NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, June 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Warriors outscored Cleveland 11-0 over final 3:10 to win Game 3 on road, after winning first two Finals games by 22-19 points; Golden State is 15-0 in playoffs, 7-0 on road, also covering all seven road games— they won their last four games with Cleveland, by 35-22-19-5 points. Four of last six series games stayed under the total; under is 7-3-1 in last 11 series tilts. Warriors lost three of last five games in Cleveland, but can clinch second NBA title in three years here. Over is 6-1 in Warriors’ last seven games. Cavaliers are 5-2 at home in playoffs (2-5 vs spread)- six of those seven games went over.
Armadillosports.com
NBA Finals Game 4 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Golden State at Cleveland
In less than three minutes of action, Golden State ended the NBA Finals.
There's still going to be a Game 4 -- you're reading the preview for it -- but the thrill is gone. All intrigue was wiped out over the final 2:19 as the Warriors turned a six-point deficit into a 118-113 win by scoring the game's last 11 points on Wednesday.
Instead of cashing for backers as an outright winner, the underdog Cavs even handed the Warriors a win against the spread, failing to cover the 3.5-4 points when Kevin Love misfired on a 3-pointer to cap a disappointing ending. Golden State leads the series 3-0 and is one win away from its second championship in three years.
Either Friday night or back home on Sunday, the Warriors will close out a fantastic run. They've already made history with 15 consecutive wins this postseason, but are looking for perfection. That's never been accomplished in NBA history. The 2000-01 Lakers (15-1) and 1982-83 76ers (12-1) came closest.
Golden State stole Game 3 as much as Cleveland gave it away with careless possessions and foolish decisions with the game on the line. Kevin Durant's go-ahead pull-up 3-pointer over LeBron James with 45.3 seconds remaining will go down as the defining moment of these Finals, sealing his series MVP award. He scored 14 of his 31 points in the final quarter, including seven in the the closing 1:15.
"You can tell he knows this is his moment," head coach Steve Kerr said. "He's been an amazing player in this league for a long time, and he senses this is his time, his moment, his team."
Durant hasn't dominated James, but he's gotten the better of him in every game, particularly in key situations. He's averaging 34 points, 10 boards and six assists.
James is averaging a triple-double (32.0 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 10.3 apg), so it's not like he's pulling a disappearing act. Criticism over his decision to hit Kyle Korver for a corner 3-pointer instead of hunting a basket in the final minute or deferring to Kyrie Irving with Cleveland down only a point are incredibly lame. He made what he thought was the right decision at the time, like he always does.
Irving was isolated against Klay Thompson and settled for a difficult jumper instead of driving to the rim with the Cavs down 114-113. Korver also missed a shot he's plenty capable of making. James was blocked by Andre Iguodala with over 10 seconds left, stepped out of bounds upon recovering the ball and saw a great chance to win slip away.
The Cavs have proven they can play with the Warriors, this juggernaut being compared to the best teams that have ever been put together. In Oakland, they hung around for a half each time. Back home, they managed to do the same despite playing into Golden State's hands by operating at an acclerated tempo throughout the first half. Cleveland's third quarter was its best in this series as it won it 33-22, setting the stage for it to take a seven-point lead in the fourth.
That they seemingly had this game won when J.R. Smith hit his fifth 3-pointer with 3:09 left after surviving Golden State's Finals-record nine first-quarter 3-pointers tells you this is no mismatch. Irving scored 38 points and the Cavs managed to score enough points to win until it mattered most and they were bottled up. Tristan Thompson was again a no-show, going scoreless and grabbing just three boards over 23 minutes. Love missed eight of his nine shots. Deron Williams is 0-for-11 in the series. Cleveland can definitely play better and avoid a sweep.
The question now becomes whether it has enough fortitude to continue to fight when its situation looks so bleak. NBA teams that fall behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven are 0-126.
"Trying to erase a 3-0 deficit in any series is nearly impossible, but the chances in this series for Cleveland to come back against Golden State are basically nil," said VI NBA expert Kevin Rogers. "There have been only two sweeps in the last 20 NBA Finals (one with LeBron James losing to the Spurs in 2007), while eight of the last nine teams to take a 3-0 series lead in the Finals dating back to 1959 have pulled off the sweep. The only team to avoid a sweep down 3-0 (and actually win two games) was the 1996 Sonics, who lost in six games to Michael Jordan’s Bulls."
The air of resignation was evident following Game 3 with James commenting that while he's played against some great teams, he's never faced one that "had this type of firepower."
"I think it's just part of my calling to just go against teams in the midst of a dynasty," James elaborated on Thursday, an off day for the Cavs outside of media obligations since they chose not to practice. "This has been the best team in our league the last three years. They won a championship, and last year it was the greatest regular-season team we had played, probably one of the best postseason teams that everybody's ever seen as well, but we were just able to overome that."
This year, they won't. James was even commenting on future meetings, allowing himself to look ahead as a realist despite the fact that there's at least one more game to play. It will be interesting to see whether the Cavs can overcome a defeated mind set to give themselves a chance. Given how it lost, seeing the rug slip out from under it, doesn't bode well for Cleveland with just one day in between games. A hangover is possible, especially if the arena isn't buzzing like it was for tip-off of Game 3. Can the Cavs generate hope?
Even though Game 3 slowed down in the fourth quarter, both teams managed to make enough key shots late and the ‘over’ (227) connected.
The ‘over’ is now 2-1 in this series and the oddsmakers are leaning to another shootout on Friday as they sent out an opener of 228 ½ for Game 4.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David provides his thoughts on Wednesday’s game and what we could expect for Friday.
“As expected, the Cavaliers stayed with the same style of up-tempo play and it almost worked too. They couldn’t miss a shot in the third quarter and had 94 points headed into the fourth. Cleveland ran out of gas and only mustered up 19 points in the fourth quarter and they were held scoreless in the final three minutes of the game. Once again, the Cavs took more attempts than the Warriors from the field (90-83) and 3-point land (44-33). Of those attempts, Cleveland only managed 20 in the last quarter but 10 of them were from distance and that has to be questioned especially since they had the lead,” explained David.
He added, “Tyronn Lue was fortunate to be put into this position as Cavaliers coach and he did lead them to the title last season while catching plenty of breaks along the way. In this series, he’s been outclassed by both Steve Kerr and Mike Brown. I’m not sure if Lue will swallow his pride and try to slow the game down, like so many pundits have suggested. The only way Cleveland can win a game is by shooting a high percentage and hoping Golden State doesn’t show up offensively and I don’t see that happening. The Warriors are averaging 121 PPG in this series and nothing makes me believe they won’t get close to that number again on Friday. Golden State has a team total of 117 and that would be my lean on Friday.”
Golden State has now watched the ‘over’ go 11-4 in the playoffs and that includes a 6-1 mark to the ‘over’ on the road. Cleveland has seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 at home in the postseason and it’s only been able to hold one team under 100 and that came against the Celtics, who scored 99.
Savvy total bettors playing the gimmick wagers have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in the first quarter of this series and the first-half is 2-1 to the high side. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the second-half.
NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview: Warriors at Cavaliers
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (+6, 228.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers took their best shot and still fell short in Game 3 and now stand on the brink of elimination in the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers will try to begin a historic comeback from a 3-0 deficit and avoid starting the summer early when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 on Friday.
"I said it after we won the Eastern Conference finals that we're getting ready for a juggernaut," Cleveland star LeBron James told reporters of the Warriors. "It's probably the most, most firepower I've played in my career. I played against some great teams, but I don't think no team has had this type of firepower." That firepower allowed Golden State to overcome a six-point deficit in the final minutes of Wednesday's 118-113 triumph, capped by Kevin Durant's deep 3-pointer over James with 45 seconds to play. The Warriors improved to 15-0 in the postseason with the win and can become the first team in NBA history to sweep the postseason with a win on Friday. "I don't want to relax," Durant told reporters. "It's not over. This is a crazy game, anything can happen. I'm just trying to enjoy this moment, try not to look in the future or the past."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors quickly opened as 6.5-point road favorites following their thrilling comeback victory in Game 3, but that line was quickly adjusted to 6 late Wednesday night. The total opened at 227 and was bet up to 228.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand).
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-15 SU, 51-43-3 ATS, 43-54 O/U): Durant scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter on Wednesday and is averaging 34 points on 56.1 percent shooting - 52.4 percent from beyond the arc - in the series. "He took over," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Durant's Game 3 performance. "You can tell he knows this is his moment. He's been an amazing player in this league for a long time. He senses this is his time, his moment, his team." Durant isn't the only Warriors player enjoying a strong series as Stephen Curry continues to put the pain of last year's Finals loss in the rearview mirror by averaging 28.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and nine assists in the series.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-35 SU, 44-50-4 ATS, 58-39-1 O/U): Cleveland overcame a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Warriors in the Finals last spring but is aware that a tougher challenge exists this time around. "From a mental standpoint, there is no other option, other than to prepare for Game 4 as best you can. That's it," point guard Kyrie Irving told reporters. "This is as do or die as possible as I've ever faced in my career. So we understand what's at stake, our whole entire season. There's really no other decision, other than to leave it all out there." James is averaging 32 points on 55.4 percent shooting, 12.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists in the series and Irving adds an average of 27 points, but the rest of the team is struggling to find a scoring rhythm.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Cavaliers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 58 percent of users are siding with the home underdog Cleveland Cavaliers and 59 percent are on the Over.
NBA Finals Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Golden State vs Cleveland
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-6); Total set at 228
The Golden State Warriors – specifically Kevin Durant – performed their best during crunch time in Game 3 as they were able to go on a 11-0 run in the final three minutes to come back and get the W.
Golden State is now a perfect 15-0 SU in these NBA playoffs and are in prime position to hoist another championship trophy.
In the history of the NBA no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit (0-126 SU all time), including 0-12 SU in the Finals, so if Cleveland is going to repeat, they are going to have to do it in historic fashion.
First thing's first for the Cavs though, and that's win one game at home tonight to extend the series. It's not going to be easy by any means and with the Warriors wanting to set that historic mark of being perfect during an entire post-season, Golden State would love to close things out tonight.
As crushing as that loss in Game 3 was for Cleveland, they did do some great things throughout the game. Everyone will remember their 0-for-8 shooting down the stretch to enable the Warriors to come back and win, but LeBron was great as always, Kyrie Irving showed up in a big way, and they even got some significant contributions for the first time in this series from the likes of J.R Smith and Richard Jefferson.
There is still plenty of room for more improvement – specifically with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love – but the idea that Cleveland was able to play with a lead after the 1st quarter for the first time in this series proved to them that this Warriors team with “unlimited firepower” can be had if the Cavs play their best basketball.
They've got one home game tonight to try and extend their season, and even if they do end up coming a bit short and get swept, six points is way too much to give them in this spot.
Now, the majority of people who've watched this series will look at Golden State's 3-0 lead, their ability to shoot threes, and the addition of Kevin Durant this year and think this series is all but over.
It's tough to strongly argue against that given the 0-126 record for teams down 0-3 in the history of the NBA, but if Cleveland can get just one win tonight, maybe a touch of doubt starts to creep into Golden State's collective consciousness.
A SU win by the Cavs tonight would put them in the exact same spot they were a year ago after four games (down 3-1) and we all know what happened there.
Golden State has definitely been the better team in this series so far, but in a close-out game on the road against a desperate Cavs team, I've got a hard time believing it will be a relative blowout. Winning by 7 on the Cavs floor with the possibility of Cleveland having to watch Golden State celebrate is not a position I'd particularly be happy with laying those points. However, Golden State is a perfect 3-0 ATS in close out games in these playoffs already this year and their average margin of victory in those games has been 21.6 points.
That's the number those suggesting a play on Golden State tonight will routinely quote, and while that number is tough to ignore, there really isn't a comparison between Portland, Utah, and an injury-riddled San Antonio team to that of Cleveland, so don't think we the Warriors come close to that average margin of victory tonight.
Call it a hunch, call it stubbornness, call it whatever you want, but I do believe we will get at least one more game in this NBA Finals. Taking the six points is more then enough wiggle room there as a margin of error in that line of thought, as this line is simply a bit too inflated.
Best Bet: Cleveland +6
Warriors go for sweep over Cavs
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The Warriors look to complete a dominant 16-0 playoff run on Friday night.
If this year’s NBA Finals ends in a sweep, we’ll now be able to say that we got at least one good game out of it. After the Golden State Warriors stomped the Cleveland Cavaliers twice at home to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, most were just hoping that the Cavs could be competitive in Quicken Loans Arena. And while they couldn’t scratch out a win in Game 3, the Cavs at least put on a show, holding a lead late before ultimately falling 118-113 to Golden State. The Warriors covered the spread of -3, making them 3-0 ATS in this series in addition to 3-0 SU. The two teams combined to go Over the total of 226.5 by 4.5 points, meaning two of three games in this series have now gone Over the total. The series remains in Cleveland for Game 4 on Friday night, when the Cavaliers will look to avoid being the first victim of an NBA Finals sweep since they themselves dropped four straight to the Spurs 10 years ago. Over the last five seasons, underdogs that have allowed 105 points in three straight games (CLE) are 67-29 ATS against opponents coming off a win of six points or fewer. Since 1996, games involving a road team outscoring their opponents by 9+ games on the season (GSW) and a team coming off a game where the combined score reached 215 or higher are 57-28 Under against the total. Neither team has a player listed on the injury report for Game 4.
It’s very difficult to watch this Warriors team and not wonder if you’re watching the best team in the history of basketball, especially when PG Stephen Curry (28.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.9 SPG; all player stats are for playoffs) and SF Kevin Durant (27.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.4 BPG) are both firing all cylinders. That wasn’t the case often throughout the Warriors’ (dominant) regular season, but it certainly has been in this Finals. Durant’s addition to this team has made them near-unguardable, and he’s been lights-out in this series. He has scored over 30 points in all three games, with a dagger three-pointer in Game 3 giving his team the lead late and putting him up to 31 points for the night. He also had nine rebounds and is averaging over 10 per game for the series. He has also shot over 50% from the field in each game. Curry has been pretty much just as hot—he had 26 points, 13 rebounds(!), six assists and two steals in Game 3. He had a triple-double in Game 2, the first of his postseason career. One difference for the Dubs in G3 was the thrilling outing they got from SG Klay Thompson (15.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG), who dropped 30 (16 in the first quarter) after having been quiet for much of these playoffs. He was also good in Game 2 with 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting. PF Draymond Green (13.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.8 BPG) has picked up five fouls in each of the last two games.
To challenge a Warriors team that plays fast-paced basketball better than any team in recent memory (at least), many assumed the Cavaliers would counter with a grinding style of play reminiscent of the Timofey Mozgov, Matthew Dellavedova team that dragged the Warriors to six games in the Finals two seasons ago. The Cavs have completely subverted those expectations, choosing to play at their preferred up-tempo pace, a pace at which they play incredibly well—just not as well as Golden State. Naturally, SF LeBron James (32.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 7.6 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG) has been a force of nature in this series. In Game 3, he went off for 39 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Unfortunately, Cleveland seems lost without him on the floor. He played 46 minutes and was +7 on the night, and his team lost by five. When he couldn’t get up to challenge Durant’s three in the game’s final minute, it was clear he was exhausted. For most of the night, PG Kyrie Irving (25.0 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.2 SPG) was just as good, scoring 38 on the evening and keeping Cleveland in the game with brilliant solo scoring runs. He played 44 minutes, though, and his end-of-game shot selection was quite poor. PF Kevin Love (17.1 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG) mostly played well, grabbing 13 rebounds and six steals, but he shot a brutal 1-of-9 from the floor en route to nine points. SG J.R. Smith (6.6 PPG) finally showed up for the series, scoring 16 points on 10 shots.