What Bettors Need to Know: Monday's NBA Playoffs Action
By Covers.com
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-9.5, 184)
THE STORY: One game in, and it looks like any optimism the New York Knicks had about stealing a first-round series from the Miami Heat has been wiped away. Not only were the seventh-seeded Knicks thoroughly dismantled in a 100-67 Game 1 loss, they also lost their perimeter defensive stopper when Iman Shumpert went down with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The second-seeded Heat showed off their defensive prowess in Game 1, forcing 27 turnovers.
ABOUT THE KNICKS: New York came into the series with some confidence due to the way it finished the regular season. Carmelo Anthony was especially strong in April, averaging just under 30 points. With Anthony at a superstar level, Amar'e Stoudemire rounding back into shape and Shumpert and Tyson Chandler anchoring the defense, the Knicks at least expected to be competitive. But Anthony shot 3 for 15 and Chandler and Shumpert were each held scoreless in the opener. Baron Davis, who missed the first half of the regular season after back surgery, was limited to 17 minutes after experiencing stiffness in his back. New York ended up shooting 35.7 percent from the floor, with J.R. Smith the only player managing more than 11 points.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami put it away early on Saturday, outscoring the Knicks 57-29 in the second and third quarters to coast to the finish. LeBron James handled the bulk of the scoring in the first half and finished with 32 points on 10-of-14 shooting. But his most significant contribution may have come as one of the several players swarming Anthony and forcing him to catch the ball further away from the basket. The Heat scored 24 of the final 26 points in the second quarter and scored a franchise record 38 points off turnovers en route to the punishing win.
TRENDS:
- Miami is 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games.
- The under is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between the two teams.
- New York is 19-7 against the spread in its last 26.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Knicks have lost 11 straight playoff games dating back to 2001. It matches the second-longest streak in NBA history behind Memphis’ 12-game skid from 2004-06.
2. James has scored 30 or more points in 41 of his 93 career playoff games.
3. New York’s 67 points Saturday matched a franchise playoff low.
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (-9, 187.5)
THE STORY: The Orlando Magic pulled off a stunning victory in the series opener and look for a second consecutive road win when they play the Indiana Pacers on Monday. Sixth-seeded Orlando scored the game’s final 11 points while rallying for an 81-77 victory. Jason Richardson’s fifth 3-pointer of the contest represented the go-ahead shot. Third-seeded Indiana now faces the possibility of going down 2-0 despite Orlando being without Dwight Howard for the playoffs.
ABOUT THE MAGIC: There were a lot of naysayers about Orlando’s chances of winning this series and it didn’t take long for the Magic to point that out after winning the opener. Glen Davis, who had 16 points and 13 rebounds, was particularly vocal. “It is huge to go out there and get Game 1 in their place,” Davis said. “How their back’s against the wall and they’ve got to win Game 2. We’re trying to get every game we can. We’re not trying to slow down. We’re not trying to be complacent.” Richardson made five of Orlando’s nine 3-pointers and had 17 points along with Jameer Nelson.
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana shot just 34.5 percent in Game 1. The Pacers missed their final nine shots and went scoreless over the final 4:05. Forward David West scored a game-high 19 points and center Roy Hibbert blocked a career-high nine shots, one off the playoff record shared by Utah’s Mark Eaton (1985) and Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon (1990). Giving up home-court advantage was a disheartening development for the Pacers, who had played very well down the stretch. “In one game, you give up what you played all season for,” West said. “We talked about how good this team was, how dangerous they were in shooting the ball. They got us.”
TRENDS:
- The under is 6-2 in Orlando's last eight road games.
- Orlando has covered in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.
- Indiana is 1-10-1 against the number in its last 11 playoff games as a favorite.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The teams combined for only 63 second-half points in Game 1.
2. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger scored 17 points in the opener, but was just 7-of-20 shooting and committed five turnovers.
3. Richardson connected on five or more 3-pointers three times in the regular season.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5, 194.5)
THE STORY: It has taken just 47 minutes, 58 1/2 seconds for the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder to recreate the drama of last season's Western Conference finals. Kevin Durant's miracle shot with 1.5 seconds left in the fourth quarter gave the Thunder the win in Game 1, and they'll look to head to Dallas with a 2-0 lead when the teams renew acquaintances Monday night. The Thunder won just once in last year's conference finals.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas reached last year's finals by orchestrating a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks to upend the Thunder. Saturday night, it was the Mavericks on the receiving end of a stunning comeback as they failed to hold on to a late seven-point advantage. Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 11 points in the final five minutes to keep the Mavericks ahead, was gutted. "It's tough. This is definitely as tough of a loss as you can get," he said. "But if a team can recover it, it's an experienced one and we definitely have a lot of older guys who have been through a lot."
ABOUT THE THUNDER: It wasn't the prettiest winning shot ever hit, but Durant and the Thunder will gladly take it. With the clock winding down and Oklahoma City down one, Durant took the ball to the free-throw line before uncoiling an awkward jumper that bounced high off the front of the rim before deflecting off the backboard and falling straight into the hoop. The shot left teammate James Harden impressed. "It was a great shot," Harden said. "It saved the game for us. I don't think we played well … but he saved us at the end." Durant, the three-time defending NBA scoring champion, finished with 25 points.
TRENDS:
- The road time is 19-6-1 against the number in this matchup.
- Oklahoma City has dropped four straight against the spread
- The over is 4-1 in Dallas' last five road games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Durant, Harden, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka combined to score 94 of the Thunder's 99 points in Game 1. Thabo Sefolosha had the other five.
2. The Mavericks had a final chance to win Game 1 but had no timeouts - forcing them to inbound from their own baseline - and couldn't get a shot off.
3. Jason Terry scored 20 points for Dallas but had zero in the second half.
Oddsmakers adjust to D-Rose
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
You could almost hear every digital board across Las Vegas change simultaneously when Derrick Rose tore his ACL late in the Bulls first round playoff game Saturday against the 76ers. The sports books either took the NBA futures off the board immediately or rapidly updated their numbers because without Rose playing, the Bulls chances of winning the NBA title go from very strong to a very small chance.
The LVH Super Book gets into the habit of taking down future prices when the day’s first game starts and then re-setting them first thing the next morning. They miss a little business on the weekend because of the early start times, but it’s events like happened Saturday that keeps them on the cautious side.
“We take down all of our futures while live playoff games are going on for all sports just because of possible injury situations that can occur and completely change the dynamics of a particular team,“ said LVH assistant manager Jeff Sherman who raised the Bulls NBA title odds from 4/1 up to 12/1 due the Rose injury. “It helps us stay protected from bettors rushing to the windows trying to bet odds on other teams at very advantageous prices.
“In this case, it’s one of the most important players in the playoffs and we adjusted all the odds with the assumption that the Heat now have a much clearer path through the East.”
The Bulls were the second choice (4/1) to win the title behind the Heat (8/5) and just above the Thunder (9/2) and Spurs (9/2) prior to the injury. But now with Rose out of the Bulls picture, everything has changed in both conferences with the Heat now 5/4, Thunder 7/2 and the Spurs 4/1.
The biggest beneficiary according to the odds is the Celtics who have now been dropped from 20/1 down to 15/1 to win the title and 10/1 down to 6/1 to win the East. The Heat are now a massive minus-225 favorite (Bet $225 to win $100) to come out of the East.
The Bulls had been cautious with their reigning MVP all season in hopes of having Rose completely healthy for the playoffs. He only played in 39 of the 66 regular season games with a variety of injuries. Despite the Bulls playing well without Rose -- at times looking like they didn’t miss Rose at all, Sherman doesn’t like their chances at all moving forward.
“This is a big blow for the Bulls, not just from missing his contributions on the floor, but also from the mental side, said Sherman. “You could just see the deflated look on all the players faces after the injury.”
Now that the Bulls know what’s in store for them, that there's no chance of Rose joining them the rest of the way, it should be interesting watching what happens and who steps up to take his place. All season they knew Rose was close to coming back and taking over the reins of his team, now they are on their own which certainly changes the complexion of the team.
"I think we all feel awful for him," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said after Sunday's practice. "Derrick's not only a great player, he's a great teammate, he's a great person, but it's not a death sentence. It's not a death sentence for him, it's not a death sentence for our team. He's going to come back. He'll come back better than ever. It's just the way it is and we've got to deal with."
The only positive to come out of the injury for the organization is that they’re plenty prepared for playing without Rose who was almost non-existent on the floor since the All-Star break. Make a note that Chicago did go 18-9 without the duties of Rose this season.
The bookmakers are also plenty prepared moving forward because they've had plenty of experience in making lines of the Bulls this season without Rose. For Tuesday's tame 2 at Chicago, the Bulls were posted as six-point favorites, a drop off from the Game 1 number of 3½-points.
LVH Super Book ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP (Posted after Rose Injury)
HEAT 5/4
BULLS 12/1
MAVERICKS 50/1
THUNDER 7/2
LAKERS 12/1
CELTICS 15/1
SPURS 4/1
MAGIC 100/1
NUGGETS 60/1
GRIZZLIES 20/1
KNICKS 60/1
HAWKS 50/1
76ERS 300/1
PACERS 50/1
CLIPPERS 40/1
JAZZ 200/1
ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE
HEAT 4/9
BULLS 9/2
CELTICS 6/1
MAGIC 40/1
KNICKS 25/1
HAWKS 20/1
76ERS 150/1
PACERS 20/1
ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE
MAVERICKS 25/1
THUNDER 7-5
LAKERS 6/1
SPURS 3/2
NUGGETS 30/1
GRIZZLIES 10/1
CLIPPERS 20/1
JAZZ 100/1
ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP (Prior to Rose Injury)
HEAT 8/5
BULLS 4/1
MAVERICKS 50/1
THUNDER 9/2
LAKERS 12/1
CELTICS 20/1
SPURS 9/2/
MAGIC 200/1
NUGGETS 60/1
GRIZZLIES 25/1
KNICKS 40/1
HAWKS 100/1
76ERS 200/1
PACERS 25/1
CLIPPERS 40/1
JAZZ 200/1
ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE
HEAT 5/7
BULLS 3/2
CELTICS 10/1
MAGIC 100/1
KNICKS 20/1
HAWKS 50/1
76ERS 100/1
PACERS 10/1
ODDS TO WIN 2011-2012 NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE
MAVERICKS 25/1
THUNDER 6/5
LAKERS 6/1
SPURS 6/5
NUGGETS 30/1
GRIZZLIES 12/1
CLIPPERS 20/1
JAZZ 100/1
NBA Preview
Knicks @ Heat -- Would be nice to see some competitive spirit from a New York squad that gave up 32-2 run in Game 1, and is 0-4 vs Miami this season, losing by 10-8-14-33 points- they're 2-11 overall in last 13 series tilts. Last six series games stayed under total. Knicks lost seven of last eight visits to Miami, losing by 5-17-22-8-10-14-33 points, and now Shumpert is out for year (knee). Will the Knicks compete? New York covered four of last seven games as an underdog.
Magic @ Pacers -- Orlando's 81-77 win in Game 1 was ninth in last ten games with Indiana, winning last six in this building; usually when team takes 24 3's and 11 foul shots, its a bad sign, but Magic was 9-24 from arc and Indiana missed nine FTs (13-22) in close game. Pressure now on Pacer squad that hasn't won playoff series since 2005. Four of last six series games went over the total. Hibbert had nine blocked shots, which is why Orlando's 9-24 from arc was essential for the win.
Mavericks @ Thunder -- Best of the eight Game 1's was Thunder's win in Game 1, with OC coming back from down 7 with 2:25 left to win by a points- they've won four of five series meetings this year, winning by 2-4-1 in three games played in this gym. Terry was 8-10 for Dallas, 4-5 on arc, but Mavericks have now lost last five road games, losing by 4-2-10-17-1 points. Three of last four series games stayed under total. Dallas was only Game 1 loser that led their game at halftime.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder escaped with a win over visiting Dallas in the opener of its Western Conference quarterfinal series. Westbrook finished as the top scorer with 28 points but Durant sealed the deal hitting a 15-foot jumper at the buzzer giving OKC the 98-97 victory and 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. OKC has now beaten Dallas in four of five since being eliminated by Mavericks in the Western Conference finals last season. The point differential over the five games has been a miniscule +3 for Durant and company with Thunder 1-4 against-the-spread over the span. But, the betting market still has Thunder -6.5 point favorite for game-two in Oklahoma City which puts them in dangerous betting territory. OKC is currently on a 2-6 ATS slide laying eight or less, on a 1-10 ATS skid vs Southwest opponents and have a 0-7 ATS drought going at home as favorites vs Mavericks who just happen to be ridding a profitable 9-1-1 ATS mark it's last eleven second season games as an underdog.
NEW YORK (36 - 31) at MIAMI (47 - 20)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 83-67 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO (38 - 29) at INDIANA (42 - 25)
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
INDIANA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 7-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 10-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (36 - 31) at OKLAHOMA CITY (48 - 19)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 137-114 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 93-74 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 50-35 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 140-107 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 10-7 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 9-8 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing Miami
New York is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
ORLANDO vs. INDIANA
Orlando is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indiana
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Orlando
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
DALLAS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Dallas is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Dallas
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New York at Miami
New York: 11-2 ATS away off BB road games
Miami: 19-9 Under off a win by 20+ points
Orlando at Indiana
Orlando: 15-5 Under in playoff games
Indiana: 1-10 ATS off BB home games
Dallas at Oklahoma City
Dallas: 20-7 ATS in playoff games
Oklahoma City: 8-22 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The NBA playoffs started this past weekend and those betting the opening eight games saw some highs, lows and arguably one of the toughest losses in Memphis last night. Then again, if you’ve been following the Association this season, which has been unwatchable at times, last night’s finish between the Grizzlies and Clippers shouldn’t surprise you at all. But if you had the Clippers, we extend you belated holiday greetings!
Despite that setback, home teams managed to go 6-2 through the first eight games with Indiana being the other host to come up short in Game 1. Similar to the Grizzlies, the Pacers also collapsed down the stretch to Magic and allowed them to steal the victory.
If it wasn’t for the Clips, the favorites would’ve swept the board on Sunday. Still, the ‘chalk’ has gone 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread, with Oklahoma City being the only favorite to win and not cover the number.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 through the first eight and as expected, the oddsmakers have adjusted the totals for the majority of the second installments.
For tonight, three more games with teams playing on one day of rest. With the help of our VegasInsider.com experts, let’s break down the card.
New York at Miami
The Heat posted the biggest victory over the weekend as they demolished the Knicks 100-67 as nine-point home favorites on Saturday. The margin was only six points (24-18) after the first quarter but Miami outscored New York 57-19 in the second and third for the easy victory. Miami shot a high percentage (48.6) and was aided with 33 free-throw attempts compared to only 11 for the Knicks. LeBron James led all scorers with 32 points, while the Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony was held in check for 11 points, five of them coming from the stripe.
Miami opened as a 10-point favorite for Game 2 and you can argue it should be higher. The Heat are 4-0 versus New York this season and the wins were by 10, 14, 8 and 33 this past Saturday. The Knicks haven’t scored more than 89 points in the four encounters, plus they won’t have rookie Iman Shumpert (knee) for the rest of the playoffs either. Landry Fields will start in his place in the already depleted backcourt.
The ‘under’ has cashed in all four meetings between the pair this season and the number for Game 2 is hovering around 184 points, which is three points (187) lower than the total on Game 1. Total players should note that the Heat have seen the ‘under’ go 14-3 in April.
TNT will provide national coverage at 7:05 p.m. ET
Orlando at Indiana
As mentioned above, the Pacers collapsed on Saturday to the Magic as they failed to score a single point in the final four minutes. Indiana couldn’t buy a shot (34.5%) from the field and it was horrendous from the free-throw line (13-of-22) as well. What’s impressive is that the Orlando played so well on defense without the duties of All-Star center Dwight Howard. The Magic easily covered as 9 ½-point favorites and they also cashed 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) odds on the money line. Game 1 went ‘under’ the closing total of 192 but it was a little misleading as the pair put up 95 points in the first-half only to see a combined 63 points in the final 24 minutes.
Oddsmakers have the Pacers listed as 9 ½-point favorites for Monday and according to VI expert Marc Lawrence and his database, Indiana should rebound in Game 2. Lawrence explained, “Top three seeds playing off a Game 1 loss in which they lost to the spread by 12 or more points are 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 ATS when favored by six or more points in this role in the following game.”
The total was adjusted from 192 in Game 1 down to 187 for 182. And you can make a case that value is with the ‘over’ considering both teams played at a decent pace (81, 87 shots) in Game 1. Plus, Indiana’s offense has been held under 80 points on two other occasions this season and they responded off those poor efforts with 96 and 103 points. And you know Orlando isn’t going to shy away from chucking 3-pointers and its best gunner, Ryan Anderson, only had five points in Game 1.
This game will tip-off at 7:35 p.m. ET, with NBATV providing coverage.
Dallas at Oklahoma City
The last game on Monday’s board is expected to the most competitive and probably the toughest to handicap. Do you back the defending champions Dallas Mavericks off Saturday’s heartbreaking loss (98-99) or do you expect Oklahoma City to come out clicking on all cylinders?
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Joe Nelson believes the value on the line is with the home team. “Even though Game 1 was a tight affair, Dallas is now just 13-21 on the road this season. The line is almost two points lower for Game 2, and most would expect the Thunder to come out more focused and give a complete effort on Monday,” said Nelson.
While Nelson makes us aware about the road woes for Dallas, it’s hard to argue giving points with an Oklahoma City squad that is clearly struggling. The Thunder closed the regular season with an 8-7 record (6-9 ATS) in April and all seven of the losses were against playoff teams and the eight victories versus non-playoff teams. OKC has alternated wins and losses in its last five games, so you could assume a setback in Game 2 if you believe that trend carries into Monday. If you do, Dallas can be bought at 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250) on the money-line for tonight.
The oddsmakers made another total adjustment here, pushing the number up to 194 from 192 and they clearly didn’t watch the game. The pace wasn’t fast (78, 79 shots), plus both teams combined for 16 bombs (48 points) from 3-point land and 37 points off the charity stripe. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in the five meetings this season and if Dallas has any shot of winning this series, it knows that it has to slow down the game.
TNT will conclude Monday’s coverage with this game that starts at 9:35 p.m. ET.