Monday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 183.5)
Two of the bigger surprises in the Eastern Conference over the first two weeks have been the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers.
After barely scraping into the playoffs last season as the bottom two seeds, the 76ers and Pacers were expected to make small strides this season, maybe moving up a spot or two.
So far, it looks like those expectations need to be adjusted. Philadelphia leads the NBA in scoring defense, surrendering 85.6 points, while also averaging 100.9 points on offense.
After allowing more than 100 points in two of its first three games - both losses - Philadelphia has locked down on the defensive end. The highlight performance came Saturday, when the 76ers crushed the Toronto Raptors 97-62. Philadelphia held Toronto to 32 percent shooting and forced 17 turnovers.
Coach Doug Collins was able to give his players plenty of rest with the large lead, keeping them healthy for this week, when the Indiana game kicks off a stretch of three games in as many days.
They'll want to start this stretch off on the right foot.
Pick: 76ers
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets (-13.5, 191.5)
The New Orleans Hornets started out just fine with life after Chris Paul. They are slowly finding out that life without Paul’s main replacement, Eric Gordon, is no picnic.
The Hornets have dropped six straight (1-5 ATS) since winning their first two games of the season as Gordon has watched most of it from the bench with a knee injury. Fortunately, things are a little busy in New Orleans right now with the Saints in the playoffs and Monday’s BCS National Championship game taking the focus off the struggling Hornets for the moment.
New Orleans fell at home to Denver 96-88 on Friday and followed that up with a loss at Dallas on Saturday. The Hornets are averaging 85 points during their six-game losing streak and have not been able to match Gordon’s production with Marco Belinelli at the starting shooting guard spot. New Orleans coach Monty Williams has gone to a bigger lineup, starting both Emeka Okafor and Chris Kaman, and is giving more minutes to Al-Farouq Aminu in an effort to get more production up front.
So far at least, it isn't working.
Pick: Under
Hot Teams
-- Minnesota is 5-0 against spread as an underdog.
-- Philly won/covered their last four games. Pacers won three of their last four games.
-- Hawks covered four of their last five games.
-- Chicago won six of its last seven games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Denver won all four of its home games (3-0-1 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost five of its last seven games.
-- Nets lost seven of their last eight games (2-6 vs spread).
-- New York is 1-2 at home (0-3 vs spread). Bobcats lost six of last seven games, but win was against Knicks.
-- Detroit lost its last three games, by 16-23-23 points.
-- Hornets lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread).
Totals
-- Five of last six Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Indiana road games went over total.
-- All five Atlanta road games stayed under total.
-- Six of eight Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Last four Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.
Wear and Tear
-- Wolves: 6th game/9 nites. Raptors: 6th game/9 nites/
-- Pacers: 3rd game/4 nites. 76ers: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Hawks: 10th game/14 nites. Nets: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Bobcats: 4th game/6 nites. Knicks: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Pistons: 4th game/6 nites. Bulls: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Hornets: 6th game/9 nites. Nuggets: 7th game/10 nites.
MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at TORONTO (3 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 37-62 ATS (-31.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA (6 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 65-95 ATS (-39.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 4-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA (6 - 3) at NEW JERSEY (2 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=91 points/game since 1996.
NEW JERSEY is 73-99 ATS (-35.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 67-87 ATS (-28.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
NEW JERSEY is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-2 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE (2 - 6) at NEW YORK (4 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 69-43 ATS (+21.7 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 5-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 4-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT (2 - 6) at CHICAGO (7 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 61-45 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS (2 - 6) at DENVER (6 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) after a division game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 114-158 ATS (-59.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Minnesota is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
INDIANA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Indiana is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing Indiana
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
ATLANTA vs. NEW JERSEY
Atlanta is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Atlanta's last 24 games
New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
New Jersey is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
CHARLOTTE vs. NEW YORK
Charlotte is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
New York is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Charlotte
New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Charlotte
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 2-14-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Denver
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The League is 0-12 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since March 25, 2011 at home after playing the Raptors. Active with Indiana.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pistons are 12-0 OU (16.7 ppg) since February 02, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:
The Pistons are 7-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since February 13, 2011 after losing the previous matchup in which Ben Gordon scored fewer than 10 points.
CHOICE TREND:
The Knicks are 9-0 ATS (4.5 ppg) since January 19, 2009 at home on Monday after playing on Friday and Saturday.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Nuggets are 0-7-1 OU (-9.5 ppg) since March 16, 2010 when playing the first game of at least a three game home stand.
MINNESOTA at TORONTO
MINNESOTA: 26-13 OVER in road games after playing a road game
TORONTO: 40-19 OVER after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game
INDIANA at PHILADELPHIA
INDIANA: 8-18 ATS off a home win
PHILADELPHIA: 13-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
ATLANTA at NEW JERSEY
ATLANTA: 61-42 UNDER in all games
NEW JERSEY: 2-12 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more
CHARLOTTE at NEW YORK
CHARLOTTE: 107-74 OVER when playing 6 or more games in 10 days
NEW YORK: 24-12 OVER as a home favorite
DETROIT at CHICAGO
DETROIT: 33-19 UNDER in home games
CHICAGO: 14-4 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite
NEW ORLEANS at DENVER
NEW ORLEANS: 74-103 ATS after a division game
DENVER: 8-0 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points