Laying off was the right move as Boston blew the lead, folded late in Q4, outscored 15-4 final 5 + minutes (extrapolated, that would avg. to approx. 10 point quarter; way to be at home, fellas.) All 3 spots lost.
Slow week for plays. I checked LY's charts, see that Dec was a busy month for the Ov/Un spot, hopefully we'll get a couple of Unders to use this December. Got an Over in it, today.
Ov/Un 2-3, 1-0 Un, 1-2 Overs.
Hou/Chi Ov 200
Three houses just dropped to -200, I will buy this play, will watch and see if I can get under that #. I like the PF/PA stats here, especially when you factor in the B2B (back-to-back) #'s, as both teams' avg's go up.
OK, we hit that one, got an OT and didn't need it as the game sailed over by 18 points at the end of regulation.
*Note for future use: gm 2 of B2B Chi games avg +16 over avg score all games and Hou is +10.
Records updated:
tm/gm/side combined 23-25; team total 8-8, game total 6-10, side 10-6.
Ov/Un 3-3, Un 1-0, Ov 2-3
My play 13-15
Though I play math edges, I also look for emotion/distraction edges, and missed a solid one yesterday, the Cavs HAD to be down, emotion-wise and confidence-wise after losing to Lebron the night b4; missed banking an easy winner playing against them last night, wasn't paying attention.
One spot today:
Cavs Un 94
Cavs/Pistons Un 193'
Det -5
Can it get any uglier than having to use the Pistons and lay points?
Still, they were off yesterday, and chart shows teams in this play (the side) are 7-3 (That's a correction from previous posted numbers; I missed a loss.)
This is ugly all the way around, think I'll just chart it; no plays.
I am using Atl -3 flat in NFL, rare NFL play for me.
Good luck with your play today.
Listed plays missed a 3-0 sweep by a hook as the game went Over; team total and side won; NO MORE thinking on those sides, when the play ON team was off the night before I'm buying it as they move to 8-4 now.
I didn't use any of them, playing the NFL game listed instead and Atlanta came home a winner. I don't do a lot of NFL. It's my fav to wager and watch but I just don't have the math edges I have in others. The Atl spot (play AGAINST TB actually) is 3-0 now as NYJ 10/31 & Det 11/14 were in the TB spot also this season. If another pops up I'll post it.
Records updated:
tm/gm/side combined 25-26; team total 9-8, game total 6-11, side 11-6.
Ov/Un 3-3, Un 1-0, Ov 2-3
My play 13-15 (NBA only; not putting the NFL win in here)
Good news/bad news time:
Good - three spots active today.
Good - all in the play I like better/stronger history (Ov/Un as opposed to team/game/side)
Bad - none are Unders, which are the best spots
Bad - I don't like any of them as the avg's (PF & PA) all are against the play and all three lines seem to be about 3-5 points higher than they should be.
Den/Char Ov 202
Det/Hou Ov 200'
GS/Dal Ov 205
All three #'s are hideous, when you loom at avg's and factor in Home/Away.
I will play them all, but monitor numbers and hope at least some of them drop.
Good luck with your play today . . .
PS - Been charting another play, think I listed last one here, FYI if anyone is looking at NJ/Atl. Play would be (I'm not buying, just tracking and FYI)
Atl Un 96
NJ/Atl Un 186
NJ +6'
Record in '10 is team 3-2, game 4-1, side 3-2.
Grabbed the first two Ov/Un's as the #'s started to rise, still watching GS/Dal.
Looked at NJ/Atl a little closer, like the avg's (NJ about a 14 drop off in PPG when in gm 2 of b2b, and both games in AW-HM, like tonight, have stayed Un) so I bought all three plays there, also.
Second ugly night of the season at 0-5, and if GS/Dal don't put up a 60 pt Q4 it could have been 0-6.
Here's a thought: next time I say "all three #'s are hideous, when you look at avg's and factor in Home/Away" how about I don't play them?
Had NJ/Atl Un 186, with a little over 5 minutes left in 1st half it's NJ up 40-34.
That's 74 points, factor in avg half quarter for final five minutes and I'm feeling real good. Check the ticker, score at the half: Atl, 60-47. 60!! Has to be a mistake, can't score 26 in 5 minutes, that's a quarter of 52!!
Go to box score, and, Atl shot 100% in final 5 minutes; 7-7 FG, 2-2 three pt range, 6-6 FT's. Ugh . . .
So I go from two games under .500 to seven. You have to look at your play and see what you're doing wrong; let's do that.
I use four basic systems (hate that word) and almost all games have been listed here.
team/game/side (record 25-26)
Ov/Un (3-5)
Q4 meltdown (4-1)
and the variation of tm/gm/side that I noted in the PS in yesterday's post (10-8.)
Combined, 42-40. So, though the systems are under-performing I'm making things worse by picking spots rather than playing them all; overall they're +2, I'm -7 (plus 2 units juice) at 13-20. Nice job, douchenozzle.
One play today, and I'm on it. From Ov/Un spot (3-5 overall; 2-5 on Overs):
Det/NO Ov 185'
Goood luck with your play today,
SP
Heading towards being down double digits in record after a loss with my last play; 13-21, differential of 8. One spot tonight, don't like it as Toronto has one of the worst D's in the league, but stats show if I play every spot I am better off than picking and choosing.
Overall for this play 25-26, team 8-9, game 6-11, side 11-6.
Today's spot:
Det Un 101'
Game Un 201
Tor +2
Will buy all three, but early moves in our favor, hopefully will keep going in that direction so I'll wait, watch, and buy later.
Also, the NFL spot I mentioned first on 12/5 post here, and noted all plays in 12/7 post above, is in play this week, fourth time this season, posting today in case I have no NBA to post tomorrow. Buy today if you like the spot because the number will be worse tomorrow, Oak +4.
Good luck with your play today, and mine, I could use a little in NBA . . .
Overall NBA has sucked, but it's early. There are some good stats within the plays, for instance, in the one profile, sides are 12-6, that's 67%; (the W % is even higher when the bet-on team was off the previous night, 8-3, 72%.
On the other hand, full game totals in that play are 6-12; they are under performing and due to pick up.
OK, only one game away from a differential of 10 now as 2 of last 3 lost. Toronto proved my point about having one of the worst D's in the league, giving up a FORTY-THREE point quarter to one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Season either starts to turn around or I am going deeper in the hole tonight.
Team/game/side: 26-28; team 8-10, game 6-12, side 12-6.
Ov/Un: 3-6, Un 1-0, Ov 2-6
Me:14-23
Tonight, 6 plays, all in the tm/gm/side spot:
Port Un 93
Port/Mem Un 188'
Mem -3
NO Un 87'
NO/Mia Un 186'
Mia -11
Buying all 6 plays. Already bought Miami as it's going up (and too high to start with, no? Too much respect to a hot Miami team, NO doesn't suck. Total looks low, too.) Waiting/watching the other games, some houses still don't have team totals up yet.
Good luck with your play tonight . . .
Anyone know the current record for when the play ON team was off the night before? (in the team/game/side spot)?
OK, good day last time in, hit six on Monday (went from 9 under .500 and 1 away from a double digit deficit to 3 under) but no games have qualified since. But when it rains it pours - 10 today, nine from the team/game/side play and one from Q4 meltdown spot. Play record updates first:
team/game/side: 32-28; tm 10-10, gm 8-12, side 14-6.
Ov/Un 3-6: Un 1-0, Ov 2-6;
Q4 meltdown: 4-1 (I think the only one posted here was the last spot, used for a W on 11/29 with NO.)
Me: 20-23
Today:
Phil Un 90'
Phil/Orl Un 189'
Orl -9
Utah Un 93'
Utah/Mil UN 189'
Mil -2
Mem Un 94
Mem/SA Un 198
SA -10
Orl -x Q1
Don't like Utah/Mil, Phil qualifies for two profiles, good if they play as expected, bad if the have a good game because they can wipe out four plays, not something I like to do. Still, picking spots has been poor, playing all would be profitable on the season so that's what I'm doing today.
The number on Orl in the first quarter is not out yet, should be -3, waiting on that and for more houses to put up team totals.
Good luck with your play today, and mine, gonna need it with ten out, plus the bowl plays . . .
A wonderful day last time in, gave back all the plays won on Monday.
After a 6-0 start to the week I thought maybe I could get a run going, then Tuesday - no plays. Same thing on Wed, Thur and Friday. By Saturday I'm thinking, "If I was hot, I have to be cold by now, five days later, but . . ."
And, a 2-8 Saturday. Trouble started with very first play, Orl -2 in first quarter; they win it by one, I lose by one, thanks to not-so-Superman missing THREE free throws.
WTF - kryptonite on the ball?
Best spot lost all three, "play on" team in team/game/side spot was 10-3 when they were off the previous day, now 10-6.
Records:
team/game/side: 34-35; tm 10-13, gm 10-13, side 14-9.
Ov/Un 3-6: Un 1-0, Ov 2-6;
Q4 meltdown: 4-2
Me: 22-31
One spot today:
Ind Un 97
NO/Ind Un 191'
NO +3'
Both teams played yesterday; combined 10-0 to the Under when playing game 2 of B2B. I do not like jumping on streaks - "The pendulum may tilt one way or the other but eventually it always evens out."
Posted for info only, at 1 game away from being down double digits on my record I will wait for a better spot.
No plays for me today.
Last week I said "picking spots has me in the minus, if I played all spots I would be profitable, so that's what I'll do." But after a lousy Saturday I don't buy yesterday's spots and . . . they go 3-0.
How does 18-0 sound to you?
When you're down for the season, work harder! That's what I did last night and found the 18-0 spot in the team/game/side play.
Is there logic to the 18-0? I don't know, let's look at it:
Everyone agrees home court is an advantage. Part of the reason is because the team feeds off the energy from the crowd. If you attend a lot of games you know that the energy level (and attendance) is higher on Friday than on Monday. Most people hate Mondays, the world is more churlish; everybody loves Friday, pay day for many, the weekend is here, everyone is "up."
So, doesn't it stand to reason that the home crowd edge is sharper on Friday night? And for the visitors as well as home team? Playing before a dead audience does no performer any favor, local or from out of town.
I'm not stating any of this as fact, merely thinking out loud.
The team/game/side is based on isolating teams that may play a lousy game for a second straight night, and looking for a low scoring Under. Stands to reason if Mondays are as noted above, then these plays would have a higher W % on a Monday than say a Friday or Saturday weekend night crowd.
Team/game/side record on Monday: 18-0.
Team/game/side record on Saturday 8-16 (a 67% fade)
No plays on Fridays so far this year.
Every spot in this play is in this thread, look at the ones dated Monday and you'll see the 18-0.
Coincidence? Decide for yourself.
Me, I'm pulling last years charts to check out more data.
Records:
tm/gm/side 37-35; tm 11-13, gm 11-13 side 15-9
Ov/Un 3-6; Un 1-0, Ov 2-6;
Q4 meltdown 4-2
Me 22-31
One play active today:
Orl Un 97
Dal/Orl Un 190'
Dal +3'
I bought all three.
Tuesday record for this play is 2-4; 2 of the losses were a win at the end of regulation, lost in OT.
Orlando is 0-0, no plays in this spot this year; Dallas either.
Good luck with your play today . . .
Looked like a good shot at 3-0 at the end of 3 Q's but game sailed Over and Orl hit a 3 pointer with 26 seconds left to send the team total over; 1-2 NBA, hit my NCAA b-ball, no bowl play, so 2-2 night, but I reach DD deficit in NBA; not good.
Did research on LY's record by day, found what I thought I would, no correlation to back up Monday play this season.
LY Mon 7-8; Sat 30-12. Only 15 Monday plays all season LY, already 18 this year, not sure why.
Records:
tm/gm/side 38-37; tm 11-14, gm 11-14 side 16-9
Ov/Un 3-6; Un 1-0, Ov 2-6;
Q4 meltdown 4-2
Me 23-33
One play today:
Phil Un 91
Phil/Bos Un 191'
Bos -10
Phil has been in this spot once, 12/19, team went Over, game stayed Under, play "on" team (Orlando) lost.
Boston has been the "play "on" team twice and in those games the team and game totals went Over and Boston lost both ATS. In both spots they played a game the night before, tonight they are on 2 days rest.
Picking when and when not to play has me at 1-2 for the week instead of 4-2 had I played all spots. This one has trouble written all over it, 12/9 meeting in Phil saw a total of 188 and they scored 203. Three of last four meetings have gone over this #, 191', confirming my belief that the total is too low. As for the side, Bos -10, L3Y record for them in this range is a horrendous 8-22. AND they are only 1-5 ATS vs. their division this year.
Fawk it, I'm fading, taking team and game Over and Philly plus the points.
SOLID week at NBA handicapping behind me at 6-3.
Sukazz week of NBA wagering behind me at 2-4, as I fade the plays last time in on 12/22, they go 2-1, I go 1-2.
I keep saying "stop choosing spots and just play them all and you'd be doing fine" then I don't follow my own advice. Playin like an amateur.
Records:
tm/gm/side 40-38; tm 12-14, gm 12-14 side 16-10
Ov/Un 3-6; Un 1-0, Ov 2-6;
Q4 meltdown 4-2
Me 24-35
One spot today, from Ov/Un spot, and I bought it:
Atl/NO Over 184
Good luck with your play today.
With a 27-25 52 point Q1 it looked like the game was on it's way to an easy Over. A 49 pt. Q2 had us at 101, needing a paltry 83 pt 2nd half. Even after Atlanta put up a dismal 16 pt Q3, no worries, only needed 39 in Q to not lose, 40 to win; NBA teams avg. 24 per Q, so it should have been easy; Q4? 15-19 - LOSER! It's been that kind of a season thus far . . .
Records:
tm/gm/side 40-38; tm 12-14, gm 12-14 side 16-10
Ov/Un 3-7; Un 1-0, Ov 2-7;
Q4 meltdown 4-2
Me 24-36
Today, a bunch of plays qualify:
tm/gm/side:
Wash Un 97'
Wash/Hou Un 204'
Hou -9'
Ov/Un:
Det/Char Ov 192'
Dal/Oak Un 203;
Atl/Mil Ov 179'
Wash/Hou Ov 204'
Wash/Hou game totals cancel each other out, as it qualifies as an Under in tm/gm/side profile but also as Over in the Ov/Un spot; this sux cause it's Monday, and tm/gm/side is a perfect 18-0, I was looking forward to playing it; I will buy Houston -9' though, laying off game and team total.
Will also buy the other three spots in Ov/Un. The # in Det/Char sux, based on avg.PF/PA combinations but I'm on it anyway, as well as Dal and Atl game (fukin Hawks owe me one from yesterday.)
Good luck with your play today (and mine, I need it . . .)
Split yesterday, 2-2, normally I don't mind a split but I'm in a hole, got work to do, and need to start banking a few.
Had no right to win Dallas Un 203, they were at a 220+ clip at the half, saved by a 12 pt Q4 by Ok City; but, it was give and take as I should have won Atlanta, needed just 35 pts in Q4, that's a good quarter for a single team, but Atl hangs an 18 and Bucks do 'em one better with a 13.
And of course, in keeping with not playing spots that win, Wash team total and game both stayed Under; the only one in that system that lost is the one I took, Hou -9 missed by a bucket.
But . . . Team/game/side profile on Mondays moves to a record of 20-1.
Records:
tm/gm/side 42-39; tm 13-14, gm 13-14 side 16-11.
Ov/Un 5-9; Un 2-0, Ov 3-9;
Q4 meltdown 4-2
Me 26-38
One spot today:
Mil Un 85
Mil/Chi Un 179'
Chi -8'
Mil is 4-8 in this spot, but one game went into OT; team total lost anyway, game total would have won.
Let's look at some numbers in this one: Mil games avg. 183; Chi games avg. 195; Chi D vs Mil O is 186; Chi O vs Mil D is 192; EVERY one is higher than today's game total! And, when Mil plays game 2 of B2B their avg PPG is 4 pts higher than standard PPG.
And . . . Mil is 4-3 SU in game 2 of B2B, 5-2 ATS, with W's at Lakers and an OT loss at Boston; looks more like a fade then play spot, but I lay off, they win, I play, they lose. Don't like this one at all - I'm off. No plays.