NBA 2010 Over/Under play

OK, hit 2 of 3 to start the season, missed the side play due to 2 factors, Philly amateur Q3 of 13 pts and/or the fact they put Miami on the line 31 times, giving them an entire quarter's worth of points on FT's. Still, I'll take 2 of 3 every night if I can get it.
Play record: 1-0 team, 1-0 game, 0-1 side
My record: 2-1

Tonight, a couple of spots active from same play:

Cle Un 99'
Sac/Cle Un 196
Sac +3

Mil Un 94'
Charl/Mil Un 183
Charl +6

Team totals are estimates, not out yet. Will update if they come up before I leave.
Again, team totals have the highest W %, records for all three plays in opening post in this thread.
I do not have the day-of-week breakdown. Day of week is something I consider in NBA because I think the home court advantage is a bit higher than avg. on Fri and Sat night.
Thinking about it because both teams are in home end of A-H spot (away last night, home tonight) Will chart that also this year and see if we can come up with a sub-category that provides us with a higher W %.
For tonight, I will buy all six plays.

OK, well that was pretty ugly last time in, 1-2 in Cleve game, and 0-3 in Mil; Cleve game was out of reach early as Sac allowed two Q's of over 30 pts; Mil game was on good pace for game, but high Q4 killed that.

Whenever you play three wagers in same game, you run risk of dropping all three if the team expected to under perform hits high FG %, but you can also hit all three if they perform as expected. After taking this early 0'fer I decided to go back into LY's log and check records for 0-3 and 3-0. Here's what we got: 0-3 happened eight times, 3-0 happened 7 times. I'll go back into the log today and see if I can isolate a commonality in the eight 0-3's, maybe they all happened when the team was a home fave, or they were in a similar sequence, such as H-A (home-away).
Anyway . . .
The play is 3-6 now, and my record is 3-6 as I played them all. Normally I wait a few weeks, chart some plays, check %'s, but I have some $ to play with from football earnings so what the hell (and my NBA unit is smaller than my NCAA football unit, so this play is easy to cover.) Another reason to wait is because the other system mentioned above has longer, stronger history, and we won;'t start seeing any of those for another 2-3 weeks. But, tonight we have a play a game that fits parameters and I'll buy all three:

LAC Un 92'
SA/LAC Un 192'
SA -7'

(I got 193, but in the time it took to type this the odds screen lit up, 192' is the common # so that is what I will use here - it does no one any good when someone posts numbers that are not readily available.)

Good luck with your play today . . .

UPDATE: And just as quickly, the screen lights up again and 194 - 194'' everywhere now. I hate basketball . . . For records, #'s are stated above (except team total which is not out yet. Will update once more with that.)
Update: Bought too early today, 195 now. Team totals are now up, at least I picked up a point there, got 93'.

Swept last time in with Clips/Spurs game, 3-0, chart for this play pulls even at 6-6, my record is the same as I played every one.
Got two games active tonight:
Minn Un 93
Min/Orl Un 205
Orl -18'

Mil Un 89
Mil/Bos Un 186
Bos -8

Not sure what I'll do here. Don't like laying 18', of course, and not sure "where" physically/mentally Orl is as a team - they had last night off but not due to schedule, but due to cancellation cuz MSG is falling apart. Did they go to NY? If so, did they party in NY on an off night? Did they get stuck at the airport waiting for a rescheduled flight home (a situation I look to exploit by playing against teams in that spot)? I don't know. Better to lay off this one. As for Mil, they have appeared in this spot once already, albeit at home, and they cost me - they were the 0-3 game on 10/30. Will chart all games but I'm taking the night off - no plays.
Good luck with your play today . . .
SP

You don't HAVE to bet every night.

Last night, 2 of 3 won in Orlando game.

In Boston, the Celtics had a 6 point lead with under 30 seconds, looked like a W for team total and game, maybe even a 3-0 sweep, then Boston played like THEY were the team that was behind and fouled on 2 straight possessions, and Mil hits their last shot to send the game into OT. Two W's becomes 3 L's and Milw is now responsible for 6 losses in this system.
Like I said in post above - a good night to take off.

Play chart: 8-10 Tm totals 3-3; Game totals 2-4; Sides 3-3,
My record: 6-6

One spot tonight:
Ok Un 94'
Ok/Port Un 194
Port -5

I bought all three.
Small data sample still as the season just started, but on sides we've had 2 Favs who were off the previous night, like Port is tonight, both won, I like Port tonight. Within this chart I track about a dozen sub-categories, reason being, a few weeks into the season we'll see where edges are and play accordingly.

Good luck with your play today . . .

Slim pickins for plays, 6 days since anything qualified, might be a good thing as the year has not started off on a winning note.
Dropped all three last time in, play record is 8-13, 3-4 team, 2-5 game, 3-4 side. My record is 6-9.
Hopefully, things will average back up, and when the second play I chart/play begins to kick in (next week or the week after we should start to see some plays) we'll get back on track.
Two games fit parameters tonight:

NY Un 111'
GS/NY Un 220
GS +3'

Minn Un 102
Min/Sac Un 213
Sac -9'

I don't trust NY/D'Antoni, never know who is going to show up, the team that scores 120 or the guys that shoot 38% and score 83. No play.
I'll buy the three Minn spots.

Good luck with your play today.

Port +2, buy now as it's dropping, back with more plays/info/records . . .

Got the 2 but will grade this one as 1', despite the buy notice most 2's were gone.

Last time in, good call on laying off NY game as 2 of 3 lost, good call on using Minn game as we won 2 of 3.

Overall record for this play now at 11-16, my record at 8-10.
One game fits tonight:
Mem Un 96'
Port/Mem Un 192'
Port +1'

I'll stay off the totals, don't like the #'s when matched against averages in various situations.
Besides, in the next 7-10 days plays enough data should be accumulated so that the other play I use, the stronger one, starts kicking out some games to play. I'll play tight until then since this system has not started out as strong as in past years.
Good luck with your play today . . .

Just grabbed OK/Bos Un 198, line is dropping so I wanted post a notice now, back with info on play about 20 minutes.

UPDATE: Last time in, good call on laying off totals as Mem hit a prayer shot 3 at buzzer to put their team total Over, game was already Over, only play bought was Port and that won. 9-10 now at CM.

Today I get the first game that qualifies for my fav play (info/record in top post) but I don't like it for a # of reasons.
The spot is OK/Bos Un. It opened at 201, dropped and avg'd out around 197, then rose again to 199; in the last 15 minutes it has started dropping, two 198's left out there at top books, but low # is now 195'; haven't checked wires yet but maybe someone is out.

The books have not adjusted properly to OK, 10 of their 11 have sailed over, by approx avg (quick calculator in my head) of about 20 points. That is a lot to be off by on a 10 game sample.
Plus, we have Boston at 4-1 Over at home.
I don't mind stats going against my play, in fact I like it in many situations and it is why I buy a game, but #'s haven't even been close on OK and if you avg. out scores for and against with these two, the posted total is too low again. Don't like it, but first spot of the season, I'll ride with what has worked for me in the past, one play for me today, noted above.

Good luck with your play today . . .

With 95 points at the half last night it was looking good for Un 198 because OK/Bos hit 57% and 55%, and you knew that # would go down in the second half. First game of the season in my best spot banks one and gets me back to .500; now it's time to work to get back the unit of juice lost and start building a profit.
Records: Team/Game/Side spot: 12-18; Ov/Un 1-0; my plays 10-10.
Only one play fits today:
Mil team Under, OK/Mil Under and OK City.
Lines not out yet, but no matter - of the 18 losses in this play, SIX have come because of Milwaukee.
Buy it/fade it if you want but no play for me.
Good luck with your play today . . .

Good week last week in NCAA and NBA.
I work in "windows" - my week starts Monday, ends Sunday. Bookies like you to end your week on Monday, and use that as your cutoff day. Know why? Cuz most players lose and they want them to use lone Monday game in football as a bailout.

All 3 listed plays win last time in, but I didn't play any of them.
Team/Game/Side 15-18 now, tm 5-6, gm 4-7, side 6-5. When the team we look to play on was rested, the side spot is 5-2, that's why I used Port for my last play; they were off, Memphis played the night before, record then was 4-2.
The other play I track, the Ov/Un spot is 1-0. (Un 1-0; Ov 0-0)

Tonight, we have a few to choose from but again I don't like any of them:
GS Un 108
Den/GS Un 218
Den -2
Sac Un 93
Sac/Utah Un 197'
Utah -10'
And in the other play we have Den/GS Ov 218. (As in my NCAA totals, Under's are stronger.)
Good luck with your play today.
Plays conflict in Den game, so no play there. Looking at avg's 218 is way too high, Den seems to have no chemistry and GS looked putrid last night.
Going to look at these a little longer, will update if I buy anything.

Good week last week in NCAA and NBA.
I work in "windows" - my week starts Monday, ends Sunday. Bookies like you to your week end on Monday, and use that as your cutoff day. Know why? Cuz most players lose and they want them to use lone Monday game in football as a bailout, hoping newbies and knuckleheads double down.

All 3 listed plays won last time in, but I didn't play any of them (DOH!).

Team/Game/Side 15-18 now, tm 5-6, gm 4-7, side 6-5.
When the team I look to play on was rested (like tonight's to games) the side spot is 5-2; that's why I used Port for my last play, they were off, Memphis played the night before, record then was 4-2.

The other play I track, the Ov/Un spot is 1-0. (Un 1-0; Ov 0-0)

Tonight, we have a few to choose from but again I don't like any of them:
GS Un 108
Den/GS Un 218
Den -2
Sac Un 93
Sac/Utah Un 198
Utah -10'
And in the other play we have Den/GS Ov 218. (As in my NCAA football totals, Under's are stronger.)

Plays conflict in Den game, so no play there. Looking at avg's 218 is way too high, Den seems to have no chemistry and GS looked putrid in LA last night (as they do most nights.)
Going to look at these a little longer, will update if I buy anything.

Good luck with your play today . . .

And just like that the tm/gm/side play gets back in black off a 6-0 night, 9-0 run, of which I cashed NOTHING!!!
Because it only has a 1 year history, and this year started badly, I played tight the last two weeks and missed out.
I can't 2nd guess laying off the Under in GS as it conflicted with my other play, but then again, the other play is, like my NCAA, based on Unders; ignoring an Over should not have required deep thinking. Plus, I posted that 218 was way too high; odds makers seem to think this is the Nuggets of last year and the Baron Davis led Warriors. The game closed 220, and was Under by a solid 25.

Team/Game/Side 21-18 now overall, breakdown is team total 7-6, game total 6-7, side 8-5.

Yesterday's post stated "When the team I look to play on was rested (like tonight's two games) the side spot is 5-2; make it 7-2 now. (And why didn't I buy either??!! I post in the AM, and sometimes buy something later in the evening but don't post it, last night I didn't even do that. DOH!)
The other play, Over/Under, lost. 1-1 now, Un 1-0, Ov 0-1. And I'm still at 10-10.

Anyway . . . having fun.

Tonight one game fits:
Atl Un 96
Atl./NJ Un 190
NJ +3

NJ was off last night, putting them in that 7-2 spot, but checking the log book I see that all 7 W's were Favs, dogs are just 1-1 (the loser was Philly @ home on 10-27.)
Will lay off the side (Atl is 5-1 on the road and NJ, well . . . NJ sux) and game total. Will play the NJ team total, but waiting for more outs to put up their #'s.

Good luck with your play today . . .

Needed Atl Under 97 last night, Q4 buzzer sounds, and . . . Atl has 93 points on the board.
Yay team! Right?
WRONG!!!
NJ had 93, too.
Screwed in OT, which is less painful if your season already has a W from an Over you bought that was Under at the end of regulation BUT I DON'T!

Anyway . . .

tm/gm/side record now 22-20; team 7-7*, game, 6-8*, side 9-5. (Worth noting: when the team I play ON was off last night the side is now 8-2, THAT'S the reason I chart the main play even if overall #'s aren't terrific - there are subsets within that have great payouts.)

Ov/Un 1-1, Un 1-0, Ov 0-1
My record is 10-11
A few spots to look at tonight in the Ov/Un thing:
Mil/Cle Ov 186
GS/Hou Ov 215
Unfortunately, neither is the spot that is the reason I chart/buy this profile, the Under. And the odds makers still don't seem to realize this is not GS of past seasons. They hang a 215 on that game; only 4 of the Warrior's 14 games have hit that number.
I will buy the Mil game.

Also will buy Dal Un 96' and OK City, as well as NO Ov 95.
The Dal/OK City play is a side chart I have been keeping, not a lot of data but team Unders are 3-1, game Unders are 4-0 and side plays are 3-1.
The NO spot I like is from the other new play I have been working on, 16-12 overall, Overs are 9-7, Unders are 7-5, not pretty but within those numbers there are a few spots that might hit decent win %'s so I bought this one tonight.

So, four plays, three I will buy now, except the OK City play; it's at 4' most shops right now, I'll monitor that and see if I can get rid of the hook.
Good luck with your play today . . .

(And as I finish editing this post the screen is lighting up, 4 is now the common # on OK.)

Nine straight winners listed, I play none of them,
I jump in and get . . . 4 losers.
Yeah, didn't see that one coming.
All around ugly week, worst of 2010, lost NBA and NCAA football.
Back to work.
Record updates:
Team/Game/Side: 24-24; team total 7-8, game total 6-9, side 10-5.
Over/Under: 1-3; Un 1-0, Ov 0-3.
My record now 10-15.

At 5 games under .500 I need to play only high % spots, or, need plays that have paid in the past to start performing better.

One spot today:
Mil/Utah Ov 188

I will buy it, but # is dropping so will wait to buy.

Also, I have a Q1 play, based on a rd team after a Q4 meltdown at home the previous night, that had 4-5 years of success, then crapped out two seasons back, 4-3 last year; (incomplete chart for 09/10.)
2010/11:
10/30 Charl at Mil W
11/10 NJ at Chi -1' W
11/17 Hou at OK -2 W
11/20 Dal at Atl -2 L
11/29 NO at OK

NO, Q1, in game 2 of B2B this season, 2W 1L:
17-24 at SA (Home-Away)
23-18 at Mil (Hm-Aw)
37-33 at LAC (Aw-Aw)

OK, Q1, in game 2 of B2B this season 2W 1L:
29-23 at Port (Aw-Aw)
27-33 at Utah (Hm-Aw)
26-19 at Milw (Aw-Aw)

NO 2-5-1 in Q1, Aw this year; OK 6-3 Q1 at Hm. Problem is . . . OK's L's came against top teams, like NO.
OK has won in this spot already (11/17)
Number not out yet but should be -1/2 or -1. I'll buy it.

Good luck with your play today . . .

OK, got two back last time hitting with Mil/Utah Over & OK -1 in Q1.
Tm/gm/side now 23-22, team Un 7-8, game Un 6-9, side 10-5.
Ov/Un now 2-3, Unders 1-0, Overs 1-3.
I'm at 12-15.

Full card today and I only get one game that fits:
Port Un 90
Port/Bos Un 186'
Bos -7

Celtics played last night, so we don't get the 8-2 spot from the play on the sides. Port hasn't been in this spot yet this year. Boston was the play "On" team once, all three plays lost; went into OT or the game Under would have won, team total lost as Mil had 90 and # was 89.

Sitting under .500 I have to be select, don't like any of these. May buy the team total though, will update if I do.

Good luck with your play today . . .