game is going to be different," Ovechkin said after the Penguins beat the Capitals for the second time in two nights, winning 4-3 in overtime on Saturday. "It's not over yet. If somebody thinks it's over, it's not over. ... We're going to come back here (to Washington) again, Game 7." Pittsburgh is 18-19 after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous game while Washington is 5-1 after 3 or more consecutive losses; play on the CAPITALS!
Nite Owl Sports
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
Pick: 3 units Dallas Mavericks -120
It's hard handicapping a game 4 like this, where one of the teams is up 3-0, and it's also hard to back the team that just went down 0-3 with a devastating, controversial last second loss, like Mavs did. But in game 3 we saw a denver team that did not even 'show up" until midway through the 2Q, missing 16 of their first 19 shots and looking awful on offense (of course, it does not speak well of Mavs that they could not takle advantage of Denver's poor 1Q play, having to settle for a 20-20 tie after one quarter of the ugliest ball we have seen in NBA TY since the last time we suffered thru a Clippers game, with "comped" tickets).
And Denver has shown TY, with a number of losses as road faves to teams they should have handled easily, that when they are not "ready to play," they can be pretty bad. So we don't expect a high energy, focused effort at all by Denver, which we expect/hope the Mavs can take advantage of this time.
The Mavs' "mind set" coming into this game is a bit harder to figure. Yes, they just lost a heart-breaker which would have gotten them back into the series, and yes, they realize that now, being down 0-3, they have virtually no chance to win this series. But we don't expect them to just roll over, and we expect that their HC, Rick carlisle, who has considerable playoff experience and success in his days coaching at Indy and Detroit, will have them ready for the type of high energy, focused effort that we don't expect from Denver. And despite Denver's good 9-2-1 ATS record in second half of season and playoffs as road dogs and road "even" against B+ teams like dallas and NO (who they beat in first round), Nuggets were just 6-6 SU in those 12 roadies. And we are taking Mavs here on the ML, so all they have to do to get us the money is win SU.
Mavs have come very close to beating denver last two in Big D (a two point reg season loss and game 3 last second loss by just one point), and we expect them to play hard for pride and the home fans, and to avoid the humiliation of being swept 4-0 and eliminated on their home court. And with ML at -120 and ATS price -110 having to give 1.5 points, we suggest taking Mavs on ML so that we will win even with a one point Mavs' victory, although we believe they will win by more than that.
Game update -- there is a chance that Mavs forward Josh Howard will get a one game suspension for this game due to his demonstrative actions in the post-game "scene" on the court after Mavs' last second loss in game 3, but we doubt it, as NBA front office is likely reluctant to "screw" Mavs any more than refs did at end of game 3, having already admitted that the officials "blew it" by not calling a foul when Dallas defender Antoine Wright intentionally grabbed carmelo anthony twice (to send him to the FT line) rather than take the risk that CA would make a game victorious 3 pointer, which he did. But even if he does not play, Howard has not been his total self in this series due to a gimpy ankle which caused him to miss virtually all of game two, although he did put up 14 points and 7 boards in game 3.
Tony George
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona -125
Once the ace of Cincy’s starting rotation, and still a respectable 4-2 on the year, Bronson Arroyo’s ERA is over 7 and in his last 3 starts it is over 11. Just what the doctor ordered for Arizona who has struggled somewhat at the plate with an overall team batting average of .239 against right handers. The good news is Jon Garland takes the mound for the D Backs and his 5-1 record is solid, and he is 3-0 his last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.61. Have a feeling here after a much needed win against Washington, Arizona takes advantage of Garlands prowess in a home win here against Cincy who has been a good road bet so far at 10-5.
Play on the small home favorite Arizona tonight.
RJ Robbins
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play:Atlanta Braves +1.5
We take the Braves plus the run line tonight. D. Lowe is looking for his 5th win of the season, going against all-world lefty J.Santana. Santana is 0-3,with a 2.76 ERA vs the Braves, and the Braves are 7-4 vs LHP. Look for a low scoring game and take the 1.5 runs. NY Mets 4 Atlanta 3