NBA Betting News and Notes

Wise Guy Report
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Every year, prior to the end of the regular season, I write a column I call ‘Who Has What it Takes to Win the Big Dance”. After Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Championship this year, we’ve seen future champions fit a specific statistical profile in 15 of the last 16 tournaments. As a result of that specific statistical profile, I can simply go through all the contending teams, one by one, to see which squad has the best chance (or one of the best chances) to cut down the nets following six consecutive victories over a three week span.

I do not go through a specific statistical profile that predicts NBA playoff success the same way I do for college. And while the NCAA Tournament is a relative sprint, the NBA Playoffs are an extended, two month long marathon; a war of attrition as much as anything else. A race towards a four series, 16 victory championship requires talent and health.

We don’t see longshots winning NBA titles very often. The biggest surprise teams to win a title in the last two decades – the 2004 Pistons and the 2011 Mavericks – were both deep, veteran, defensive minded squads. Coming off 54 and 57 win seasons respectively, each ranked as the #3 seed in their respective conferences at the start of the playoffs. These relative ‘longshots’ like those Detroit and Dallas teams didn’t come out of nowhere or from the back of the pack.

It’s also worth noting how important previous championship experience actually is. The Celtics won three titles in a five year span in the early to mid-80’s. The ‘Showtime’ Lakers won five titles during that same decade, including back-to-back titles in 1987 and 1988. The Bad Boy Pistons then won two straight titles. Then Michael Jordan’s Bulls won three championships in a row. The Houston Rockets followed with back-to-back titles, then three more for Jordan’s Bulls. The Lakers won three titles in a row with Shaq and Kobe. The Spurs won every title that the Lakers didn’t (except one) between 1999 and 2007. And the Lakers won another set of back-to-back titles in 2009 and 2010.

Teams that have reached the highest pinnacle in basketball know what it takes to get back there. When healthy (and not gutted by post championship free agent defections and injuries), the defending champs have a legitimate and very real advantage over their competitors.

We do see the occasional one year wonder – the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers, the 2004 Detroit Pistons, the 2006 Miami Heat, the 2008 Boston Celtics and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks all stand out. But none of those teams were really ‘one year wonders.'

The 76ers were Boston’s biggest competitor for Eastern Conference supremacy, and they’d lost in the Finals twice in the previous three years before their title. Miami’s 2006 title team was coming off a 2005 playoff run that reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The ’08 Celtics might have won back-to-back titles, but the Kevin Garnett injury derailed their 2009 playoff run.

And the 2011 Mavericks, while arguably the biggest surprise champs of the bunch, had a string of eleven consecutive 50+ win seasons going – they certainly weren’t upstarts. Let’s not forget that Dallas enjoyed the benefit when top seed San Antonio was upset in the first round by Memphis that year as well – lucky as well as being good.

Enough with the history lesson! Who’s going to win the title this year? Picking the eventual NBA champion prior to the end of the regular season requires only one skill set – the ability to identify the best team. And this year, there’s only one reasonable choice as the ‘best team’ – the defending champion Miami Heat.

Quite frankly, you knew the answer before you started reading this article—it’s Miami, of course. The Heat won the title last year; gaining immeasurable confidence and experience in the process. They return every key player and coach from that championship squad, and they were the best team in the league during the regular season.

Miami reeled off the second longest winning streak in NBA history after the All Star break. Despite all the guys sitting out games over the past few weeks (since they clinched home court advantage throughout the playoffs), Miami is perfectly healthy at the start of the postseason. And frankly, from a ‘who’s on the roster’ perspective, the Heat look every bit as good as they did a season ago – maybe better with the additions of key reserves Chris ‘Birdman’ Anderson and Rashard Lewis.

Nobody is going to beat the Heat if Miami stays healthy over the next two months. The Heat’s offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are off the charts. They’re ranked #1 in shooting percentage, #2 in three point shooting percentage and #3 in assist-to-turnover ratio. Miami is a Top 5 defensive team as well, in both points per game and shooting percentage allowed. Their biggest weakness – low post rebounding and shot blocking – is not an Achilles heel, dooming them to failure. It’s just a minor obstacle this championship ready team needs to overcome.

Can anyone knock off the Heat on their way to another title? I certainly don’t see anyone in the East challenging Miami’s supremacy. Only two teams have any realistic chance of hanging tough with the defending champs—Indiana and New York.

A month ago, I would have listed the Pacers as Miami’s toughest Eastern Conference potential test. Indiana’s defensive numbers rank among the best in the NBA, and low post behemoth Roy Hibbert is a very tough matchup for the Heat in the paint. Indiana beat Miami twice during the regular season, and the Pacers were the last team to give the Heat real trouble in the playoffs last year, taking a 2-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference semi’s before the Heat closed out the series with three straight wins.

But the Pacers have not played well down the stretch; struggling to find offensive production during crunch time of close games. Can the George Hill/Lance Stephenson/Paul George trio really hang with LeBron and Dwayne Wade for seven games? And with aging power forward David West wearing down since the All Star break, even Indiana’s defensive mindset isn’t enough for me to expect them to hang tough with Miami.

The Knicks have a similar defensive mindset, and their roster is loaded with low post defensive forces. Tyson Chandler’s defense helped Dallas win a title over Miami two years ago. Kenyon Martin has been to the Finals with New Jersey. Marcus Camby has been an elite level defensive center for the last decade. Rasheed Wallace earned a championship ring with the Pistons. Amar’e Stoudamire had extensive playoff experience (although limited success) with Phoenix. As a quintet, those five aging veterans are as tough as nails come playoff time; capable of creating issues for Miami’s numerous penetrators.

But that quintet of strong low post veteran defenders doesn’t feature a single fully healthy player as the playoffs approach. The Knicks aren’t going to face the Heat until after they’ve already won two previous seven game playoff series; one of which is likely to be a very tough test against the Pacers. If the Knicks don’t have at least three of four of those aforementioned low post studs healthy for the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami, it could get ugly for the upstart. And questions certainly persist for the Knicks at the point guard position as well. Are Ray Felton and an aging Jason Kidd good enough to carry a team to multiple playoff series wins at this stage of their respective careers? I wouldn’t bet on it!

Next week, I’ll break down the West, offering my take on which team has the best chance to lose to Miami in the Finals.