Friday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets (-9.5, 197.5)
The Washington Wizards gave newly-appointed coach Randy Wittman a warm welcome in his first game behind the bench, hammering Charlotte 92-75 as 7.5-point favorites.
It was their best defensive showing of the season and it snapped a skid that saw them win just once in their previous eight games. While former coach Flip Saunders was more of a player’s coach (read: pushover), Wittman isn’t going to put up poor efforts.
"If they want to play, they are going to have to be accountable," Wittman told reporters of his team. "I think every player wants to play. If they don't, we've got to find a way to get them out of here. That's pretty easy, to be honest with you. Doing your job and doing it the way it needs to be done, you'll play. If not, I'll find somebody else to play."
That’s the direct approach this team needs. The Wizards have a lot of issues, but you can at least expect them to put in an honest effort for the next while.
Pick: Wizards
New Jersey Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3, 191)
A couple of days after the Nets were torched by the Bulls when they welcomed Derrick Rose back to the lineup, Deron Williams wasn’t about to let another victory slip past his team.
Williams scored 17 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to help New Jersey to a 97-90 win at Philadelphia with the Nets set as 11.5-point underdogs.
“At the end of the game, we basically put the ball in Deron’s hands and said, ‘Take us home’ and that’s what he did,” coach Avery Johnson told reporters.
Williams has been on a major hot streak lately, averaging 21.4 points and 9.4 assists per game over his last five outings.
Cleveland is coming off an upset against the Knicks and did cover against the Heat earlier this week, but is still allowing almost 103 points per game over the last five.
Pick: Nets
Friday's Tip Sheet
By PJ Laferla
VegasInsider.com
Friday features nearly a full slate of action in the NBA, with 26 of the 30 teams in the league set to hit the hardwood. All but one (Boston) are playing on at least one full day of rest – something that hasn’t happened too often in this cramped version of 2011-12 NBA campaign.
Below is a breakdown of two key notable matchups from a bettor’s perspective:
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
If nothing else, the Bucks come into the United Center knowing that the Bulls are not totally invincible on their home floor. Wednesday night, the Indiana Pacers became the first visiting team out of nine to beat the Bulls (95-90) and in the process, give other teams in the league the confidence to know it can be done!
Win, lose or cover?
The Bucks have won three consecutive road games straight up and in that span generated a perfect 3-0 record against the spread – beating New York, Miami and Houston. Overall, the Bucks won/loss and ATS records are an identical match, standing at three games under the .500 mark (7-10), but they have managed to cover four of seven on the road.
The Bulls have mounted a 16-4 record through their first 20 games this season and certainly look like a team with one goal in mind… representing the Eastern Conference in NBA Finals. Their stellar production is attributed on the defensive side of the ball – leading the league in rebounds (45.2 per game) and building a reputation as the stingiest in the league to give up points, at fewer than 86.5 per game. Their ATS record isn’t quite as elite, but nonetheless, it is a very respectable 12-8 (60%).
The numbers are stacked too high against the Bucks to come away with a victory or even a point-spread cover in this matchup. They have only notched one straight up win versus the Bulls in Chicago out of their last 11 tries and have only covered two of its last six games when they play at the United Center.
Look for the Bucks three-game road winning streak to come to an abrupt end tonight, as they will be over-powered on both sides of the ball.
Injury Notes: The Bucks will be without center, Andrew Bogut, as he sprained his left ankle this past Wednesday during the first quarter against the Rockets.
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
The Knicks take their talent to South Beach, but with a 7-11 record, the expectations for this battle fall well short of what we all anticipated prior to the start of the season. On the other side, Miami is living up to its end, producing a 13-5 record – good enough for tops in the Southeast Division.
Win, lose or cover?
The Knicks own a terrible 4-14 record against the spread – easily ranking dead last in the league. They have lost their last seven of eight straight up and against the spread and three of their last four on the road. Simply put, the Knicks just aren’t getting the job done and have been a tough team to invest money in thus far.
The Heat have been winning as of late, producing five victories in the last six games. However, they are falling well short against the spread, covering only three games in their last nine outings, but they are above the .500 mark (ATS) at home… albeit a very modest 5-4 record.
Although pro teams shouldn’t be affected from “looking ahead” to future matchups, I am sure Miami can’t help but to have their sights set on the Bulls this upcoming Sunday; which may have them taking the Knicks and their poor performance a bit lightly. Add to this, they are probably going to be without guard Dwyane Wade (see notes) and you have the makings of an upset, with the Knicks FINALLY getting it done with a point-spread cover on the road against the Heat.
Injury Notes: Dwyane Wade has been absent from the lineup for the past six games with a sprained right ankle, sore left foot and a strained calf muscle. His presence for this matchup is still in doubt. Miami is 8-1 SU this season without Wade.
Hot Teams
-- 76ers covered eight of ten as a home favorite.
-- Nets are 3-2 in last five games after a 3-11 start (6-6 as road dog).
-- Boston won/covered four of its last five games (3-5 as home favorite). Pacers won six of last eight games (3-2 as road dog).
-- Bulls won four of last five games (4-4-1 as home favorite). Milwaukee won its last three road games.
-- Rockets won seven of last eight games (2-2-1 as home favorite).
-- Miami won five of last six games (5-4 as home favorite).
-- Minnesota covered four of five as a home underdog.
-- Jazz won nine of their last twelve games. Dallas covered six of their last seven games as a home favorite.
-- Nuggets won/covered four of their last five games. Toronto won its last two games; they're 7-5 as a road dog.
-- Portland covered seven of last eight as a home favorite.
-- Thunder won five of last six road games, covering four of last five.
Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost their last five games (4-6 as road dog).
-- Cavaliers lost four of last five games (2-2 as home favorite).
-- Hawks lost three of their last four road games (3-2 as road favorite). Detroit lost six of its last seven games overall (4-4 as home dog).
-- New Orleans lost its last nine games, covered last four. Magic is 2-3 in last five games, but won five of last six on road.
-- Wizards are 1-5-1 vs spread as a road underdog.
-- Knicks are 0-5 against the spread as an underdog.
-- Spurs lost six of their eight road games.
-- Suns covered twice in last seven games as a road underdog.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Charlotte road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven New Jersey road games went over the total.
-- Last eight Boston home games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Detroit home games went over.
-- Four of Milwaukee's last five road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Orlando road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Washington games went over the total.
-- Eight of nine New York road games stayed under total.
-- Five of San Antonio's last six road games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas home games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Denver home games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Phoenix road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of Thunder's nine road games stayed under the total.
Wear and Tear
-- Bobcats: 5th game/7 nites. 76ers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Nets: 5th game/7 nites. Cavaliers: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pacers: 4th game/6 nites. Celtics: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Hawks: 3rd game/5 nites. Pistons: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Bucks: 4th game/6 nites. Bulls: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Magic: 4th game/5 nites. Hornets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Wizards: 4th game/6 nites. Rockets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Knicks: Had last two nights off. Heat: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Spurs: 3rd game/5 nites. Wolves: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Jazz: 2nd game/6 nites. Mavericks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Raptors: 4th game/6 nites. Nuggets: 2nd game/6 nites.
-- Suns: Had last two nights off. Trailblazers: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Thunder: 3rd game/5 nites. Warriors: 3rd game/5 nites.
CHARLOTTE (3 - 16) at PHILADELPHIA (12 - 6) - 1/27/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 4-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW JERSEY (6 - 13) at CLEVELAND (7 - 10) - 1/27/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 79-103 ATS (-34.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 71-91 ATS (-29.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 5-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-3 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (12 - 5) at BOSTON (8 - 9) - 1/27/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 5-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (13 - 6) at DETROIT (4 - 15) - 1/27/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MILWAUKEE (7 - 10) at CHICAGO (16 - 4) - 1/27/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (12 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 15) - 1/27/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (3 - 15) at HOUSTON (10 - 8) - 1/27/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 55-74 ATS (-26.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 236-183 ATS (+34.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 154-119 ATS (+23.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW YORK (7 - 11) at MIAMI (13 - 5) - 1/27/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN ANTONIO (12 - 7) at MINNESOTA (8 - 10) - 1/27/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 243-188 ATS (+36.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH (10 - 6) at DALLAS (11 - 8) - 1/27/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (6 - 13) at DENVER (13 - 5) - 1/27/2012, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHOENIX (6 - 11) at PORTLAND (11 - 8) - 1/27/2012, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-6 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-7 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (15 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (6 - 11) - 1/27/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 112-90 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 11 games at home
INDIANA vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Indiana is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
NEW JERSEY vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
Cleveland is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Jersey
MILWAUKEE vs. CHICAGO
Milwaukee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games at home
Chicago is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
ORLANDO vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Orlando's last 15 games when playing New Orleans
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing Orlando
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
SAN ANTONIO vs. MINNESOTA
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Antonio's last 12 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
NEW YORK vs. MIAMI
New York is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
Washington is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
UTAH vs. DALLAS
Utah is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games at home
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
TORONTO vs. DENVER
Toronto is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
PHOENIX vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Phoenix
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oklahoma City's last 13 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
CHARLOTTE at PHILADELPHIA
CHARLOTTE: 1-5 ATS off division game
PHILADELPHIA: 8-2 ATS in home games
NEW JERSEY at CLEVELAND
NEW JERSEY: 6-18 ATS as road dog of 6 pts or less
CLEVELAND: 17-6 ATS off home win by 10+
INDIANA at BOSTON
INDIANA: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win over division opp
BOSTON: 9-1 Under in home games
ATLANTA at DETROIT
ATLANTA: 6-0 Under as road underdog
DETROIT: 1-5 ATS off home loss
MILWAUKEE at CHICAGO
MILWAUKEE: 21-9 ATS after scoring 105+ pts
CHICAGO: 3-0 ATS off SU loss as favorite
ORLANDO at NEW ORLEANS
ORLANDO: 7-0 Under if home favorite last game
NEW ORLEANS: 16-3 ATS vs. Southeast Division
WASHINGTON at HOUSTON
WASHINGTON: 4-18 ATS off home win
HOUSTON: 7-0 Under off SU loss
NEW YORK at MIAMI
NEW YORK: 27-13 ATS at Miami
MIAMI: 18-6 Over off 3+ ATS losses
SAN ANTONIO at MINNESOTA
SAN ANTONIO: 18-6 Over as road underdog
MINNESOTA: 20-35 ATS after scoring 105+
UTAH at DALLAS
UTAH: 1-6 ATS revenging loss of 3 pts or less
DALLAS: 5-1 ATS off ATS loss
TORONTO at DENVER
TORONTO: 13-24 ATS after scoring 205+
DENVER: 25-12 ATS vs. Eastern Conference
PHOENIX at PORTLAND
PHOENIX: 3-12 ATS off SU loss as favorite
PORTLAND: 8-0 Under as double digit favorite
OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
OKLAHOMA CITY: 24-11 ATS on Friday nights
GOLDEN STATE: 19-9 Under off home win
Hoop Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Bobcats are 12-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Jazz are 10-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 23, 2005 on the road after a home loss in which their DPS was positive.
USER TREND:
The league is 1-21 Under at home with total 190 or more after playing the Knicks:
CHOICE TOP TREND:
The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since April 04, 2010 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.