Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Utah State
2. 50,000* Magic
3. 50,000* San Diego
1. Utah State- I know every bettors initial instinct screams: "revenge" in this spot for Nevada, which is absolutely true, having lost to Utah State 77-63 February 2nd in Logan. While I agree in principle, it's the margin I have a big issue with, as the Aggies have proven to be the cream of the WAC crop and will not lose this game by as much as Vegas wants you to believe.
First of all, the Aggies offense is far too efficient, led by Jaycee Carroll and Gary Wilkinson, to allow an average Nevada defense to extend the margin. The Aggies average 69 ppg on an outstanding 49% shooting on the road, thanks in large part to the excellent efficiency of both Carroll and Wilkinson, who dominated their match ups with the Wolfpack 9 days ago, and will dominate them once again tonight.
Second, while its true Utah State is just 2-6 ATS on the road, those very same numbers are the reason we're getting some value here in this game. In their last road game, they won outright 77-72 as 1'-point dogs at Fresno State. An impressive road win no doubt, but obviously not enough to convince odds makers the Aggies have turned the corner on the road. Look guys, I'm not saying Utah State wins outright here, but this game will be close.
Finally, not to harp on it, but this is conference game... Utah State is not going to take this game lightly. I believe their complicated screen-heavy offense can score against any WAC defense, especially one as relatively average as Nevada's. Wolfpack's blowout wins over San Jose State (bounce back win after Utah State loss) and Hawaii (bad road team) have helped artificially balloon the number on this contest, as the Nevada is being given too much credit in this spot.
Bottom line, expect a razor close competitive contest in this WAC showdown, with the winner coming late. Either way, Utah State grabs the cash against a Nevada team that had little success stopping their offense the first time around this season, and won't have enough tonight to cover either.
Take Utah State plus the points over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Magic- Got to love the Magic in this spot, as they host a fatigued and short-handed Cavaliers squad tonight at home. Several strong trends in Orlando's favor, but none bigger than the fact the Cavs are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games with no rest!
Lebron James may be able to handle the fatigue, but his supporting cast of veterans simply cannot, and playing their 4th game in 5 nights right after playing the high-octane Nuggets won't help!
What's worse is the Cavs come into this game with some serious question marks, including the status of Gibson (Hamstring), Gooden (groin), and Ilgauskas (back). They're already without the high-energy Varejao, who would have filled in nicely if either Gooden or Ilgauskas can't go, but not with his left ankle sprain.
Also, considering the fatigue and the injuries, how can you possibly expect much from this Cavaliers offense tonight, averaging just 92 ppg on the road this season. They were terrible against the Nuggets last night at home, as James (with a little help from Hughes) was the only Cavalier to play with any energy. While Orlando's defense hasn't been great of late, they're good enough to stop the Cavs in their current state.
Finally, the key to the Magic's offense is the inside/out game with Dwight Howard. So, with Ilgauskas hurting, Gooden hurting, and Varejao out, who guards Howard? Look down the Cavs roster, and you'll quickly find, either one of those guys is going to have to play at less than 100%, or the the Cavs will be in big trouble... Either option is a bad one.
Bottom line, the Magic rout a tired and short-handed Cavs team in Orlando tonight. They're home loss to Lakers 3 days ago, only serves to motivate this Magic team even more tonight. Magic roll in this one!
Take the Magic at home BIG over the Cavaliers in this NBA match up.
3. San Diego- While recent match ups between these two teams have been close, I firmly believe the Dons are outmatched in a conference game that the Torreros must win if they are to keep pace with the St. Mary's and Gonzaga's of the world.
Over their last 3 home games, the Dons have lost to Holy Cross (non-lined contest) in OT 67-63, to St. Mary's by 22 points as 10-point dogs, and to Santa Clara by 18 points as 1-point dogs... Are you starting to see a pattern? The Dons could care less about their meaningless season, and it shows with pathetic efforts at home of late. While on the other hand, San Diego obviously needs to keep the conference wins coming, making for a huge gap in motivation tonight.
Several fundamental problems with the Dons, including the fact after their 4th leading scorer, the production drops off the face of the Earth (from Cavic's 9 ppg to Taylor's 3.9 ppg). Second, their point guard is a turnover machine, as Quezada's 94 turnovers on the season are ridiculous. And finally, while their scoring is decent at home (66 ppg on 43% shooting), they also allow 72 ppg on a mind-boggling 51% shooting there this season!
Finally, the last time these two teams played, a 46-41 San Diego home win, point guard Brandon Johnson had one of his worst games of the season. He's the catalyst for this Torreros offense, which is why they scored only 46 points in that game. Rest-assured, even on the road, Johnson will do much better this time around, as the Torreros notch another conference win, all while grabbing the cash in the process tonight!
Take San Diego comfortably over San Francisco in this WCC match up.
Dave Malinsky comp 4* play
GAME: Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats
SPORT: National Basketball Assoc.
PICK: under
Offered at: 209
REASON FOR PICK: 4* L.A. LAKERS/CHARLOTTE Under
Los Angeles has played 3-1 to the Under with Pau Gasol so far, as the marketplace continues to put the cart before the horse in terms of how this team is going to ultimately develop. Unfortunately the only time that we stepped in with an Under in that span was the one game that topped the Total, when the Lakers and Magic had that bizarre 77-point first quarter on Friday night before settling into a much more normal flow. Now we have a tired team playing its eight road game in 12 nights, and the legs are not going to be there for the kind of flow that is being called for.
Phil Jackson would have loved an easy time at Miami yesterday, after Kobe Bryant had to go 46 minutes, Lamar Odom 41 and Gasol 37 at Orlando on Friday. He did not get it, with Bryant going 42, Odom 43 and Gasol 34 vs. the Heat in a game that they never could break open. That adds to the kind of fatigue one would already expect when nearing the end of such a long road trip, and there is also another serious factor at hand – because of the finger injury that Bryant is fighting through, there has still not been a single practice with all hands on deck since Gasol joined the team. As such the chemistry is far from being settled, particularly at the offensive end of the court.
Sam Vincent is not going to do anything to push the pace here. The Bobcats are 10-5 to the Under as home underdogs this season (you might see a 9-6 elsewhere, but there was one result that took a swing because of overtime), which indicates his preferred way to go in these settings, and without leading scorer Gerald Wallace they lack the ability to score quickly anyway. Even with Jason Richardson having a huge game yesterday (27 points, 4-7 from 3-point range) they could manage only 87 points at Detroit, and the fact that Richardson had to go 39 minutes does not help in a back-to-back situation, especially since he has had to go at least 39 in each of the last three games. We do not expect to see this pace get anywhere near the current market projections.
Steve Merril
Kansas vs. Texas (NCAAB)
Pick: Texas
Kansas is a very good team, and quite possibly the best team in the nation, but one of their strengths will be cancelled out in this game tonight. The Jayhawks defense is solid, especially their perimeter defense as they excel in forcing their opponents to turn the ball over, but that part of their game has been lacking since their 9-point loss at Kansas State. On the season, Kansas averages 10 steals per game, but since the K-St game, they’ve only forced 18 turnovers. That’s a span of 4 games, and it’s of no coincidence that the Jayhawks have only covered 1 of those 4 games (by a single point).
Kansas will be hard pressed to force Texas into mistakes as the Longhorns are #1 in the country in not turning the ball over (only 9½ per game). “We are going to have to guard better on the perimeter because our perimeter defense hasn’t been very good,” Kansas head coach Bill Self said. “Our technique has gotten pretty flawed and careless. We are getting beat way too much on the bounce because of lunging and reaching and we are not forcing turnovers. It’s a bad combination when you don’t force any turnovers and you still get beat. We can do both. We can pressure and not get beat, but that certainly hasn’t been the case of late.”
Texas plays a three-guard offense with the best point guard in the country, D.J. Augustin, running the show which will present a huge match-up problem for Kansas tonight. Texas plays on a very strong home court where they’ve gone an awesome 43-3 SU over the last three years, while never being a home dog during that span. The Longhorns have already beaten Tennessee and UCLA as underdogs this year, and Texas was a perfect 2-0 ATS versus Kansas last year.
Play TEXAS (+).
Valparaiso vs. Illinois Chicago
Pick: Illinois Chicago
Illinois-Chicago has an extremely strong home court where they stand 10-1 SU (7-1 ATS), outshooting their opponents 50.7% to 33.0% from the field, with an average win by +13.7 points per game.
Illinois-Chicago enters this game on a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS run, including an impressive outright dog win at Loyola on Saturday. The Flames now fit a 106-65 ATS momentum situation, while Valparaiso qualifies in a negative 88-145 ATS situation based on their three straight losses. Valparaiso might still be a bit flat after their overtime defeat at Wisc-Green Bay and the Crusaders are in terrible current form with a 0-4-2 ATS record in their past six games.
My power ratings favor Illinois-Chicago by 3 points tonight, plus the Flames have revenge from a 60-56 road loss last month. Illinois-Chicago held a 40-33 lead at halftime and still lost by just four points, despite shooting just 31% from the field, including only 28% from three-point range and just 63.6% from the free throw line.
Play ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (-).
Pepperdine vs. Portland U
Pick: Pepperdine
In a battle of two bad teams, the value lies with the underdog, especially since my power ratings favor Portland by just 3 points tonight. Pepperdine is also a solid 18-8 ATS as a road underdog the past two years, while Portland is 0-6 ATS at home this season.
Pepperdine was embarrassed on Saturday night in a 59-101 loss at Gonzaga, but they should bounce back tonight as they fit a 90-55 ATS situation which plays on losing road underdogs that are coming off a 20+ point SU road loss.
Portland is a weak 2-6 SU in conference games and has lost by an average of -8.9 points per game and is being outshot 40.5% to 47.4% from the field, which will make it difficult for the Pilots to cover as a favorite tonight.
Play PEPPERDINE (+).
Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga
Pick: Loyola Marymount
It will be very difficult for Gonzaga to be focused for this game as they already beat Loyola by 23 points last month. This same situation occurred last year when Gonzaga won the first meeting by 35 points and then lost the rematch outright by 6 points.
Gonzaga is coming off an easy 101-59 win on Saturday and they now fit a negative 28-59 ATS situation which plays against big home favorites playing with just one day’s rest. Gonzaga was in a similar situation last month when they won by just 8 points as a 19½ point home favorite versus San Francisco.
Loyola is 2-0 ATS in their past two games and they have only lost once in their past eight games by more than 24 points. This line seems a bit inflated as my power ratings favor Gonzaga by only 30 points, and Loyola fits a 71-38 ATS contrary indicator which plays on big road underdogs that are coming off a SU road loss.
Play LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (+).
Wolkosky Milan
10* CHARLOTTE +8½
10* DALLAS -3½
10* CLE/ORL UNDER 196½
10* LAC/MIL UNDER 193½
Zen Gambler
NBA Monster Lock 4000*
Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats over 208.5
NBA Monster Lock 1000*
Toronto Raptors -1.0
Kyle Baugues
100 Units Utah State +7
100 Units Illinois Chicago -1
100 Units Wisc. Green Bay +3.5
100 Units Portland -5
Scott Delaney
10* Wisconsin GB
10* Illinois Chicago
10* Houston Rockets
Cash & Profit Experts
CBB
Ill-Chicago -1.5 Pod
NBA
La Lakers/Charlotte Under 209.5
Bob. Balfe
Bobcats +8.5
Wisconsin GB +4
Jim Kruger/ Vegas Sports Authority
Ill-Chi -1.5
San Diego -3.5
Stan Lisowski
3* ILL-CHI
Joe Wiz
Pepperdine
Ill Chicago
San Fran
Black Widow Sports Picks
1* on Cleveland State -4
Cleveland State has to get their season turned around tonight at home if they want any shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Cleveland State already owns big home wins over Butler and Valparaiso in conference play this season. They will step up big against one of the better teams in the Horizon League tonight when they take on Wisconsin-Green Bay. WGB is just 4-8 in road games, yielding 77 points per game. WGB is 5-17 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland State is 10-2 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Their 9-3 home record this season gives the edge to Cleveland State Monday. Take Cleveland State and lay the points.
InfoPlays
3* on Lakers/Bobcats OVER 208.5
The Lakers and Bobcats will provide an exciting high-scoring affair for all NBA fans tonight. The Lakers are scoring 107 points per game on the season and are even more potent on the offensive side of the ball now that Pau Gasol is wearing a Lakers’ uniform. Charlotte is giving up a ridiculous 116 points per game over their last 5 games. The OVER is 4-0-1 during this pathetic run by the Bobcats. The Lakers are 19-8 OVER in a road game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Bet the OVER 208.5 points.
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on Utah State +6.5
It's ridiculous for 18-6 Utah State to be catching this many points against 15-8 Nevada. Especially since the Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. But the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Utah State has won 9 of the last 14 games in this matchup. The books made a mistake here. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Loyola Marymount +30.5
Gonzaga's huge win over Pepperdine has inflated this line and we'll take advantage by taking the points. Loyola is actually 2-1 ATS versus the Zags on the road the past 3 seasons and comes into this one off back-to-back covers. The biggest reason why Gonzaga does not cover this number is the freshness factor. The Bulldogs are just 3-12 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons. Gonzaga is 1-10 ATS in home games off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and 4-17 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 3 seasons period. Take the points tonight.
Paul Leiner
10* Loyola Marymount +30.5