Heat at Celtics Game 3: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-2, 180)
THE STORY: The scene shifts to Boston and the Celtics find themselves in a must-win situation in Friday’s Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat. Boston point guard Rajon Rondo had a game for the ages in Game 2 but the Heat rallied from a 15-point deficit and prevailed in overtime to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-7 series. The Celtics haven’t recovered from such a playoff hole to win a series since 1969.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Forward LeBron James had 34 points and 10 rebounds but solid production from guard Mario Chalmers (22 points) and forward Udonis Haslem (13 points, 11 rebounds) were key components in Game 2. Guard Dwyane Wade recovered from a miserable start to score 23 points and is the first player with 20 points in 12 consecutive playoff games since legend Jerry West had 18 straight such performances for the Los Angeles Lakers in the late 1960s. Forward Chris Bosh (abdominal strain) hasn’t made enough progress to have a chance at playing in the two games in Boston.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Rondo played all 53 minutes of Wednesday’s overtime contest and scored a career-high 44 points – including all 12 Boston points in overtime – to go with 10 assists and eight rebounds. He hit 16 of 24 shots as he became the first player in Celtics’ history to record 40 points and 10 assists in a playoff game. The concern for Game 3 will be how much Boston has in the tank after coming up short despite Rondo’s memorable performance. “I thought we played with great heart, but I didn’t think we played smart all the time,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “And there are things we can absolutely fix, and we’ll do that.”
TRENDS:
- The Heat are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.
- The Celtics are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.
- The under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings in Boston.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Overcoming a 15-point deficit represented Miami’s largest playoff comeback victory in franchise history. The Heat had twice overcome 14-point deficits.
2. James shot 24 free throws in Game 2 and Miami attempted 47 overall (making 31). Boston was 26 of 29.
3. Celtics forward Paul Pierce has fouled out of two of the last three games, including Game 7 of the series against Philadelphia.
Game 3, Heat-Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The home teams have held serve through the first four games of the conference finals in the NBA playoffs, as the scene in the East shifts to Boston. The Heat survived a scare in Game 2 against the feisty Celtics, rallying from a 15-point deficit to knock off Boston in overtime, 115-111. Miami failed to cash as 7½-point favorites, but the Heat has their foot on the Celtics' throats heading to Beantown for Friday's Game 3.
After cruising past the C's in the series opener, Erik Spoelstra's team came out slow in the first half of Game 2. Rajon Rondo put together the game of his life as the Boston point guard scored 22 points in the first half to give the Celtics a 53-46 advantage. The Heat fell behind, 47-32 with four minutes remaining in the half, but a 14-6 run cut the deficit to seven points at the intermission. However, Boston cashed easily as 4½-point underdogs in the first half, while the 'over' of 89 hit with 90 seconds left before halftime.
Rondo's unexpected production in the first 24 minutes was as surprising as Dwyane Wade's disappearing act in the opening half. Wade scored just two points early on, but helped spark the huge third quarter rally by Miami, a 35-22 output to take a six-point lead heading into the final period. Both Wade and MVP LeBron James combined to score 23 points in that important 12 minutes, but Kevin Garnett's jumper to beat the buzzer killed some of Miami's momentum heading into the fourth quarter.
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Boston pulled off a 15-4 run to start the final period, but the Celtics couldn't hold onto a late five-point lead as the game headed to overtime. The game sailed 'over' the total of 178½ in regulation (99-99), while Miami had an opportunity to cover late in overtime after grabbing a six-point lead, 114-108. Rondo drilled a pair of three-pointers in the final seconds to assure a Boston cover, but the Celtics dropped to 2-7 the last nine visits to the American Airlines Arena.
From a player props perspective (courtesy of Sportsbook.ag) in Game 2, Rondo easily surpassed the 26 points + assists in the first half alone, while putting 54 combined points and assists. Despite fouling out in overtime, Paul Pierce squeezed past his personal total of 19 by scoring 21 points, but Garnett fell short of his 18½ number with 18 points. James cashed on his 44 ½ total of points, rebounds, and assists with a grand total of 51, while Wade finished shy of his 25 point player prop by two points.
Looking ahead to Game 3 in the player props category, Sportsbook.ag listed James at 30½ points (shaded to the 'over' at -120), while Rondo's combined points and rebounds are set at 23½ (shaded to the 'over' at -140). James has topped the 31-point mark in six of 13 postseason games, including twice in five road contests. The Celtics' guard eclipsed the 23 ½ points + rebounds plateau in five of 13 playoff contests, while grabbing seven or more boards in seven postseason games.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David returns with a look from the totals aspect heading into Friday, "Even though the Celtics and Heat combined for 226 points in Game 2, the opening number on Game 3 is still in the same neighborhood and I'm not surprised. The pace for the first two installments was about the same, but the difference between going 'over' or 'under' was the hot shooting percentages and the eye opening amount of free throws attempted (76). The total opened 179 and quickly jumped to 180½ points. With the Celtics sitting as short favorites (-2), the oddsmakers are expecting the winner to get close to 90 points. Normally, most would believe that Miami has a better shot to accomplish the feat but doing so at Boston won't be easy."
With things shifting to New England, David believes that Boston's defense will tighten up, "In the playoffs at TD Garden, the Celtics have surrendered 82.3 PPG albeit against the Hawks and 76ers. And after losing a shootout in overtime, you would have to think Doc Rivers will have Rondo slow down the tempo and work the half-court sets at home. Also, if you're looking for recent playoff trends, Miami has seen the 'under' go 3-2 on the road and it scored 87 and 75 points in Game 3 at New York and Indiana and respectively."
The Heat owns a 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS record on the road this season off a home victory, while going just 1-1 SU/ATS in the underdog role. On the flip side, the Celtics dominated at TD Garden off an away defeat, posting a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS mark, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS ledger in the postseason.
Despite being down 2-0, the Celtics are listed as two-point favorites in Game 3, while the total is set at 180. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
NBA Preview
Heat (2-0) @ Celtics -- Miami lost both games here during season; they survived OT home win in Game 2, with James 18-24 from foul line by himelf, rest of team just 13-23. James/Wade combined to shoot 21-35 (60%) from floor in Game 1, 15-35 last game- they got 22 points from Chambers last game, an unexpected help. Boston is just 4-3 at home in playoffs. Fact of matter is that over in Celtics' eight playoff wins, over is 5-3- they only scored 79 points in Game 1, 99 in regulation last game. Under is 4-2-1 in Boston's six playoff losses. Rondo had 44 points, 10 assists last game; what will Miami do, if anything, to reduce his scoring, or will they defy him to do that again? Much like last night, Celtics need win to keep series close.
Armadillosports.com
MIAMI (56 - 23) at BOSTON (47 - 34)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 84-105 ATS (-31.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 152-192 ATS (-59.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 15-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 14-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 23 games
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Boston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami at Boston
Miami: 10-2 Under after a combined score of 205+ points
Boston: 16-5 Under off BB losses