Friday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks (N/A)
Dallas Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle knows exactly what his team is up against Friday night. Considering he was behind the Pacers bench from 2003-2007, he’d better.
The Pacers had some success when he was drawing up the plays, but now it looks like they’re ready to take it to the next level.
"They've got all the ingredients of championship teams - they've got athleticism, length, skill and size," Carlisle told the Pacers' official website. "They're going to be a major factor."
Danny Granger has been a big part of the club’s success. He went off for 36 points in 109-99 upset of the Timberwolves and is averaging a team-high 18.3 points per game.
Right now Dallas could only dream of that type of production from Dirk Nowitzki. He is shooting just 28.2 percent in three games since his conditioning stint.
Sooner or later, Dallas is going to need him to get it going.
Pick: Pacers
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (-6.5, 198)
For a two-time MVP, Steve Nash is probably never going to get as much credit as he deserves. He keeps getting it done even though he turns 38 on Tuesday.
Nash put up 30 points and 10 assists in a 120-103 blowout of New Orleans and became the franchise’s all-time leader in assists with one of those dimes.
"Obviously, when Steve (Nash) is going like that we're pretty good. He was real aggressive offensively and shot the ball well,” coach Alvin Gentry told reporters. “I thought we did a good job in our spin and roll offense of rolling and getting some more easy baskets."
The Suns needed a strong effort after getting blown out by Dallas, but easy buckets might not be as easy to come by in this matchup.
Both teams have been a solid under bet this season and Houston has played below the total in 11 of its last 15 home games.
Pick: Under
Friday's Game of the Day
By PJ Laferla
VegasInsider.com
Miami (16-6 SU, 9-13 ATS) at Philadelphia (16-6 SU, 16-6 ATS)
LeBron James and the Miami Heat visit the “City of Brotherly Love” on Friday for a rematch with the Philadelphia 76ers. The first encounter between the pair took place less than two weeks ago in South Beach, where Miami handily beat the 76ers (113-92) and notched a point-spread cover (-7) in the process. But, the result for the 76ers also left a big question mark on their legitimacy as a “for real” team in this league. No one has given the 76ers credit for beating the bad teams, which is attributed to their outstanding record thus far. However my view is “beating the teams or not beating the bad teams you are suppose to beat” makes all the difference in the success or lack thereof for a club during a season; and could be a difference maker when playoff seeding scenarios occur. Both the Heat and the 76ers are atop their respective divisions, both have a winning percentage better than .700 and both have beaten the Chicago Bulls (18-6) this season.
Contender or Pretender?
When it comes to the collecting at the window, which is the most important thing to bettors, then the 76ers are clearly the contender and the Heat the Pretender.
The 76ers boast a 16-6 (73%) overall record against the spread and they own a sterling 12-2 (86%) ledger when playing at the Wells Fargo Center. They are 12-3 (80%) straight up versus the Eastern Conference and 11-4 (73%) against the spread. They have crushed the Southeast Division with a 6-1 (86%) record and accommodated Vegas with a 5-2 (71%) mark against the spread in those games, but make a note that four of the wins came against the Wizards and Bobcats.
The Heat on the other hand owns a 16-6 straight up record as well, but their ATS numbers hardly match up to the 76ers. In fact, Miami is 9-13 (42%) against the spread overall and on the road they own a very poor 3-7 (30%) record. They have handled the Atlantic Division thus far, winning all four of their matchups, but have only managed to come away with two point-spread covers.
Who will cover this game?
The 76ers come into this game riding a four-game winning streak – beating teams like the Orlando Magic (74-69) and Chicago Bulls (98-82) during that stretch. The verdict that has been out on the 76ers not beating good teams should now be in, as they have proven they can compete in this league.
But before we run to the window to make a wager on this game, we cannot overlook how easily the Heat beat the 76ers in their last meeting…albeit it was a road game for Philadelphia and the performance they deliver on the road compared to playing at home is staggering. Doug Collins team is 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS away from home.
Philadelphia is a young and fun team to watch with an excellent coach in Collins, and I am a fan of their style of play. And even though their defense is stifling (giving up fewer than 86 points per game) the fact of the matter is, Miami has too many weapons and is a much better team – especially executing on the offensive end.
After seeing their five-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday at Milwaukee (97-105), I believe the Heat will prove superior once again versus Philadelphia.
Betting Notes:
Betonline.com opened Miami opened as a 3½-point road favorite over Philadelphia. The number has already come down to 2.
Including the aforementioned meeting this season, Miami has won 12 of 13 against Philadelphia.
The Heat are 7-6 ATS during this span.
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games and is 0-5 ATS in its last five road battles.
Philadelphia has only been an underdog four times this season (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and the lone outright win came Wednesday against Chicago.
Total players are looking at an opener of 194, which has been dropped to 193. The 76ers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-3 at home, while the Heat have been an ‘over’ (7-3) team on the road.
Injury Notes:
76ers: Spencer Hawes, Center – out indefinitely (Achilles)
Heat: None
Hot Teams
-- 76ers won 12 of their 14 home games (11-3 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers covered five of their last six road games.
-- Bucks won six of their last eight games (7-1 vs spread).
-- Minnesota covered seven of its nine road games. Nets are 5-4 in their last nine games (1-4 as home dog).
-- Thunder won their last five home games (4-1 vs spread).
-- Boston won/covered three of its last four home games.
-- Rockets won nine of their twelve home games (4-3-1 as HF).
-- Dallas won six of its last eight games (7-3 last 10 as home favorite). Pacers won five of their last six road games.
-- Nuggets won seven of their last nine games.
Cold Teams
-- Miami lost four of its last five road games.
-- Wizards are 2-6-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Toronto lost three of last four games, losing last game 100-64.
-- Orlando lost four of last five games (1-5 in last six as home favorite).
-- Pistons lost their last seven games, but covered last three at home.
-- Grizzlies are 3-6 vs spread as a road underdog.
-- Knicks lost ten of their last twelve road games (1-5 as road dog).
-- Suns lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Lakers are 2-6 away from the Staples Center.
Wear and Tear
-- Heat: 4th game/6 nites. 76ers: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Wizards: 3rd game/5 nites. Raptors: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Cavaliers: Had last two nites off. Magic: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Bucks: 3rd game/5 nites. Pistons: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Wolves: 4th game/6 nites. Nets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 5th game/7 nites. Thunder: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Knicks: 3rd game/4 nites. Celtics: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/5 nites. Rockets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Pacers: 4th game/6 nites. Mavericks: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Lakers: Had last two nites off. Nuggets: 4th game/6 nites.
Totals
-- Eight of ten Miami games went over the total. Five of Philly's last six games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Washington road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last six Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Last six Memphis road games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of 11 New York road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Phoenix road games stayed under total.
-- Last five Indiana road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Laker games went over the total.
MIAMI (16 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (16 - 6) - 2/3/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 69-101 ATS (-42.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (4 - 18) at TORONTO (7 - 16) - 2/3/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (8 - 12) at ORLANDO (13 - 9) - 2/3/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 47-62 ATS (-21.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 39-54 ATS (-20.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-4 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 6-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MILWAUKEE (10 - 11) at DETROIT (4 - 20) - 2/3/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-5 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (10 - 12) at NEW JERSEY (8 - 15) - 2/3/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 26-42 ATS (-20.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 81-105 ATS (-34.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MEMPHIS (12 - 10) at OKLAHOMA CITY (17 - 4) - 2/3/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 114-91 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-6 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-7 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW YORK (8 - 14) at BOSTON (11 - 10) - 2/3/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 7-6 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHOENIX (8 - 13) at HOUSTON (12 - 10) - 2/3/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 74-107 ATS (-43.7 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (15 - 6) at DALLAS (14 - 9) - 2/3/2012, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAKERS (13 - 9) at DENVER (15 - 7) - 2/3/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 97-120 ATS (-35.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 127-169 ATS (-58.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 7-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND vs. ORLANDO
Cleveland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Orlando is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home
WASHINGTON vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 17 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Toronto's last 21 games when playing Washington
MINNESOTA vs. NEW JERSEY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Jersey is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
New Jersey is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
MILWAUKEE vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Milwaukee
NEW YORK vs. BOSTON
New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New York's last 16 games
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New York
MEMPHIS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Memphis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Memphis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Oklahoma City's last 14 games when playing Memphis
Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis
PHOENIX vs. HOUSTON
Phoenix is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
Phoenix is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Houston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Phoenix
INDIANA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games
Dallas is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indiana
Dallas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA LAKERS vs. DENVER
LA Lakers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road
LA Lakers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
MIAMI at PHILADELPHIA
MIAMI: 2-7 ATS as road favorite
PHILADELPHIA: 11-3 ATS in home games
WASHINGTON at TORONTO
WASHINGTON: 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points
TORONTO: 7-0 Under w/ revenge for loss of 10+
CLEVELAND at ORLANDO
CLEVELAND: 12-17 ATS at Orlando
ORLANDO: 9-0 Under if home favorite last game
MILWAUKEE at DETROIT
MILWAUKEE: 22-9 ATS after scoring 105+
DETROIT: 1-6 ATS vs. division
MINNESOTA at NEW JERSEY
MINNESOTA: 23-11 Under off home loss
NEW JERSEY: 13-4 ATS at home vs. Western Conf
MEMPHIS at OKLAHOMA CITY
MEMPHIS: 20-4 ATS playing on back to back days
OKLAHOMA CITY: 6-1 Over at home vs. Memphis
NEW YORK at BOSTON
NEW YORK: 1-5 ATS playing on back to back days
BOSTON: 11-2 Under in home games
PHOENIX at HOUSTON
PHOENIX: 10-1 Under when the total is 190 to 199.5
HOUSTON: 9-0 Under off a loss
INDIANA at DALLAS
INDIANA: 12-4 Under off double digit outright win as a dog
DALLAS: 7-1 ATS off ATS loss
LA LAKERS at DENVER
LA LAKERS: 23-11 Under as road underdog
DENVER: 25-12 ATS playing 3rd game in 4 days
Hoop Trends - Friday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Suns are 13-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since May 09, 2005 with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pistons are 10-0-1 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 28, 2002 at home with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Thunder are 11-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since March 07, 2010 if not more than six point dogs, after winning the previous matchup in which Russell Westbrook scored at least 30 points.
DAILY ANGLE:
Play against a team averaging a -6 or worse average ppg margin playing at home after a squeak by win. In Database history, this weak home dog is shut down the next day 80-33-3 (2.7, 70.7%) ATS!
CHOICE TOP TREND:
The League is 0-11 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 10, 2010 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. Active on Toronto.