Heat-Celtics Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics
Series Price: Miami -500, Boston +400
Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1 (All games start at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Game 1 - Monday, May 28
Game 2 - Wednesday, May 30
Game 3 - Friday, June 1
Game 4 - Sunday, June 3
Game 5* - Tuesday, June 5
Game 6* - Thursday, June 7
Game 7* - Saturday, June 9
Skinny: The Heat and Celtics are no strangers to each other in the postseason. Boston eliminated Miami in five games two years ago in the opening round, while the Heat returned the favor in the conference semifinals last May in five games. This time around, the two rivals meet for the right to advance to the NBA Finals.
Miami has taken the road many expected by advancing past New York in five games and Indiana in six games. Beating the Pacers was no easy task in the second round as power forward Chris Bosh missed the final five contests with an abdominal injury suffered in the first half of the series opener. The Heat managed to overcome a 2-1 deficit by winning the final three games, including two great performances by LeBron James (40 points and 18 rebounds in Game 4) and Dwyane Wade (41 points and 10 rebounds in Game 6). Bosh's availability is in question for this series, but the aging Celtics have their injury concern as well.
Past the big four of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett, one of Boston's most valuable pieces in the playoffs was Avery Bradley. The ex-Texas Longhorn guard turned into the defensive stopped for the Celtics throughout the final two months of the season, but injured his left shoulder for a second time in the playoffs in Game 2 against the 76ers. In spite of Bradley's absence, Boston outlasted Philadelphia in seven games of the conference semifinals, as no team won consecutive times in the entire series.
Head-to-Head Matchups: Even though the Heat eliminated the Celtics last postseason in five games, Boston pulled off retribution by beating Miami three of four times in this lockout-shortened campaign. The first meeting between these rivals came back in late December, the second game for each squad of the season. The Heat held off the Celtics, 115-107, but Boston cashed as 9 ½-road underdogs to drop to 0-2 overall on the season. Pierce sat out for Boston with a bruised right heel, as the Heat lit up the C's for 69 points in the opening half. The key off the Miami bench turned out to be Norris Cole, as the rookie from Cleveland State scored a career-high 20 points, while Wade and James combined to score 50 points.
The Celtics would take over the remainder of the season series as Boston won each of the final three meetings, all in the month of April. Boston made Miami look like fools on April 1 at TD Garden with a convincing 91-72 beatdown of the Heat as four-point home 'dogs. The Heat was limited to just 28 second-half points, as Boston's 31-12 third-quarter advantage put the game never in doubt. Rondo racked up another triple-double with 16 points, 11 boards, and 14 assists, while Boston's defense clamped down by holding Miami to 35% shooting from the floor.
Boston put together its most impressive shooting performance of the season in South Florida by knocking down 61% of its field-goal attempts in a 115-107 triumph on April 10. The C's won outright as 7 ½-point underdogs, while the two teams eclipsed the 'over' for the fifth straight meeting at the American Airlines Arena. Boston knocked down nine treys in 14 tries, including a trio of three-pointers from Pierce, who scored a team-high 27 points.
The last meeting of the season didn't prove much on either side as James, Wade, and Bosh sat out for the Heat in a 78-66 defeat at TD Garden on April 24. The Celtics cashed as seven-point favorites even though Garnett, Rondo, and Allen all rested. Only four players scored in double-figures combined, but seven Celtics tallied at least seven points in the victory.
Betting Notes: The Heat is riding a red-hot 9-2 SU/ATS stretch as a home favorite the last 11 games, while the 'under' is 10-4 the previous 14 contests at the AAA. Since mid-February, Miami owns a profitable 13-9 ATS record in the road 'chalk' role, while holding eight straight opponents to below 100 points on the highway.
Boston didn't respond well in the role off an away underdog by winning just eight of 25 times, while posting a 13-12 ATS ledger. However, the Celtics put together a 12-5 ATS record as a road 'dog with rest, which will be the case in this series. The C's were a home 'dog seven times in the regular season, as the 'under' cashed five times, while Boston finished 4-0-1 ATS in its final five games when getting points at TD Garden.
Series Outlook: The Celtics found a way to advance to the conference finals for the third time in six seasons, but their lack of depth will likely be their biggest enemy. Miami is rested heading into the opener after last playing on Thursday night, while the team hopes to get Bosh back sometime in this series. James and Wade are playing the best basketball of their careers, as the Heat will advance to the Finals in six games.
Celtics at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-8, 180)
THE STORY: The Miami Heat are looking to return to the NBA Finals for the second straight season against a Boston Celtics roster dealing with a short turnaround. The Celtics get just one day of rest before opening the Eastern Conference finals in Miami n Monday. The Heat completed a six-game series win over the Indiana Pacers on Thursday while Boston dispatched of the Philadelphia 76ers in Saturday’s Game 7. The Celtics could have tired legs in the opener while Miami will be without injured Chris Bosh.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Point guard Rajon Rondo posted his ninth career playoff triple-double with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in Boston’s 85-75 series-clinching win against the 76ers. He scored 11 of his points in the final four minutes after forward Paul Pierce fouled out. Rondo averaged 18.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Heat in the regular season but didn’t record a single steal. “We feel we can beat Miami,” Rondo said. “We got to this point – there’s no doubt in my mind we can. We’ve got to go down there and take care of business.” Forward Kevin Garnett has played superb and has nine double-doubles in the postseason.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Bosh strained a lower abdominal muscle in the opening game of the Indiana series on May 13 and it remains unclear when he will return. Bosh has begun light conditioning work but isn’t considered close to hitting the court. “It’s my responsibility right now to prepare this team without him,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “If and when it gets to a point where he starts to emerge into the picture, we would gladly deal with that because we’re a more dangerous offensive team and a more dangerous defensive team when he’s in the mix.” Guard Dwyane Wade averaged 33 points and forward LeBron James averaged 32.7 points over the final three games of the Pacers series.
TRENDS:
*Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
*Home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
*Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Miami.
*Over is 4-0 in Celtics' last four games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Boston won three of the four regular-season meetings and beat Miami three times in April. The Heat notched a home win over the Celtics in December.
2. This is the third straight season in which the two teams have met in the playoffs. Miami eliminated Boston in five games in last season’s second round and the Celtics defeated the Heat in five games in the first round in 2010.
3. James (10) and Wade (eight) have combined for 18 20-point outings in the postseason.
NBA Preview
Celtics @ Heat -- Very fast turnaround for older Celtic team that played Game 7 vs Philly 48 hours ago, but they did beat Miami three times in a row in April, after losing first meeting 115-107 in Miami Dec 27. Heat is still without Bosh and drifted early in Indiana series (trailed 2-1 before they started to play well), but overconfidence against an older Celtic team shouldn't be an issue after they lost 91-72/78-66 in two visits to Boston last month (also lost 115-107 at home to Celtics).
Armadillosports.com
BOSTON (47 - 32) at MIAMI (54 - 23)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less this season.
MIAMI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 14-7 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 14-7 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Boston at Miami
Boston: 8-1 ATS off a combined score of 160 points or less
Miami: Miami 8-19 ATS off 3+ Overs
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
After an uninspiring series win over Philly the Boston Celtics get another shot at LeBron and the Miami Heat. The aging Celtics did take 3-of-4 meetings this season (4-0 ATS) but that's irrelevant at this time of the season. Celtics netting 88.1 PPG don't have the offense to hang with the Heat who have racked up 95.5 per/game these playoffs and 107.0 the past three on the floor. With James and Wade rested along with playing their best basketball of the season look for Miami to inflict serious damage in the opener at American Airlines Arena where Heat have outscored visitors by 15.6 points/game this second season (5-1 SU/ATS). Keep in mind Heat whipped C's by 10.0 points/game in last years post season tussles in South Beach (3-0 SU/ATS). Stay home with Miami knowing Heat are on a 4-1 ATS stretch in post season opener's and that Celtics are on an 0-5 ATS skid in game-ones. Other trends of note: Heat take to the court riding a red-hot 15-5 ATS stretch as a playoff favorite, Celtics enter on a 3-7 ATS skid as a playoff underdog.