NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, April 28th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Celtics won last three series games, by 17-9-11 points, with Rondo out with broken thumb- he is not expected back here; their series wins stayed under total, their losses went over. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games overall. Bulls shot 50% from floor in Game 3 loss but were -10 (16-6) in turnovers. Chicago is 20-71 on arc in its last three games. Boston won Games 3-4 here, by 17-9 points; Bulls’ last four home games stayed under the total. Celtics were 9-40 on arc in last game, but 23-23 on foul line, most FT’s they’ve taken in game in this series.
Home side won nine of last ten Wizard-Hawk games, including all five in this series (favorites 4-1 vs spread); Wizards lost Games 3-4 here by 2-10 points. Three of last four series games stayed under total- under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games overall. Hawks’ bench was 8-24 from floor in Game 5 loss; Atlanta won its last five home games, scoring 115.8 pts/game. In its three series losses, Hawks were -7/-7/-5 in turnovers; they were +4/+2 in two wins. Dwight Howard played 28:00 in Game 5, took three shots from floor (1-4 FT’s); how is that possible?
Gobert played 36:00 in Game 5, scoring 11 points, grabbing 11 boards; his +6 was second-best for Jazz in huge road win. Utah bench outscored Clippers’ subs 36-16 in Game 5 upset at Staples. Jazz bench has 102-53 scoring edge in last two tilts. Clippers scored 99-111 points in two series wins- they scored less than 99 in all three losses, Road team is 3-2 SU in this series; under is 3-2 in series. Clippers won three of last five games in SLC (over 4-1). LA bench was just 5-22 from floor in Game 5; they’ll need more from Crawford here.
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Wizards at Hawks
Washington (52-35 straight up, 44-42-1 against the spread) took a 3-2 series lead thanks to Wednesday’s 103-99 win over Atlanta as a six-point home favorite. The Hawks took the cash for the third straight time in this best-of-seven set, while the 202 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 211.5-point total. Bradley Beal led the winners with 27 points, five rebounds, three steals and three blocked shots in 41-plus turnover-free minutes. John Wall added 20 points, 14 assists and six rebounds. Otto Porter Jr. scored a series-best 17 points and needed only four shots from the field to do so. Bojan Bogdanovic contributed 14 points and six boards, while Marcin Gortat finished with five points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots.
Dennis Schroder was sensational for Atlanta in the losing effort. The fourth-year point guard had 29 points, two steals and 11 assists compared to only one turnover. He became the first Hawk since ‘Pistol’ Pete Maravich to have 25 points and 10 assists in a postseason game (hat tip, Ernie Johnson Jr.) For the series, Schroder is averaging 24.4 points per game and has a 36/8 assists-to-turnover ratio.
Paul Millsap produced 21 points, 11 rebounds and two assists in Game 5. Tim Hardaway Jr. finished with 15 points, while Taurean Prince had 10 points, six rebounds, one block and four assists compared to merely one turnover. Prince, the rookie forward out of Baylor, has started throughout the series and has scored in double figures in each contest.
Dwight Howard had his best game of the series in a 111-101 triumph in Game 5, scoring 16 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. However, he had only five points and 10 rebounds in 28 minutes of action in Game 5 at Verizon Center. Howard has scored in double figures just once in this series.
With Washington clinging to a 101-96 advantage, Schroder hit a 3-ball with 1:09 remaining to trim the deficit to two. On the ensuing possession, however, Wall drained a 20-footer with 45 ticks left to make it a four-point game. Atlanta couldn’t answer and after getting a stop, Hardaway missed a 3-pointer right before the final seconds dripped off the clock.
As of Thursday night, most betting shops had Atlanta (45-42 SU, 42-45 ATS) installed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 210. The Wizards were +135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $135).
Mike Budenholzer’s squad is 25-18 SU and 19-24 ATS at home this season.
Washington owns a 19-24 SU record and a 19-23-1 ATS mark in its road assignments this year.
Totals have been a wash overall (2-2-1) in this series. In four regular-season meetings between these clubs, the ‘under’ went 3-1.
The ‘under’ is 50-34-3 overall for the Hawks, 23-19-1 in their home games.
The ‘over’ is 53-33-1 overall for the Wizards, 27-15-1 in their road assignments.
Sportsbook.ag has Washington as the -480 favorite for the series, while Atlanta is +380 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $380).
VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers pointed out to me that home favorites killed it in Game 6’s last season. Rogers said, “This is the second situation in this postseason with home favorites heading into Game 6 trailing 3-2. In 2016, home favorites in this situation compiled a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, including Cleveland beating Golden State by 14 points in the NBA Finals. In fact, all three squads in this scenario (Cleveland, Miami, Indiana) won by double digits to force a Game 7 on the road. Washington entered this postseason with an incredible 10-1 ATS record since 2014 in the role of an away underdog, but it is 0-2 ATS in this round as a road ‘dog. Also, the Wizards have lost four of their last five road playoff games at Philips Arena.”
Celtics at Bulls
As of Thursday night, most books had Boston (56-31 SU, 43-42-2 ATS) listed as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 204. The Bulls were +105 on the money line.
Since falling into a 0-2 hole, Boston has ripped off three straight victories and covered the spread in each instance. The Celtics won a 108-97 decision over Chicago as eight-point home favorites in Wednesday’s Game 5 at TD Garden. The 205 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 205.5-point total. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley scored 24 points apiece to lead the way. Al Horford stuffed the box score with 21 points, seven rebounds, one steal and nine assists compared to only one turnover. Kelly Olynyk added 14 points and five boards in 20-plus minutes off the bench. Jae Crowder contributed eight points, eight boards and a pair of blocked shots.
Chicago (43-44 SU, 44-43 ATS) led by two going into the final stanza of Game 5 at Boston, but the Celtics outscored it 29-16 in the fourth quarter. Dwyane Wade produced 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in the losing effort. Jimmy Butler added 14 points, eight boards and six assists, while Robin Lopez finished with 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, three blocks and one steal. Isaiah Canaan was also in double figures with 13 points.
Despite losing his sister in a tragic one-car accident the day before the series opener, Thomas has averaged 25.2 points, 5.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game in the series. He has struggled with his 3-point shot, though, making only 8-of-38 launches from downtown (21.1%).
Boston owns a 25-18 SU record and a 25-16-2 ATS ledger in road games this season.
After scoring 106 and 111 points in victories at Boston to open the series, Chicago has struggled offensively without Rajon Rondo. The Bulls have produced only 87, 95 and 97 in the last three outings.
Rondo scored 12 points to go with eight rebounds, two steals and six assists with just one turnover in Game 1. Then in Game 2, he finished with 11 points, 14 assists, nine rebounds and five steals. However, he sustained a fractured thumb in Game 2 that’s caused him to miss the last three games. When he had the thumb placed in a cast on April 19, the original diagnosis was for the thumb to remain in a cast for 7-10 days. Friday will be the ninth day since then as Rondo is listed as ‘'out' for Game 6.
Chicago has a 25-18 SU record and a 21-22 ATS mark in its home games this year.
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag has Boston as the -1000 ‘chalk,’ leaving the Bulls as +650 underdogs (risk $100 to win $650).
The ‘under’ is 6-3 in the nine head-to-head meetings between these squads this year.
The ‘under’ is 51-35-1 overall for the Bulls, 27-16 in their home contests.
The ‘over’ is 42-41-4 overall for the Celtics, but the ‘under’ is 23-18-2 in their road outings.
Clippers at Jazz
Utah took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series thanks to Tuesday’s 96-92 win over the Clippers at Staples Center. The Jazz won outright as a three-point underdog, while the 188 combined points fell ‘under’ the 196-point tally. After L.A.’s Chris Paul buried a 3-pointers with 5.1 seconds left to trim the deficit to two, George Hill went to the free-throw line and hit a pair to put the game on ice.
After missing most of the Game 4 win due to food poisoning, Gordon Hayward was back at 100 percent for Game 5. The Butler product scored a game-high 27 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists and two steals. Hayward knocked down 4-of-8 shots from 3-point land. Rodney Hood added 16 points and five boards, while Joe Johnson contributed 14 points, eight rebounds and three assists. Hill finished with 12 points, seven assists and five boards, while Rudy Gobert had 11 points, 11 rebounds, five steals and two blocked shots. Boris Diaw was also in double figures with 10 points.
In the Game 5 defeat, Paul produced 28 points, nine assists and four rebounds. He made 4-of-6 attempts from long distance. J.J. Redick snapped out of a slump (he failed to score in double figures in the three previous games) to score 26 points. DeAndre Jordan finished with 14 points and 12 boards. With Blake Griffin out, the Clippers need production from veteran big man Mo Speights. He didn’t provide that Tuesday, though, missing all three shots in 13-plus minutes of PT. Jamal Crawford also had a poor outing in Game 5. The veteran scoring guard had only four points, missing six of eight shots from the field and both of his 3-point launches.
Following the Game 5 victory, Hayward told the Associated Press, “We want to close it out in Salt Lake City. We definitely don’t want to come here for Game 7.”
L.A. head coach Doc Rivers offered up these thoughts following the Game 5 setback: “It’s a tough loss, but it’s not like I’m going to bury my head or anything like that. We lost the game. You know, defensively overall I thought we played pretty well. Offensively, I didn’t think we played well at all. There were a lot of things I did like about the game, and there were a lot of things I didn’t. I think they’re all fixable.”
As of Thursday night, most spots had Utah (54-33 SU, 40-43-4 ATS) favored by 5.5 points with a total of 192.5. Gamblers had the chance to take the Clippers to win outright for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).
Los Angeles (53-34 SU, 41-45-1 ATS) is 23-20 SU and 20-23 ATS on the road this season.
Utah owns a 30-13 SU record and a 20-20-3 ATS mark in its home games this year.
The Clippers are 4-8 ATS in 12 games this year when they’ve been listed as underdogs of five points or more.
The updated series price: Utah -425, L.A. +315 (risk $100 to win $315). I think the Clippers are worth a small wager at that price.
The ‘under’ has cashed at 3-2 clip in this series, but the ‘over’ hit in Games 3 and 4 at Utah.
The ‘over’ is 46-40-1 overall for the Clippers, 28-15 in their road contests.
The ‘over’ 44-43 overall for the Jazz this year, but the ‘under’ is 22-21 in its home games.
Friday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-3, 210)
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (52-35 SU, 44-42-1 ATS, 53-33-1 O/U): Washington, which would host a potential Game 7, used solid defense and questionable decision-making by the other team to keep the Hawks from scoring over the final 68 seconds to earn a 103-99 win on Wednesday in Game 5. Washington guard Bradley Beal struggled with consistency in his shooting stroke over the first five games of the series but found ways to score despite a 1-of-9 effort from 3-point range in Game 5 and scored a team-high 27 points in the win. "It's playoff time," Beal told reporters. "It's winning time, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to get a win. We know that we can’t do it unless we get a stop. Whatever it takes, whether it’s rebounding, getting steals, blocking shots. Everybody plays a role. Everybody plays a part." Beal dug in on the defensive end in Game 5 and recorded three steals and three blocks.
ABOUT THE HAWKS (45-42 SU, 42-45 ATS, 34-50-3 O/U): Atlanta had its sense of urgency questioned after not fouling and letting time run off the clock in the final minute on Wednesday, and the team intends to fix those issues at home. Atlanta had a chance to win Game 5 in the end because of the play of point guard Dennis Schroder, who scored a game-high 29 points on 10-of-18 shooting to go along with 11 assists. "I think we were right there," Schroder told reporters of the closing minute of Game 5. "We had a chance to win. We missed a couple of rebounds. We missed a couple layups, shots. It’s tough. In crunch time we have to make those plays." Schroder is averaging 24.4 points in the series - up from a season mark of 17.9 - and went 5-of-6 from 3-point range in Game 5.
LINE HISTORY: The Hawks opened as three-point home favorites at home with their backs against the wall. The total hit the board at 210. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Wizards - PF J. Smith (Questionable, calf), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).
Hawks - No injuries to report.
TRENDS:
* Wizards are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
* Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Wizards last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Hawks last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (+2, 203.5)
ABOUT THE CELTICS (56-31 SU, 43-42-2 ATS, 42-41-4 O/U): The Boston Celtics have climbed out of an early hole and look to finally put away the Chicago Bulls in their first-round series when the teams meet in the Windy City for Game 6 on Friday. Bradley matched fellow guard Isaiah Thomas with 24 points in Game 5 but he was much more efficient, shooting 11-of-19 from the floor, compared to 6-of-17 for Thomas. "Even the stat sheet doesn't explain how good of a player he is sometimes," Thomas told the media of Bradley. "When he's not scoring or rebounding, he's doing a lot of things to help out everybody else on this team, whether that be help-side defense, whether that be making the right play on offense. He’s a complete basketball player." Center Al Horford has been making a bigger impact as the series drags on, averaging 18 points, nine rebounds, 6.3 assists and two steals in Boston's three victories.
ABOUT THE BULLS (43-44 SU, 44-43 ATS, 35-51-1 O/U): The Bulls will enter a do-or-die contest looking for more from one of their remaining stars. Jimmy Butler was held to a series-low 14 points in Game 5 and is shooting 38.5 percent in Chicago's three straight losses.Butler took just two shots during Boston's decisive 20-4 run in the fourth quarter, prompting Hoiberg to insist that the team needs to get its All-Star the ball a bit more down the stretch. Some wondered if a nagging knee issue was the reason Butler lacked his usual aggressiveness but he downplayed questions about the knee and said he will be fine for Game 6. While Butler sagged in Game 5, Dwyane Wade had his best outing since returning from an elbow injury late in the regular season, finishing with 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.
LINE HISTORY: The Bulls opened as one-point home favorites but that line jumped the fence Thursday afternoon and the Celtics are now listed as two-point road favorites. The total hit the board at 203.5 and has yet to move. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Celtics - SF J. Brown (Questionable, illness).
Bulls - PG R. Rondo (Out, thumb).
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 11-3-2 in Celtics last 16 road games.
* Under is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz (-6, 192.5)
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (53-34 SU, 41-45-1 ATS, 46-40-1 O/U): Los Angeles has its back against the wall and being sent home in the opening round would leave a bitter taste in the mouths of players who were predicting a spot in the conference finals. "This team is not going to quit, I can tell you that," Clippers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "You could see it in the locker room." Los Angeles was mighty dismayed with the Game 5 showing in which it scored only 58 points through three quarters before succumbing 96-92 on its home floor. "It's no secret our back's against the wall, down 3-2," point guard Chris Paul told reporters after scoring 28 points. "Fortunately we've got a lot of guys in the locker room who had to do this a couple of years ago. We've got to do what we've got to do." The loss of power forward Blake Griffin (toe) was magnified further when Marreese Speights tallied one point while starting in Griffin's place.
ABOUT THE JAZZ (54-33 SU, 40-43-4 ATS, 44-43 O/U): The Utah Jazz haven't won a playoff series in seven years and they look to end the drought when they host the Los Angeles Clippers in Friday's Game 6 of the Western Conference first-round playoff series. The Jazz hold a 3-2 series lead and are aiming to close out their first postseason series since downing the Denver Nuggets in a first-round clash in 2010. Veteran swingman Joe Johnson averaged 9.2 points in the regular season but has increased that to 18.2 while leading a young squad toward a second-round clash with the top-seeded Golden State Warriors. Johnson has been a force in a series in which the Jazz didn't have standout center Rudy Gobert (knee) for nearly all of three consecutive games and All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward (food poisoning) was a non-entity in Game 4 before being sent home at halftime. Hayward was back on his game in Tuesday's victory as he contributed 27 points and eight rebounds while Gobert recorded 11 points, 11 rebounds, five steals and two blocked shots. "We have to treat this one as a must-win," Hayward told reporters. "We want to close it out in Salt Lake City. We definitely don't want to come back (to Los Angeles) for Game 7."
LINE HISTORY: The Jazz opened as six-point home favorites as they look to finish off the Clippers at home and that point spread came down slightly to -5.5 on Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 192 and was bet up slightly to 192.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Clippers - PF B. Griffin (Out For Season, toe), C D. Stone (Out Indefinitely, knee).
Jazz - SG A. Burks (Doubful, knee).
TRENDS:
* Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 13-3 in Clippers last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Utah.
Celtics face Bulls in Game 6
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
A rejuvenated Celtics team looks to eliminate the Bulls in Game 6 on the road on Friday.
Things looked grim for the No. 1 Boston Celtics after the first two games of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series with the No. 8 seed Chicago Bulls, as the Celtics dropped each of them at home—and the second wasn’t even close. Boston has since bounced back, though, taking the next two games in Chicago and then winning on their home court for the first time in these playoffs in Game 5, pulling away in the fourth quarter for a 108-97 (BOS -7.5). The Celtics did it despite shooting only 9-of-40 from three-point range, a series of misses that included many wide open looks. They also matched the Bulls with 45 rebounds in the game, a category that plagued them in their early-series losses. Over the last five seasons, road favorites averaging at least 83 shots per game but getting outrebounded by at least three boards per game (BOS) are 79-45 ATS. In the same timeframe, games involving a home team with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 that has gone Under the total by at least 18 combined points in their last three games are 97-53 Under against totals of at least 200. Chicago PG Rajon Rondo has been out since Game 3 and he remains out for Game 6.
Since the series began, Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas (25.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.0 SPG; all player stats in playoffs), has had to play through grief as he mourns the sudden death of his younger sister. He has played remarkably well considering that fact, still regularly delivering the scoring that has carried this Boston team all season. He scored 24 points in Game 5, and also delivered some surprisingly effective defensive plays in crunch time. He’s only shooting 21% on heavy-volume three-point shooting in this series, suggesting his production could jump significantly if he can find the range from deep. SG Avery Bradley (14.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.6 SPG) scored a playoff career-high 24 points in Game 5 to go along with six rebounds. He carried the offense early on by shooting 8-of-13 in the first half. He has been strong defensively on Bulls star Jimmy Butler, despite giving up a good amount of size. C Al Horford (16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.4 SPG) was also excellent on Wednesday with an impressive line of 21 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. C Kelly Olynyk (9.4 PPG, 1.2 SPG) chipped in a playoff career-high 14 points. SF Jae Crowder (12.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG) has struggled mightily on offense this series, shooting 22.2% from three, which is where he made his living during the regular season. PF Amir Johnson (3.7 PPG) was a DNP-CD in Games 4 and 5 and likely won’t be seen for the rest of this series.
Thriving when getting help from unlikely sources in the series’ first two games, Butler (22.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG) appears to now be struggling to carry the weight of this undermanned Chicago offense. He scored 33 points in Game 4 largely thanks to earning 23 free throw attempts, but he shot only one free throw in Games 3 and 5 combined and scored 14 points in each of those games. If the Bulls want to pull off a win in Game 6, he’ll likely need to score 25+ to make it happen—either that, or some of the aforementioned unlikely sources will need to step back up. PF Bobby Portis (7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) scored 19 points in Game 1, but has only averaged 4.0 PPG in his four games since. SF Paul Zipser (7.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG) had 16 points in Game 2 and 10 points in Game 3, but he only scored five total points between Games 4 and 5. PF Nikola Mirotic (9.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG) can damage the Celtics if he’s hitting from three, but his 28.1% mark on the series won’t cut it. As far as bright spots, C Robin Lopez (13.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and SG Dwyane Wade (17.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 BPG) have had great series. Lopez is shooting 67.4% from the floor, and his size advantage in the post has forced the Celtics to crash the defensive glass, thereby limiting their transition opportunities. Wade nearly notched a triple-double in Game 5 with 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Admittedly, his defense leaves something to be desired at this point in his career.