NBA Knowledge
Toronto-Cleveland
Home team has dominated series, winning all five games by 21.8 point average; over is 6-4-1 in last 11 series games, with home team 8-0 in last eight. Cavaliers lost last four games in Canada (0-4 vs spread). Cavs are 4-2 on road in playoffs. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; but went 7-20 in Game 5. Raptors are 8-2 at home in playoffs. Home sides are 9-1 vs spread in conference finals.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 5-5, over: 4-5-1
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cleveland at Toronto
Cleveland off the most lopsided playoff win in franchise history thumping Raptors 116-78 easily covering the -11 point spot try to close out Toronto with a victory Friday in Game 6 at Air Canada Centre. Simply too much talent disparity, Cavaliers move on. Sports Interaction has Cavaliers -6.0 points road favorites. Might be a touch generous.
The Raptors an entirely different team playing in front of the home audience should give Cleveland a run for the money. Raptors are a profitable 7-1 ATS as underdogs in front of the hometown crowd. Additionally, Home Dogs in the 4.5 to 6.0 points range are 5-2 ATS this postseason, 3-1 ATS off a loss the previous effort. Finally, Cavaliers have had a horrible time north of the border this season going 0-4 straight-up and against the betting line.
Eastern Confernce Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+6, 196)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have hung three fierce beatings on Toronto but the outcomes have been different when the Eastern Conference finals have been staged in Canada. The Raptors will attempt to force a Game 7 when they host Cleveland on Friday, while the Cavaliers will be looking to clinch their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.
Cleveland took a 3-2 series lead with a 116-78 dismantling of the Raptors on Wednesday and its three wins are by an average of 29.3 points. "You can see that we've won three at home and they've won two," Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving said at the postgame press conference. "Game 6 will definitely be a great atmosphere that I'm looking forward to, and my teammates are as well." The Raptors gained momentum with their wins in Game 3 and 4 but the good vibes evaporated quickly in the Game 5 effort that was described as "embarrassing" by coach Dwane Casey. "Our backs are against the wall, but we're a resilient group," Toronto small forward DeMarre Carroll told reporters. "We've been in this same situation the last two series, so we know what we need to do. There's no more talking, no more motivational speeches. You just show up."
LINE HISTORY: With their season on the line, the Raptors open as 6-point home dogs against the Cavaliers and the line has yet to move off that number. The total has been bet down one point since opening, going from 197 to 196. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (68-27 SU, 45-47-3 ATS, 47-48 O/U): Power forward Kevin Love rediscovered his shooting stroke and scored 25 points on 8-of-10 shooting in Game 5 after averaging 6.5 points on 5-of-23 shooting over the previous two games. "Just Kevin Love being Kevin Love, he's been playing this way throughout the whole postseason," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at a press conference. "He had two bad games, two bad shooting games, and we made a big deal of it. But Kevin is one of the top 10 players in this league. Nothing that he does amazes me." Small forward LeBron James and point guard Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points on a night in which the Cavaliers shot a blistering 57.1 percent from the field.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (66-35 SU, 52-49 ATS, 49-51-1 O/U): The backcourt of shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (14 points) and point guard Kyle Lowry (13) combined for just 27 points in Game 5 after putting up 67 in the previous game. Lowry's play has been superb at home (27.5 average, 8-of-15 from 3-point range) and atrocious on the road (10.3 average, 2-of-19 on 3s). "I have to play more aggressive from the jump, and I've done it two games at home and not enough on the road," Lowry said at a postgame press conference. "I don't know what it is because I always feel like I can get mine on the road and I know my teammates are going to need me on the road."
TRENDS:
* Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last five games playing on one days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in Raptors last five home games versus a team with a winning road record.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of bettors are giving the early edge to the favored Cavaliers to end the series. Bettors also like the Over in Game 6.
Game 6 - Cavaliers at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The home team has won each of the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto. The Cavaliers look to break that trend with a victory on Friday night in Game 6 at the Air Canada Center where they have lost twice already in this series. However, Toronto is seeking to reach a decisive seventh game for the third consecutive round in the playoffs after suffering a humiliating loss in Game 5.
Cleveland dominated Toronto at Quicken Loans Arena for the third time in this series as the Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-point lead after the first quarter and never looked back. The Cavs crushed the Raptors, 116-78 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while grabbing a 31-point halftime advantage, the largest ever in conference finals history. Kevin Love bounced back from a subpar effort in Game 4 in which he sat out the fourth quarter as he poured in a game-high 25 points in Game 5. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points, as the Cavaliers shot a scorching 57% from the floor.
It was a game to forget for the Raptors, who came off a pair of impressive home underdog victories in Games 3 and 4 to even the series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were the only two Toronto players to register double-figures in Game 5, combining for 27 points on 7-of-20 shooting from the floor. The Raptors shot 39% from the floor, while misfiring on 14-of-17 three-point attempts and missing 14 free throws. The only positive to come out of the Game 5 disaster was the return of center Jonas Valenciunas, who came off the bench following an eight-game absence to score nine points on 4-of-4 shooting from the field.
The Cavaliers have yet to win north of the border this season, losing in all four tries, including twice in the regular season. In all four defeats, Cleveland has scored less than 100 points, although in two of the losses finished with 99 points. In the 105-99 setback in Game 4, the Cavaliers attempted 41 shots from three-point range (making 13), while going to the line only nine times. Lowry and DeRozan carried the Raptors in Game 4, combining for 67 points, as Lowry knocked down four treys in each of the two home victories.
Cleveland owns a perfect 5-0 record the last two postseasons when trying to close out a series, but Tyronn Lue’s club failed to cover in series-clinching victories over Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds. The Cavs won those two games by a combined three points, but have closed out four of their last five playoff series with road victories since 2015. Toronto has won in both of its tries in elimination games in this postseason, although each time came with both squads trying not to get knocked out in seventh game wins over Indiana and Miami.
It’s hard to ignore Toronto’s perfect 7-0 record at home in the playoffs coming off a loss, while Dwane Casey’s squad has covered four straight games at the Air Canada Center. Since allowing 100 points in the playoff opener to Indiana, the Raptors have yielded less than 100 points in regulation in nine straight home contests, resulting in a 5-4 mark to the 'over.’
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David weighs the options on betting these squads, “You can handicap Game 6 a couple different ways and you could be very hesitant to do so. Based on the eyeball test from Game 5, you’re leaning to the Cavaliers on Friday but will they lay an egg like they did in Game 3 at Toronto? Or will Cleveland finally show up for a full 48 minutes at the Air Canada Centre and advance to the finals? The answers to those questions are arguable and that’s where you could be decisive.”
David believes that the Raptors are the look as long as you stick to the numbers, “If you’re handicapping the game on angles and trends, then you’re all-in on Toronto. The home team has won and covered the first five games in this series and the Raptors play much better in Canada. They’ve gone 8-2 in the playoffs at home in the playoff losses came by 10 and six points, compared to dropping six of their seven road playoff games by double digits. Cleveland has gone 4-2 on the road in the playoffs but it’s just 2-4 versus the number in those games and only two wins came by double digits.”
When the Raptors lose, they get blown out. So is it worth taking the points on Friday? “Since the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of Toronto’s games as an underdog in the playoffs, I wouldn’t recommend taking the points. Instead, I would grab the 15/1 odds on the adjusted series price and hope they force a Game 7 on Sunday. If that happens, you can buy back Cleveland in the decisive matchup or let it ride and hedge out with possible Live Betting or halftime wagers. Either way, the series price offers more value to me than the money-line in Game 6, which is plus-230 at most betting shops,” David says.
This postseason has seen its share of blowouts, as clubs coming off a loss of 20 points or more own a 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS record. However, home underdog have gone 3-2 SU/ATS, including Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals in this situation. Last postseason, road teams leading a series 3-2 posted a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record in Game 6, while that scenario has come up only once in the 2016 playoffs as the Raptors lost at Indiana in Game 6 of the first round trying to advance.
David provides his view on the total, which has dropped to 196. “Depending when and where you’ve played totals in this series, your bankroll could have differing results. Per our closing numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2-1 in the first five games and the ‘under’ tickets were definitely helped with some poor offensive production in the final quarters.”
“The total for Game 5 opened at 197 and you can certainly make a sound case for either wager. However, the last two postseasons that the Raptors were sent packing, they gave up 125 and 104 points. Toronto’s offense should be better at home but if you believe Cleveland will advance on Friday, then I believe you’ll see some points. My lean is to the Cavs team total over (101½) and the high side in the game too.”
The Cavaliers opened as 6½-point favorites for Game 6 and that number has held steady. The game tips off at 8:35 PM EST from Toronto and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
Raptors hope to stay alive
By Sportsbook.ag
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (68-27) at TORONTO RAPTORS (66-35)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -6.5, Total: 196.5
The Cavaliers will be looking to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a road win in Game 6 over the Raptors on Friday.
The Raptors are one win away from elimination and they better show more effort in Game 6 than they did in Game 5.
Toronto had a chance to take a lead in the series and lost 116-78 as a 10.5-point road underdog. The team shot just 39.1% from the floor and allowed Cleveland to shoot 57.1%. The Raptors didn’t play well on either end of the court and they also were outrebounded 57-38.
They’ll need to fight for their playoff lives on Friday night. One thing favoring Cleveland coming into this game is the fact that Toronto is a miserable 0-8 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.
The Raptors are also just 1-10 ATS after a game with five or less offensive rebounds in that span.
They are, however, facing a Cavaliers team that is just 5-15 ATS in road games off of a home win in which the team scored 110 or more points over the past three seasons.
Both teams should be relatively healthy coming into this one, so injuries shouldn’t be a major factor in determining the outcome of this game.
The Cavaliers are coming off of a big victory and it’s clear that they will need to try to establish PF Kevin Love (17.1 PPG, 9.4 RRPG in playoffs) early in games.
Love had really struggled in Games 3 and 4, but he erupted for 25 points on 8-for-10 shooting from the field and 3-for-4 shooting from the outside in Game 5. He got a ton of looks in the game’s opening quarter and Cleveland must make it a point to do that again on Friday. He is a rhythm player and can’t go too long without touching the ball without losing his confidence.
The Cavaliers are also going to need SF LeBron James (23.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs) to play like his usual self in this game. He’s been dominant over the past few games, as he is 21-for-33 from the field over the past two contests. He’ll need to continue to attack the rim in this series, as Cleveland can put away Toronto tonight and the team’s best shot of doing that is with an aggressive James.
The Raptors are coming off of a brutal performance in Cleveland, but they have won both of their games in Toronto.
They’ll be hoping to get the crowd into it with a fast start in this one on Friday. PG Kyle Lowry (18.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to get it going for the Raptors in this one.
He had 35 points the last time Toronto hosted Cleveland in this series, but he had just 13 points in Game 5. He is this team’s leader and will need to set a good example early on in Game 6.
SG DeMar DeRozan (20.9 PPG in playoffs) is also going to need to step it up in this one. DeRozan was just 2-for-8 with 14 points in Game 5 and the team desperately needs him to regain his form.
He averaged 32.0 PPG in the Raptors’ two home games, so he should be able to get back on track. He is at his best working from the midrange, but it’d also be big if he can attack the rim and draw fouls on Friday.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Cavaliers (-6.5, 197.5) at Raptors
Toronto qualifies in a solid bounce back spot after losing by 38 points (116-78) in Game 5 on Wednesday night. The Raptors continue to struggle on the road, but they have played well at home this season, going 40-11 SU in all games. In fact, the home team is now 17-4 SU in all Raptors' playoff games this season, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in this series so far. Home underdogs are also 22-12 ATS (65%) in the conference finals the past 25 years, including 4-0 SU/ATS this season.
While the situation favors Toronto, it does not change the fact that Cleveland is the much better team. The Cavaliers finally woke up late in Game 4 and overcame an 18-point deficit to briefly take the lead late in the game. They carried that momentum into Game 5 and they will probably stay more focused in Game 6 tonight (after losing past two games in Toronto) and knowing they can now clinch this series with a win. In five of the seven meetings in which Cleveland was at full strength this season, the Cavaliers held 22-2, 14-3, 35-7, 22-2, and 43-1 largest lead advantages. Cleveland is the better team, but this line is inflated. Cleveland was only +3 points better per game this season.
Games 1 & 2 had misleading Unders as my mathematical re-scoring model had those games finishing with 202.5 points in each game. The teams only combined to score 199 points in each game. Game 3 was legitimately lower scoring with 183 points scored with my math model showing 184.5 points scored. Game 4 was a misleading Over with 204 points scored with my math model only showing 184.5 points scored. Game 5 was a misleading Under with only 194 points scored; my math model showed 204 points should have been scored.
The eight head-to-head meetings this season have averaged 199.6 points per game with median scores of 197/199. However, my re-scores have averaged just 193.6 ppg with median re-scores of 190/194.5.