MVC Tourney Preview
By Joe Nelson
The Missouri Valley deservedly received a lot of attention a few years ago as the cream of the crop among the non-BCS conferences but that stature had faded a bit the last three years. Northern Iowa has clinched the regular season title and appears to be relatively safe for an at-large spot should the Panthers falter in the conference tournament which could be a wide open affair. The Panthers lost to last place Evansville last week so surprises in the conference tournament that starts this week should be expected. Wichita State and Illinois State have been the next best teams in the league but both would fall short in the eyes of the NCAA tournament selection committee so a lot will be on the line in what will be a very meaningful and likely closely contested tournament.
With ten teams playing over the course of four consecutive days the bracket for the Missouri Valley tournament lines up neatly with the top two seeds, Northern Iowa and Wichita State, earning byes. All games are being played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The bottom four teams will play Thursday with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals against the top two seeds and forming a standard eight-team bracket. The #1 seed has won the tournament the past two years with Northern Iowa winning last season and Drake winning in 2008 but prior to that the top seed had failed to earn the automatic bid in nine straight years. The top two seeds have met in the championship five times in the past twelve years but 2008 was the only year in that span where the #1 seed won that match-up.
Drake and Southern Illinois face off in the opening #8/9 match-up on Thursday night. In the regular season Drake won both meetings, winning by five on the road and by seven at home. The Bulldogs did close the year poorly however, losing seven of the final ten games including dropping the home finale against last place Evansville. Southern Illinois was not any better in the final ten games as the Salukis closed the season in a 6-12 rut after starting the year 9-2. Both of these teams won their bracket buster match-ups and did produce upset wins against some of the upper echelon teams in the league so both would be more than capable of posing a threat to top seed Northern Iowa in the next game, although the Panthers did sweep both teams in the regular season.
Northern Iowa can not feel completely safe about its NCAA tournament prospects despite an impressive 25-4 campaign. The bracket buster win over Old Dominion was likely the strongest victory of the season as non-conference wins over Boston College, Iowa State, Iowa, and Siena did not pan out to be as strong as they appeared at the time. It would be a surprise and a mistake to leave the Panthers out of the NCAA tournament field but this team has given its detractors some ammunition to work with. Northern Iowa lost two of its final five games both to marginal teams, 15-14 Bradley and 9-20 Evansville. A third bad loss in the opening Missouri Valley tournament game could push the Panthers to the bubble even with a convincing regular season league title.
The late game on Thursday features Missouri State and Evansville. Losing the final game of the season in overtime to Indiana State was costly for the Bears and led to this seeding and the extra game. Missouri State started the season strong, opening 10-0 and then 12-1 including a couple of solid non-conference wins, beating Auburn, Tulsa, and St. Louis but the conference season proved very difficult. If any team is the ultimate dark horse in this tournament it could be the Bears who finished 8-10 in league play but seven of those losses came by six-points or less. The two games with Wichita State were both losses for Missouri State but the combined margin of defeat was only five points in the two games and the Bears also played close in both losses to Northern Iowa.
Evansville won only three games in league play but all three came in the last month and included home upsets over both of the top two teams in the conference. Evansville won the final two games of the regular season so the Aces will have a little bit of momentum for a last place team. Evansville lost by double-digits in both regular season meetings with Missouri State however so this could be a tough opening game to get by. Wichita State closed the season just 4-4 in the final eight games with slim margins on most of the victories. The Shockers were a great home team this season but went just 2-7 S/U in conference road games so this could be a team that is vulnerable in this tournament as a #2 seed even in the opening game against a much worse seeded squad.
Creighton and Bradley will meet in the afternoon quarterfinal on Friday and this should prove to be a closely contested match-up as the #4/5 seeding would suggest. Creighton finished league play at 10-8 and it certainly was a down year for a Blue Jays team that is accustomed to being among the top teams in this conference. The 16-14 overall record looks questionable but this team ended up playing a very tough non-conference schedule as teams like New Mexico, Xavier, and Dayton all had strong seasons. Creighton beat Bradley in both meetings this season including the home finale less than a week ago but it can be very difficult to beat a team three times in a season. Bradley started the conference season poorly but picked up big wins down the stretch including home victories against the top two seeds. Bradley did not have great success in road games this season however so it will be tough to expect a great run from the Braves.
The #3/6 match-up features Illinois State against Indiana State. These teams split in the regular season with the home teams winning comfortably in both meetings. Illinois State closed the season with wins in six of the final seven games but probably needed to upset Northern Iowa in the regular season finale to make a legitimate case on the bubble. Still if the bubble expands significantly and the Redbirds can play to the conference tournament final, there may a case to be made with the great late season play. Indiana State played in four overtime games in the conference season and this was a very competitive team in most games. One of the uncompetitive affairs was the most recent meeting between these two teams which Illinois State won by 17 just over a week ago. The Sycamores did win six of the final ten games but only one of those wins came on the road.
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will not have a lot of drama in terms of teams playing their way into the NCAA tournament as this should clearly be just a one-bid league if Northern Iowa wins the automatic bid and a two-bid league if another team wins it but it should serve up compelling and entertaining basketball. This conference has only sent one team to the NCAA tournament in the last two years and both teams saw a first round exit but in very close games. Over the past four years the Missouri Valley has produced three Sweet 16 teams however so this is a conference to keep an eye even if the league is not getting the attention of years past.
Missouri Valley Conference Betting Preview
Doug Upstone
This will be the first conference of the more prominent mid-majors and they will enjoy a national audience to boot for its championship encounter. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of Arch Madness in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State.
The Favorites
Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa are the defending champs and seek third title since 2004.
Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 and 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.
Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to championship, Illinois State will have to play superior defense like they have been lately and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.
The Long Shots
Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesnt look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.
Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.
The Numbers
The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
There have been 11 instances since 2004 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.
Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
The Outcome
In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.
The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowas veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.