NBA Betting News and Notes Friday, May 5th, 2017

NBA Knowledge

Lebron James was 15-21 on foul line in Game 2; all the Raptors combined were 14-19, but now the series is in Canada, where Raptors won five of their last six games. Raptors are 1-7 in last eight games vs Cleveland; Cavaliers won their last three visits here, by 26-3-4 points- over is 7-5 in last 12 series games, 8-2 in last 10 Cavalier games. Cleveland shot 54.7% from floor in Game 2, made 18-33 on arc- they’re 6-0 in playoffs (4-2 vs spread, 2-2 at home). Lowry has a bad ankle, is ??able here. Raptors are 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog.

Parker is done for year for Spurs; he played 23-26 minutes in Games 1-2, had 18 points in 26:00 last game- it is a big loss. Spurs won seven of last nine series games; road side won five of last seven meetings. San Antonio won its last three visits here, by 10-6-2 points. Over is 2-0 in this series, after under was 4-0-1 in last five series games prior to this- over is 9-1 in Spurs’ last 10 games overall. Rockets were 9-24 on arc in Game 2, after a 22-50 performance in Game 1- Harden was 3-17 from floor. Spurs lost four of last five road games. Houston won its last four home games.

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Friday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Western Conference First Round

No. 2 San Antonio at No. 3 Houston

A series that already appeared to be a daunting challenge got all the more difficult when Tony Parker was helped off the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 2, unable to put weight on his left leg after lying motionless following a non-contact injury that immediately looked like a worst-case situation.

Those fears where realized on Thursday when Parker was officially diagnosed with a ruptured left quadriceps tendon, ending his season. Patty Mills will likely move into the starting five, while Manu Ginobili should be in line for more minutes. Rookie Dejounte Murray, who got playing time earlier this season and is well-suited to play the up-tempo style the Rockets employ, could also wind up playing a role for San Antonio.

Still, Parker's absence shouldn't be minimized. He's no longer a Finals MVP-type performer like he was earlier in his career, but scored in double-figures in seven of San Antonio's eight postseason games and was best-suited to take pressure off Kawhi Leonard in initiating the offense and serving as a dependable No. 2 scorer. In the Spurs' five playoff wins, Parker averaged 18.8 points and shot 60 percent from the field and 10-for-15 (66.%) from 3-point range. In their three lossses, he shot 37.5 percent, went a combined 1-for-4 from beyond the arc and scored an average of just 11 points.

"That's a tough blow," Ginobili said of losing his longtime backcourt partner. "We'll have to regroup, reorganize the starting five and rotations, everything. We'll try to step up, but it's tough to lose a playier like TP."

Mills, an Australia native generously listed at 6-feet tall, has averaged just 18.5 minutes in the series, averaging just 7.0 points. During the regular season, he shot just 42 percent in the four meetings with Houston, averaging 8.5 points while making only five of 19 3-point tries. He must be more productive for San Antonio to survive Parker's loss and has the skills to make a difference. Of the two, he's the better on-ball defender.

Complicating matters, San Antonio must revamp while going on the road, where it has lost four of five despite being at full strength. The Spurs closed out the Grizzlies in Memphis, but will be in an underdog role for the first time all postseason. They did sweep both regular-season meetings in Houston, but will be playing their first-ever playoff game at Toyota Center, having avoided the Rockets in the playoffs since 1995. Including this series, Houston is just 2-10 against their Southwest Division, in-state rival since Dec. 2014.

While most viewed this as a toss-up of a series coming in, that quickly changed after the Rockets took Game 1 at the AT&T Center 126-99, cruising to a jaw-dropping win after building a 69-39 halftime lead. The Spurs responded on Wednesday, putting the game with a 33-13 fourth quarter despite losing Parker. Kawhi Leonard, who has put all his MVP-type skills on display this postseason, shot 13-for-16 from the field in scoring 34 points while helping lock up James Harden on the defensive end.

Harden was quick to deflect credit from Leonard's defense following Game 2, claiming he just "missed layups" in a brutal 3-for-17 effort. After blistering the nets with a 22-for-50 shooting night from 3-point range in Game 1, Houston rocketed back to earth with an 11-for-34 effort on Wednesday. They should improve on that figure at home, so the Spurs will once again have to prove they can survive in a track meet since slowing Mike D'Antoni's team on their home floor appears unlikely.

Harden was held to just 13 points and has scored 20 or fewer in three of the last four games, so expect him to try and get to the free-throw line as often as possible to get himself into a rhythm. Since opening the postseason by averaging 38.7 points over the first three games against Oklahoma City, he's shot under 40 percent in three of the last four contests, entering Game 3 in a 22-for-81 shooting slump. He's made just seven of 37 3-pointers in that span.

Gregg Popovich and his staff have had a history of slowing Harden and forcing him out of his comfort zone with the likes of Leonard and Danny Green as primary defenders, but this Rockets offense is so loaded that they can't really afford to focus their defensive game plan on one player. Nene, Ryan Anderson and Patrick Beverley have all stepped up thus far through two games, while shooters Eric Gordon and Lou Williams are flammable, so they're definitely equipped to take advantage if too much attention is paid to Harden, who has averaged 12 assists through the first two games.

One major x-factor is Trevor Ariza, who finds himself open often since the Spurs will live with allowing him to shoot. He made five 3-pointers in the Game 1 blowout but went 0-for-4 on Wednesday. D'Antoni will need him to continue shooting and making himself a threat despite the fact his strengths lie on the defensive end. Beverley is in a similar situation and has gone just 3-for-10 from 3-point range but has kept the Spurs defense honest by attacking the paint, relying on a runner that's been productive.

The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the first two games of this series and the oddsmakers opened Game 3 at 215.5, in the same neighborhood it was in for Games 1 and 2.

VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David believes we have a great shot to see the high side connect again. He explained, “The style of the Rockets can always lead to a lot of points from both teams and we saw that occur in both games. Houston dropped 126 in Game 1 and came back to life on Wednesday with 96 points but they were held to 13 in the final quarter so that result is a little misleading.”

“The Spurs defense hasn’t been as good on the road and if you’re basing your wager clearly on betting results, San Antonio has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight and nine of their last 10 games. Plus the Spurs have seen their last five playoff games on the road go ‘over’ and four of the five opponents all posted triple digits on them. Houston averaged 112.6 PPG at home in the first round versus Oklahoma City and it has a team total of 109 ½ listed for Game 3. Along with the ‘over’ on the game, I would back the Rockets eclipsing that number as well.”

Eastern Conference First Round

No. 2 Cleveland at No. 3 Toronto

The Raptors have won eight of their last 10 home games and have utilized their homecourt edge successfully 30 times this season, so they've got reason to feel confident they can turn things around entering a must-win Game 3.

The Cavs will be looking to snuff out the hopes of Canada's basketball community, picking up where they left off after a dominant run in Cleveland. LeBron James led his team to easy covers in a pair of double-digit home wins, rolling by a combined margin of 33 points in all.

LeBron James needed just 14 shots to score 39 points, getting to the free-throw line 21 times and finishing 4-for-6 from 3-point range. That efficiency was the driving force in a blowout win Cleveland never trailed after going up 10-9 on a Kevin Love 3-pointer, the second of 18 they would hit on the night, shooting 54.5 percent.

Remember when the Raptors were supposed to have the right personnel in place to at least challenge James physically? That hasn't worked out.

James is getting wherever he wants, often toying with midseason acquisitions Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. He's shot 62 percent on a cartoonish 23-for-37 from the field, averaging 37 points and shooting 6-for-11 from 3-point range. Holdovers DeMarre Carroll and DeMar DeRozan have had no answers, but those guys were in this situation last season, down 0-2 after being outscored by 50 in the first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.

The Raptors rallied to even the series as the backcourt stepped and the defense hung tough, holding a Cavs attack that had averaged 111.5 points to 91.5. Cleveland has scored 120.5 points through its first two wins, so while slowing it down seems ambitious, the defensive issues that haunted it down the stretch haven't necessarily disappeared. They've just been masked by great shooting and offensive execution.

Head coach Dwane Casey started 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas in Game 1 and switched things up with Serge Ibaka moving to the middle as Norman Powell and Patrick Patterson replaced Carroll and Valanciunas in the Game 2 starting lineup. Casey said he liked the spacing his lineup tweak afforded the first unit, but considering DeRozan fared so poorly and failed to find a rhythm, his move didn't pay dividends. Point guard Kyle Lowry hopes to play after leaving Wednesday's game with an ankle injury, but was forced to skip practice on Thursday and is expected to undergo more tests before being cleared.

"Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeRozan said of Lowry. "So, for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us. But next guy, everybody else has to do do something a little bit more to fill whatever void it is he can't fully do out there on the court."

If he can't play, Cory Joseph will start as he did for most of the regular season's final few weeks. He's a superior defender, but lacks the offensive firepower of Lowry, who is averaging a series-best 20 points and 8 assists per game, shooting 56 percent from the field. By comparison, DeRozan is averaging just 12 points as the Raps have gone down 0-2, shooting just over 30 percent from the field. Valanciunas responded well to his Game 2 reserve role, scoring 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting as he used his size advantage well inside.

Since evening up last year's Eastern Conference finals at 2-2, Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games against the Cavs, winning only a meaningless regular-season game late last month. It has gone 0-3 at the Air Canada Centre in that span. Cleveland is favored on the road for the third time in three playoff road games and is 1-0-1 against the number thus far, beating Indiana twice. The Raptors went 2-1 at home against the Bucks (1-2 ATS) and will be a home underdog for just the fourth time this season. Toronto is 0-3 straight up in this situation (0-2-1 ATS), last losing to the Rockets 129-122 on Jan. 8.

VI NBA analyst Chris David weighed in on the opening number for Game 3, which has also seen the total set at 214.5, picking up right where it was in Game 2 and matching the highest figure in a Raptors game since Feb. 6.

“Prior to this series, I expected Toronto to be favored in its home games based on its home advantage and the Raptors played the Cavaliers tough at the Air Canada Centre in last year’s playoffs. After watching Cleveland dominate the first two games, you can easily see why Toronto is listed as a home ‘dog in Game 3,” said David.

“I do expect a better effort by Toronto on Friday but based on what we’ve seen from the club this season, another Cleveland win could be likely. The Raptors were 0-3 in the regular season as home underdogs and the losses came to by seven, six and three points with the latter coming against Cleveland. Plus, bettors could be hesitant to back Toronto knowing its 12-8 in its last 20 playoff games at home and that includes a loss to the Bucks in this year’s first round.”

Friday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+2, 214.5)

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (57-31 SU, 40-45-3 ATS, 52-35-1 O/U): LeBron James moved into second place on the all-time postseason scoring list when he passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5,762), and his personal tally stands at 5,777. "You hear a name like Kareem, a guy who's done so many great things, not only as an individual but as a teammate," James told reporters. "Winning championships in the '80s and things of that nature and how many points he's put up. He's somebody you read about. I didn't get an opportunity to actually watch him play growing up, but I just read about his accomplishments and things he was able to do, so, it's pretty cool." Point guard Kyrie Irving set a personal playoff high for assists (11 in Game 2) for the second straight contest and is averaging 23 points and 10.5 assists in the series.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-35 SU, 48-41-1 ATS, 44-42 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan were hurting after the Game 2 loss for different reasons. Lowry scored 20 points but departed the game with a sprained left ankle - he says he will be ready for Friday's game - while DeRozan experienced a dreadful contest in which he tallied just five points on 2-of-11 shooting. "It sucks. To lose like we did, to play like I did, it sucks," DeRozan told reporters. "It's frustrating. Now I just have the added time having to wait till Friday night to redeem myself."

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 2.5-point home dogs in a critical Game 3 against the surging Cavaliers, that number was quickly bet down to an even 2. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been lowered to 214.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).

Raptors - PG Kyle Lowry (Questionable, ankle).

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-4.5, 215)

ABOUT THE SPURS (66-24 SU, 46-42-2 ATS, 50-38-2 O/U): The Spurs thoroughly outplayed Houston in the latter stages on Wednesday but will be without point guard Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason after he suffered a ruptured left quadriceps in Game 2. San Antonio star forward Kawhi Leonard fueled his club's rebound with 34 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and three steals in Wednesday's victory. Harden hasn't played like an MVP candidate during the first two games and is averaging 16.5 points on 9-of-30 shooting. Harden did average 12 assists in the two contests but his overall numbers are a significant dropoff from the regular season when he averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 assists and nine rebounds in four games against the Spurs. Forward Ryan Anderson tallied 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and drained four 3-pointers in each of the first two games.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-29 SU, 46-43 ATS, 45-43-1 O/U): Houston's sharp Game 1 effort was a stunner and the Rockets couldn't stay in the follow-up contest with star point guard James Harden suffering through a 3-of-17 shooting performance while scoring just 13 points. "I just missed shots," Harden told reporters after Game 2. "I didn't convert layups. We knew they were going to come out with some aggressiveness. We just have to go out there and take care of business and do the things we didn't do (in Game 2)." Parker fell to the floor after attempting a short jump shot with 8:52 remaining and immediately grasped his leg and it was clear the injury was likely of the severe variety when he had to be carried off by two teammates. He underwent an MRI exam on Thursday, which pinpointed the nature of the injury and San Antonio will now ask backup point guard Patty Mills to step up and lessen Parker's loss. "I can tell you one thing, that we're all ready," Mills said after Game 2. "We're all ready to step up and make an impact."

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 4-point home chalk for Game 3 and that number has been bet up half-point to 4.5. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been faded half-point to 215.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Out for Season, knee)

Rockets - SG James Harden (Probable, hip), PF Chinanu Onuaku (Elig, suspension).

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 Conference Semifinals games.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.