NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, April 24th, 2017

NBA Knowledge

Toronto held Antetokounmpo to 6-19 from floor, Bucks to 35 second half points in 87-76 win that even series 2-2. DeRozan bounced back with 33 points for Toronto. Bucks lost three of last four games in Canada, with losses by 22-16-6 points. Under is 7-1-1 in Bucks’ last nine games, 8-5 in Toronto’s last 13, 7-2 in last nine series games. Raptors scored 87 or less points in three of four series games. Milwaukee had lost seven of previous eight games with Toronto before this series. Raptors are 0-4 vs spread in last four home tilts.

Home side won/covered all three Wizard-Hawk games; Atlanta led Game 3 38-20 after 1st period of an easy 116-98 win- they’ve taken 109 foul shots in series, Washington only 70. Hawks were +4 in turnovers Saturday, after being -7 in each of first two games. Atlanta ended a five-game skid vs Wizards- Washington is 2-3 in last five visits here. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Wizards lost five of their last seven road games; Hawks won their last five home games, covering the last four.

Golden State is 7-0 vs Portland this season, with four wins by 12+ points; they didn’t have their coach or Durant in Game 3, trailed by 13 at half, 17 in third quarter, still won by 6- they won last four games in Oregon. Warriors won 18 of last 19 games overall, are 12-4-2 vs spread in last 18 games. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Four of last five Portland games went over. This series is basically over, just a matter of whether Trailblazers have enough pride to compete hard here and maybe still a home win, which would make them go back to Oakland to get eliminated.

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Monday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Western Conference First Round

No. 1 Golden State at No. 8 Portland

Steve Kerr informed reporters on Sunday that complications from back surgery are currently troubling to the point where it's impossible to coach. Although he's going to try and do whatever it takes to get back out there, he's out for Monday's Game 4 and presumably, the rest of this first-round series against the Trail Blazers.

Former Cavs and Lakers head coach Mike Brown, in his first year on the staff, took over for Kerr for Saturday's Game 3 win and will lead going forward. That could mean he'll be acting head coach for the remainder of the playoffs if Kerr's condition doesn't improve, but in the short-term, he's being tasked with helping the Warriors get out of this series quickly so they can go into hibernation.

Kerr would love to have some pressure-free time to heal. Kevin Durant probably could've returned after sitting out Game 2, but the organization is taking the cautious approach with his calf injury and may hold him out again. Up 3-0, there's little reason to take unnecessary risks given the threat of re-injury. Golden State wants him at 100 percent and has successfully quelled his desire to get back out there thus far. Key backup Shaun Livingston (hand) and forwards Matt Barnes (ankle) and Kevon Looney (hip) were also held out.

The spread will undoubtedly be affected if any news comes down at shootaround or prior to tip-off, so be sure to check on Durant's availability.

All these variables were also in place for Game 3, where at halftime, it certainly looked like a sense of urgency would have to kick in some tonight. Portland poured in 67 first-half points and led by 13 after a dominant first 24 minutes where they led by as many as 17 points. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum came out hot enough that it looked like they were bullying Steph Curry and Klay Thompson into surrendering that cool "Splash Brothers" nickname. They combined for 39 points on 7-for-11 from 3-point range while Curry and Thompson shot a combined 8-for-25. The Blazers bench contributed immensely, while Jusuf Nurkic provided a boost in his return from non-displaced leg fracture.

Everything then fell apart. Although McCollum and Lillard combined for 63 points, they failed to share the ball effectively, taking everyone out of their rhythm. A bench that went for 19 points and 13 boards in the first half finished with 11 and six. Thompson snapped out of his funk and scored 14 third-quarter points as Portland's lead evaporated. Curry then took over in the fourth, scoring 14 of his own in rising up to disappoint a vocal Moda Center crowd that was undoubtedly a force as the sixth man until all hope faded.

The Warriors ended up winning by six points, which yielded conflicting results against the spread depending on what time your wager was placed. Since initial reports had Durant playing in Game 3, the number climbed to seven points before coming down again when the news that Kerr wasn't coaching and Durant was being held out generated action on Portland, causing the spread to reach five. When it was announced Nurkic would be in the Blazers starting lineup, many books saw the closing figure dip to 4.5.

Nurkic gave them a boost early, but it was difficult for him to shake off the rust after weeks of inactivity. Draymond Green overcame a slow start and ended up with 9 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 6 blocks. After struggling to deal with their first taste of a truly hostile atmosphere for the first time since sweeping a road back-to-back on March 28-29 at Houston and San Antonio. Since mid-March, the Warriors are 6-0 on the road (5-0-1 ATS), so they've definitely held their own without Durant and would probably prefer to keep him sidelined for at least one more night despite how enthusiastic he is about getting back out there. Finishing off a sweep of the Blazers would likely be the only way to keep him from getting back out on the court in this first round.

Patrick McCaw has taken Durant's place in the starting lineup and has been productive, but Durant scored 32 points and grabbed 11 boards in Game 1 and would obviously make Brown's life easier. Still, Golden State has defeated Portland with different personnel all season and has survived a number of scoring flurries from the NBA's highest-scoring backcourt, which suggests the Blazers simply can't handle this group.

Even before Durant joined the Warriors, they had beaten Portland in six of seven regular-season meetings and eliminated it from last year's playoffs in five games. This season, Golden State swept the regular-season series, so it is looking to extend its winning streak to 10 in the series dating back to last year's Western Conference semis. The over is 6-3 in those games.

Eastern Conference First Round

No. 6 Milwaukee at No. 3 Toronto

There are now a number of series that are even at 2-2 in these 2017 NBA Playoffs, so this will be the first of a parade of tie-breaking Game 5s we're going to see unfold. For the Raptors, it's an odd-numbered game in this series, which should have them nervous given what's transpired thus far. The Bucks own an average margin of victory of 20.5 (100.5-80) in their wins in this series and haven't been behind yet, putting them in a great spot if they can pull off an upset here and head back home to Milwaukee for Thursday's Game 6 one win from advancing.

With so many days off between games, the team that drops this one is going to have a long time to deal with the prospect of elimination. That makes it even juicier, heightening up the desperation level for both even with the pressure residing mostly on Toronto's shoulders.

At home, as the higher seed, they need to take care of business. A loss puts them in danger of regression, going out as the victim of a first-round upset on the heels of the organization's first appearance in a conference finals.

Dwane Casey altered his starting line up for Saturday's 87-76 win, inserting small forward Norman Powell at the three while going small with DeMarre Carroll and Serge Ibaka filling out the frontcourt. 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas is now coming off the bench to better match up with the Bucks do in bringing Greg Monroe off the bench, so we'll see if that tweak continues to yield results. After shooting 5-for-7 in Toronto, Carroll went 2-for-10 in Milwaukee, missing six of his seven 3-point attempts, so he'll definitely be looking to get back on track to keep from being an offensive liability while serving as the primary defender against Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Ibaka was noticeably more aggressive in his new role as the Raps' small-ball center, shooting the ball 16 times. He came up empty on all five of his 3-point shots and is stuck in a 13-for-39 shooting slump over the past three games, so his performance will certainly be one to watch.

DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have also had wild swings in the series. DeRozan comes off a 33-point Game 4 in which he was the best player on the floor and has averaged 28.0 points in his team's wins. In the losses, he's shot 7-for-29. Similarly, Lowry has averaged 8.5 points and shot 6-for-21 in Toronto's setbacks, including 2-for-11 from 3-point range. In the victories, he's shot nearly 50 percent while averaging 20 points.

Antetokounmpo comes off his worst game of the series, shooting 6-for-19 and committing seven turnovers. His performance thus far has also been a wild rollercoaster ride since he's shot over 70 percent in Milwaukee's wins, but he can't help but be productive out there given his length and athleticism, so he's remained engaged even when shots haven't fallen.

Who steps up tonight? Will Jason Kidd get his young roster to play with reckless abandon in front of a hostile crowd and force Toronto to play tight? Will the Raptors lock in defensively and keep a Bucks offense that often gets in their own way on that side of the ball from finding a rhythm?

However things go down, oddsmakers expect another defensive battle. The books set a total of 192 on this one, the lowest in the series to date. The teams have met six times in 2017 and have seen the over connect only once when the Raptors took Game 3 106-100 in a game where both teams shot the ball confidently and put together flurries of brilliant offensive basketball. Milwaukee and Toronto shot a combined 25-for-52 from 3-point range in its last clash at the Air Canada Centre but went 42-for-134 in the other three contests. The teams shot 10-for-43 from beyond the arc on Saturday, producing the lowest-scoring game of the series as they cracked the 160-mark in the final minute.

"We played two Game 7s last year," DeRozan said after Game 4. "We played six games in the conference finals with the champs. You go back to every moment you were in and understand what needs to be done."

Neither team is scared to defend and win ugly, so expect grit to decide this one. Despite their edge in veterans and playoff experience, Toronto hasn't elicited fear from Milwaukee. That much is clear. The Raptors can't rely on any psychological edge in Game 5. They'll simply have to execute to avoid putting themselves in a major predicament.

Eastern Conference First Round

No. 4 Washington at No. 5 Atlanta

These will be the final teams to play a Game 4 in this first round. Through the first three, they've established the fact that they don't care for one another, which should make for a fun, physical encounter as the Hawks look to hold serve at home the way Washington managed to.

The Wizards looked great in pulling away from the Hawks for covers in the first two games of the series, but the Hawks turned the tables in Game 3, coming out with great intensity at home to clearly demonstrate that they're not interested in an early vacation.

Atlanta led by as many as 25 points in the first quarter of an eventual 116-98 win. That's incredibly difficult to do and requires both teams to contribute to the cause. The Wizards came out with no fight, flat, fat and happy like they had accomplished something in winning their first two home games. The Hawks came out blazing, finishing with a 38-point first that was their largest output in an opening quarter of a playoff game since 1996.

All drama regarding the outcome was removed quickly, but since they played for 48 minutes, the same can't be said for dramatics. Dennis Schroder picked Wall up full-court and thought that made a huge difference, but Wall, who shot 10-for-12 from the field, laughed off that insinuation.

Otto Porter suffered a neck injury on a third-quarter collision with Tim Hardaway Jr. and left the game, although his availability for Game 5 is no longer in question after he participated in practice on Sunday.

Dwight Howard mixed it up with his former backup Marcin Gortat, who outplayed him badly in D.C. Although Howard managed just five points, his energy level was much improved and he won himself a round against the Polish Hammer.

Markieff Morris, frustrated by a 4-for-14 shooting game where he couldn't find a rhythm due to foul trouble, came with the name-calling post-game.

"He's a crybaby. You get all the calls when youre a crybaby. That's how it went tonight."

Millsap told him to take his L and go back to the hotel, admitting that now, things had gotten "personal." He dominated the Wizards frontcourt with 29 points and 11 rebounds while Schroder added 27 points and nine assists, setting the tone as the leaders. Atlanta proved it wasn't a pushover, but it remains in a precarious position as just a 2.5-point home favorite entering tonight.

For Washington to pull the upset and return to D.C. with a 3-1 lead, it will need Bradley Beal to rediscover a shooting stroke that disappeared on him in Game 3 as he ended up 6-for-20, missing alll six of his 3-point attempts. On a forgettable Saturday for the Wizards, his outing was the worst, solidified by a minus-26 in his time on the floor. Beal couldn't have picked a less opportune time to go into a shooting slump as he's now 6-for-27 from beyond the arc in the series.

"We're going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games where you're not going to shoot the ball well. He'll bounce back. The guy's a big winner, and he's going to have to come out and make shots, hopefully next game."

Beal largely struggled against Atlanta in the regular season too. Despite the Wizards winning three of the four meetings against their Southeast rival en route to a rare division title, Beal shot just 9-for-26 from 3-point range but did average 21 points per game. Expect his performance in Game 4 to be the determining factor in whether this series winds up tied or Washington takes a commanding lead.

Monday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors (-6, 192)

ABOUT THE BUCKS (44-42 SU, 39-47 ATS, 42-42-2 O/U): Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo was down in Game 4, finishing 6-for-19 from the floor and turning it over seven times. Milwaukee lamented its inability to establish any sort of rhythm in Saturday's loss and is intent on correcting the issue in the return to Toronto. "Our tempo was extremely slow," coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Give them credit; they slowed us down. It wasn't a high-scoring game. No one could make a shot. But our tempo in that second half came to a halt. Our energy level was low, for whatever reason. We've got to fix that going into Game 5." A bright spot was Tony Snell burying half of his 10 3-point tries, which gives him 13 makes in 26 attempts from long range during the series.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (53-33 SU, 46-39-1 ATS, 45-41 O/U): DeMar DeRozan is looking more like himself and his Toronto Raptors have a chance to seize control of their Eastern Conference first-round series when they host the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 on Monday. Following a dismal Game 3 performance in which he missed all eight of his shot attempts and the Raptors lost by 27 points, DeRozan righted the ship with 33 points in a Game 4 series equalizer Saturday. Aside from DeRozan (12-for-22 from the field) and center Jonas Valanciunas (5-for-5), the rest of Toronto's players combined to shoot 30.2 percent in Game 4. Norman Powell stepped into the starting lineup and hit all three of his 3-point attempts in a 12-point showing, and he feels more prepared to help the cause going forward. "They're throwing me in to provide something with defensive toughness, energy and pace," he told the media. "It was a big game for me to come out and show them they can throw me in there whenever, and whatever happens in Game 5, I'll be ready for it whether it's coming off the bench or starting."

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 6.5-point home favorites for this pivotal Game 5 and some early Bucks' action reduced that number to -6 almost immediately. The total opened at 192.5 and dropped slightly to 192.

INJURY REPORT:

Bucks - PF J. Parker (Out For Season, knee).

Raptors - No injuries to report.

TRENDS:

* Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Bucks last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 14-3 in Raptors last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-2.5, 211.5)

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (51-34 SU, 44-40-1 ATS, 53-32 O/U): Wizards power forward Markieff Morris suggested Millsap's earlier comments helped bend the referees in his favor in Game 3. "Me, as a man, you take your wins with your losses. I take my wins with my losses all the time," Morris told reporters. "He just did more for his team. He's a crybaby. You get all the calls when you're a crybaby. That's how I look at it." Morris could stand to do more for his team on the floor instead of in the media scrum after totaling 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting in the last two games. Washington shooting guard Bradley Beal appeared to break out of his own slump with a big fourth quarter in Game 2 but fell off again in Game 3 while totaling 12 points on 6-of-20 shooting, including 0-of-6 from 3-point range. The one player producing consistently for the Wizards is All-Star point guard John Wall, who is averaging 31 points in the series after going 10-of-12 from the floor in Game 3.

ABOUT THE HAWKS (44-41 SU, 40-45 ATS, 34-49-2 O/U): The Atlanta Hawks did what they needed to do in Game 3 by protecting home court and drawing within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. The Hawks did a better job of matching Washington's physicality at home and pulled off a 116-98 win as Millsap led the way with 29 points, 14 rebounds and five assists. Millsap was asked about Morris' comments in his own postgame press conference on Saturday and shrugged off the "crybaby" label. "It definitely got personal now, yes," Millsap told reporters. "I don't care, so what. Take his loss and go back to the hotel, be ready for the next game." Millsap continues to get help on the court from point guard Dennis Schroder, who is averaging 25 points and eight assists while doing his best to keep Wall in check.

LINE HISTORY: The Hawks opened as three-point home favorites following their impressive win in Game 3 as slight home favorites. Monday's number was bet down slightly to -2.5 on Sunday evening. The total opened at 211.5 and has yet to move off the opening number.

INJURY REPORT:

Wizards - O. Porter Jr. (Probable, neck), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).

Hawks - PF E. Ilyasova (Probable, calf).

TRENDS:

* Wizards are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
* Over is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers (+7, 220)

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (70-15 SU, 42-40-3 ATS, 34-51 O/U): The Golden State Warriors are going to make sure Kevin Durant is 100 percent healthy before putting him back on the floor, and the team is making sure he doesn't have to rush by building up a big lead in the first round of the playoffs. Golden State is working through injuries to Durant (calf), Shaun Livingston (finger) and Matt Barnes (foot) and is without head coach Steve Kerr, who sat out Game 3 due to chronic back pain. Kerr, who will not coach on Monday, is consulting with doctors but told reporters he could miss the remainder of the postseason if his back does not improve. While not an ideal situation, the Warriors are used to being without Kerr after he sat out half of the 2015-16 campaign while dealing with complications and pain following back surgery.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (41-44 SU, 41-44 ATS, 46-38-1 O/U): The Trail Blazers looked energized by playing in front of their home fans on Saturday night and built up a 17-point lead before falling off the pace in the third quarter and ending up with a 119-114 loss. Portland was missing center Jusuf Nurkic (leg fracture) in the first two games and received a noticeable boost from the big man when he returned for Game 3, though his effectiveness diminished the longer he stayed on the floor. "Obviously (Nurkic) had a big impact on the game," Stotts told reporters. "We got off to a good start. Obviously, when he was on the floor he made a difference with his passing, his rebounding. He didn’t necessarily look to score but I thought he complemented everybody out there very well." Nurkic reported soreness in the leg after the contest and is not expected to play in Game 4.

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 6.5-point road favorites and that spread has been bumped up slightly to 7. The total hit the board at 219 and was bumped up to 220.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SF M. Barnes (Questionable, ankle), SF K. Looney (Questionable, hip), SF K. Durant (Questionable, calf), PG S. Livingston (Questionable, finger).

Blazers - C J. Nurkic (Out, leg), C F. Ezeli (Out For Season, knee), PF E. Davis (Out For Season, shoulder).

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
* Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 25-9 in Warriors last 34 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Portland.