Monday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+3, 192.5)
Miami had a four-game winning streak snapped while losing by 16 points to Oklahoma City. The Heat committed 21 turnovers and fell to 15-10 on the road. Miami is 1-1 during a stretch where five of six games are away from home and coach Erik Spoelstra is looking for a turnaround over the next week.
“We’ve been disappointed in our play on the road in general since the All-Star break,” Spoelstra said.
Indiana notched a season-high for points in the 125-104 road victory over the Bucks. The Pacers scored at least 28 points in each quarter and committed only 10 turnovers in what was their third game in three nights.
Expect the Heat to take their frustrations out on the Pacers on Monday. Dwyane Wade didn't take kindly to Kendrick Perkins hanging off him on a dunk during the game and D-Wade refused to talk to reporters about his lack of shots in the fourth quarter against the Thunder.
Pick: Heat -3
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks (-6, 207.5)
Not even Milwaukee residents want to see the Bucks in the playoffs but the New York Knicks can't seem to gain any breathing room for the final postseason spot in the East because of those pesky Bucks.
The Bucks are 7-2 over their last nine games and scoring about 110 points per night during the hot spell. And that's without getting much production from newly acquired scoring guard Monta Ellis.
The Knicks are 6-1 since Mike Woodson replaced Mike D'Antoni on the bench but Milwaukee is keeping up step for step with them. Woodson is concerned about the health of Amar'e Stouddmire. The Knicks big man left Saturday's game against the Pistons because of soreness in his back.
Pick: Over
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Even though this year’s NBA product hasn’t been watchable at times, it’s been great for gamblers who love action on a daily basis and tonight’s a perfect example. Nine games are on the card, including a televised double-header on NBATV.
Let’s break them down!
Orlando at Toronto: No early line on this game due to Toronto’s injury issues (Jerryd Bayless, DeMar DeRozan). Orlando has stopped the Raptors twice this season (102-96, 92-88) but it failed to cover as favorites each time. After putting up 59 points in an embarrassing loss to Chicago last Monday, the Magic rebounded with a pair of wins and covers at home. The Raptors have been competitive (28-20 ATS) all season and they’ve showed it recently. Toronto blew a huge lead in a tough loss to Chicago (82-94) last Wednesday but it rebounded against New York (96-79) on Friday. Then on Saturday, the Raptors came up short to the Bulls (101-102) in overtime. This looks like a must-win spot for Orlando with three big games against New York, Dallas and Denver on tap.
Miami at Indiana: Miami was humbled by the Thunder (87-103) on the road last night. The Heat had no answer for Kevin Durant (28 points) and OKC slowed the game down, which is the blueprint for stopping them. The Heat are giving three points to Indiana tonight and they’ve only gone 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS in back-to-back situations this season. The Pacers are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS against the Heat this season, with the lone cover coming in a 93-91 overtime loss in South Florida on Mar. 10. The other two setbacks were double-digit blowouts.
Detroit at Washington: It’s hard to back the Pistons as short favorites on the road knowing that they’ve dropped five straight (2-3 ATS) games. However, Washington is 2-8 in its last 10 games. Nene (back) sat out last night’s loss at Boston (76-88) and is ‘questionable’ for the Wizards tonight. Considering Washington is 1-11 on zero days rest, you might want to consider the Pistons. Then again, the Wizards ripped the Pistons 98-77 on Mar. 12 as six-point road favorites. Total players saw an open of 196.5 and it’s down to 194. The Wizards’ offense has gone missing lately and that’s helped the ‘under’ cash in seven straight games. Also, this will be the third game in three nights for Washington. If you look at the Season Results for this situation, it’s hard to find a consistent betting pattern.
Boston at Charlotte: The Celtics are starting to pick it up by winning three of their last four games, including yesterday’s win over Washington. Tonight, Doc Rivers faces the back-to-back situation and Boston (6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS) has been an automatic fade, especially on the road (1-8 SU, 1-8 ATS). And if you delve into the away numbers further, the one victory came in the same building (Staples Center) against the Clippers. Do you have the stones to take Charlotte? If you do, I strongly suggest you don’t watch it!
Milwaukee at New York: This matchup is big for both teams since they’re both fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. New York has won six of seven and it seems to have taken to interim coach Mike Woodson. The Bucks are a decent team with a nice backcourt but against quality foes in the East, they’re just 3-15. That doesn’t include New York, who they’ve already beaten twice (100-86, 119-114) this season. Keep in mind that Milwaukee hasn’t seen this new-look Knicks team that slows it down and focuses on defense, which is why the Knicks are giving up six at Madison Square Garden. Milwaukee is still an ‘over’ (31-16) team but New York has seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight. More importantly, five of the last seven opponents have been held under 90 points. Oddsmakers put out a bad opener of 209 and it got hit down to 207 immediately.
Utah at New Jersey: The Jazz opened as 2 ½-point road favorites over the Nets for this matchup and after watching Utah play a quadruple-overtime game, which it loss to Atlanta (133-139), the early action has made the Nets short favorites (1.5). We understand the fatigue factor but these are pro athletes and Utah had won six in a row prior to last night’s setback, which it could’ve easily won. Are you going to play the Deron Williams vs. former team card? The Nets are 3-7 in their last 10 and wins are against the Bobcats twice and Raptors. Utah already outclassed New Jersey 104-97 on Jan. 14 and Williams had 16 points and five assists in the loss. Anything can happen in the NBA but no reason New Jersey should be favored. Keep your eye on late scratches for this game.
Denver at Chicago: The Nuggets play their second game in as many days, heading to the United Center tonight to battle the Bulls. Derrick Rose is listed as 'questionable' after missing the last six games with a groin injury. Denver is in the midst of a 1-7 ATS run following a 117-110 loss at Minnesota on Sunday, while allowing at least 110 points in each of the last four games. The Bulls are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the previous eight contests, as Chicago escaped past Toronto in overtime on Saturday, 102-101.
Sacramento at Houston: The Kings conclude their mini two-game road swing in Houston tonight, taking on a Rockets' club that has cashed in five of the last seven games. The Rockets fell short in Saturday's overtime defeat to Dallas, but Houston owns a solid 18-7 record at the Toyota Center. Sacramento was rolling at home, but consecutive losses to Utah and Golden State has slowed things down for the Kings. The Rockets rolled the Kings in the only meeting of the season, 103-89 as 8.5 point favorites in mid-January.
New Orleans at L.A. Clippers: The Clippers go for their second straight win following their disastrous three night stretch of losses to the Pacers, Thunder, and Hornets. Los Angeles can exact revenge on New Orleans tonight at Staples Center, as the Hornets stunned the Clips in Chris Paul's return to the Big Easy last Thursday, 97-90. The Hornets start a five-game swing on the West Coast, as New Orleans owns a 9-2 ATS record the previous 11 games on the highway.
Hot Teams
-- Orlando won its last three games, by 1-9-3 points, but they're 0-4 vs spread as a road favorite of 6+ points.
-- Miami won four of last five games; they're 3-5 as road favorites of 4 or less points. Pacers won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Celtics won/covered three of their last four games.
-- Bucks won/covered their last five road games. New York won/covered six of seven games under Woodson.
-- Utah won six of last seven games; they're 11-1 as a road favorite of 7 or less points, but they lost a four-OT game in Atlanta Sunday.
-- Bulls won four of their last five games; they're 5-1 as home favorites of 8 or less points.
-- Houston is 8-3 vs spread as a home favorite of 6+ points.
-- New Orleans covered nine of its last eleven road games.
Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost four of its last five games.
-- Washington lost five of its last six games. Pistons lost eight of their last nine road games.
-- Charlotte lost last three games by 25-20-13 points.
-- Nets are 3-10-1 vs spread as a home underdog.
-- Nuggets lost three of last four games; they're 1-9-1 vs spread in their last 11 games.
-- Kings lost ten of their last eleven road games (7-4 vs spread).
-- Clippers lost three of last four games, covered one of last seven.
Wear-and-Tear
-- Magic: Last two nites off. Raptors: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Heat: 3rd game/4 nites. Pacers: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Pistons: 3rd game/4 nites. Wizards: 3rd nite in row, 5th/6 nites.
-- Celtics: 4th game/5 nites. Bobcats: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Bucks: 4th game/5 nites. Knicks: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Jazz: 9th game/13 nites. Nets: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Nuggets: 3rd game/4 nites. Bulls: 2nd game/5 nites.
-- Kings: 3rd game/5 nites. Rockets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Hornets: 4th game/6 nites. Clippers: 11th game/16 nites.
Totals
-- Four of last five Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Six of Indiana's last seven games went over. Last five Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Washington games stayed under the total. Over is 11-3 in Detroit's last fourteen road games.
-- Five of last six Charlotte games went over the total. Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Last three New Jersey games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in Denver's last ten road games.
-- Five of Kings' last six road games went over the total.
-- Clippers' last seven home games stayed under the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Miami is 2-6 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Washington is 4-3 vs spread if it lost the night before.
-- Celtics are 1-7-1 vs spread on road if they played the night before.
-- Utah is 1-4 vs spread when playing second on road nite in row.
-- Nuggets are 1-4 vs spread if they lost the night before.
Armadillosports.com
ORLANDO (31 - 18) at TORONTO (16 - 33) - 3/26/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (35 - 12) at INDIANA (28 - 19) - 3/26/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (16 - 32) at WASHINGTON (11 - 37) - 3/26/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 43-62 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 138-178 ATS (-57.8 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BOSTON (26 - 22) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 39) - 3/26/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 41-56 ATS (-20.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season.
BOSTON is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-31 ATS (-23.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 42-61 ATS (-25.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CHARLOTTE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 4-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MILWAUKEE (22 - 26) at NEW YORK (24 - 25) - 3/26/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 118-96 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 23-5 ATS (+17.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-0 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 8-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH (26 - 23) at NEW JERSEY (16 - 34) - 3/26/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 57-73 ATS (-23.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 79-102 ATS (-33.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in home games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW JERSEY is 34-51 ATS (-22.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-1 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (26 - 23) at CHICAGO (40 - 10) - 3/26/2012, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SACRAMENTO (17 - 31) at HOUSTON (26 - 23) - 3/26/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 77-108 ATS (-41.8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (12 - 36) at LA CLIPPERS (27 - 21) - 3/26/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. INDIANA
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
ORLANDO vs. TORONTO
Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Orlando
DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Detroit's last 14 games on the road
Detroit is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Washington is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
BOSTON vs. CHARLOTTE
Boston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Boston is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Charlotte is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games at home
Charlotte is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
UTAH vs. NEW JERSEY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Utah is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Jersey's last 16 games at home
New Jersey is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
MILWAUKEE vs. NEW YORK
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Milwaukee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New York
New York is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
New York is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
SACRAMENTO vs. HOUSTON
Sacramento is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Sacramento is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Houston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Sacramento
DENVER vs. CHICAGO
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LA Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
ORLANDO at TORONTO
ORLANDO: 7-0 Under if home favorite L2 games
TORONTO: 15-30 ATS off road game where both teams scored 100+
MIAMI at INDIANA
MIAMI: 11-1 Over after scoring 90 pts or less BB games
INDIANA: 2-11 ATS off division win
DETROIT at WASHINGTON
DETROIT: 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
WASHINGTON: 15-28 ATS at home off double digit loss
BOSTON at CHARLOTTE
BOSTON: 1-8 ATS Away playing on back to back days
CHARLOTTE: 9-23 ATS w/ revenge
MILWAUKEE at NEW YORK
MILWAUKEE: 23-5 ATS vs. Atlantic Division
NEW YORK: 1-10 ATS if total is 200+
UTAH at NEW JERSEY
UTAH: 11-3 Over vs. Eastern Conference
NEW JERSEY: 1-4 ATS vs. Utah
DENVER at CHICAGO
DENVER: 10-5 ATS as road underdog
CHICAGO: 12-7 Over off ATS win
SACRAMENTO at HOUSTON
SACRAMENTO: 5-20 ATS Away off BB losses by 6 pts or less
HOUSTON: 12-3 ATS off division loss
NEW ORLEANS at LA CLIPPERS
NEW ORLEANS: 15-7 ATS in road games
LA CLIPPERS: 7-0 Under in March home games
Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Heat are 10-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since March 24, 1999 as a favorite when playing the second of back-to-back road games after losing the first as a dog.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Kings are 19-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since March 19, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by double digits.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Nets are 0-10 OU (-22.6 ppg) since January 07, 2011 with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Kris Humphries had a double double.
CHOICE TREND:
The Magic are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since February 23, 2011 with at least one day of rest when they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points in their last game.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Rockets are 10-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since February 22, 2011 with at least one day of rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.