Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
On Wednesday, Miami overcame a 27-point deficit in the third quarter and won their 24th consecutive game, beating Cleveland 98-95 on the road. Despite being down 21 at halftime, the Heat outscored the Cavaliers by 24 points (64-40) in the final two quarters and actually led by nine points late in the fourth. Cleveland made a late rally and had a chance to take the lead but they came up short. The Cavaliers covered as 11-point home ‘dogs but the Heat managed to lock up another second-half cover as 13½-point favorites.
It was the second straight game that Miami rallied from a halftime deficit after the club beat Boston 105-103 at TD Garden on Monday. Even though the Heat didn’t cover the point-spread (5.5) in Monday’s win either, they still own a 14-10 record versus the number during this win streak.
Offshore sportsbook Bovada.lv has released updated Heat props on their current winning streak.
The current ‘over/under’ on the streak is set at 29, with bettors laying -120 on either option.
Miami will play its next two at home, against Detroit on Friday and Charlotte on Sunday.
After the short homestand and assuming the Heat don’t get shocked, the streak will be up to 26 and play four straight on the road starting Monday at Orlando. The Magic are very young and they don’t play a lick of defense but they score bunches and Miami will be playing on no rest. However, make a note that Miami is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS when facing back-to-back spots this season.
After Orlando, a tough road test is on tap for Wednesday at Chicago. If they beat the Bulls, they head to New Orleans and a victory over the Hornets would extend the streak to 29, which takes us back to the prop at Bovada.lv.
Bettors would be gearing up for a Mar. 31 battle at San Antonio, who are currently the top seed in the Western Conference. A road win over the Spurs would push the streak to 30 and closer to the NBA record of 33 straight wins set by the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1971-72 season.
Those believing Miami will top that number can get down at Bovada.lv as well. The offshore outfit has 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) on the Heat that they will set the NBA record of 34 straight wins.
After the Spurs, Miami hosts the Knicks, visits Charlotte and hosts Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the Bucks game would be No. 34.
"The Heat are always a heavily bet team and due to their current streak, their spreads are reflecting this. I wouldn't say they are more heavily bet on a daily basis on the spread. However, even at 11/10, they are still seeing the highest volume of money wagered on them to win the title," said Bovada Sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley said.
If they beat the Bucks at home on Apr. 9 and break the record, the Heat will only have five regular season games remaining. Bovada.lv has odds of 10/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,000) that Miami will close the season with 39 consecutive wins and if you look at the schedule, it’s very doable.
The Heat opened as a 16-point home favorite over Detroit on Friday and you could argue that the number is too low. The Pistons enter this contest with nine straight wins and the average loss has been by 17.5 points per game during this skid. Detroit did beat Miami 109-99 on Dec. 28 but the Heat have won eight of the last 10 meetings.
Along with this game, there are 10 other contests on Friday’s board and the majority of them are meaningless but you can still wager on them. With that being said, here’s my quick handicap on the entire card.
I personally like to play totals in the NBA and after watching the ‘under’ go 11-3 the past two nights, I’m looking for things to balance out tonight. Not to mention, the ‘under’ went 11-5 in Thursday’s NCAA Tournament action too.
New York at Toronto: Revenge game for the Knicks, who have dropped all three meetings against the Raptors this season. Still, New York lacks depth right now and is a tough team to back.
Milwaukee at Indiana: This is the only matchup tonight that features two playoff teams going head-to-head. Home team has won and covered the first three encounters this season.
Oklahoma City at Orlando: The Thunder have dropped two in a row so losing three would be surprising. OKC just beat Orlando 117-104 last Friday at home but didn’t cover the heavy wood (-17.5). Including that loss, Magic have dropped five straight. Little hesitant to back the ‘over’ here even though last week’s game was a wire-to-wire shootout.
Portland at Atlanta: Nice road win by the Trail Blazers last night at Chicago (99-89). With Portland playing on no rest and knowing the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight between the pair, makes you lean ‘under’ here tonight but an opener of 200 seems high for a reason.
Memphis at New Orleans: Possible home ‘dog look with the Hornets, who just surprised the Celtics on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are much better than New Orleans and another ugly win seems likely here.
Cleveland at Houston: I never back teams off bad losses and the Cavaliers left it all on the line Wednesday against the Heat. Ever since the trade, the Rockets attack is sluggish and total players have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight and seven of the last 10. The pace is still high but losing Douglas, Morris and Patterson has hurt the outside shooting. It’s not smart to lay double digits with Houston, who is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.
Boston at Dallas: After watching the Celtics lose to the Hornets on Wednesday, it’s hard to back this team on the road (12-21 SU, 12-19 ATS). Dallas has dropped two in a row at home and will be looking to avenge a 117-115 overtime loss at Boston earlier this season.
Utah at San Antonio: No early number because the Spurs point guard Tony Parker (ankle) could return. The Jazz are in a tailspin right now and they just can’t score consistently. In the last 10, the club is 3-7 and two of the losses came against the Pistons and Bobcats.
Minnesota at Phoenix: You would expect both teams to roll the ball out here and just run up and down the court. The Timberwolves playing are playing on no rest after losing to Sacramento (97-100) last night. Phoenix is off a humbling loss to Washington after beating the L.A. Lakers two nights earlier. Honestly, you shouldn’t bet on this game.
Washington at L.A. Lakers: No overnight line due to the Lakers’ health issues. Kobe Bryant (ankle) is expected to play and Pau Gasol (foot) might return as well. Lakers have been a bully at home recently and anything but a win would be surprising for them.
Friday's NBA Betting Notes
By Covers.com
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors (-1, 191.5)
One of the teams New York has not been able to solve is Toronto, which has won the first two meetings this season and three in a row overall. The Raptors defeated the Knicks 92-88 at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 13 and scored a two-point win in a rematch at Air Canada Centre nine days later. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic (+13, 207.5)
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be trying to avoid matching a season-high three-game losing streak when they visit the lowly Orlando Magic. Orlando continues to limp toward the finish line, having absorbed five straight defeats during a grueling stretch that features seven straight games against teams that are currently in the playoff mix. Oklahoma City has won three straight and six of seven against Orlando. The over is 14-3 in the Magic’s last 17 games vs. Western Conference foes.
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-8.5, 191)
Milwaukee has scored 94 or fewer points in three of its last five games after averaging 109.7 over the previous seven straight outings. The Bucks scored a season-low 80 points when losing by 15 on Jan. 5 in their first visit to Indiana. Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, 200)
Atlanta has won seven of the last eight meetings, including a 95-87 victory in Portland on Nov. 12. Portland has lost four straight in Atlanta and cracked 90 points once - in an overtime loss in November 2009. The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-15.5, 199)
After overcoming a 27-point deficit in Cleveland on Wednesday, the Heat will be looking to push their winning streak to 25 games when they host the Detroit. The Pistons would seem an unlikely opponent to end the streak, as they have dropped nine straight and could be without their starting backcourt on Friday. Brandon Knight is fighting through an ankle sprain and Jose Calderon was forced to leave Monday’s game against the Brooklyn Nets in the first quarter with flu-like symptoms. Detroit has struggled to remain competitive during its losing streak, falling by an average of 17.6 points.
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Hornets (+6, 177)
Coming off perhaps their most emotional win of the season, the Memphis Grizzlies will try to avoid a letdown Friday when they travel to face the New Orleans Hornets. It took a Marc Gasol tip-in with less than a second remaining to lift the Grizzlies to a 90-89 overtime win against Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Grizzlies were on a bit of a surge earlier in the season when they dropped an ugly one to the last-place Hornets at home. Memphis got revenge in a rematch earlier this month with a 96-85 victory. The under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies’ last five games overall.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets (-12, 212)
Cleveland is looking for a bounce-back performance after watching a 27-point lead over the Miami Heat evaporate Wednesday en route to a 98-95 loss. The Cavaliers have lost four straight games and eight of 10 after the collapse against Miami. The comeback was the largest an opponent has overcome in Cleveland franchise history. The Rockets won the first meeting 112-104 in Cleveland behind 29 points from James Harden and the Cavs have lost in each of their last five visits to Houston.
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks (-4.5, 196)
The Celtics squandered a late lead at New Orleans on Wednesday and fell to the lowly Hornets at the buzzer, dropping their road mark to 12-21. The Celtics took the first meeting 117-115 in overtime at home on Dec. 12. Paul Pierce led the way with 34 points. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs (-11.5, 198.5)
San Antonio has won 24 of its last 26 regular-season home games against Utah and the Jazz arrive having lost seven consecutive road games. The Spurs could get an added boost from the return of PG Tony Parker from an ankle injury. The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-3, 192)
Phoenix could be shorthanded inside after center Jermaine O'Neal was forced to leave Wednesday's game with a calf strain and missed practice Thursday. The Suns have already lost starting center Marcin Gortat to a season-ending foot injury. Phoenix has dropped five of six and Minnesota had dropped nine straight road contests. The under is 22-4 in the Suns’ last 26 home games.
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5, 199)
The Lakers will try to stay hot while integrating both Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant back into the lineup when they host the Washington. Bryant scored 30 points in the first meeting, a 102-96 Los Angeles win at Washington on Dec. 14. And Gasol has averaged 18.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in 18 career games against the Wizards. The Wizards are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Pacific foes.
NBA Point Spreads, Trends and Betting Guide – Heat Eye No. 25
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
While the NCAA Tournament dominates most hoops bettors’ thoughts, there are 11 games on the Friday night NBA card.
The Heat go for their 25th straight win, and it looks like – pardon the pun – a layup. They’re 15.5-point favorites at home vs. the Pistons.
William Hill is offering a prop on whether Miami will break the NBA's consecutive-wins record, set by the 1971-72 Lakers, and win 34 in a row.
Here are some trends and injuries to consider for your pro basketball handicapping tonight. The lines are from the LVH as of about 9:30 a.m. PT.
NBA Trends:
* The Knicks have covered seven of their last eight games. The UNDER has occurred in five of the last six meetings between the Raptors and Knicks. Toronto is -1 at home tonight, the total is 192.5
* The Bucks have covered once in their last six games. The home team has covered the last four meetings between the Bucks and Pacers. Indiana is tonight’s 8.5-point home fave, and the total is 191.
* The Thunder have covered eight of their last nine games against losing teams. The Magic have covered eight of their last 30 home games. OKC lays 13.5 on the road tonight, with a total of 207.5
* The Heat have covered twice in their last seven home games. The home team has covered five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Heat. Miami is -15.5, the total is 200.
* The Blazers and Hawks have stayed UNDER the total in their last four meetings. Atlanta is -7.5 at home, the total is 200.
* The Grizzlies have covered eight of their last 10 road games. The Grizzlies have stayed UNDER the total in their last five games. Memphis is -6.5 at New Orleans, the total is 177.
* The Cavs have covered five of their last six road games, but have failed to cover in their last seven visits to Houston. The Rockets are -13, with a total of 212.5
* The Mavericks have covered 24 of their last 33 games. The Celtics and Mavericks have stayed UNDER the total in their last five meetings in Dallas. The Mavs lay 4.5 tonight, with the total at 196.5.
* The Jazz and Spurs have stayed UNDER the total in six of their last seven meetings. San Antonio is -11.5, tonight’s total is 199.
* The Suns have stayed UNDER the total in 22 of their last 26 home games. Phoenix is -3 vs. the T’Wolves, with the total set at 192.5.
* The Lakers have covered their last four games coming off a loss. The Wizards have covered four of their last five games at the Lakers. L.A. is -9 at home tonight, and the total is 200.
NBA Injuries:
* Pacers forward Danny Granger (knee) is questionable.
* Pacers forward David West (back) is doubtful.
* Clippers guard Eric Bledsoe (calf) is questionable.
* Lakers guard Steve Blake (illness) is questionable.
* Knicks center Tyson Chandler (neck) is OUT Indefinitely.
* Spurs guard Tony Parker (ankle) is questionable.
* Wizards guard Bradley Beal (ankle) is questionable.