ATS Report - Good & Bad
By Michael Black
VegasInsider.com
A month has passed on the young NBA season and we’ll take a look at a few surprises and disappointments so far. More importantly, we’ll identify clubs that have been good and bad against the spread (ATS) as well.
Flying Under the Radar
Minnesota Timberwolves (11-7 ATS)
Don’t let their 8-10 record fool you, these guys are young and hungry and they’ve been dealing with a Michael Beasley injury. Kevin Love might be the best shooting forward in the league and rookie point guard Ricky Rubio is proving all his doubters wrong. Rubio is averaging 11 points and 9 assists a game, and the kid is still adjusting to the tempo of the NBA. Kevin Love has been on fire, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 boards a game. Minnesota has had impressive wins this year over the Spurs, at LA Clippers, and two victories against the defending champions Dallas Mavericks. With Rick Adelman coming in as head coach, this team could easily grow as the season progresses and they could make a run at a playoff spot, just give them some time and look out for these Wolves. Keep an eye on Minnesota when on the road (6-2 ATS).
Denver Nuggets (13-5 ATS)
Maybe not flying as low as Minnesota, but these Nuggets are for real and they can hang with anybody in the league. After Carmelo Anthony left for Broadway last season a lot of bettors wrote off Denver. Too bad for them! It’s an example of a classic knee jerk reaction by the public to fade a team losing a star player. Denver went on a TEAR, going 18-7 overall and 20-4-1 ATS for the remainder of the season. They’ve picked right where they left off last year, going 13-5 overall and ATS. The trade could have been Carmelo for Danilo Gallinari straight up and Denver still got the better deal by freeing up cap space. The Nuggets got rid of everyone else in that trade except for center Timofey Mozgov, they knew where the talent was. I don’t know how head coach George Karl does it but he’s always got a team that can compete with the best of them so don’t make the mistake of undervaluing this Denver team. The Nuggets own the best ATS record (8-2) on the road this sesaon
Disappointments
New York Knicks (4-14 ATS)
Disappointment could be an understatement for the New York Knicks this year. They have, despite their 7-11 record, literally two wins this year, Boston in their home opener and a six-point home win over Philadelphia. Other than that, they have beat absolute nobodies and they’ve suffered losses to some of the bottom feeders of the league in Cleveland, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Charlotte, Golden State and Toronto. I thought it was interesting in comparing what the Nuggets and Knicks have both done since the Carmelo trade: Denver has gone 33-9-1 ATS compared to the Knicks going 17-29 ATS. Last year Denver went 20-4-1 ATS matched to Knicks going 13-15 ATS. This team looks lost and they’re struggling to find their identity.
For the first time ever a Mike D’Antoni team looks boring to watch and his seat has got be getting pretty hot at Madison Square Garden. You know the impatience of New Yorkers and they’re not gonna casually sit by and watch this Knicks team become a dumpster fire. Amare Stoudemire has been in trade rumors now for Orlando’s Dwight Howard and this Carmelo experiment hasn’t been longer than a year and you can already hear the rumblings for change. With Boston down and the possible dismembering of the Orlando Magic, New Yorkers had high hopes for their squad this year. As of right now, they’re a laughing stock and if they don’t quickly turn things around you know it’s only a matter of time before we see some more changes to this Knicks team. Fading New York (1-8 ATS) at MSG has been golden this season.
Los Angeles Lakers (8-11 ATS)
While not nearly as disappointing as the Knicks, the Lakers have looked old and slow to start the year. Everyone questioned the hiring of former Cleveland coach Mike Brown when Phil Jackson stepped down. “Flo” from the Bingo hall would be considered an elite coach if she had LeBron James playing for her. The verdict is still out on Brown. The problem with the Lakers is All-Star Kobe Bryant is no longer as dominate as LeBron and he simply can’t carry the weight of the team as he’s done in the past. The Lakers know they missed out BIG on point guard Chris Paul and the Dwight Howard rumors have gone away. Until these guys pull the trigger on a BIG name I just don’t see them being of relevance this year. Despite beating their neighbor this past week, it’s safe to say they’re not even the best team in LA anymore. The Clippers have taken that title, and they’re young and only getting better. This Lakers team may have peaked a few years ago and I think they’ll continue to be a fade play this year, especially on the road (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS).