What Bettors Need To Know: Butler vs. Duke
By RICKY DIMON
“The Butler Way”
Barry Collier adopted “the Butler Way” when he coached the Bulldogs from 1989-2000. Ten years later, “the Butler Way” has this group of Bulldogs in the National Championship.
But just what is it?
“It’s just the way we carry ourselves on and off the court,” explained senior forward Willie Veasley. “It’s something when you come here, you live it. It’s a core value, something you take pride in, something you hold yourself accountable for.”
Whatever it is, it has led to an amazing 25 straight victories. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has not lost since a 67-57 setback at UAB on December 22.
The way these Bulldogs have been winning is with defense and toughness, not jaw-dropping talent or high-powered offense. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo knows that all too well after his team’s 52-50 loss on Saturday night.
“It was one of the more physical game we've been involved in, and playing in the Big Ten, that's saying something,” Izzo remarked. “They play as hard as anybody we've played. They are physical.”
Said Butler forward Gordon Hayward, who came up with a critical blocked shot to preserve a 1-point advantage in the final seconds: “I thought it was fitting that we had to get a defensive stop on that last possession of the game because that's how we've won all season. We had to win the Butler way.”
Three-headed monster
Duke’s “S” trio of Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith has been leading the way for the Blue Devils all season, and more of the same is continuing in this NCAA Tournament.
Singler, Scheyer and Smith combined for 57 of 78 points against Purdue, 54 of 78 against Baylor and 63 of 78 in Saturday night’s blowout win over West Virginia. They combined to shoot a devastating 12-for-23 from beyond the arc at the expense of the Mountaineers.
“We were not going to beat West Virginia without a great performance,” coach Mike Krzyzewski said in a post-game interview with CBS.
While that is almost certainly untrue given the 21-point margin of victory, he certainly got a great performance from his players, including from the star trio’s supporting cast.
Offensive rebounding has been a key to Duke’s success all year long, and Brian Zoubek pulled down five of his 10 boards at the offensive end. Both of Lance Thomas’ rebounds were of the offensive variety and no team does a better job of getting second-chance looks from 3-point range than Duke.
Butler big man hurting
Butler forward Matt Howard's status is in question for Monday night's national championship game against Duke.
Bulldogs coach Brad Stevens said Howard would not practice Sunday after suffering a head injury in the second half of Saturday night's 52-50 victory over Michigan State in the Final Four.
He is listed as a game-time decision for Monday. Howard was the Horizon Player of the Year last season.
Howard collided with a teammate and a Michigan State player in the second half. He played for a couple of minutes before asking out.
"We actually thought he was OK," Stevens said. "Then he came over and said he wasn't feeling good."
The Houston Chronicle reported that Butler's coaching staff said Howard was suffering from concussion-like symptoms.
Howard entered Saturday's game averaging 11.6 points and 5.2 rebounds, but he scored just four points on 1-of-7 shooting in 15 minutes against Michigan State.
David vs. Goliath…literally
This is not just a mismatch in terms of a “mid-major” team from the Horizon League going up against the ACC Champions.
Duke sports a front line of Zoubek (7-foot-1), Thomas (6-foot-8, 240 pounds) and the 6-foot-10 Plumlee twins (Miles and Mason). Butler’s corps group of players features nobody taller than 6-foot-9 (Hayward).
The Blue Devils have won the rebounding battle in all five of their NCAA Tournament contests and they have reached double-figures on the offensive glass in all five outings. Against Baylor, Duke hauled in a shocking 22 offensive boards. Against Baylor, Duke out-rebounded the Boilermakers 45-22.
Needless to say, the pressure will be on Hayward and 6-foot-8 forwards Avery Jukes and Matt Howard to keep Zoubek and Thomas off the glass.
Something’s gotta give
Butler’s stingy defense against Duke’s clicking offense will be the story of Monday night’s National Championship.
The Bulldogs have not allowed any of their five NCAA Tournament opponents to score 60 points in a game. In fact, Butler has limited 12 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 60 points.
So good was their defense on Saturday against Michigan State that the Bulldogs still won despite shooting an unimaginably bad 30.6 percent at the other end of the floor.
Duke, on the other hand, has failed to reach the 60-point mark just once this entire season - once in 38 games. The Blue Devils poured in 78 in each of their past two contests, which resulted in wins over Baylor in the South Region final and over West Virginia. Duke drained 13-of-25 3-pointers against the Mountaineers.
Common opponents
The Bulldogs and Blue Devils have faced two common opponents this season, Clemson and Georgetown. Butler fell to the Tigers 70-69 on a neutral court while Duke hammered Clemson on two different occasions (74-53 at home and 60-47 on the road).
Both the Bulldogs and the Blue Devils lost to Georgetown. Butler went down 72-65 in Madison Square Garden and Duke got manhandled by the Hoyas 89-77 at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
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The Bulldogs are 8-3 in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games and 5-1 ATS in their last six overall
The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS during this NCAA Tournament.
Both Butler (15-20 O/U) and Duke (16-22 O/U) have been solid under plays this season. The under is 9-1 in Butler’s last 10 overall and 2-4 in Duke’s last six overall.
Butler's defense has made a mockery of over/under lines during the tourney. Butler's games have finished below the closing total by an average of 15 points in the team's last four games.
Duke vs. Butler
By Brian Edwards
Although Duke was made a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday, few experts felt like the Blue Devils were going to be playing for the national title in Indianapolis this season. Certainly not after they lost by double digits at North Carolina St. on Jan. 20, nor when they got throttled at Georgetown.
But Mike Krzyzewski’s team has turned it on after coasting through the ACC Tournament with three outright wins. Duke failed to cover in all three of those games against conference rivals, but the Blue Devils have taken the cash in all five of their NCAA Tournament games.
The three-headed scoring combination of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith stole the show in Saturday’s easier-than-anticipated 78-57 win over West Virginia in the national semifinals. Coach K’s squad hooked up its backers as short 2 ½-point favorites, while the ‘over’ hit when the 135 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 131-point total.
Scheyer, the senior combo guard, was nothing short of sensational, scoring 23 points while dishing out six assists compared to zero turnovers. Singler shook off an abysmal 0-for-10 shooting performance against Baylor in the Elite Eight to score 21 points, grab nine rebounds and dish out five assists. Smith finished with 19 points and like Scheyer, had six assists to zero turnovers.
Duke set a Final Four record by draining 13 attempts from 3-point range. Just like in the win over Baylor last Sunday, the Blue Devils nailed a number of 3-balls on clean looks after the team’s big men grabbed offensive rebounds and immediately kicked the ball back out before the WVU defense could recover.
In the first national-semifinal matchup, Butler beat Michigan St. 52-50 in a defensive struggle. Even though the Bulldogs had to play at crunch time without two of its best players in Matt Howard (‘mildest of mild’ concussion) and Shelvin Mack (thigh cramps), they collected the victory thanks to the brilliant play of sophomore forward Gordon Hayward.
Hayward scored 10 of his team’s first 11 points, knocking down his first four shots, including back-to-back treys that evened the game at 6-6 after the Spartans roared out to a 6-0 lead. Hayward would go on to finish with 19 points, nine rebounds, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. His clutch bucket at the 1:40 mark put the Bulldogs ahead by a 50-46 score, and he sealed the victory by rebounding an intentional miss by Michigan St. at the charity stripe with two ticks left.
With Butler and Duke surviving Saturday, we’ve reduced the field from 65 to just two. And they meet Monday on CBS at 9:15 p.m. Eastern.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Duke (34-5 straight up, 23-12-2 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total of 129. However, the number was up to seven and as high as 7 ½ as of Sunday night. Bettors can take the Bulldogs to pull the upset for a plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300) at Sportsbook.com.
Butler has won 25 in a row and hasn’t tasted defeat since suffering a 67-57 loss at UAB way back on Dec. 22. The Bulldogs have beaten the likes of a No. 1 seed (Syracuse) and a No. 2 seed (Kansas St.), in addition to sending home Tom Izzo’s team that has been to six of the last 12 Final Fours.
The Bulldogs have found ways to win when trailing at halftime like in their first-round game against UTEP. They’ve found a way to win by getting stops at crunch time like in their second-round nail-biter against Murray St. And, as previously mentioned, they’ve won with Howard and Mack both nursing injuries, not to mention the victories in which Howard spent most of the game in foul trouble.
Mack will definitely play Monday, while Howard is listed as “questionable” and will be a game-time decision. Despite that shaky status, it says here that Howard is most certainly going to be on the court.
These schools only had a pair of common foes in Clemson and Georgetown. Duke hammered the Tigers in a pair of meetings, 74-53 in Durham and 60-47 in Littlejohn Coliseum. Butler lost a 70-69 decision to Clemson on a neutral court back in November. The Bulldogs lost to Georgetown 72-65 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The Blue Devils went down 89-77 to the Hoyas at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C.
The ‘under’ is on a 9-1 run for Butler in its last 10 games, going 20-15 overall. Duke has seen the ‘under’ cash at a 22-16 overall clip.
Brad Stevens is aiming to become the second-youngest coach to win a national title at the age of 33. His Bulldogs have been listed as underdogs seven times, compiling a 3-4 SU record and a 4-3 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Duke has a 10-6-1 ATS ledger in 17 games as a single-digit favorite.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
For first-half wagers, most betting shops have Duke favored by four with the total in the 59-60 range.
Butler and Duke last met on Jan. 30 of 2003 with the Blue Devils stroking the Bulldogs 80-60 as 14-point home favorites at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Butler is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven NCAA Tournament games during Stevens’ tenure. During his first year, the Bulldogs lost a 76-71 decision to Tennessee as 4 ½-point underdogs in the first round. During 2008-2009, LSU beat Butler 75-71 as a 1 ½-point favorite.
The cramps and dehydration that kept Butler’s Mack on the sidelines for most of the last nine minutes against Michigan St might have been caused by food poisoning. "I think I had some food poisoning on Thursday," Mack said. "It was in a restaurant. I was throwing up real bad."
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National Championship Preview
Since 1985, seeds lower than 4 playing in national title game are 2-3 in finals, losing the last three (Michigan '92/Florida '00/Indiana '02), after '85 Villanova/'88 Kansas posted upset wins. This is only second time in last eight years a 1-seed is playing non-1-seed in final-- since 1990, a #1 seed is 9-1 SU (7-3 vs spread) against a non-#1 seed ('97 Arizona over Kentucky). Duke is 3-4 in national finals under Coach K; this is their first appearance in the national championship game since 2001.
Butler won its last 24 games, last losing Dec 22; their opponents shoot 31.8% from arc (61st in country), a critical stat in this game, since Duke was 13-26 from arc vs West Virginia and makes 38.7% from arc for the season. If Duke goes off behind the arc, Butler has no shot, but Bulldogs are giving up just 55.2 ppg in this tournament-- they'll defend well. So big question becomes, can they match Duke's physical play, as Howard has concussion and may not play. Mack is OK to play.
When teams lose in semis, their fans sell their tickets and go home; who do you think is buying up those tickets? Butler fans, thats who; this is going to be road game for Duke, but they're used to being the bad guy on the road. Duke isn't the best team in the country, but they're healthy and playing their best ball right now- they riddled Cal/WestVirginia teams, and refs pulled them through the Baylor game. Logic says Duke wins.
2003 Syracuse is last underdog to win national title game; before that, it is way back to 1999 UConn, which upset Duke as 9.5-point underdogs in title game. Only hopeless romantics will pick Butler in this game, but they do have a shot, if Scheyer has a bad game behind arc. We can hope.
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Butler Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils
Bulldogs: The Cinderella run continues, as the hometown Butler Bulldogs just keep winning. The improbable run continued with Butler overcoming a sluggish start to beat Michigan St. 52-50 to advance to the NCAA Championship game. Butler has been winning with defense, as they haven't allowed any of their opponents to score more than 59 PTS in the Tournament. Butler is 33-4 SU and 17-20 ATS overall this season. Butler has won 25 consecutive games SU as they enter their 1st ever Championship game. Butler is 18-4 SU and 11-11 ATS outside of their home gym this season, including 6-3 in neutral court scenarios. The Bulldogs are 4-3 ATS this season as the listed underdog, including 2-0 SU in this very Tournament. Butler plays well in expected defensive battles this season, going 9-5 ATS in games with an expected total between 120 and 129.5 PTS. F Gordon Hayward leads the Bulldogs with team highs of 15.6 PPG and 8.2 RPG this season. The reigning Horizon League Player of the Year will need to have a huge game for the Bulldogs to play the role of David against Duke's Goliath.
Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as an underdog of 7 to 12.5 PTS.
Under is 4-0 last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
Key Injuries - G Shelvin Mack (thigh) is probable.
F Matt Howard (head) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 59 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Blue Devils (-7, O/U 129): Coach Krzyzewski has Duke 1 win away from the 4th National Championship under his tenure. There is little doubt that Duke is playing their best basketball of the season right now, as only 1 opponent in the NCAA Tournament has stayed within single digits of the Blue Devils. Duke has only allowed 1 Tournament opponent to score more than 57 PTS against them. Offensively, Duke has scored at least 70 PTS in 4 of their 5 Tournament games. Duke played arguably their best game of the season in beating West Virginia by 21 PTS. The trio of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler were dominant against West Virginia, scoring 63 of the Blue Devils 78 PTS. The trio have been doing this all season long, as they account for 70% of the Blue Devils scoring this year. Duke is 34-5 SU and 23-13-2 ATS overall this season. The Blue Devils are 17-5 SU and 12-9-1 ATS away from home this season, including a perfect 12-0 SU in neutral court contests. Duke is 23-14 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 10-6-1 ATS as a single digit favorite. Duke has had no problem handling defensive minded teams this season, going 12-5 ATS against teams that allow less than 64 PPG this season. Duke only had 6 turnovers against West Virginia, and have had less than 10 turnovers in 11 games this season.
Duke is 5-0 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Under is 12-5 last 17 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 64
DUNKEL INDEX
Columbus at St. Louis
The Blues look to build on their 8-1 record in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. St. Louis is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175)
Game 1-2: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.679; Washington 12.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over
Game 3-4: Columbus at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.222; St. Louis 12.852
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under
Game 5-6: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.884; Edmonton 10.768
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Over
With out a doubt the best championship game I have ever seen. 😮