What Bettors Need to Know: Monday's NBA Playoff Action
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz (+8, 198.5)
THE STORY: In order for the Utah Jazz to extend their first-round series with the San Antonio Spurs, they'll need to figure out how to win a quarter. Utah goes into the fourth game of the best-of-seven Monday night having been outscored in 10 of the 12 quarters the teams have played so far. The Spurs, who have outscored Utah by 62 points through the first three games, can join the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round with a victory Monday.
ABOUT THE SPURS: None of the other seven first-round showdowns has been this one-sided. The Spurs are averaging an incredible 107.3 points per game - 7.5 more than the runner-up Thunder - while limiting the Jazz to just 88. San Antonio is shooting better than 51 percent for the series, with Utah having no answer for the duo of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Duncan says he expects the Jazz to make things difficult in Game 4. "We know they're going to come out," he said. "They have a lot of pride and they're going to come out and it's going to be a tough closeout game, especially here in Utah."
ABOUT THE JAZZ: Utah's best chance to make a statement in the series came late in Game 3, when the club found itself within five points in the fourth quarter before yielding a back-breaking 9-2 run. Jazz center Al Jefferson, making his first playoff appearance since 2005, says his team has had no margin for error at any point in the series. "We can't make mistakes," he said. "We've got to play a perfect game to even have a chance to beat a team like this. "We made too many mistakes during the crunch time of the game and they made us pay every time."
TRENDS:
- Utah is 1-5-1 against the spread in its last six meetings with San Antonio.
- San Antonio is 17-6-3 ATS in its last 26 road games.
- The under is 5-0 in Utah's last five games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. No NBA team has ever rallied from 3-0 down to win a best-of-seven series.
2. Jefferson leads the Jazz in playoff scoring (15.9 ppg) but is the only Utah regular shooting better than 43.5 percent from the field.
3. The Spurs have dominated despite the struggles of G/F Manu Ginobili, who is averaging just 5.7 points on 31.8 percent shooting so far.
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5, 182.5)
THE STORY: While the "eye test" says the Memphis Grizzlies have been the better team, the Los Angeles Clippers aren't buying it. An inability to protect fourth-quarter leads has resulted in two one-point losses and left the Grizzlies staring at a 2-1 series deficit entering Game 4 Monday night in Los Angeles. Though it was not on the magnitude of the stunning 27-point comeback in Game 1, the Clippers erased a seven-point fourth-quarter lead Saturday by holding Memphis without a field goal for seven minutes.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Marc Gasol's stat line in Game 3 (11 points, 10 rebounds) suggests a solid performance, but the 7-foot-1 center attempted only five shots – his second-lowest total of the season. Memphis appeared in control after Gasol's lone fourth-quarter shot provided a six-point edge with 7:11 to play, but its next field goal came with 13 seconds left. Facing a Clippers front line that is underwhelming physically, the Grizzlies know they need to do a better job of exploiting Gasol's size advantage. "We've got to get big fella the ball and just play," said forward Zach Randolph, who scored 17 points – his second-highest point total since returning from a knee injury in mid-March.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Forward Caron Butler made a surprise return to the lineup after he was expected to be out four to six weeks with a broken hand suffered in the series opener. While his teammates said Butler provided an emotional lift, guard Randy Foye offered a more tangible asset by banging home four 3-pointers and scoring 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting. He nailed the biggest shot of the game with a trey that tied it at 80-80. "Randy has ice in his veins," teammate Eric Bledsoe said. It helped make up for the ice-cold touch of Bledsoe and his teammates, who had a nightmarish performance at the free throw line, including 3 of 9 in the fourth quarter.
TRENDS:
- Los Angeles is 1-5-1 against the spread in its last seven.
- Memphis is 1-4 against the spread in its last five road games.
- The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. In a seven-game series, the team that prevails in Game 3 has gone on to win 82 percent of the time.
2. Los Angeles was 13 of 30 at the foul line. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that's the worst free-throw percentage in postseason history with a minimum of 30 attempts
3. After erupting for 20 points in Game 2, Memphis sixth man O.J. Mayo committed five turnovers and scored six points on 1-for-8 shooting Saturday.
NBA Preview
Spurs (3-0) @ Jazz -- Spurs won nine of last ten games vs Utah, winning four of last five played here by 8-4-10-12 points. Everyone, epecially the Jazz, knows this series is over, just a question of when; Utah was just 14-26 from foul line in last game. San Antonio has won its last 13 games (12-0-1 vs spread) with all three games in this series staying under total. Not even sure what else to type here, other than Utah shot more foul shots every game, and still lost all three, by 15-21-12 points.
Grizzlies @ Clippers (2-1) -- LA shot at least 5.3% higher from floor in first three games, Grizzlies made 60-78 on foul line in last couple games, LA just 26-48 (13-30 in Game 3). Clippers won six of last eight series games, with home team winning seven of last nine, five of six this year. Gutty Butler (broken hand) played 22 minutes in Game 3; hard to put a value on that kind of toughness. Memphis lost last four visits here, by 7-7-1-16 points. Clipper bench was +24 in Saturday's win.
Armadillosports.com
SAN ANTONIO (53 - 16) at UTAH (36 - 33)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-20 ATS (+24.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS (42 - 27) at LA CLIPPERS (42 - 27)
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 90-71 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 134-186 ATS (-70.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 7-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-6 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO vs. UTAH
San Antonio is 12-0-1 ATS in its last 13 games
San Antonio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Utah
Utah is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
MEMPHIS vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Memphis's last 10 games on the road
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis
LA Clippers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
San Antonio at Utah
San Antonio: 8-0 ATS off 3+ ATS wins as a favorite
Utah: 17-4 Under in Game Four of a playoff series
Memphis at LA Clippers
Memphis: 35-19 ATS playing their second game in five days
LA Clippers: 17-34 ATS vs. Southwest Division opponents
Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Thirty games of the NBA playoffs are in the books and it’s safe to say that things have gone as expected, outside of the key injuries to Chicago and perhaps Oklahoma City’s sweep over Dallas was a little surprising.
Despite those two series, the contenders have taken care of the pretenders and most would expect the semifinals to be more competitive than the quarterfinals, hopefully.
Overall, the favorites have gone 22-8 straight up and 16-14 against the spread over this span and we haven’t seen many shockers. Orlando owns the biggest upset so far, knocking off Indiana 81-77 in Game 1 as a 9½-point road underdog and New York kept its playoff hopes alive yesterday by beating Miami 89-87 as a 7½-point underdog in Game 4.
On Tuesday, we could see four more series finish. Indiana should stop Orlando and while the Nuggets have shown some grit, they appear to be too raw for the experienced Los Angeles Lakers. Boston is starting to show its championship form and Atlanta is acting like Atlanta.
If you’re looking to take a shot with any of these matchups, perhaps Chicago on the adjusted series price (+425) might intrigue you. The team has had trouble scoring and the injuries are huge but the 76ers aren’t exactly an elite club. If the Bulls hold serve in Game 5, you could have a nice hedge set up for Game 6 in Philadelphia.
Tonight, we focus on two more games in the Western Conference.
San Antonio at Utah
If you’ve been riding the San Antonio express lately, you’ve been seeing the cashier early and often! The Spurs have won and covered 13 straight games and that includes three victories over the Jazz in their opening round series. For Game 4, oddsmakers opened the Spurs as eight-point road favorites and the number has dropped to 7½-points at most betting shops.
Do you ride the Spurs money train or expect Utah to show some pride and at least keep it close? Considering Utah has lost the first three games by 15, 31 and 12 points, it’s hard to make an argument for the home ‘dog here.
In Saturday’s 102-90 loss, the Jazz kept it close for the first 24 minutes and only trailed by two points (50-52) at the break. The last two quarters saw San Antonio make timely shots, while Utah couldn’t buy a shot from 3-point land (31%) or the free-throw line (54%).
Total players watched the combined 192 points in Game 3 go ‘under’ the closing total of 200, which marked the third straight ‘under’ in this series. Utah has tried to pick up the pace but it hasn’t shot well from downtown and the Spurs haven’t hoisted as many 3-pointers because they’ve scored at will in the paint. The total for Game 4 is hovering between 199 and 200.
Including Saturday’s setback, Utah owns a solid 25-9 record at EnergySolutions Arena and only two of the losses came by more than tonight’s spread of eight points. The one setback was to the Spurs on Saturday and they also fell to Oklahoma City by 14 (87-101)during the regular season.
San Antonio has gone 11-7 ATS as a road favorite this season and gamblers should make a note that home underdogs are just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the playoffs. The two wins were the 76ers over the Bulls in Game 3 and yesterday’s upset by Knicks against the Heat.
Utah is listed as a 3/1 underdog (Bet $100 to win $300) for tonight and if you believe the Jazz can rip off four straight, then you should frequent 5Dimes.com. They have a series price on the Jazz at 100/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $10,000). We’ve already seen some strange stuff occur in this year’s playoffs but even that longshot doesn’t look promising.
If necessary, Game 5 will be played in San Antonio on Wednesday.
Memphis at L.A. Clippers
Of all the opening round series, this particular matchup has offered the most balance but at the same time you can make a strong argument that Memphis should be looking to close at the Clippers tonight. After blowing Game 1 at home, the Grizzlies countered with a strong win and late cover in Game 2. Then on Saturday afternoon, Memphis came up with another poor performance in the fourth quarter and allowed the Clippers to notch an 87-86 victory and 2-1 series lead.
The Grizzlies were outscored 23-15 in Game 3, which wasn’t as bad as the 22-point difference (35-13) in the final stanza of Game 1. However, it should be noted that Memphis only outscored the Clippers 30-29 in their Game 2 victory. With all that being said, it’s apparent that the Grizz have trouble closing and most would point blame to an inconsistent offense or you could look at coach Lionel Hollins and in his inability to find a solid rotation.
Despite the Grizz and Clippers taking a combined 69 free throw attempts, Saturday's 173 points never threatened the closing number of 186. What’s eye opening is that Grizzlies were 30-of-39 from the stripe, while the Clippers were a putrid 13-of-30 (43%). It should also be noted that this was the second straight game that Memphis took 39 free throws, as it converted 31 in Game 2’s win.
The total for tonight is listed at 182½ and the early betting trends have gamblers backing the ‘over.’
The Clippers failed to cover as three-point favorites in Game 3 and oddsmakers opened them as two-point favorites for Monday but the number is down to one at most places. Including the three games in this series, the home team has won five of the six matchups this season. And the one loss came in Game 1, which the Clippers stole.
If you believe Memphis can even up the series tonight, your best investment could be a play on the series price. Memphis was listed as a minus-200 favorite (Bet $200 to win $100) in the best-of-seven series over Los Angeles. After three games, the Clippers are now short favorites (-145) with the lead. Taking the Grizzlies at plus-125 (Bet $100 to win $125) is a much better play than taking the money-line (+100) in Game 4.
Game 5 will take place from Memphis on Wednesday.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
San Antonio won the first two games by 46 points combined, but Saturday up in Utah was a little tougher as visiting Spurs won 102-90 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead over Utah. Spurs with coach of the year Popovich, it's 'Big Three' and collection of castoffs, rookies look primed to close it out Monday night in Salt Lake City. Plenty of reasons to back the boys from Alamo City. The Spurs are on a 13-game win streak (12-1 ATS) netting 113.0 points/game while allowing just 95.0 per contest. Spurs have done well on foreign hardwood laying 9.5 or less posting a 15-0 SU mark with a smart 10-2-3 record at the betting window outscoring host teams by an average 12.0 points/game. Spurs on a mission should feel pretty good about their chances knowing they're 9-1 (7-2-1 ATS) last ten meetings vs. Jazz including 4-1 SU/ATS on this floor. Well to note, Spurs are also on a 14-3-1 ATS road stretch vs a team with a winning home record, on an 8-0 ATS streak off 3+ ATS wins as a favorite.