Mountain West Matters
Nelly's Sportsline
The NCAA tournament went poorly for the Mountain West Conference last season but this year the league appears to have two teams in line for solid seeding in the Big Dance with two more fighting for at-large positions and the automatic berth from the conference tournament. Twice in the last five years the Mountain West has had a team in the Sweet 16 so this conference is capable of being dangerous even though the league's reputation has suffered in recent years.
Last season Utah won the automatic bid but was stuck in a tough 5/12 match-up with Arizona, losing by 13 despite being the superior seed. While many felt Arizona did not deserve to be in the tournament, the Wildcats were a talented team and opened as the favorite in the match-up, eventually playing its way to Sweet 16. In 2009 BYU was matched up with Texas A&M in an 8/9 match-up for the second straight year and it again proved to be a tough game for the Cougars, falling 79-66. Utah's #5 seed was the highest seed for a Mountain West team in the past five seasons and this year both BYU and New Mexico could reach that level or higher as both sit at 25-3 while being well regarded in both national polls.
The Mountain West has had a few recent examples of dangerous postseason teams with UNLV winning the first two rounds in 2007, beating Georgia Tech and #2 seed Wisconsin before losing narrowly to Oregon. That year BYU also played tough with a Xavier squad that nearly beat eventual finalist Ohio State the following game. In 2005 #6 seeded Utah advanced to the Sweet 16 as well with wins over Utah and Oklahoma before falling against Kentucky. The league also has some rich history with great runs by Utah in the late '90s and UNLV in the late '80s and early '90s. This could be another strong year for the Mountain West in the NCAA tournament.
New Mexico won the first meeting with BYU, a match-up between the top two contenders 76-72 at home. Both teams have two losses in conference play with a meeting next weekend in Provo. New Mexico has momentum with eleven straight wins entering this week but there have been a few close calls, including OT wins against San Diego State and Utah as well as a surprisingly narrow win at home against Air Force last weekend. New Mexico certainly has produced a worthy resume for solid seeding consideration as there are several decent quality wins, beating California, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton, and Creighton in non-conference play. The two conference losses came against the two bubble teams in this league and the only somewhat bad loss came on the road against Oral Roberts.
BYU gets the re-match game at home so they should be the favorites to win the regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. New Mexico currently has a slightly higher RPI than BYU but some of the other computer numbers like the Pomeroy Ratings favor the Cougars as the superior team. The only non-conference loss for BYU came at Utah State and that will be the calling card win for the Aggies as they maintain their own bubble hopes. BYU has not lost at home all season as they also lost on the road at UNLV in addition to the narrow loss at New Mexico. In non-conference play there are not many high quality wins but several decent quality wins and many of those games came away from home. Highlight wins came at home against Arizona State, at Arizona and at UTEP, as well as neutral games with Nevada and Nebraska.
San Diego State did not look like a NCAA tournament team for most of the season but the Aztecs have gained some late season momentum. The Aztecs split with New Mexico this season and this week's game at BYU could be a critical game for the at-large bid chances for this team. The biggest issue for San Diego State will be the lack of non-conference wins as wins over Drake and Arizona did not pan out to be as impressive as they once looked. St. Mary's and Pacific could well be tournament teams but losses to those teams will not help as those teams are not pulling enough weight to make a really strong case for this team. A conference loss at Wyoming will also be crippling for the Aztecs so another marquee win is probably needed this week and possibly as well as in the conference tournament.
UNLV has slid back to the bubble with recent three-game losing streak. The losses to New Mexico and San Diego State could probably be justified but for the second time this season the Rebels lost to Utah. UNLV has a big win against Louisville early in the season to help its cause and losses to Kansas State and USC do not hurt the resume at all and actually gives UNLV a schedule strength edge against many of its bubble peers. The Aztecs also have wins over Arizona, SMU, Weber State, and conference wins against the top two teams winning at New Mexico and at home against BYU. UNLV will be heavily favored in its final three games so the Rebels should actually finish in fine shape barring a major upset, likely going 11-5 in a decent quality league and having enough ammunition to get a bid. The conference tournament is also in Las Vegas so the Rebels should be in a favorable position to be a sleeper for the automatic bid.
By most measures the Mountain West rates as the top non-BCS league so the selection committee should give the bubble teams some benefit of the doubt. In year where the major conference teams will not hog the at-large bids due to limited depth in the Big Ten and ACC as well as a very down Pac-10. Barring major collapses, the NCAA tournament should feature the best Mountain West representation in years and the league will be a viable threat to have a team still playing after the opening weekend.
UNLV and San Diego State do not have a huge margin for error but overall both teams look like they will end up in good position for the NCAA tournament. San Diego State can basically clinch a spot with an upset over BYU but could also probably survive a loss with a strong finish and a good conference tournament showing. Currently the Bracketology at ESPN has New Mexico as #3 seed, BYU as a #4 seed, and UNLV as a #8 seed while San Diego State has the undesirable designation as the first team out. That all will change and assuming the bubble does not squeeze too hard with upsets in conference tournaments, all four teams can get in making a great year for the Mountain West.