NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, December 30th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Chicago lost its last five road games; they’re 5-7 as road underdogs (0-4 in last four). Under is 7-1-1 in Bulls’ last nine games. Indiana lost its last four games, is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight; Pacers are 6-5 as home favorites. Under is 5-2-2 in their last nine games. Bulls won six of last eight games with Indiana; under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Chicago lost three of last four visits to Indiana (1-3 vs spread).
Brooklyn lost six of last seven games but covered four of last six; they covered three of last four road tilts. Three of Nets’ last four games stayed under. Washington is 8-3 in its last 11 games; they’re 8-5 as home favorites. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Wizards won six of last seven games with Brooklyn; last four series games went over the total. Nets lost three of last four visits here (1-3 vs spread).
Heat lost six of last seven games; they’re 8-5 as road underdogs, 4-1-1 vs spread if they played night before. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Boston won six of last eight games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as a home favorite. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Celtics won their last five games with Miami; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Heat lost by 12-10 points in their last two visits to Beantown.
Detroit lost six of last seven games, is 4-8 as road underdog. Under is 8-4-1 in their last thirteen games. Atlanta is 1-6 vs spread in game following its last seven wins; they’re 0-7-1 vs spread in last eight home games. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Hawks are 6-3 in last nine games with Detroit; road team won four of last five series games. Five of last six series games went over. Teams split last six series games in this building.
Milwaukee lost four of last six road games; favorites are 10-3 vs spread in their road tilts. Four of Bucks’ last five games went over total. Minnesota lost three of its last four games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Bucks won last four games with Minnesota, winning by 17-10 points in last two played here. Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games.
New York lost its last four road games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine road games. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. New Orleans won its last three games; they’re 4-8 as home favorites. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans’ last five home games. Knicks are 5-3 in last eight games with New Orleans, but they lost by 11-8 points in last two visits to Bourbon Street; under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Injury-riddled Clippers lost last four games; they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. Last four LA games stayed under the total. Rockets are 13-2 in last 15 games, 5-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Clippers won last two games with Houston after losing previous five series games; LA lost four of last five games in this building. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Portland lost 10 of last 12 games; they’re 3-9 as road underdogs. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. San Antonio won/covered seven of last eight games; they won last six home games, covering last five. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Spurs won their last four games with Portland (3-1 vs spread); Blazers lost last three visits here, by 14-13-8 points. Six of last eight series games went over total.
Philly lost five of last six games (1-5 vs spread); they’re 5-7 as a road underdog. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Denver won five of its last seven games; they’re 5-6 as home favorites. Under is 2-0-1 in their last three games. 76ers lost last three games with Denver but won two of last three visits here; visitor won five of last seven series games. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.
Mavericks are 4-3 in last seven games, 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as road underdogs. Under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Golden State won eight of last nine games; they are 5-1 vs spread in last six home games. Under is 9-3 in last twelve games. Warriors won last four games and nine of last ten vs Dallas; five of last six series games went over total. Mavericks lost last five visits to Oakland (1-4 vs spread).
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Favorites fared well in the NBA on Thursday night by posting a 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS mark. Home teams won five of the six contests, including the Suns (+8½), who knocked off the Raptors, 99-91. Cleveland (-6) held off Boston at home, 124-118 to win its eighth consecutive game at Quicken Loans Arena, while dropping the Celtics to 1-7 SU as a road underdog this season.
The only road team to come out on top last night was the Mavericks (+4), who rallied to beat the Lakers at Staples Center, 101-89 to improve to 3-1 in its past four road games since starting the season 1-13 on the highway.
Game of the Night – Clippers at Rockets
These two Western Conference rivals meet up for the first time this season as the Clippers have gone backwards of late by losing four straight games. Los Angeles (22-12 SU, 16-18 ATS) continues to play without Blake Griffin, while Chris Paul returned to the lineup on Wednesday after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Paul’s appearance in the lineup didn’t help matters for Los Angeles, who fell to New Orleans, 102-98 as 1½-point road favorites, in spite of the point guard scoring 21 points. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS the last 10 games overall, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark the past five road contests.
Houston (24-9 SU, 22-11 ATS) began December on fire by winning 10 consecutive games, but the Rockets are 3-2 in their past five since that hot streak. The Rockets are still in second place of the Southwest division behind the Spurs (26-6) in spite of a 13-2 record in December, while coming off Tuesday’s road blowout of the Mavericks, 123-107 as five-point favorites. The Rockets own a solid 11-3 record at Toyota Center this season with two of those losses to the Spurs.
Last season, the Rockets captured the first two matchups against the Clippers, but Los Angeles won the final two games. Houston and L.A. split both meetings at Toyota Center, as the Rockets are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five home matchups with the Clippers.
Head-to-Head Trends
Bulls at Pacers (-4, 202½) – These two Central division rivals meet for the final time in the regular season as the home team has won all three matchups. Chicago held off Indiana at the United Center, 90-85 on Monday, but the Pacers dominated the Bulls at home in early November, 111-94. Each of the past five matchups at Bankers Life Fieldhouse have finished UNDER the total.
Nets at Wizards (-8, 222) – Washington has captured the past four meetings in this series since the start of last season, including a 118-113 comeback victory at Barclays Center earlier this month. The Wizards have lit up the Nets recently by scoring at least 111 points in each of the last four matchups, with all four games sailing OVER the total.
Heat at Celtics – Boston has taken care of Miami twice this season with both victories coming at the American Airlines Arena. The Celtics have won five straight in the series, while limiting the Heat to 95 points or fewer in four of the victories.
Pistons at Hawks (-3½, 201) – Detroit has gone through a December to forget (5-9), but began the month with a 121-85 blowout of Atlanta at Philips Arena. The Pistons have won in two of their past three visits to Atlanta, as the road team is 4-1 in the past five meetings. The OVER has hit in four of the last five matchups, as the winning team has posted at least 112 points in the past three meetings.
Bucks at Wolves (PK, 209) – These two teams that share a state border face each other for the first of two matchups this season. Milwaukee has won four straight games against Minnesota, including a pair of double-digit triumphs last season. In the Bucks’ past two visits to the Target Center, Milwaukee has limited Minnesota to 85 and 86 points, as three of the previous four games have finished UNDER the total.
Knicks at Pelicans – These two teams have split their season series the last two years with the home squad going 4-0. Both contests last season were low-scoring affairs with each game finishing UNDER the total, as New Orleans knocked off New York, 99-91 as 5½-point home underdogs.
Blazers at Spurs – San Antonio is riding a four-game winning streak against Portland since the start of last season, including a 110-90 blowout at the Moda Center last Friday night. The Spurs have captured four of the last five home matchups with the Blazers, while Portland has lost seven consecutive road games overall.
76ers at Nuggets (-11, 211½) – Denver goes for the season sweep of Philadelphia after beating the Sixers earlier this season, 106-98 as four-point favorites. Philadelphia has covered in its past four trips to the Pepsi Center as an underdog of 8½-points or more, including in a 104-103 buzzer-beating loss this past March.
Mavericks at Warriors (-18, 212) – Golden State has dominated Dallas the last three seasons with an impressive 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark. The Warriors routed the short-handed Mavericks earlier this season, 116-95 as 18½-point favorites, as each of the past three meetings at Oracle Arena have sailed OVER the total.
Bucks, Timberwolves meet on Friday night
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Some of the league’s most exciting young players meet up Friday night in Minneapolis.
The Milwaukee Bucks got a big win on Wednesday night, clobbering division rival Detroit 119-94 on the road (MIL +3.5). The Bucks improved to 15-15 with the win (14-16 ATS), and currently sit in eighth place in a packed Eastern Conference—Chicago and Atlanta are both 16-16, and the Knicks are 16-15. Milwaukee outplayed Detroit in almost every facet of the game, outshooting them from the floor 57.1% to 44.3% and 50% to 25% from three-point range. They forced 11 Pistons turnovers and only committed seven of their own, and scored 15 fast break points while only allowing four to Detroit. The Bucks are back in action Friday night, taking to the road to play a Minnesota team that could be considered their Western Conference counterpart in that they similarly have loads of young talent. Minnesota is a disappointing 10-22 this season (13-19 ATS), putting them in last place in the Northwest Division and 13th of the 15 teams in the West. They lost for the third time in four games on Wednesday night, losing 105-103 on the road to the sub-.500 Denver Nuggets (MIN +4). The Timberwolves outrebounded Denver and forced nearly as many turnovers as they committed, but were outshot from the field 51.9% to 44.7%. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off of wins as a road underdog (MIL) are 109-172 ATS. On the other hand, road favorites off a win of 10 or more points over a division rival that are playing their third road game in five days (MIL) are 24-2 ATS since 1996. PF Mirza Teletovic is questionable to play in Friday night’s game due to a concussion.
The Bucks have the NBA’s 11th-most efficient offense, scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is also on the edge of the top third of the league, ranking 10th with a defensive efficiency rating of 106 points allowed per 100 possessions. Averaging 95.9 possessions per 48 minutes, they play with the NBA’s 18th-fastest pace. The man who pushes that tempo? SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (23.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.8 BPG), who is effectively the team’s point guard despite standing 6-foot-11. The Greek Freak leads his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks; he’s 15th in the league in scoring, fifth in steals and, among small forwards, first in rebounding. He also attempts the league’s ninth most free throws at 7.7 a game and makes 79.1% of them. He is on a nine-game streak of scoring at least 20 points, and he had a season-high 39 against the Wizards on Dec. 23. With SG Khris Middleton, the team’s leading scorer last year, expected to miss most of this season, the Bucks needed another scorer to step up. Third-year PF Jabari Parker (20.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has done so emphatically, living up to his status as a former No. 2 overall pick. He had 31 against the Pistons on Wednesday. No one else on the team averages 10 PPG; C Greg Monroe (9.7 PG, 6.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG), SG Tony Snell (8.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and SF Michael Beasley (8.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are the closest. Monroe only sees the floor 19.6 minutes per game and Snell has a concerningly low Player Efficiency Rating of 9.2. Rookie SG Malcolm Brogdon (7.9 PPG, 3.3 APG, 43.8 3P%) is already a strong perimeter defender and has been a pleasant surprise on offense.
Averaging 109 points per 100 possessions, the Timberwolves have the ninth-most efficient offense in the NBA. The problem is their defense, which is the fourth worst in the league with an efficiency rating of 111.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. They play a relatively slow pace at 94.6 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in NBA). While their record this season has been worse than they hoped, their young talent remains just as promising as it was a year ago. They still appear to have a future MVP candidate on their hands in C Karl-Anthony Towns (22.0 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG). The recently-turned 21-year old Towns is eighth in the league in rebounding and leads all NBA centers in scoring. He has shown a variety of ways in which he can dominate this season. On Nov. 30, he had a 47-point, 18-rebound game against the Knicks that terrified any opposing GMs planning on competing for titles in 2018 and beyond. And on Wednesday against the Nuggets, he responded to double- and triple-teams in the post by notching his first career triple-double with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Scoring in almost equal amounts as Towns are fellow young guns SF Andrew Wiggins (21.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and SG Zach LaVine (21.0 PPG, 40.8 3P%). Together, they form one of only three NBA trios with three players averaging over 20 points per game. LaVine hit seven threes against the Kings on Dec. 23 to put up a career-high 40 points. PF Gorgui Dieng (10.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG) helps Towns defend the paint and the glass, and PG Ricky Rubio (7.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) runs the offense. Rubio’s 7.4 points per game are easily a career low, and his 7.2 assists per game are narrowly a career low.