NBA Betting News and Notes Friday, May 10

Friday's NBA Playoff Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (7, 187.5)

Best-of-seven series tied 1-1.

Chicago opened the series with a stunning upset and Miami evened it up with a savage beating. Pivotal Game 3 of the best-of-seven Eastern Conference series takes place Friday on the Bulls’ home floor two nights after the Heat inflicted a 115-78 beating on Chicago. Miami was crisp throughout the contest after being visibly rusty in the opening loss. The Bulls will again be without starters Luol Deng (illness) and Kirk Hinrich (calf).

Miami’s last visit to Chicago resulted in a 101-97 loss that snapped its 27-game winning streak. Friday’s contest figures to again be testy after the Game 2 outing that featured nine technical fouls (six on the Bulls) and a flagrant 1 foul on Heat forward Chris Andersen. Miami forward LeBron James says there is no carryover from the convincing win. “It’s just one game,” James said. “You don’t get two wins if you win by over 30 or over 40. You only get one game. They’re back in their home building, where they’re very good and we have to be ready for it.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Backup guards Ray Allen (21 points) and Norris Cole (18) were a combined 12-of-16 shooting in Game 2 as Chicago’s defensive intensity dropped significantly. Cole hit all four of his 3-point attempts and Miami was 9-of-18 from 3-point range while shooting 60 percent overall. The Heat also blistered Chicago in the interior with a 56-18 scoring edge in the paint and forced the Bulls into 19 turnovers. Guard Dwyane Wade is playing with a bruised right knee and the Game 2 blowout allowed him to get additional rest after playing 28 minutes. James is averaging 21.5 points through the first two games.

ABOUT THE BULLS: Deng met with Chicago-area reporters on Thursday’s off-day to detail his scary health ordeal. The All-Star forward said he came down with the flu and got severely ill after undergoing a spinal tap to rule out meningitis. He said that walking was a program and that he experienced piercing headaches and lost 15 pounds due to the illness that forced him to be hospitalized. “I couldn’t control my body really, and because of that I lost a lot of weight,” Deng said. At this point, there is no firm word on whether Deng will regain his strength soon enough to play in the series. Hinrich underwent another MRI exam and it also isn’t clear when he can return.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in Bulls’ last six home games.
* Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Heat are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Heat’s last six road games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Game 2 marked the 41st time in NBA playoff history that a game was decided by 35 or more points.

2. Heat C Chris Bosh averaged just 11 points over the first two games.

3. Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said PG Derrick Rose (knee) won’t play in Game 3 despite another round of speculation that Rose intended to return.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 203)

Series tied 1-1.

For all but a few minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime in Game 1, the Golden State Warriors have dominated the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals. The Warriors will be looking to take a 2-1 lead when the series shifts to Oakland, Calif., for Game 3 on Friday. Golden State enjoys one of the best homecourt advantages in the NBA and has not hosted a second-round playoff game since 2007.

The Warriors blew a 16-point lead with four minutes left in the fourth quarter before falling in double overtime in Game 1. Instead of folding in Game 2, Golden State came out on fire behind Klay Thompson and built up a 19-point halftime lead en route to a 100-91 victory. “I truly believe the trials and tribulations are transportation for where you’re going,“ Warriors coach Mark Jackson said. “Game 1 made us better. We didn’t panic. We made plays.” That marked the first setback of the postseason for the second-seeded Spurs. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker have had strong moments in the first two games for San Antonio but the Spurs have not been able to put together a consistent offense.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker came alive in Game 1 when Thompson fouled out late and led the comeback and eventual overtime win. When the Warriors’ long-armed guard has been able to avoid foul trouble, Parker has had a hard time getting into the paint to score and create. On the other end, the Spurs have been able to stop one of Golden State’s guards at a time but not both. “I thought it was polite of (Thompson and Curry) to at least take turns and not both be on fire on the same night,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said after Game 2. “Maybe the next iteration will be neither one of them will be hot in Game 3. That’s what I’m hoping.” Duncan battled through an illness in Game 1 and collected 23 points and nine rebounds in Game 2 but has often had to serve as the lone big man in the middle while the Spurs try to counter Golden State’s various small lineups.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State never lacks confidence in its outside shooting and has put that on display with Curry in Game 1 and Thompson in Game 2. Thompson set a franchise playoff record by going 8-for-9 from 3-point range in the win and scored 29 of his 34 points in the first half while also grabbing 14 rebounds for his first career double-double. Curry left most of the 3-point shooting up to his counterpart in Game 2 but came through at the end with several slashing drives into the paint that helped the Warriors fight off another fourth-quarter rally from the Spurs. Golden State has shown a willingness to experiment with its lineup since David Lee went down with a torn hip flexor in Game 1 of the first round, and inserted rookie Draymond Green into the starting lineup in Game 2. Green has proven to be a tenacious defender and has adding 3-point shooting to his repertoire in the playoffs. Going home is certain to bring more confidence to the young Warriors. “Honestly we have the best home court in the NBA,” Thompson said. “They’re the greatest crowd I ever played in front of.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Golden State.

* Favorite is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Spurs are 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in Golden State.
* Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Warriors have outrebounded the Spurs in each of the first two games.

2. San Antonio C Tiago Splitter (ankle) played for the first time since Game 2 of the first round on Wednesday and scored five points in 10 minutes off the bench.

3. Lee (hip) has been in uniform for each of the first two games but has yet to play in the series.

Heat-Bulls, Game 3
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The heat is on inside the second round series between Miami and Chicago after a pair of high-intensity contests. Miami rebounded from a sluggish effort in the series opener to blow away Chicago in Wednesday’s Game 2, as the defending champions try to keep their composure with things shifting to the Windy City for each of the next two contests.

The fireworks began on Chicago's opening possession with a hard foul by Udonis Haslem on Nate Robinson. The Bulls responded with Marco Belinelli roughing up Dwyane Wade on a fast break to even up the score, but Chicago was the team that became unraveled. The two teams combined for nine technicals, one flagrant foul, and two ejections, as Miami used a 72-30 run to rout Chicago, 115-78, to easily cash as 13-point favorites.

Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson were each ejected in the second half, as the Bulls' offense never got going by shooting just 35% from the floor. Carlos Boozer struggled for the second straight game, scoring eight points on 3-of-9 shooting, while putting up just 14 points in the series. Robinson couldn't come up with the big shots on Wednesday, as the diminutive guard tallied 11 points after several key baskets in Game 1.

After scoring just 86 points in the opener, the Heat offense picked things up with a 55-point first half, while putting up 60 points in the final 24 minutes. LeBron James scored 19 points, but 12 of those points came in the first quarter. Norris Cole helped key a late second quarter run by drilling a pair of three-pointers, while Wade shot an economical 7-of-11 from the field.

The Heat and Bulls split a pair of meetings at the United Center, but the contest that stuck out to most came in late March. Chicago snapped Miami's 27-game winning streak with a 101-97 victory as 6½-point underdogs, as Luol Deng paced the Bulls with 28 points. Deng missed the first two games of this series with complications following a spinal tap last week, as he is expected to miss Game 3.

Tom Thibodeau's club started the postseason with a 2-1 mark to the 'under,' but the Bulls have now cashed the 'over' in five of the last six contests. The Chicago offense has eclipsed the 100-point mark in only one of nine postseason games, coming in the 142-point output in the Game 4 triple-overtime victory over Brooklyn in the first round. The Bulls own an 11-4 ATS record the last 15 games as an underdog off a loss.

Miami has won 42 of its previous 45 trips to the court, while compiling a 15-5 ATS ledger the last 20 games. On the highway, the Heat owns an amazing 8-1 ATS record the past nine highway contests, as the only setback came at Chicago to end the long hot streak. The Heat has shaded to the 'under' away from the American Airlines Arena recently, hitting in nine of the last 15 road games.

Handicapper Joe Nelson points out the value in Chicago on Friday, "On the year Miami is just 7-10 ATS on the road against winning teams and while Chicago has a very poor ATS record at home they have rarely played at home in this type of an underdog role." The Bulls barely profited as a home 'dog this season, putting together a 5-4 ATS record, while beating the Knicks twice, Heat, and Lakers.

The Heat are listed as seven-point favorites, while the total is set at 187½. The game tips off at 8:05 PM EST and can be seen nationally on TNT.

Spurs at Warriors, Game 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

On Wednesday, the Warriors evened up their second-round series with San Antonio with a 100-91 triumph in Game 2 as eight-point underdogs. The win snapped a 30-game road losing skid to the Spurs, and certainly boosted the confidence of this young energetic team.

Point guard Stephen Curry garners the majority of attention in Golden State but it was his backcourt teammate Klay Thompson who stole the show. The former Washington State standout scored 29 points in the first half as he connected on 8-of-9 from 3-point land.

Golden State led 28-23 after the first quarter and 62-43 at the break. Similar to Game 1, the Warriors had another second-half drought and San Antonio cut the lead to 11 points heading into the final quarter. The game slowed down in the last 12 minutes and the Warriors held on for the road win and cover.

Thompson led all players with career-high 34 points and he pulled down 14 rebounds as well. Curry posted 22 points, which was a big drop from his 44-point effort in Game 1.

When you look at the numbers, San Antonio is fortunate to have this series tied after two games. The Spurs were outrebounded in the first two installments and they only shot 43 and 39 percent from the field.

In Game 2 San Antonio was just 5-of-21 (24%) from 3-point land, which was far below their season average of 37.6 percent. Make a note that Golden State has left a lot of points off the board in this series, going 30-of-48 (63%) from the free throw line. Center Andrew Bogut (40%) has been the biggest culprit for the Warriors inability to cash from the stripe so far.

After two games, a lot of pundits are asking themselves are the Warriors for real or is San Antonio just not playing well? According to the oddsmakers, they’re buying into Golden State and so is the betting public.

CRIS, a major offshore outfit, opened San Antonio as a one-point road favorite for Game 3 but the money quickly came in on Golden State, who is now a 2½-point favorite.

The Warriors have covered all eight games in the playoffs and they’re currently on an 11-0 run against the spread when you include the final week of the regular season.

During this run, Golden State has gone 4-0 both SU and ATS at Oracle Arena, which includes a 116-106 regular season win on Apr. 15 against San Antonio, who rested its starters for this affair. Against Denver in the first round, the Warriors scored 110, 115 and 92 points and two of their wins came by four points or less.

San Antonio cruised past the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round and Greg Popovich’s team looked much better on the road. The Spurs walloped the short-handed Lakers by a combined 51 points (120-89, 103-82) in the two victories.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards believes that Game 3 could come down to role players. He explained, “Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are expending a lot of energy defending Curry and Thompson, so San Antonio needs somebody to step up offensively. Danny Green was that guy in Game 1, scoring 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting from 3-point range. However, he was only 4-of-12 from the field in Game 2. The Spurs will need Green to hit 3's at Oracle Arena.”

The Spurs hit 13 bombs from downtown in Game 1 and just five 3-pointers in Wednesday’s loss. The drop off from downtown could be attributed to the play in the paint, in particular Bogut’s size against Duncan. Golden State doesn’t need to double-team the All-Star, which leaves the Spurs sharpshooters guarded on the perimeter. If Bogut does get into foul trouble, San Antonio’s outside game will have plenty of opportunities.

Prior to Game 1, the Warriors were listed as high as 5/1 underdogs on the series price to beat San Antonio in the best-of-seven battle. Now that the series is tied, Sportsbook.ag has San Antonio listed as a 5/8 favorite (Bet $160 to win $100) over Golden State (+140) despite losing home-court advantage.

Sportsbook.ag has also updated their Exact Game Props on this series.

5 Games Spurs Win (5/2)
5 Games Warriors Win (10/1)
6 Games Spurs Win (3/1)
6 Games Warriors Win (4/1)
7 Games Spurs Win (2/1)
7 Games Warriors Win (6/1)

The total in Game 2 closed at 205 and if wasn’t for a 36-point fourth quarter between the pair, we probably would’ve saw the ‘over’ improve to 2-0 in this series.

For Game 3, the total is hovering around 203 points and the ‘over’ could be a good lean when you look ahead to Game 4, which takes place on Sunday. The fourth installment is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET, which will be a 12:30 p.m. PT start in the Bay Area. We mention that because the Warriors haven’t played a game this early all season at home.

When you consider that Wednesday’s game was on pace to go ‘over’ the number prior to the drought in the fourth quarter, total players could get a shootout on Friday with the late start.

ESPN will provide national coverage at 10:35 p.m. ET.

Friday's NBA Action
By CarbonSports

Miami and Golden State Rise Up

“Rise up” might be Oklahoma City’s slogan of inspiration in the post season, but Miami and Golden State are living it right now. Both teams exploded on Wednesday to even their semifinals series and the good times should continue to roll. Let’s break down the pair of Game 3’s on Friday night’s NBA playoff betting board.

Miami Heat -7 over Chicago Bulls

The Miami Heat didn’t take their first playoff loss in these NBA playoffs very well. After being buried by Chicago in Game 1, the Heat responded by tormenting their opponents with a 115-78 thrashing that reminded everyone of how good they are. Some people were willing to bet against Miami in Game 2. Are you feeling lucky for Game 3?

The staggering element in Miami’s win wasn’t just that they won by 37 points. LeBron James had his “worst” game of the post season with just 19 points, 5 rebounds and 9 assists over 30 minutes. He didn’t really need to do much work because Chicago was lifeless in Game 2, but the rest of the Miami Heat played overwhelmingly well. Ray Allen led the way with 21 points and five other players (including James) scored in double digits.

If you think that Chicago is going to use their home court advantage, you should probably guess again. Miami’s daunting 20-6 ATS record in their last 26 road games makes this one an easy call. Beyond that, Miami is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Hiccups like Game 1 will happen, and blowouts like Game 2 are going to be more frequent. Miami knows how important gaining rest is going to be so they’re going to want to put the Bulls in to an early grave.

Chicago will remain without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, who would be massive assets to NBA playoff betting circles if they were healthy but even if they manage to make it on to the floor, they won’t be able to save their team. Deng and Hinrich are not the toughest players in the league and they need to be 100-percent healthy to have big impacts. A strained calf will slow Hinrich down on the defensive end, while Deng’s injury (a complication from a spinal tap) will destroy his body overall. It’s impossible to put faith in the Bulls just because of those two potentially coming back.

It doesn’t help that Chicago is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Miami will make short work as they chew the Bulls apart. It’s not impossible for a hero to emerge from Chicago’s bench, but that’s not a reliable betting commodity with such a generous line being handed to the road favorites.

Bet Miami to destroy Chicago and continue to surge their way through the Eastern Conference.

Golden State warriors -2 over San Antonio Spurs

After a heartbreaking loss to San Antonio in the first game of the series, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson came back with a barrage of scoring that left the Spurs in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. Curry got back on the horse with 22 points but it was Klay Thompson who was easily the best of the night. His 34 points and 14 rebounds was a well deserved breakthrough performance, and was a fantastic way for him to respond for his poor fouling in Game 1.

I think that the most underrated element of this series is the coaching battle. Greg Popovich is perhaps the greatest coach in the league right now, but you can’t dismiss how amazing Mark Jackson is, especially after losing a key starter like David Lee. Jackson knew he almost blew Game 1 when he reacted to the Spurs’ frontcourt and started Festus Ezeli. Sometimes you justifiably adjust your lineup against great teams, but Jackson realized that the best way to play this series was to amplify his team’s strengths.

Jackson went smaller in Game 2 and saw his team march out to an early 62-48 lead at the half. The Spurs had to deal with the constant threats of Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, who had decent games but had no way of covering the perimeter completely. That’s how Curry and Thompson exploded on Wednesday night.

San Antonio played a strong game, but was murdered by the sad sack effort of their bench which totaled just 15 points in Game 2 (in this case, I substitute Manu as a legitimate starter since he played 28 minutes even though Bonner started the game). The bench is a necessary element in San Antonio’s game plan because they can’t play Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli for max minutes due to age. They need their young guns like Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to step up in this series.

That will be difficult in the insanely loud Oracle Arena on Friday night. San Antonio’s road record is atrocious, and they’re also just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games overall. They may be a bet-off team down the stretch since they’re also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with winning records. Everyone in the Western Conference semifinals have winning records.

It also helps matters that Golden State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a cover, and a perfect 5-0 ATS in games following a day of rest.

2013 NBA Playoffs

Chicago-Miami split six games this season; Heat shot 50.7/51.4/60.0% in three games they won, 46.2/48.1/39.7% in three losses. Miami won 13 of its last 14 games overall; they're 5-1 in playoffs, with no wins by less than 11 points. Team that led at halftime won all five series games so far this season (one game was tied). Under is 4-1-1 in Heat's last six away games. Chicago has been mentally tough in playoffs, but reality is their 3rd string PG starts now. Hard to beat Miami that way.

Steph Curry played 101:00 of a possible 106:00 in first two games of a series where Spurs have led for only 11:00; not sure why teams that had to play Wednesday are playing here too, while Tuesday's teams are off until Saturday- TV's call? Warriors are now 11-0 vs spread in last eleven games overall; over is 4-4 in their playoff games. Spurs are now 5-1 in playoffs, with four wins by double digits; home side is 5-1 in series tilts this year, with Spurs losing by 6ot/10 in their two visits here. Golden State was 11-23 from arc last game; Thompson was amazing 8-9.

Armadillosports.com