NBA Betting News and Notes Friday, June 10

NBA Knowledge

Cleveland-Golden State

Warriors won seven of last eight games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Warriors are 3-5 on road in playoffs, with at least one road loss in each series- they're 3-1 in last four games in Cleveland, winning by 34-8-21 points. Cavaliers are 13-4 in playoffs, 8-0 at home. Cavs made 12-25 on arc in Game 3, had 17 offensive boards and shot 53% from floor. Four of last five Golden State games, three of last four Cavalier games stayed under the total. Curry/Thompson were combined 4-16 on arc in Game 3.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31

Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9

Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

Final: Favorites: 3-0, Over: 1-2

Armadillosports.com

NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview
Covers.com

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5, 206.5)

The Cleveland Cavaliers came home and completely changed the tone of the series in a dominating Game 3 performance and have a chance to even things up at two wins apiece when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday. The Cavaliers have a decision to make in regards to power forward Kevin Love, who sat out the previous game with a concussion and watched his team’s defense improve.

The absence of Love allowed Cleveland to go to a smaller lineup with LeBron James starting at power forward and Richard Jefferson sliding into the first unit, which solved some of the matchup problems the team was having with Warriors power forward Draymond Green in the first two games. “We definitely need him back," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of Love, though he would not commit to returning the former star to the starting lineup. "We miss his rebounding. We miss his post presence. We miss his 3-point shooting. So we definitely want him back, but he has to take the steps necessary to get himself back.” Golden State won the first two games by a combined 48 points despite reigning two-time MVP Steph Curry not playing up to his usual standards, and another sub-par effort in the Game 3 loss brought his struggles under the microscope. “I stick to my preparation and my mental strategy of staying within myself to get myself out of a hole, and not panicking and not over-complicating things and not trying to psych myself out,” Curry told reporters. “There’s a reason I have confidence out there, and it’s about how I prepare for games.”

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as two-point favorites at home for Game 4 following their very impressive victory Wednesday. By Thursday morning the line settled down a 1/2 point to -1.5. The total opened at 206.5 and also dropped a 1/2 point by Thursday morning to 206. Keep your eyes on the line history here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (87-15, 58-42-2 ATS, 53-48-1 O/U): Coach Steve Kerr called his team “soft” after Game 3, and the players seemed to agree with their coach when they spoke to the media the following day. “Because we were,” Curry responded when asked about the “soft” label. “They were more physical, they were more purposeful about what they were doing and it took us probably a quarter and a half to respond, and by that time it’s too late. You’re down 33-14 on the road in the finals, you’re not going to win many games with that kind of deficit.” Golden State shot 54.3 percent from the field and won the rebounding battle 52-47 in a 110-77 Game 2 win but slumped to 42.1 percent from the field while getting crushed 60-41 on the glass in Game 3.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (70-29, 47-49-3 ATS, 49-50 O/U): Cleveland was in desperation mode going into Game 3 and realizes that it needs to maintain that sense of urgency on Friday. “It's the same,” James told reporters. “It's the same mindset. We can't afford to go down 3-1 and go into their building and give them confidence going back. So it's a do-or-die game for us still.” The Cavaliers got a big boost in Game 3 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who outscored (30-29), collected more assists (eight to four) and committed far fewer turnovers (eight to two) than the Warriors’ “Splash Brothers” combination of Curry and Klay Thompson.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NBA Championship games.
* Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Early Consensus data is showing 59 percent of the public is siding with the Cavaliers as home favorites in Game 4. As for the total, Over is grabbing 68 percent of the action.

NBA Finals Game 4 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Golden State at Cleveland (-2/206.5)

After losing by 33 on Sunday in Oakland, the Cavaliers returned to their own time zone, got back inside their own building and ultimately won Game 3 by 30 points.

They’ve clawed back into the NBA Finals, but realistically, face another must-win.

Given Golden State’s supremacy this season, particularly in its own building, the Cavs want no part of going back to Cali down 3-1, which means their sense of urgency should again be through the roof. Can the Warriors match it now that they’ve seen what that looks like?

Head coach Steve Kerr consistently used the word “soft” to describe his team’s performance on Wednesday night. The Cavs scored the game’s first nine points, led 30-10 at one point in the first quarter and ultimately cruised 120-90 by breaking Golden State’s spirit in the third quarter as well.

The 63-point turnaround resoundingly flies in the face of this being the mismatch it appeared to be, but the Warriors remain heavily favored to win their second title. Sportsbook.ag has its series price set at Golden State -440 while Cleveland moves from +600 to +350. That places the Warriors at roughly 82 percent to repeat in spite of Game 3. The Cavs put together a phenomenal performance. Golden State played dreadfully. Oddsmakers immediately installed Cleveland as a two-point favorite to even up the NBA Finals, putting the total where they originally set it for Game 3 (206.5).

Now come the variables.

Klay Thompson was forced to leave for a sizeable first-half stretch with a thigh contusion after catching a Timofey Mozgov knee on a screen that he felt was “kind of dirty.” Mozgov, listed as a 7-foot-1, 275-pounder, did stick his knee out as Thompson was trying to chase Kyrie Irving through the lane, part of a series of moving screens that Golden State felt the Cavs were allowed to get away with because of the aggression and physicality displayed at the onset.

Thompson returned and scored 10 points, but shot 1-for-7 from 3-point range. He’ll play and receive treatment between now and Friday night’s tip-off, but there is likely to be some residual effects from the injury. If his movement or rhythm is bothered, that doesn’t bode well for him getting back on track.

Curry had a third-quarter flurry to end up with a cosmetic 19 points, actually his largest scoring output of the series, but Golden State’s failure at the onset was a product of his inability to gain separation by physically rising to the challenge. The Cavs beat him up, which is nothing new since he’s a marked man all season and managed to emerge as the NBA’s leading scorer (30.1). The unanimous MVP wasn’t himself.

“Unfortunately, it was all on me. They were playing aggressive defense and came out with a big punch, but I didn’t do anything about it or play my game,” said Curry, who has averaged just 16.0 points through the first three games. “For me to do what I need to do to help my team I have to play 100 times better, especially in that first quarter to try and control the game. I didn’t do it.”

Insisting he isn’t hurt, Curry vows to be more aggressive. Kerr insists he expect him to bounce back.

“Think about the OKC series, down 3-1, he hadn’t played well, look what he did the last three games,” said head coach Steve Kerr. “That’s Steph, he always responds. He has a huge heart, competitive as hell and extremely talented. I know how he will respond. He’ll play well. He always does.”

Draymond Green, who entered Game 3 as the betting favorite for Finals MVP honors, failed to properly motivate his team like he said he would. After putting that responsibility squarely on his own shoulders, he came up with a brutal game, scoring just six points while shooting 0-for-4 from 3-point range. LeBron James upstaged him on more than one occasion. Cleveland was consistently more physical.

Curry again got in foul trouble early, but opened cold and sloppy. When he was correctly whistled for two fouls in seven seconds to leave the game less than 10 minutes in, he did so knowing he’d failed miserably. He was 0-for-2 with two turnovers. Thompson was forced back to the locker room, but had already missed five shots, two free throws and turned it over once.

Conversely, James and Kyrie Irving were brilliant. They outscored the Splash Brothers 62-29, and the margin wasn’t really even that close since Curry got hot when the outcome was already decided. Tristan Thompson grabbed seven of his 13 rebounds on the offensive side of the ball, securing crucial extra possessions that helped stave off the Golden State’s comeback bid. His second double-double of the series marked his finest work this postseason. J.R. Smith, who was 2-for-7 from 3-point range in Oakland, shot 5-for-10 from beyond the arc, knocking down a few tightly-contested daggers to aid separation.

Richard Jefferson’s presence in the starting lineup seemed to mesh perfectly with everyone else, since he was as active as anyone. His work on defense helped Cleveland impose its will, which makes it logical to assume he would remain in the starting lineup even with Kevin Love expected to return from concussion suffered in Game 2. Love participated in practice Thursday and should officially be cleared after shootaround on Friday. Lue said he hadn’t thought about what he’d do yet when asked on Thursday afternoon, which means he isn’t ready to divulge anything until tip-off in order to leave Golden State in the dark.

The Warriors had targeted Love defensively in addition to Irving in order to gain a rhythm back in Oakland, but head coach Tyronn Lue refused to comment on the implication that Cleveland is better off without him. How the rookie head coach handles his rotation, specifically keeping James on Green at the onset of the game, should play a huge role in how Game 4 begins.

Beyond Golden State’s All-Star trio, the depth that fueled its first routs wasn’t there. Andrew Bogut often looked too slow to be out there, consistently finding himself out of position. Festus Ezeli got three minutes, and none of the big men provided much of a lift. The only Warriors who seemed to find a rhythm were Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Shaun Livingston.

“Something has to give in Game 4 between the Warriors and Cavaliers,” said VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Cleveland improved to 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home in the playoffs following the Game 3 blowout of Golden State, as seven of those victories have come by 10 points or more. Golden State has lost consecutive games just once this season, coming in the Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City in Games 3 and 4. In 18 games this postseason that were decided by at least 20 points, teams coming off such defeats haven't bounced back well by posting a 6-12 SU and 7-13 ATS record, as the Warriors are 1-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs in this situation.”

Homecourt advantage typically allows the role players and shooters to settle in better, but the discrepancy is cartoonish given what we’ve seen thus far in this series. Cleveland has a 112.4-90-point differential and averages 24 assists while shooting 45.8 from 3-point range at Quicken Loans Arena this postseason. We’ll see if its domination can continue against a Warriors squad that has gone 2-6 in Game 3 over the past two seasons but has gone 28-5, with a point differential of 10.2 (107.3-97.1) in all other contests.

Cavs try to even Finals
By Sportsbook.ag

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (87-15) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (70-29)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -2.0, Total: 206.5

The Cavaliers will be hoping to even up the series when they host the Warriors in Game 4 on Friday.

Golden State looked like it was heading towards a sweep over Cleveland after Games 1 and 2, but the Cavaliers responded in a big way in their first home game. The Cavs won 120-90 as 1.5-point favorites in Game 3, shooting 52.7% from the floor and holding the Warriors to just 42.1% shooting. It was a huge step forward for Cleveland, as Golden State had shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 54.3% in Game 2.

The Warriors aren’t going to hang their heads though. Golden State is a remarkable 11-3 ATS when revenging a loss versus an opponent this season and 21-8 ATS revenging a road loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons. The Warriors should be feeling confident heading into this one. The Cavaliers, however, are 19-8 ATS when playing only their second game in five days this season. They know they need to tie this thing up, so there will still be plenty of desperation when the ball tips on Friday.

The Warriors are at full strength heading into this one, but the Cavaliers do have PF Kevin Love (Concussion) listed on the injury report. He suffered a concussion in Game 2 that forced him to miss Game 3, but he is expected to get clearance in time to play in this one.

The Warriors looked like they were untouchable after Games 1 and 2 in this series, but they now find themselves in a tough situation in Game 4. Golden State can pretty much end this series by winning on the road on Friday, but a loss would mean that the teams would be tied heading back to Oracle for Game 5.

If the Warriors are going to win this game then PG Stephen Curry (24.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to play well. He has been absolutely nonexistent in this series, averaging just 16.0 PPG on 43.6% shooting from the floor and 40.0% shooting from three. He’s also averaging a miserable 5.0 TOPG in the series. Curry has lacked the quickness that he had during the regular season and a lot of that might have to do with him having a banged up knee. He will, however, need to overcome that and play like the superstar he is moving forward.

SG Klay Thompson (24.1 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) and PF Draymond Green (15.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) will also need to be a lot better for Golden State in Game 4. They combined to shoot just 6-for-21 from the field in Game 3 and the Warriors can’t have their top three players performing that poorly on Friday.

The Cavaliers are coming off of a momentum shifting victory on Wednesday and SF LeBron James (24.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) was unstoppable in that one. James had 32 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in 40 minutes of action in Game 3. He was 14-for-26 from the floor and will need to bring that same aggressiveness into this game on Friday. James is at his best when he is putting pressure on the defense, so he can’t be too satisfied with finding his teammates in this one.

It’d also be big if PG Kyrie Irving (23.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) goes off for Cleveland again on Friday. He had 30 points and eight assists in Game 3, badly outplaying Steph Curry on both ends of the floor. If he can continue to win that matchup then the Cavaliers just might be able to take control of this series.

The presence of PF Kevin Love (16.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG in playoffs) could be the most interesting story coming into this one. Cleveland played a lot better with Love off the floor in Game 3 and it’s possible that he will come off the bench on Friday. Love must knock down some shots from the outside in this game or Cleveland will be in worse shape with him on the floor.

Game 4 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

The NBA Finals continues on Friday with Game 4 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Quicken Loans Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-1 overall record for Game 3 and those winners produced over eight units of profit.

Chris David: 5-2 (+845)
Tony Mejia: 5-4 (+300)
Kevin Rogers: 4-4 (-365)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 4 below.

Chris David

2.5 units Over Stephen Curry Total Points 27½ (-115)

I'm going to ride the regular season MVP in not one but two props on Friday and they both coincide with one another. Even though he hasn't look great in any of the first three games in this series I expect him to be a lot more aggressive in Game 4. This prop comes down to minutes, and as long as he's on the court, you'll have a great shot to connect.

Kevin Rogers

2 Units – Under Klay Thompson Made 3-Pointers 3½ (Even)

Thompson continues to struggle from three-point range against the Cavaliers, coming off a 1-for-7 performance in the Game 3 blowout loss. In the Finals, Thompson has hit only 6-of-21 attempts from long distance, while hitting only one three-pointer in five of the last six Finals games against Cleveland.

2 Units – Under Tristan Thompson Rebounds 10½ (-115)

Thompson is coming off his eighth double-digit rebounding game of the playoffs, but the former University of Texas standout hasn’t been able to string many of these games together. Six of the first seven times after he grabbed at least 10 rebounds, Thompson failed to crack double-digits in the next game.

1 Unit – Under Kyrie Irving Points 24½ (-115)

Irving was fantastic in Game 3 following a pair of poor outcomes in the first two games of the series. The big question heading into tonight’s action is if the former top pick can capitalize off a 30-point performance on Wednesday. Irving has scored plenty of points in the playoffs, but depending on the role Kevin Love will play, that will take away shots from the Cleveland point guard.

Tony Mejia

2 Units LeBron James Over 18.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)

He's only topped this number once this series and only once in the six games against the Raptors, but should be a dynamo in this one, likely flirting with a triple-double if not notching one outright.

1.5 Units Stephen Curry Over 7.5 points in 1st quarter (-110)

The NBA's leading scorer this past season had a miserable opening quarter in Game 3, getting pushed around and being kept from getting to his spots. Physically, he didn't meet the challenge. He'll be ready and aggressive here.

1.5 Units Shaun Livingston Over 7.5 points for game (-110)

Speaking of getting to spots, the Warriors reserve guard can easily get to his and has been able to exploit matchups to the point where he's shooting 13-for-16 in the series. He's averaged just 6.0 points since his 20-point Game 1 breakout, so look for him to try and help guide the second unit offensively.