NBA Betting Review: Best and Worst Wagers at the Break
By Covers.com
With the NBA on the four-day hiatus in Houston, now seems like a great time to review the best and worst in NBA betting from the first half of the season.
Best ATS
Overall: Washington Wizards (31-18-2 ATS) – At 15-36 SU, the Wizards have played well enough to meet the oddmakers’ expectations and losing games by an average of just under four points a night.
Home: Denver Nuggets (17-8 ATS) – There is something to be said for the thin air at the Pepsi Center. Denver covered in four straight and six of its last seven at home before the break.
Road: New Orleans Hornets (19-10 ATS) – The soon-to-be Pelicans are a different team on the road, scoring an average of 96.6 points as visitors compared to a league-low 91 point per home game.
Worst ATS
Overall: Charlotte Bobcats (19-32-1 ATS) – The Bobcats are still at the bottom, losing games by an average of almost nine points. Combined with last season, Charlotte is 42-75-1 ATS in its last 118 games.
Home: Chicago Bulls (7-20 ATS) – Chicago has gone 15-12 SU inside the United Center but is averaging just under 92 points a night at home – second lowest home average in the league. No rush Derrick Rose.
Away: Boston Celtics (7-15-1 ATS) – The Celtics have stunk it up on the road, going just 8-15 SU including an embarrassing road loss at Charlotte Monday. Boston’s backcourt is getting dangerously thin.
Best over
Overall: Golden State Warriors (33-18-1 over/under) – The Warriors were one of the first-half surprises, thanks in part to their potent offense. Golden State can top the total in a hurry with a league-best 39.3 percent 3-point shooting.
Home: Dallas Mavericks (17-7-1 over/under) – The Mavs went into the break going 3-1 over/under for a four-game home stand and play three of four at home after the break.
Away: Golden State Warriors (19-10-0 over/under) – The Warriors defense – or lack thereof – has a much to do with these over paydays. Golden State is giving up 101.2 points per game on the year.
Best under
Overall: Indiana Pacers (21-31-1 over/under) – The Pacers finished under in both games before the break but looked to be pulling a 180 with a stretch of six overs in eight days, thanks to a brief uptick in offense.
Home: Phoenix Suns (7-18 over/under) – It seems bettors still think the Suns are a good over play, moving those home totals up just enough for the under to come crashing through.
Away: Washington Wizards (6-20-0 over/under) – Washington’s offense has a tough time getting off in opposing gyms, scoring just 86.8 points per road game compared to 96 points per home game.
NBA Toughest and Easiest Schedules Out of the Break
By Covers.com
Let’s have a look at three NBA teams with generous schedules and three squads dreading their stretch run after the All-Star break:
Teams that should finish strong
Denver Nuggets (33-21 SU, 32-22 ATS, 33-21 O/U)
The Nuggets have been a good bet to this point and there’s no reason to think that will change after the break. Denver has a 22-3 (17-8 ATS) record at home and is one of the best over plays in the Association. The Nuggets will play 16 of their final 28 games at Pepsi Center, where they average 109.2 points per contest. Denver has already played the bulk of its road games and won’t be away from home for more than a two-game stretch at a time for the remainder of the season.
Golden State Warriors (30-22 SU, 27-24-1 ATS, 33-18-1 O/U)
Much like the Nuggets, the Warriors have played a ton of road games early on. Golden State has posted an impressive 16-7 home record (13-10 ATS) and also held its own on the road early on with a 14-15 (14-14-1 ATS) mark. But what bettors really love about the Warriors is their tendency to play over totals. Golden State will be in a perfect position to close out the season strong, as only six of its final 22 games will be played away from Oracle Arena.
San Antonio Spurs (42-12 SU, 30-22-2 ATS, 25-28-1 O/U)
The Spurs limped into the break as Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are dealing with various injuries. The All-Star festivities break up a grueling nine-game road trip for San Antonio, which picks back up in Sacramento on Tuesday. It’s clear sailing for the Spurs after that, with 17 of their final 24 contests to be played at the friendly confines of the AT&T Center. Perhaps no team will benefit more from the comforts of home during the final stretch than the aging Spurs.
Teams that are dreading the stretch run
Boston Celtics (28-24 SU, 21-28-3 ATS, 25-26-1 O/U)
Sure, the Celtics went on a seven-game ATS tear after Rajon Rondo went down with a season-ending ACL injury, but reality should settle in for Boston after the break. The Celtics failed to cover in their final two games before All-Star Weekend and now Paul Pierce is dealing with a pinched nerve in his neck. Boston has only played 23 road games to this point, and will playing a ton of games away from Beantown. The Celtics have been a fade on the road, posting a 7-15-1 ATS record.
Philadelphia 76ers (22-29 SU, 24-27 ATS, 24-25-2 O/U)
NBA schedule-makers were not kind to the Sixers this year. Philadelphia was bombarded with road games to start the campaign and just wrapped up a stretch where it played 12 of 14 games at Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers will once again be banished to the road to close out the season. Philly finishes with a daunting stretch that sees it play 12 of its final 16 games away from the City of Brotherly Love, but that doesn’t mean bettors should shy away from the Sixers, who have been a good under bet (6-14-2 O/U) on the road to date.
Memphis Grizzlies (33-18 SU, 29-21-1 ATS, 21-29-1 O/U)
The team dynamic of the Grizzlies has changed since the departure of Rudy Gay. Bettors were turning a huge profit on defense-happy Memphis prior to the deal, but now the Grizzlies are having trouble stopping opponents from scoring. Memphis is allowing opponents to score 94.7 points in seven games since the deal –roughly five points more than its season average. The usual under-lock Grizzlies have played over the number in six of those seven contests. Memphis has played a league-low 22 road affairs to this point and doesn’t play more than two consecutive home games down the stretch.
Second-Half Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
With the NBA taking a time out for the All-Star break, there is no better time than the present to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the 2013 playoffs is about to take off.
Here’s a quick look at the very best and the very worst pointspread records to date this season on every team in games played this season through the All-Star break. In addition, I also present a noteworthy most recent trend on each team.
All results are SU (Straight Up), ATS (Against the Spread) or O/U (Over Under in exact sequence), unless stated otherwise.
ATLANTA
Best: 3-0 ATS dogs 7 or more
Worst: 0-8 ATS off ATS win 13 or more
Trending: Hawks struggling with good teams off a spread loss, going 0-7 SU/ATS
BOSTON
Best: 4-0-1 ATS in double no rest games
Worst: 0-7 SU/ATS off loss 13 or more points
Trending: Celtics playing down to the level of opponents, going 1-7 ATS versus sub .250 opposition
BROOKLYN
Best: 7-1-1 ATS as favorites off back-to-back wins
Worst: 0-5 ATS home versus foe off double-digit win
Trending: Nets having trouble in games off one loss-exact, going 2-9 ATS
CHARLOTTE
Best: 3-0 ATS off SU favorite loss
Worst: 1-9 ATS away versus foe off SU/ATS loss
Trending: Bobcats have played UNDER in all 10 games as dogs of 11 or more points
CHICAGO
Best: 5-1 ATS away in division games
Worst: 0-11 ATS with no rest off a SU/ATS win
Trending: Bulls have struggled laying more than 8 points, going 0-7 ATS
CLEVELAND
Best: 5-0 ATS as dogs of more than 10 points
Worst: 0-5 ATS as favorites versus non-rested opponents
Trending: Cavs struggle at home off road games, going 4-12 SU/ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS as favorites
DALLAS
Best: 5-0 ATS versus conference opponent off a SU dog win
Worst: 0-4 ATS off back-to-back losses, the last as a favorite
Trending: Mavs 17-8 ATS since return of Dirk Nowitzki to the lineup, including 14-3 ATS the last 17 games
DENVER
Best: 6-0 ATS home off back-to-back wins
Worst: 0-4 ATS with revenge versus non-conference opponents
Trending: Nuggets have struck gold at home against conference foes, going 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS
DETROIT
Best: 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses
Worst: 1-5 ATS home off a win versus an opponent off a loss
Trending: Pistons misfiring as dogs of more then 8 points, going 1-6 ATS
GOLDEN STATE
Best: 4-0 SU/ATS home versus opponent off double-digit loss
Worst: 0-6 ATS away off back-to-back SU/ATS wins
Trending: Warriors cleaning up against foes off SU dog wins, going 4-0 ATS as dogs and 4-0 ATS away
HOUSTON
Best: 13-1 ATS home versus opponent off loss
Worst: 1-10 ATS off loss versus opponent off SU/ATS win
Trending: After hitting a 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS wall in mid-January, Rockets closed 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in last 11 games into the break
INDIANA
Best: 7-0 ATS home off a division game
Worst: 0-4 ATS away versus greater than .666 opponents
Trending: Indiana has trouble keeping pace as dogs in games off back-to-back wins, going 1-7 ATS
L.A. CLIPPERS
Best: 5-1 ATS off a SU dog win
Worst: 0-5 ATS as favorites of 13 or more points
Trending: One is not enough for the Clippers, who are 7-1 SU/ATS in games off one win-exact
L.A. LAKERS
Best: 5-1 ATS as favorites in games off a double-digit loss
Worst: 0-5 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins
Trending: Once great Lakers dog log is howling at 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS when taking points in games off a loss
MEMPHIS
Best: 5-0-1 ATS off SU dog win
Worst: 0-3 SU/ATS off ATS loss 20 or more points
Trending: Sleepy Grizzles are dangerous, going 6-1-1 ATS with no rest
MIAMI
Best: 5-0 ATS off back-to- back SU/ATS wins versus foe off back-to-back SU/ATS losses
Worst: 1-7 ATS off division game
Trending: The defending champs shine at home, going 8-1 SU/ATS as favorites of less than 7 points and 7-1 SU/ATS versus greater than .667 opponents
MILWAUKEE
Best: 4-0 ATS favorites off a loss of 15 or more points
Worst: 0-9 ATS versus conference opponent off a win
Trending: Bucks are gracious hosts, going 1-8-1 ATS versus foes off a win
MINNESOTA
Best: 5-0 ATS versus opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS losses
Worst: 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS home versus opponent off a win
Trending: Wolves waltz in games with O/U total 196 or more, going 3-13 UNDER, including 0-6 UNDER if total 201 or more
NEW ORLEANS
Best: 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses
Worst: 0-3 ATS home versus opponent off SU favorite loss
Trending: Hornets stirred things up in final 21 games, going 12-9 SU and 15-6 ATS
NEW YORK
Best: 4-0 ATS as conference dogs
Worst: 1-5-1 ATS as road favorites versus opponent off SU/ATS loss
Trending: Knicks raise level of play depending on opposition, going 6-1 SU/ATS versus .750 or greater foes, including 4-0 ATS at home
OKLAHOMA CITY
Best: 9-1 ATS off a non-division loss
Worst: 1-6 ATS versus .333 or less opponent off back-to-back losses
Trending: Thunder playing up and down to the level of opposition, going 4-1-1 ATS versus greater than .750 foes and 0-6 ATS versus less than .285 opponents
ORLANDO
Best: 6-1 ATS as double-digits dogs
Worst: 1-9 ATS as favorites
Trending: Magic act disappeared after 12-13 start, going 3-24 SU and 9-18 ATS last 27 games
PHILADELPHIA
Best: 4-0 ATS away with 3 or more days of rest
Worst: 0-6 ATS with no rest versus opponent off SU/ATS loss
Trending: Sixers play according to level of opposition, going 8-3 SU/ATS versus sub .333 opponents and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS versus greater than .666 foes
PHOENIX
Best: 3-0-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins
Worst: 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS versus opponent off double-digit loss
Trending: Suns set against non-conference foes off a SU/ATS loss, going 1-8 ATS, including 0-6 ATS at home
PORTLAND
Best: 6-1 ATS versus opponent off SU favorite loss
Worst: 0-6 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins
Trending: Over/Under total dictates Blazers success, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in games in which the total is less than 192, and 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in games in which the total is 202 or higher
SACRAMENTO
Best: 4-0 ATS off division game versus opponent off a win
Worst: 1-7 ATS versus opponent off a SU favorite loss
Trending: Kings get crowned in matchups of both teams playing off SU/ATS losses, going 0-6 ATS at home
SAN ANTONIO
Best: 5-0 ATS versus opponent off loss of 20 or more points
Worst: 1-6 ATS versus opponent off double-digit win
Trending: Spurs have struggled at both ends of the spectrum, going 1-5-1 ATS versus .250 or less opponents and 1-6 ATS versus greater than .666 opponents
TORONTO
Best: 8-1 ATS off a division game
Worst: 0-3 ATS home off a SU favorite loss
Trending: Raptors run well without rest, going 11-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS at home
UTAH
Best: 5-0 ATS as home dogs
Worst: 1-7-1 ATS away off back-to-back wins
Trending: Flip sides to Jazz records, going 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses and 0-6 ATS versus foe off back-to-back SU/ATS losses
WASHINGTON
Best: 8-1-1 ATS off a win versus opponent off a win
Worst: 1-4 ATS home versus non-division opponent off a double-digit loss
Trending: Wizards work magic in games against foes off an ATS win, going 14-4-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS the last eleven.
FYI: Teams that have responded exceptionally well in same season revenge affairs this season include the Thunder (5-1 SU/ATS) and the Heat (5-2 SU/ATS, including 4-1 ATS home), while the teams that have struggled mightily in these same payback situations include the Timberwolves (3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS, including 0-7 ATS versus an opponent off a win), the Magic (2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS).
This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Georgetown Hoyas are the hottest team in college hoops, winning seven in a row SU and ATS. Their most recent victory - a 62-55 road win over Cincinnati as 4-point underdogs – has Georgetown locked in a three-way tie with Syracuse and Marquette atop the Big East at 9-3 in conference play. The Hoyas already have a win over the Golden Eagles and can put some space between them and the Orange with a victory at Syracuse Saturday.
But before Georgetown invades the Carrier Dome, it hosts Big East bottom-feeder DePaul Wednesday. The Blue Demons, however, aren’t going to roll over. They recently snapped a nine-game losing skid and have covered in three straight outings. DePaul, which is 6-2 ATS on the road, covered at Georgetown last year and is 3-1 ATS in its last four versus the Hoyas.
Letdown spot
We caught the Philadelphia Flyers with their guard down at the start of the NHL season, coming off an intense home opener with the rival Penguins only to fall flat versus the Sabres the next night. History has a tendency to repeat itself, especially in compressed schedules like this year’s lockout-shortened slate which leaves little time for correction.
Philadelphia finds itself in a similar situation, visiting Pittsburgh Wednesday before returning home to host floundering Florida Thursday. The Flyers, who have a frantic schedule this week with three games in four nights, could be low on gas by the time they play the Panthers. That game is the first one back in Wells Fargo Arena after a six-game road trip.
Scheduling spot
The Boston Celtics needed the All-Star break more than any team in the league. Their aging roster is down three players – Rajon Rondo, Jared Sullinger, Leandro Barbosa – and star small forward Paul Pierce is nursing a pinched nerve in his neck. The Celtics went into the four-day layoff on a high note, winning eight of nine games (7-2 ATS) before the break, but face a daunting challenge starting Tuesday.
Boston opens the second half of the schedule on a five-game Western Conference swing, beginning in Denver Tuesday. The Celtics, who are a dismal 8-15 SU and 7-15-1 ATS on the road, then travel to Los Angeles (Lakers), Phoenix, Portland and Utah. In fact, Boston plays at home only twice in the next 11 contests – a span of nearly a month.