NBA Knowledge
Miami-Toronto
Five series games decided by total of 29 points; three went to OT. Heat lost seven of last 10 games with Toronto; they are 2-3 vs Raptors in last five played here. Home side won ten of last 14 series games overall. Eight of last ten Miami games stayed under total, as have 10 of last 13 Raptor games. Lowry had 33 points in Game 3 but is 21-71 in the other four games. Toronto lost three of last four road games; Miami is 4-6 in its last ten games, splitting its last four at home.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 12-8, over: 11-9
Armadillosports.com
Game 6 - Raptors at Heat
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Toronto (63-31 straight up, 49-45 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday’s Game 5 win to set up Friday’s close-out game at Miami in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Raptors captured a 99-91 victory as five-point home favorites, pulling away in the final 1:32 with an 11-4 run.
Dwane Casey’s club led by as many as 20 late in the second quarter, but Miami went on a 10-0 run in the final 3:08 of the first half to pull to within 55-45 at intermission. Nevertheless, Toronto easily hooked up its betting supporters for first-quarter (-1.5) and first-half wagers (-2.5). The 100 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 94.5-point first-half total.
Miami (54-40 SU, 50-43-1 ATS) trailed by 15 when Terrence Ross made a driving layup to start the fourth quarter, but it quickly responded with a 7-0 run behind a pair of buckets from Joe Johnson and a 3-ball from rookie Josh Richardson out of the University of Tennessee.
Toronto’s lead ballooned to 13 on a 3-point play the hard way by DeMar DeRozan with 8:33 remaining. However, Richardson answered with back-to-back triples to put Miami back within striking distance. Down seven with 3:02 left, the Heat went on a 6-0 run thanks to consecutive baskets from Johnson and a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade with 1:54 remaining.
DeRozan hit two free throws to push the lead back to three and then Miami’s Goran Dragic committed a costly turnover. For most of the playoffs, especially at crunch time, Toronto has had way-too-many possessions in which it fails to get any movement on offense and is left to force a low-percentage shot just before the shot-clock buzzer.
On Wednesday night, though, Kyle Lowry made things happen late in the shot clock. With a 90-87 advantage at the 52-second mark, the Villanova product drained an audacious stepback 3-pointer that inserted the dagger into the Heat’s Game 5 comeback hopes.
At this point, the outright victory was nearly sealed, but nothing was settled whatsoever in terms of the spread cover and the total. Ahead of the number by merely one point, Toronto allowed Wade to get a quick basket to make it 93-89 with 46 ticks left. But again, Lowry turned what appeared to be an ugly possession into gold when he penetrated late in the shot clock and buried a fadeaway jumper from the baseline.
After a timeout gave Miami the ball at halfcourt, Wade needed only two seconds to make a layup to cut the deficit to 95-91 with 21 seconds remaining. The Heat had to foul right away and DeRozan hit a pair of free throws to get the Raptors back ahead of the spread by one point. Also, the total, which closed at 189 at many books, was still on the line with the combined score at 188.
Wade missed a 3-pointer and Miami fouled again with nine seconds left. With gamblers on the total cringing over the result of the looming free throws, DeRozan knocked down both attempts from the stripe to make the ‘over’ a winner.
Game 2 also went ‘over’ the tally, but only because of overtime. Though Game 5 was at a rate to go ‘over’ for most of the night, the 177 combined points with 52 seconds remaining had ‘under’ supporters liking their chances. In other words, the ‘under’ could easily be 5-0 in the series so far. Instead, it’s just 3-2.
For Friday’s Game 5 at American Airlines Arena, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Miami as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 190.5 points. By Thursday night, however, the Heat were favored by four points and the total was adjusted to 189.5. Miami was -180 on the money line, leaving the Raptors at +160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160). The Heat was favored by 2.5 points for first-half wagers.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David offered these thoughts on Game 5: “From a betting perspective, every game in this series has been a toss-up and there hasn’t been any wire-to-wire outcomes. I believe bettors are going to be in for another long night on Friday and you could argue for both sides and totals in Game 6. While Miami is banged up, I haven’t seen enough from Toronto to make a case for them to close out this series on the road. Since the Raptors came back into the playoff scene a couple of years ago, the team has built 3-2 leads twice and they failed to close out those series on the road. Toronto lost to Brooklyn in 2014 and in this year’s first round to Indiana and both losses were by double digits.”
David continued, “Looking at this year’s postseason, favorites have gone 49-13 straight up and they’ve covered 77 percent (38-24 ATS) of those games. Miami has helped that record, going 4-2 as a favorite in this year’s postseason but the kicker is that the Heat have covered all four of its victories. Instead of betting the Game 6 side or total on Friday, I would suggest taking Miami on the adjusted series price. The Heat are listed as high as a 3/1 underdog to win the next two games and if they can force a Game 7, then you can always get out of your bet with a hedge on Toronto.”
Both teams sustained key injuries in Game 5. Miami’s Luol Deng and Toronto’s DeMarre Carroll suffered wrist injuries, but MRI results for both players came back negative. They have both been upgraded to ‘probable,’ but whether either player will be effective is a major question mark.
Both teams are already missing their starting centers. Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas had recorded four straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle in Game 3. He is out for the rest of the series. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocked shots per game during the regular season, is ‘out’ for Game 6 with a knee injury. His status for a potential Game 7 back in Toronto remains in doubt.
Miami is 32-15 SU and 27-19 ATS at home, going 10-2 both SU and ATS in its last 12 at the Triple-A.
Toronto has posted a 25-20 SU record and a 24-21 ATS mark on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-3 both SU and ATS in five postseason road assignments so far.
The ‘under’ is on a 10-3 run in Toronto’s last 13 games. The Raptors have watched the ‘under’ go 48-45-1 overall, 26-19-1 in their road contests. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in eight consecutive road games.
The ‘under’ has cashed at an 8-2 clip in Miami’s last 10 outings. The Heat has seen the ‘under’ go 55-38-1 overall, 28-19 in its home contests.
Tip-off is scheduled for Friday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Friday's NBA playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat (-4, 190)
When Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan play well in the same game, the Toronto Raptors are very hard to beat. The Raptors will try to get two straight strong games out of their All-Star backcourt and close out the Eastern Conference semifinal series when they visit the Miami Heat in Game 6 on Friday.
Lowry and DeRozan combined for 19 points on 6-of-28 shooting in a Game 4 loss but pushed those numbers to 59 points on 20-of-47 in Game 5 as Toronto earned a 99-91 win in front of its home fans and grabbed a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series. “Our team feeds off our energy,” Lowry told reporters of he and DeRozan. “Everything we do, they look at and they want to be a part of it. For us, it’s just about continuing to be aggressive.” The Heat are in the unenviable position of having to overcome a 3-2 deficit for the second straight series, and this time they might be doing it without a pair of starters. Hassan Whiteside (sprained knee) is likely out for Game 6 while forward Luol Deng will undergo an MRI exam on a wrist injury that knocked him out in the third quarter of Game 5.
LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 4.5-point favorites on home court and the line was dropped slightly to -4 by Thursday morning. The total opened at 190 and hasn't moved off that number at most books. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (63-31, 49-45 ATS, 45-48-1 O/U): Toronto is dealing with just as many injuries as Miami with starting center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) lost for the series, DeMarre Carroll dealing with a wrist contusion that knocked him out of Game 5 and DeRozan in constant pain from a thumb injury. DeRozan went 11-of-22 from the field and 11-of-11 from the free-throw line on Wednesday despite having to tie a shoelace around his thumb during stoppages to keep down the swelling. “There’s nothing else I can do about it but just try and play through it the best way I can and just deal with it later,” DeRozan, who aggravated the injury in the fourth quarter on Wednesday and briefly retreated to the locker room, told reporters.
ABOUT THE HEAT (54-40, 50-43-1 ATS, 38-55-1 O/U): Deng was 0-of-8 from the floor in Game 5 before exiting and is averaging 7.8 points on 35.9 percent shooting series, and rookies Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson figure to see even more minutes in Game 6 if Deng is unable to go. “We just have to stay poised and other guys have to be ready to step up," guard Joe Johnson told reporters. "That's how it has to be right now. It's tough, but we have to play through it. There is no time to feel sorry for ourselves. If one man goes down, another man has to be ready." Miami could use more from Johnson as well, with the veteran shooting 37.2 percent in the series while knocking down 1-of-17 from 3-point range.
TRENDS:
* Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 8-0 in Raptors last 8 road games.
* Under is 8-2 in Heat last 10 overall.
CONSENSUS: The public is split almost down the middle for this huge Game 6, with 52 percent of wagers on the underdog Raptors. Wagers on the total are also split with 51 percent picking the Under.
Friday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag
TORONTO RAPTORS (63-31) at MIAMI HEAT (54-40)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -4, Total: 189
The Raptors will be looking to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a road victory over the Heat in Game 6 on Friday.
Toronto dominated the first half of Game 5 against Miami, but the Heat came roaring back in the second half and eventually made it a one-point game in the fourth quarter. The Raptors were, however, able to clamp down and win the game 99-91 as 4.5-point home favorites.
They’re now one victory away from advancing to the next round. One thing that can help them win this pivotal Game 6 is taking care of the ball. Toronto committed just nine turnovers in Game 5 and doing that again would come a long way in earning a victory on Friday.
One thing that looks good for Toronto coming into this game is that Miami is 54-73 ATS after one or more consecutive OVERS over the past three seasons. The Heat are, however, 17-8 ATS after having lost two of their past three games this season.
C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle) remains out indefinitely for the Raptors and C Hassan Whiteside (Knee) is out indefinitely for the Heat, who are already without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) for the season.
The Raptors are coming off of a big victory in Game 5 and they will be feeling confident coming into Game 6, as PG Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs) and SG DeMar DeRozan (19.1 PPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) finally showed up together last game.
Lowry finished Game 5 with 25 points, 10 boards, six assists and three steals in 41 minutes of action. He also hit a number of clutch shots in the fourth quarter.
DeRozan, meanwhile, had 34 points on 11-for-22 shooting from the field. He was playing that game with an injured thumb, but it did not end up hurting him. Toronto will need both of them to continue to knock down shots moving forward.
Another guy that must play well for the Raptors is C Bismack Biyombo (5.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs). Biyombo came up huge in Game 5, finishing with 10 points, six boards and four blocks in 38 minutes of action.
He was playing very well around the basket on both ends of the floor and must continue to be active the remainder of this series.
If the Heat are going to force a Game 7 then SG Dwyane Wade (21.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.3 APG in playoffs) is going to need to come up huge. Wade had just 20 points on 14 shot attempts in Game 5 and Miami needs him to be a lot more aggressive on Friday.
Wade averaged 34.0 PPG in the previous two contests and it’s going to take that type of performance for the Heat to win on Friday.
Another guy that must come to play for Miami is PG Goran Dragic (15.4 PPG in playoffs). Dragic had just 13 points on 6-for-14 shooting from the floor in Game 5 and Miami needs him to score around 20 in this one.
With the big men injured for both teams, this series has come down to a battle between backcourts and Dragic needs to be more effective moving forward.
Bruce Marshall
Padres +134
Once again a bad number in this series, as was last night's game in which the underdog Padres dominated. Yes, San Diego has been forced to recall Christian Frederich from AAA El Paso to start this game due to Andrew Cashner's hamstring woes, but the Padres have won three in a row for the first time this season and seem to be building momentum,. Five innings from Frederich is all manager Andy Green asks for tonight. Meanwhile, Milwaukee risks much with starter Junior Guerra and his 6.00 ERA in two starts.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Raptors at Heat (-4, 189)
Miami won the first game of this series in overtime, but Toronto has won three of the last four games to take a 3-2 series lead into Game 6 tonight. All six games have been highly competitive (3 went into overtime) with the winning margins coming by 6, 4, 4, 7, and 8 points. Based on that alone, taking the points looks like the right way to play this series. But the favorite has surprisingly covered the pointspread in the past two games. There’s no reason not to expect another close game tonight. However, now Miami is the team in the good bounce back spot at home off a loss, but I’m unwilling to lay points considering how close all six games have been in this playoff series.