Game of the Day: Spurs at Suns
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns (+1.5, 209.5)
The San Antonio Spurs look to finish the nine-game rodeo road trip in style when they wrap up the annual excursion against the Phoenix Suns on Friday. San Antonio is 6-2 on the trip to improve its NBA-best road mark to 22-7 and they resumed play after the All-Star break with back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers despite the absence of All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Phoenix stands sixth in the Western Conference and is 18-9 at home.
Backup guard Patty Mills has been a force with Parker out and averaged 27 points against the Clippers and Trail Blazers to raise his average to 21 over the past seven games. He’s doing what Tony usually does in taking over in that fourth quarter,” swingman Danny Green said, aware that Mills scored 29 fourth-quarter points in the two victories. The Suns are 11 games above .500 to equal a season best and have defeated the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics since play resumed.
LINE HISTORY: Phoenix opened as a 1.5-point favorite but action on the Spurs flipped that spread to Suns +1.5. The total has climbed from 208.5 to 209.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-12.5) - Suns (-8.3) + Home Court (-3.0) = Spurs -1.2
INJURY WATCH: Spurs - Kawhi Leonard (Prob - hand), Tim Duncan (Ques - rest), Aron Baynes (Ques - knee), Tony Parker (Out - hand). Suns - Eric Bledsoe (Out - knee).
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Not sure which stat to put more stock into: A 2-11 SU record versus .600 or better competition (both wins vs. the Clippers) or an 16-6 SU record without Tony Parker the last two seasons." - Covers Expert Bryan Power.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Expect Phoenix to be about a 1-point favorite. Also expect us to need the Spurs. They have looked great on their current road trip despite not having Tony Parker." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.
ABOUT THE SPURS (40-15 SU, 27-28 ATS, 33-21 O/U): Small forward Kawhi Leonard is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past 13 games due to a broken finger. Leonard was averaging 11.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 steals prior to his injury and San Antonio also missed his ability to shut down opposing forwards. The Spurs got center Tiago Splitter (shin) back against Portland and veteran guard Manu Ginobili (hamstring) recently returned as well. Parker is sidelined with injuries to his shin, groin, hand and back.
ABOUT THE SUNS (32-21 SU, 35-17-1 ATS, 29-23 O/U): Guard Gerald Green continues to excel as the fill-in starter with Eric Bledsoe (sidelined). Green is averaging 26 points over the last four games, including a career-best 36-point outing against Denver on Tuesday. Phoenix is 11-4 this season when Green scores 20 or more points and the journeyman is averaging 16.3 points in his 35 starts. Green has made multiple 3-pointers in five straight games and nine of the last 11.
TRENDS:
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix.
* Spurs are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
* Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 64 percent of bets on Spurs -1.5 and 64 percent of bets on Over 209.5.
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Pelicans at Bobcats
New Orleans: 23-30 SU, 23-27-3 ATS
Charlotte: 25-30 SU, 31-22-2 ATS
The Bobcats are quietly playing well of late and making a push towards the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte pulled off a home-and-home sweep of Detroit, winning both games by double-digits, including Wednesday's 116-98 rout as 2½-point favorites. The Bobcats have covered seven of their past nine games, including each of the last three at Time Warner Cable Arena. Steve Clifford's club is playing with revenge on Friday, as the Bobcats were run out by the Pelicans back in November, 105-84.
The Pelicans fell apart late in Wednesday's home setback to the Knicks, the third loss in the last four games. New Orleans has held its own of late on the highway, winning four of its past seven road contests, including outright underdog victories at Detroit, Cleveland, and Memphis. Monty Williams' team has fared well on the road off a home loss this season, posting a 4-2 SU/ATS record in this situation.
Cavaliers at Raptors
Cleveland: 22-33 SU, 25-30 ATS
Toronto: 29-25 SU, 32-21-1 ATS
All of the sudden, the Cavaliers have turned the corner, winning and covering six consecutive games following a six-game skid. Cleveland has beaten only one above .500 team in this stretch (Memphis), but the Cavs are taking care of their business on the road with three straight victories on the highway. Mike Brown's club picked up wins on back-to-back nights against the 76ers and Magic, while limiting each of their last five opponents to 99 points or less.
The Raptors saw their three-game winning streak evaporate in Wednesday's two-point setback to the Bulls. Since winning six in a row at home, Toronto is just 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS the last seven games at the Air Canada Center, which includes losses to the Clippers and Lakers. Toronto and Cleveland are meeting for the first time this season, as the two teams split four matchups last season, while the 'under' cashed three times.
Clippers at Grizzlies
Los Angeles: 37-19 SU, 31-25 ATS
Memphis: 30-23 SU, 24-28-1 ATS
The Clippers embark on a three-game road trip that starts at FedEx Forum in a rematch of last season's first round playoff series with the Grizzlies. After dropping the first two games, Memphis roared back to win four straight and ultimately advance to the Western Conference Finals. This season, the road team has claimed each of the first two meetings, with the Clippers dominating the Grizzlies, 101-81 on December 5 as short away favorites.
Los Angeles will try to rebound after getting chased by San Antonio in Tuesday's 113-103 home defeat, the fifth 'over' in the last six games for the Clippers. Doc Rivers' defense has been ripped up of late, allowing at least 105 points in five of the past six contests, while losing each of their previous two road games at Denver and Golden State. Memphis is riding a three-game hot streak after holding off New York on Tuesday, 98-93, but the Grizzlies are just 2-5 ATS the last seven contests. In the role of a home underdog, the Grizzlies own a 2-6 ATS mark, with the only straight-up victory coming against the Rockets last month.
Spurs at Suns
San Antonio: 40-15 SU, 27-28 ATS
Phoenix: 32-21 SU, 35-17 ATS
The Spurs wrap up their annual Rodeo Road Trip, which spans nearly three weeks every February. San Antonio hasn't disappointing, putting together a 6-2 ATS and 5-3 SU record on this nine-game swing, which includes impressive victories over the Clippers and Blazers in the underdog role. Tony Parker remains out for the Spurs, while Tim Duncan will miss his second consecutive game as the veteran forward will get another night off to end the road trip.
The Suns continue to be one of the huge surprises in the NBA this season, but Phoenix still hasn't figured out how to beat San Antonio. In two meetings this season, the Suns have lost by a combined 10 points, including a 108-101 home setback in mid-December, the fourth consecutive home loss to the Spurs since 2012. Jeff Hornacek's team has split their last six games at U.S. Airways Center, but the Suns have won seven of their past 10 home contests against Western Conference competition.
NBA Odds and Picks
By: David Purdum
Sportingnews.com
Overreacting to the San Antonio Spurs’ ever-changing lineup and injury report has been a recipe for wagering disaster.
Gregg Popovich just beat the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers with a makeshift lineup of backups. It’s almost like he’s toying with other coaches, demoralizing them with an “I’ll beat you with these guys” attitude.
Who knows who he’ll throw out there Friday at Phoenix (9 p.m. ET). But as long as Popovich is on the sidelines, it may not matter.
With Tim Duncan and Tony Parker sitting out, the Spurs (39-15 SU, 27-28 ATS) got 29 points from Patty Mills in a 111-109 win over the Trail Blazers, who are also banged-up, Wednesday. On Tuesday, Duncan played, but Parker and Kawhi Leonard both sat. Leonard has been out for a month, but is expected to return Friday against Phoenix.
This will be last of the Spurs’ nine-game road trip. They are 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread on their two-week road swing. San Antonio is 17-12 ATS on the road this season.
Popovich said Tuesday that Parker is out indefinitely with an array of injury issues. Duncan sat for rest against the Trail Blazers and could be back tonight.
Line: San Antonio -1, Total 209.5
The surprising Suns, at 33-17-3 ATS, have been the best bet in the NBA, but they’ve struggled in their most recent meetings with the Spurs. Phoenix is 2-8 straight-up and 3-6-1 against the spread in their last 10 against San Antonio.
The Spurs have already beaten the Suns twice this season, 108-101 in December in Phoenix, and 99-96 at home in the first week of the season. Parker missed the December game. The Spurs covered as 3.5-point road favorites.
The Suns are 15-10 ATS at home on the season.
Phoenix has since lost point guard Eric Bledsoe, who had 15 points, seven assists, five rebounds and four steals in the December game against the Spurs. Bledsoe injured his knee two weeks later and has missed the last 23 games. The Suns are 12-10-1 ATS without him.
Phoenix is coming off a 100-94 home win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. The Suns had six players score in double-figures and got a big contribution from its bench, which outscored the Celtics’ reserves 37-21.
The Linemakers' lean: The Spurs have won both meetings against the Suns this year (1-1 ATS), but won't have Tony Parker for this game. However, they get a big boost as Kawhi Leonard is expected to return to the lineup, and while we shouldn't expect Leonard to be at full strength, it could be argued that he is the most important player on the team. With him out of the lineup, the Spurs have been just okay; with him, they are elite. The Spurs have won and covered their last three games coming into tonight, and this is the final of a long and grueling nine-game road trip. Look for the Spurs to win and carry the momentum home.
Friday NBA betting notes
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls (-7, 192.5) - The Nuggets, who won at Milwaukee 101-90 on Thursday, are 2-6 ATS on the second half of back-to-backs this season. Before last night's cover, Denver had failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games.
Dallas Mavericks (-12, 213) at Philadelphia 76ers - There have been signs that the over-matched Sixers have lost interest during their active nine-game losing streak. Philly’s been especially bad at home, going 7-20 ATS, the worst home mark in the league.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (-7.5, 196.5) - For all their troubles, the Cavs are only three games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. They’ve won six consecutive games, straight-up and against the spread.
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons - Hawks PG Jeff Teague injured his ankle in a loss to the Wizards on Wednesday and is doubtful to play tonight at Detroit. The Hawks are plenty deep at the guard position, with Lou Williams and Shelvin Mack also capable of running the point. The Hawks have lost seven consecutive games straight-up and are 11-15-1 ATS on the road this season. … Thirty-eight of the Pistons’ 54 games have gone OVER the total.