SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) at (2) Denver (9-4 SU, 12-1 ATS)
The Lakers, who quickly restored the home-court advantage they lost in Los Angeles with Game 3 victory in Denver, look to take command of this best-of-7 Western Conference Finals series when they face the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center.
Los Angeles trailed throughout much of Game 3 Saturday, but a key Trevor Ariza steal and 41 points from Kobe Bryant helped the Lakers nab a 103-97 victory as a 3½-point road underdog, snapping Denver’s 16-game home win streak. Pau Gasol (20 points, 11 rebounds) had yet another double-double, and Ariza finished with 16 points. L.A. enjoyed a huge edge at the free-throw line, making 31 of 45 attempts (68.9 percent); Denver’s percentage was much higher (83.9), but the Nuggets only had 31 attempts, making 26.
Carmelo Anthony led Denver with 21 points, but only three of those came in the second half as he fell well short of his 28 ppg playoff average, after scoring 39 and 34 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2. Anthony went 4 of 13 from the floor, and Chauncey Billups (18 points, seven assists) was just 5 of 15, and Denver shot a dismal 5-for-27 from three-point range (18.5 percent).
Los Angeles is 12-1 SU in its last 13 playoff games against Denver and has won seven straight postseason tilts in the Mile High City. The Lakers have won five of seven clashes this season, going 4-3 ATS, and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Nuggets. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, including all three games in this series.
Denver is 39-9 SU (29-18-1 ATS) on the year at home, including a 6-1 SU and ATS mark in the playoffs. Los Angeles is 32-15 SU (26-21 ATS) on the highway this season, including 3-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.
The Nuggets’ perfect playoff ATS mark went out the window Saturday. However, they are still 23-7 SU in their last 30 overall, and they remain on spread-covering sprees of 22-7 overall, 10-2 as favorite, 6-1 as a playoff chalk, 7-2 against the Pacific Division and 21-5 against the West.
The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 21-7-2 as a road pup, 6-2 catching less than five points on the road and 5-2 as a playoff pup of the same price, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 after a SU win and 1-5 after a spread-cover.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in seven straight games and is on surges of 11-2 overall, 5-1 on the road and 8-0 in the conference finals. The over is 10-5 in Denver’s last 15 games at home, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite of less than five points.
Finally, with the first three games of this series staying low, the under is now 9-1 in the last 10 clashes between these two teams, and the last six meetings in Denver have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-18) at Milwaukee (26-18)
The Cardinals kick off a six-game road trip at Miller Park where they will send Chris Carpenter (2-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound to face the Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo (4-2, 3.83 ERA).
St. Louis had its five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday when the Royals got the 3-2 victory to salvage one game of the interleague series. The Cardinals are just 9-9 on the road this year and will head west to visit the Giants for a three-game series after their stop in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Brewers were swept by the Twins over the weekend, ending a nine-game road trip that started with four straight wins, including three in St. Louis.
Milwaukee has dominated the Cardinals lately, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings, including four of the last five at Miller Park.
Carpenter made his first start in more than a month on Wednesday and didn’t allow a run and only three hits in five innings of a 2-1 win over the Cubs. It was just his sixth start in more than two years of battling injuries. His last two starts against the Brewers haven’t gone so well, but they were way back in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, allowing 13 runs on 19 hits in 11 1/3 innings, losing both games.
Milwaukee has won four of Gallardo’s last five outings, but his last one wasn’t pretty, as the right-hander gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings of Wednesday’s 6-4 loss in Houston. Prior to that he’d held the opposition to three runs or less in six of his first seven starts of 2009. He faced the Cardinals twice in the 2007 season and lost both times, allowing a combined 11 runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
St. Louis is 10-4 in its last 14 series openers, but it is just 2-5 in its last seven on the road and 2-5 in its last seven Monday contests. With Carpenter on the mound, the Cardinals are on runs of76-29 overall, 35-16 on the road and 37-15 against N.L. Central teams. Despite getting swept by the Twins over the weekend, Milwaukee is on runs of 22-9 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-0 at home against right-handed starters, 40-19 as a favorite and 36-17 against N.L. Central teams.
The Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-0 overall, 4-0 in series openers and 7-2 against N.L. Central teams, but the over is 9-2 in Carpenter’s last 11 roadies and 28-12-3 in their last 43 on the highway against right-handed starters. Milwaukee is on “under” streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite and 12-5 in Gallardo’s last 17 starts, but the over is 5-0 in the Brewers’ last five games on Monday and 9-3-1 in its last 13 when they face a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (25-19) at Texas (26-17)
The two hottest teams in the American League begin a three-game set today at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington when the Yankees send Phil Hughes (2-2, 7.06 ERA) to the mound opposite Texas southpaw Matt Harrison (4-3, 4.71).
New York lost two of three to the Phillies over the weekend, including a 4-3, 11-inning loss on Sunday, but has still won 10 of its last 12 overall and six of its last eight on the highway. Meanwhile, the Rangers swept their in-state rivals in Houston over the weekend when they blanked the Astros 5-0 on Sunday. Texas has won 16 of its last 21 games overall and eight straight in front of the home fans.
The Yankees hold decisive advantages when these two clubs square off, winning 21 of the last 28 clashes overall and 21 of the last 29 in Texas.
Hughes has been inconsistent this season, including going 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s 1-1 with a 9.38 ERA in his two road outings. The Yankees scored home wins over Baltimore and Minnesota in Hughes’ last two starts, but in his last roadie, Hughes allowed eight runs on eight hits in just 1 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Orioles. In his lone career start against Texas, he blanked the Rangers without a hit for 6 1/3 innings of a 10-1 victory in Texas back in May 2007.
Harrison is 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 15 strikeouts against just three walks in his last three starts. He threw a complete game in his last home outing, allowing two runs on five hits in a 3-2 win over the Mariners. Harrison faced the Yankees in August last season and allowed two runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 Texas victory.
New York is 5-2 in Hughes’ last seven starts, but just 2-5 in his last seven on the road. The Yankees are on further streaks of 4-1 against A.L. West teams and 4-1 on the road against teams with winning records. Texas is just 1-5 when Harrison starts as a home favorite but the Rangers are 5-1 in his last six starts against A.L. East squads. Furthermore, the Rangers are on runs of 6-1 in series openers, 7-3 against winning teams and 11-3 when they face a right-hander.
For the Yankees, the under is on runs of 5-1 in series openers and 5-0 against teams with winning records, but the over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 as a ‘dog and 8-3-1 in their last 12 on Mondays. The Rangers have topped the total in 20 of their last 32 Monday games, but otherwise for Texas the “under” is on stretches of 21-8 overall, 8-3 at home, 7-3 in series openers and 5-0 in Harrison’s last five outings. However the over is 9-3 in Harrison’s last 12 starts at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Craig Trapp
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Craig continued his hot winning ways yesterday with his 5 star Under as the REDS and INDIANS went under for all of his players. That puts Craig at 14-4 the last two weeks in his top 5 star PLAYS in MLB!! Today Craig has a great value free play in the American League, lets look at the records, trends and Winning Breakdown!!
Records
Tampa Bay Rays 23-23, 12-13 away (Price 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Cleveland Indians 17-28, 7-11 home (Carmona 2-4, 5.74 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.
-Indians are 1-4 in Carmonas last 5 home starts.
-Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Price was a savior for this team at the end of last season for TB and well into the playoffs. Today he will try and end a losing streak of 13 games in CLEVELAND. TB won three of four early this year at home and now try and this losing streak going back to SEPT 2005. TB bats have been hot lately and CLE has really struggled with the pitching staff. Today pitching for CLE is Carmona who has been very disappointing. He has allowed 4 earned runs the last two games in 6 innings in both starts. Carmona is 2-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay in four appearances, including three starts. Price will be lights out as he has nasty stuff and since CLE has not seen him it will make it even tougher to catch up with. TB will get into the very poor CLE bullpen and score often. SCORE TB 8 - CLE 1
Cajun Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers +110
Coors Field will be the site of todays game one of the three-game set between the host Colorado Rockies and the visiting LA Dodgers. The Dodgers open a seven-game road trip after losing two of three against the Angels over the weekend. The stop in Colorado should help them get back to their winning ways; the Dodgers are 5-1 W/L versus the Rockies their last six this season and LA has been dominate when facing division opponents posting a record of 20-8 W/L against Western Division foes in 2009. To say they are the best in the west would be an understatement because no other team in the west has a record above .500 in division play and LA sets the pace at 12 games over the Mendoza Line. LA will send Eric Stults to the bump with his record of 4-1 and ERA of 3.82 ERA. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last three outings. He missed a chance to win his third start in a row May 15 allowing three runs over five innings of work in a 6 to 4 win at Florida. Stults is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against the Rockies, including three starts. The Rockies will send Jorge De La Rosa to the hill with his 0-4 record and ERA of 4.27; he is making his ninth start of the year seeking his first win since Sept. 25. His last outing was his worst as he allowed a season-high seven runs over a season-low 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in a 12 to 4 loss at Atlanta. We will back the Dodgers here as they get an easy win over the Rockies on Monday afternoon at Coors Field in the Mile High City.
Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 7 Colorado Rockies 4
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Detroit w/Verlander vs Meche
The Tigers travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals in the opener of this three-game series when they send Justin Verlander to the hill against Gil Meche in a matchup of two pitchers going in opposite directions. Verlander is 5-1 in his last six team starts with 12 walks and 57 strikeouts while Meche has dropped 5 of his last 6 team starts. With Verlander in commanding form and 8-3 with a 2.43 ERA in his career team starts in this series, look for the Tigers to win the opener here this afternoon.
Nelly
Florida + over Philadelphia
The Phillies are just 8-12 at home this season and there could be a letdown following the big series against New York. The road team is actually 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams and Jamie Moyer has struggled considerably this season. Moyer owns a 7.62 ERA this season while allowing four or more runs in six of his eight starts. Moyer has already allowed 12 home runs this season and he has been a worse pitcher at home so far this year and the Phillies are 0-3 in his last three starts while he has posted a 12.08 ERA. The Philadelphia bullpen has also been a serious cause for concern as Brad Lidge has been ineffective and the unit has been heavily worked with two extra-inning games last week. Florida pulled out a big win on Sunday and the Marlins have been a much better team away from home this year. Chris Volstad has very strong numbers including a 2.96 ERA on the road this season and a season WHIP of just 1.12. Volstad allowed just two earned runs over seven innings earlier this season against Philadelphia and this is great value on the Marlins as an underdog in a very favorable pitching match-up.
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Over
Boston has played the over in their last 4 games vs. a team from the AL Central Division. The over is 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. Penny's ERA on the season is 6.07 and the over os 5-2-1 in his 8 starts this year. The over is 9-4 in the Twins last 13 home games. In their last 11 games as a home favorite the over is 8-3. Minnesota has played over the total in 2 of Liriano's last 3 starts. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 7.80. Both meetings this season played the over and this one will too.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -130
Since a hot start, the Royals are struggling, having lost 11 of 15. The Tigers are rolling, having won 7 of 9. I'll back the team playing better baseball with the better starting pitcher on the hill today. Verlander has been sensational over his last 3 starts, going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.27. Meche has been roughed up over his last 3, going 0-2 with an ERA of 6.19, and he is yet to win at home this season in 4 tries. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The Royals are 1-5 in Meche's last 6 starts and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Tigers are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Kansas City and 8-3 in Verlander's last 11 starts vs. the Royals. Take the Tigers.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Normally I stay away from favorites over 150.However tonight the Angels have several positive indicators in place.For technical purposes lets take a look at a solid system thats 12-2 and plays on LA.What we want to do is play on home favorites that scored 10 or more runs in a road dog win vs an opponent off a home loss.We can tighten it up to 5-0 if that road dog win was at +140 or higher.The average win score is 7-4 in these games.So we can see these home team carry that big dog win into there next game.The Angles are also sending E.Santana to the mound and he is a dominant home pitcher in his career.The Angels have won both times this year as a home favorite of -150 to -175.For Chicago its Lefty J.Danks,and he has been awful of late with a 6.13 era over his last 3 starts and has a 5.91 road era this year.The Whitesox are 7-14 on the road this year including 1-5 when the total is 8 to 8.5.
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Phillies as the play host to the Marlins slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-20 making 52.7 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. Her eis a second system that has gone 34-8 making 24 units since 2003. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting NL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Florida is just 2-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line versus a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Plus, the Philly bullpen with the exception of closer Lidge is pitching better and better. Lidge will work his way out of his pitching slump over time, but he is just one pitcher in a very strong group. Take the Phils.
Red Dog Sports
Houston/Cincinnati under the total
Hurang and Wandy Rodriguez have combined for 5 overs and 12 unders this year. Wandy's ERA is 1.83 in his last 3 starts and gone undewr 11-4 his last 15 on grass. Hurang's ERA is 3.19 in his last 3 and the Astros have gone under in 7 of the last 8 Monday games. Look for an under on Monday.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the Rays in Cleveland.
I do not think that David Price will throw a lights out 9 inning shutout today but the young lefty is a total future Superstar, as we saw in the playoffs last season, and the way each of these teams are playing how can you not back the superior Rays in the spot, even on the road!?!?!?
Cleveland is certainly a talented team led by a potentially great player in Grady Sizemore but right now the Indians are not a very good ballclub and have been losing too much this season to beat the surging boys from Tampa Bay at around a 50% clip which this number seems to suggest.
Fausto Carmona has that solid sinker and was unreal two seasons ago but the righty has not been the same guy and is a hurler that can be alright but he can also be fairly sketchy.
Tampa just had that quality series in Florida and seems to be looking like the squad from last season. Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Pena and the Rays are extremely scary to deal with for opposing hurlers and in Price' first big league start of the season I will gladly back today's visitors at this near-pick number.
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Lakers at DENVER
We are on an 8-2 comp play run the last 10 days.
We will go to the well once again with the UNDER in the Lakers-Nuggets series.
ALL 3 games in this series have stayed LOW, and so have 9 of the last 10 games played between the teams.
The Lakers have now played 8 straight UNDERS in the Western Conference Finals, and they have also stayed LOW in 23 of their last 32 games overall.
As for the Nuggets, 7 of their last 10 postseason games have held UNDER the posted price.
Game Three did not come close to eclipsing the established total, and we do not feel that this game will come close to going OVER the total either.
Play on the UNDER.
5♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Florida at PHILADELPHIA -125
We delivered a FREE winner from the diamond on Sunday with the Rangers as they took care of the Astros and today we've got another comp winner for you, this time with the Phillies as they host the Marlins.
Yes, we're laying the chalk with veteran hurler Jamie Moyer (3-4, 7.62 ERA) on the mound for the Phillies tonight. Why? Because he's owned the Marlins in his career, leading the Phillies to 12 wins in his last 13 outings against Florida.
Philadelphia had a good trip to New York, winning two of three against the Yankees, including Sunday's extra-inning 4-3 win. The Phils just completed a 10-game road trip with an 8-2 mark and the one loss they had in New York was when the Yankees scored three in the ninth to win. So this team is playing some great baseball.
Moyer has not looked good lately, but if there's one thing you can count on is him dominating the Marlins. He's faced them once already this season and allowed just one run on seven hits in six innings of a 13-2 win. Since 2007, he's allowed two runs or less in eight of his 10 starts against them and has always gone at least five innings against them.
Christopher Volstad (3-3, 3.64 ERA) goes for the Marlins and he's allowed four runs in each of his last two starts and three of his last four. Florida has lost three of his last four outings and the only reason they won his Wednesday start was thanks to the offense catching fire in an 8-6 win over the D'Backs.
Philadelphia is playing well and Moyer loves facing the Marlins. Play the Phils in this one.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh +155 at CUBS
Sunday comp play winner on Pittsburgh-White Sox UNDER the posted total!
G-Man now on a 5-1 comp play run the last 6 days.
For Monday in baseball, let's go with the underdog Pirates as they visit the Chicago Cubs.
Pittsburgh rallied for the 4-3 win yesterday on the south side of Chicago, as the Bucs have been a winner in 6 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, the Cubs got blasted yesterday at San Diego, as Chicago comes back home riding a 7-game losing streak.
The Cubs have not been able to get any kind of offense going, and with Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm allowing just 1 earned run over his last 13 innings, there is a strong chance the Cubs offensive shortage will continue tonight.
Ryan Dempster will try and stop the bleeding for Sweet Lou's team, but with losses in 2 of his last 3 trips to the hill, laying this kind of money on the righty is a losing propostion.
Play on the Pirates this Memorial Day.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Jeff Benton
San Diego at ARIZONA -125
For Monday’s freebie, we’ll head to Arizona and back the Diamondbacks in an afternoon Memorial Day contest against the Padres.
San Diego whipped the Cubs 7-2 on Sunday to cap a perfect nine-game homestand. So why go against a team that’s riding the longest win streak in baseball? Because they’re back on the road tonight, and San Diego has been pathetic as a visitor in 2009. We’re talking six wins in 23 road games, including an ongoing 11-game road losing skid. And they haven’t even been competitive during this road slide, with eight of those 11 defeats coming by more than a run.
As for the DBacks, no doubt it has been a very disappointing season in the desert. But they have been playing much better ball lately, winning six of their last eight games, and Sunday’s 6-2 loss at Oakland snapped a four-game winning streak. Also, Chase Field has been a house of horrors for San Diego in recent years, as it has lost 60 of its last 88 meetings with the DBacks in Arizona. That includes three straight losses to end last year’s season series, with Arizona pumping out 19 runs in those three contests.
Finally, even though his record (2-6) doesn’t show it, Arizona southpaw Doug Davis has been solid this year, posting a 3.95 ERA overall and a 3.38 ERA in four home games. And going back to his days with the Brewers, Davis has owned the Padres, going 8-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts, with San Diego going 1-9 the last 10 times they’ve seen the southpaw. Davis has delivered seven straight quality starts against the Padres, posting a 2.61 ERA along the way.
Throw in the fact that the Padres can’t hit lefties (.218 team average), and I’m all over the home team in this one as Arizona puts an end to San Diego’s overall winning streak … and extends the Friars’ losing skid.
4♦ ARIZONA