National Championship Trends Monday 4/5

BUTLER vs. DUKE
BUTLER: 12-5 ATS after 1+ consecutive unders
DUKE: 6-0 Over after covering the spread in 4+ consecutive games

BUTLER vs. DUKE
Butler is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Blue Monday for Butler and Duke

By Doug Upstone

It comes down to this. Yahoo Sports probably had it best with this headline –David vs. Duke. The lovable Butler Bulldogs have captured college basketball’s imagination with its improbable run to the national championship game with a coach and its best player looking younger than next year’s incoming recruiting class. Big bad Duke, sort of the New York Yankees of the hardwood, is loved by their fans hated by everyone else.

This is setting up as the sequel of “Hoosiers”, just in modern day. A band of talented young men led a by a coach who looks like an AAU coach just out of college goes to the sports title game in the school’s home city and nearby Hinkle Fieldhouse (the team’s real home) is replaced by Lucas Oil Stadium. This is so ridiculous a movie producer would can the screen play as a joke.

There is no joking about the talent of Gordon Hayward, who had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first Final Four contest and was the calmest player you will ever see when introduced for a big game. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has won 25 contents in a row and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, after many had believed they could have lost to UTEP or Murray State in their first two encounters of this tournament.

Even losing coach Tom Izzo was impressed.

“If I was not playing, I'd be a Butler fan," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "I like they way they play, I like their story. They play like a Big Ten team." The Bulldogs are now 26-14 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Duke’s return to prominence has some people feeling blue. The Blue Devils (34-5, 23-14-1 ATS) are back, playing with that confidence that comes from wearing a uniform that many consider a four-letter word. Coach Mike Krzyzewski had his team so well prepared it looked like a scrimmage against West Virginia at various points of the game.

Duke regularly solved the Mountaineers switching defense, getting a number of shot attempts within four feet of the rim. Once West Virginia players became overly conscious of Blue Devils players on the inside, it was target practice, as the Big 3 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer) shredded their defense on 12 for 23 shooting behind the three-point line.

The Blue Devils are 19-11 ATS after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season and know this isn’t about just three players shooting the ball well.
“We won this game as a team," Singler said. "It wasn't just put on my shoulders, or Jon's or Nolan's. We won this game from all sides contributing."

Part of the team is a man possessed, center Brian Zoubek who again pulled down 10 rebounds. His determination, which borders on serious anger, has him pulling down rebounds like mad man from a Rob Zombie movie. As Duke goes after its fourth national championship for Coach K, this is how Zoubek feels. “This is the culmination of four years for me. To have a shot at the championship my senior year, after everything we've been through, is a dream come true."

Duke was near perfect against West Virginia and they are 9-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers which plays a part why Sportsbook.com has them as seven-point favorites, with total of 129. Coach Krzyzewski is making sure everyone knows that despite Butler not having the brand recognition of the team he coach’s, this opponent is no fairy tale.

“I think they're one of the best teams in the country," Krzyzewski said of Butler. "I think a Cinderella would be more if somebody had eight or nine losses and pulled some upsets." The Devils are 12-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game this season and are 8-1 UNDER after they’ve made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots the last three years.

Butler could start this game at a real disadvantage, considering Duke’s size and rebounding ability. Forward Matt Howard did not practice with his team Sunday and is a "game-time decision" according to his coach Brad Stevens. Howard is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and would be sorely missed. Butler guard Shelvin Mack said he suffered cramps and will be ready.

Butler’s help-defense has become the talk of the tournament, along with its incredible patience on offense, which is why they are 12-5 ATS after one or more Under’s this year. The Bulldogs are 11-2 OVER after scoring 60 points or less.

This matchup seems real simple, Butler cannot shoot 30.6 percent like they did against the Spartans and they cannot allow Duke to convert 52.7 percent as they did vs. West Virginia. If the Blue Devils are raining shots, Duke covers and wins convincingly. However, if the Bulldogs find three players to make shots consistently, box-out effectively to draw Duke fouls, where they can march to the charity stripe and convert 73.8 percent like they have all season, well, it is game on.

No matter what, one team will be blue and green with envy.