NBA Betting News and Notes Monday, February 22

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Detroit at Cleveland

Cavaliers off a dominant performance thrashing Thunder 115-92 as +3.0 point road dogs return to Quicken Loans Arena to host mis-firing Pistons in the midst of a five game slide. According to opening odds at Bovada the Cavaliers are -9.5 point home favorites.

Cleveland would seem like easy pickins'. However, 'Buyer-Beware'.

In the previous eight meetings in Cleveland the Cavaliers are a money-burning 2-6 against the betting line. Cavaliers also enter the contest a cash-draining 8-16-1 as home chalk running the hardwood vs a division opponent, 4-11 ATS overall vs a division rival off a loss. Those digging deeper to get a better take will also note, Cavaliers have a vig-losing 4-4 ATS record following a twenty or more point victory the previous effort. Additionally, Cavaliers do not respond against the betting line following a 115 or more point performance. In the past eleven after dropping 115 or more points through the iron Cavaliers are a cash draining 3-7-1 ATS.

Toronto at New York

The Knicks are a mess, having lost eleven of their last thirteen games (4-9 ATS). Hosting Toronto Raptors might be the an opportunity to recoup some lost cash. Raptors have struggle against the betting line recently facing a team with a losing record (1-4 ATS) and have not been a good choice last seven playing without rest (2-5 ATS). The Knicks have respond last four at home taking points vs a division opponent (3-1 ATS) and have shown a habit of grabbing the loot running the hardwood against Purple Dinos (7-1 ATS). Knicks are being handed +4.0 points of offense at Bovada.lv

Monday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (49-5) at ATLANTA HAWKS (31-26)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -7.0

The Hawks will be looking to avoid a three-game losing streak when they host the Warriors on Monday.

The Warriors responded nicely to their loss against the Blazers by beating the Clippers 115-112 as four-point favorites in Los Angeles on Saturday. Golden State was in command the entire game and would have covered if it weren’t for a late run by Los Angeles. The Warriors got a bit lazy towards the end of the game and will just need to regain their focus for this one against the Hawks.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has now lost two straight games and four of its past five after losing 117-109 as an eight-point home favorite against Milwaukee on Saturday. The Hawks have turned the ball over 18.5 times per game over the past two contests and will need to take much better care of the basketball moving forward. These two teams met twice last season and each team won-and-covered when playing at home. Over the past three seasons, though, the Warriors are 3-1 SU in this head-to-head series.

One thing favoring Golden State in this game is the fact that the team is 16-7 ATS off of a road win this season. The Warriors are, however, a miserable 5-19 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.

C Andrew Bogut (Achilles) is questionable for Golden State in this game and PG Jeff Teague (Wrist) is probable for Atlanta.

The Warriors are coming off of a win over the Clippers on Saturday and PG Stephen Curry (29.7 PPG, 6.6 APG, 5.3 RPG, 2.2 SPG) struggled in that one. Curry finished the game just 5-for-15 from the field and 3-for-8 from the outside. He should, however, be able to rebound against the Hawks on Monday. He is too good of a shooter to struggle for too long and he knows that he’ll need to outplay Jeff Teague in this game.

SG Klay Thompson (21.5 PPG) should have no issues getting it going on Monday. Thompson torched the Hawks last year, going for 29 points, five assists, four boards and two steals in his only meeting with the team. He is much more athletic than the guys that will be thrown at him on Monday and that should allow him to get himself open for some open shots.

PF Draymond Green (14.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 7.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.2 BPG) just may be the most important player for the Warriors in this game, though. Green is going to need to bring it defensively, as the Hawks have one of the best frontcourts in basketball. If he does not play well on that end then the Warriors just may be heading towards their second loss in three games. Offensively, the Warriors will just need more of the same from Green. He had a triple-double (18 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) against the Clippers on Saturday and is really in a zone for Golden State.

The Hawks are not playing good basketball right now, but they should be able to get up for this meeting with the Warriors on Monday. One guy that will really need to step his game up in this one is PG Jeff Teague (15.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG). Teague was lousy against the Bucks on Saturday, going 2-for-8 from the field and finishing with just five points in 18 minutes of play. He had 23 points and seven assists in 29 minutes against the Heat the game before and Atlanta will need that Teague to show up on Monday. If he does not hold his own against Stephen Curry then the Hawks have pretty much no chance of winning this one.

PF Paul Millsap (17.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.4 BPG) is another guy that has to play well in his individual matchup. Millsap can’t afford to get shut down by Draymond Green or the Hawks will have too few of options offensively. He is, however, coming off of a 27-point, 11-rebound performance against the Bucks on Saturday and there is no reason to believe that he is going to play poorly in this one.

C Al Horford (15.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.5 BPG) could potentially do a lot of damage in this one. The Warriors are depleted in their frontcourt and Horford’s size could be very disruptive. He will need to be a bit more aggressive near the basket and not fall in love with his midrange shot, even if that is the strongest part of his game.

PHOENIX SUNS (14-42) at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (36-19)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -16.0

The Clippers will be hoping to pick up a victory when they face a Suns team that has lost 11 straight games heading into Monday’s meeting.

The Suns have been one of the worst teams in basketball all season, but the team will be hoping to upset the Clippers on Monday. Phoenix has covered in two of the past three seasons, so the team is improving a bit. The Suns most recently hosted the Spurs on Sunday and lost 118-111, but the game was close all the way through. They’ll just need to be a bit better defensively against Los Angeles, as they allowed San Antonio to shoot 52.4% from the field on Sunday.

The Clippers, meanwhile, have now lost two of their past three games. They hosted the Warriors on Saturday night and lost 115-112 as four-point home underdogs. Los Angeles has now allowed two of its past three opponents to shoot 49% or better from the field and will need to be better defensively moving forward.

The Suns defeated the Clippers 118-104 the last time these teams played, but that game was in Phoenix and the team was a lot healthier back then. The Clippers are still 8-2 SU in this series over the past three seasons and the teams have split victories ATS in that span.

Los Angeles is, however, a lousy 7-17 ATS in home games after covering in two of their past three over the past two seasons. Fortunately for the Clippers, the Suns are 0-7 ATS in road games after having lost 12 or more of their past 15 games this season.

C Tyson Chandler (Shoulder) is questionable for Phoenix, which is already without SF T.J. Warren (Foot/Ankle), PG Brandon Knight (Groin) and PG Eric Bledsoe (Knee) for the rest of the season. The Clippers, meanwhile, remain without PF Blake Griffin (Hand) and PG Austin Rivers (Hand) indefinitely.

The Suns have not been winning games recently, but they are a bit more competitive as of late. One guy that will need to play better if they are going to get back into the win column is SG Devin Booker (10.6 PPG). Booker is averaging just 10.0 PPG on 6-for-20 shooting from the field in the past two contests. Phoenix is counting on him to be the top option offensively and he needs to start making some shots moving forward. He should be able to find some success against the Clippers, as they are weakest defensively at the shooting guard position.

One guy that has stepped it up offensively is PF Mirza Teletovic (10.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG). Teletovic is going to need to play well in this game, as the Suns can really struggle to score at times. Over the past five games, the Phoenix big man is averaging 17.0 PPG on 47.4% shooting from the field and 42.9% shooting from the outside. Teletovic must be aggressive in this game and find a way to put pressure on the Clippers.

C Alex Len (7.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG) can also give the Suns a lift in this one. He had 23 points and 13 rebounds against the Spurs on Sunday and will need to hold his own against DeAndre Jordan in this one. If he is killed on the glass and can’t find a way to be effective then the Suns will likely get blown out.

The Clippers are coming off of a loss to the Warriors and will now be hungry to get a win against an inferior Suns team on Monday. One guy that should be able to completely take over this game is PG Chris Paul (19.6 PPG, 9.4 APG, 2.1 SPG). Paul will be going up against a Suns team that is extremely weak at the point guard position and he has been on a tear recently. Over the past five games, Paul is averaging 24.0 PPG and 10.8 APG on 50.6% shooting from the field and 41.9% shooting from the outside. If he can get it going on Monday then it’s unlikely that the Suns will be able to keep this game close.

Los Angeles can also use a good game from C DeAndre Jordan (12.2 PPG, 14.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG) in this one. Jordan is coming off of a 16-point, 21-rebound and two-block performance against Golden State on Saturday. He will need to grab all of the rebounds he can and also protect the rim in this one.

It’d also be nice for the Clippers if SF Jeff Green (12.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG) can get it going against the Suns. Green had just five points on 2-for-7 shooting from the field in his Clippers debut, but he will be more comfortable the more he plays with this team. Los Angeles can really use some consistency at forward and it’d be huge if he can provide it.

Monday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Pistons at Cavaliers (-10, 207)

The Cavs put together Sunday’s most brilliant outing, squashing the Thunder 115-92 in Oklahoma City. They won in spite of missing top perimeter defender Iman Shumpert (shoulder) and losing Kyrie Irving to effects from a nasty flu bug after just nine minutes of action. LeBron James finished with 25 points and 11 assists, while Kevin Love relished in increased opportunities with Irving gone and finished with 29 points and 11 rebounds. Despite Love missing all four of his shots from beyond the arc, Cleveland shot 10-for-23 on 3-pointers and doled out 25 assists in moving the ball beautifully.
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Detroit is also playing on the second night of a back-to-back, surrendering Anthony Davis’ 59-point, 20-rebound masterpiece in Sunday afternoon’s 111-106 home loss to New Orleans. The Pistons have lost five consecutive games dating back to their last win on Feb. 4, failing against the spread each time out. Stan Van Gundy took full blame for his team’s inability to stop Davis, saying he should’ve altered coverages more and figured something out. Van Gundy has had a tough time this month, forced to toil without starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who sat with a groin injury but has returned following the All-Star break and is just 5-for-26 from the field through two losses, shooting 2-for-13 from 3-point range. Tobias Harris has hit the ground running since arriving from Orlando, averaging 18.5 points off the Pistons bench. He’s already taken 29 shots, wasting no time embracing his role as the second unit’s catalyst. This begins a stretch of eight of 11 on the road for the Pistons.

Meanwhile, Cleveland trade deadline acquisition Channing Frye has yet to suit up. His status, along with the availability of Irving and Shumpert, won’t be determined until later in the day. Forward Anthony Tolliver didn't make the trip to Cleveland, leaving the Pistons further short-handed since their deal with Houston for F/C Donatas Motiejunas and SG Marcus Thornton has been held up due to concerns over Motiejunas' long-term health. These teams have split the first two meetings, both of which were played in Auburn Hills. Each game surpassed the posted total. The over hit in Detroit's loss yesterday, snapping a run of three straight unders. The under has prevailed in four of the last six Cavs games, including yesterday's win.

Pacers at Heat (-1, 199)

Indiana has won consecutive games on the road coming out of the break, thriving down the stretch to win games at Oklahoma City and Orlando that came down to final few possessions. On Sunday against the Magic, the Pacers forced a Victor Oladipo miss in a one-point game with three seconds left, hanging on for a 105-102 win. The Pacers overcame a seven-point deficit in the final 3:00 against the Thunder on Friday, knocking down four 3-pointers, the last of which Monta Ellis delivered with 18.8 seconds remaining. Ellis finished with a team-high 27 points at OKC, his second-highest output in this first season in Indiana. In Orlando he added a game-high 21 and again made a huge shot from beyond the arc down the stretch. The 14.3 points he’s averaging is his lowest since his rookie season, so If Ellis can continue this surge, Indy may really take a step forward.

The Heat are on a post-All-Star winning streak as well, pulling out high-scoring wins over Southeast Division rivals Atlanta (115-111) and Washington (114-94) despite playing without injured starters Dwyane Wade (knee) and Chris Bosh (calf). Transitioning from the halfcourt style head coach Erik Spoelstra is most comfortable with to a faster pace that better suits his personnel’s strengths has gotten the most out of point guard Goran Dragic and forward Luol Deng, who have combined for an eye-popping 98 points, 33 rebounds and 22 assists. Center Hassan Whiteside returned from suspension to dominate with 25 points and 23 rebounds off the bench against the Wizards, while PF Josh McRoberts had 19 points, six boards and 10 assists in beating the Hawks, giving Miami another option it can play through.

An MRI on Wade's injured knee came back negative over the weekend, but he'll be listed as questionable despite being a full participant in shootaround on Monday morning. Bosh remains out indefinitely with his blood clot issue a concern. Indiana’s Rodney Stuckey has been out with a right foot injury and isn't expected to return here. C.J. Miles returned against Orlando after sitting in OKC due to a stomach virus and his 6-of-8 shots, scoring 14 points in 13 minutes before leaving with a calf injury that has him listed as doubtful. PG George Hill is questionable with a right elbow sprain. These teams are meeting for the third and final time this regular season and have each won three-point decisions on their home floor.

Raptors (-4, 199.5) at Knicks

The Raptors pulled out a 98-85 win over Memphis to avoid a three-game losing streak as Toronto celebrated its first home game of the month by pulling away in the second half. They’ll be at the Air Canada Centre for 10 of the next 12 after this one, giving them a great opportunity to make a run at Cleveland, which visits Feb. 26. The Raps won despite shooting just 33-for-81 from the field, but held the Grizzlies to 36.8 percent shooting (3-for-20 on 3s). Toronto’s bench made a huge impact, combining for 39 points and 21 rebounds. DeMar DeRozan led the way with a game-high 21 points and is averaging a team-high 22.6 in February. They’ve split the season series with the Knicks so far despite both games being at the Air Canada Centre.

New York snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 103-95 Saturday night win at Minnesota. They enter this contest on a 2-11 run, but have seen Carmelo Anthony begin to snap out of a slump that followed him into this month due to his chronic knee issues. Melo scored 33 points, his highest output of 2016, in a Feb. 9 loss to the Wizards right before the break, and comes off a 30-point, 11-rebound effort against the Timberwolves. He’s shot 52.4 percent and averaged 28.7 points and 10.3 rebounds over the last three games, but there obviously haven’t been any back-to-backs involved. We’ll see how his legs hold up. Kristaps Porzingis played just 12 minutes in Minneapolis due to foul trouble as his trend of playing poorly on the road continued. No one will be happier to see the Madison Square Garden floor, as Porzingis is averaging 15.1 points and shooting over 45 percent at home compared to 12.5 points and a 39 percent clip in opposing gyms. The Rookie of the Year candidate had a rough time in his only game against Toronto, shooting 3-for-11 and scoring just 8 on Nov. 10. He missed New York’s 103-93 loss on Jan. 28 with an upper respiratory illness, the only time he’s been absent this season. Anthony and Jose Calderon also missed the game.

Toronto SF DeMarre Carroll (knee), is drawing closer to a return but likely won’t play for at least another week. New York lists no injuries. The Raptors are 8-1 against Atlantic Division opposition and 30-11 dating back to 2013. They’ve won 24 straight games when holding teams under 100 points.

Warriors at Hawks (-7, 224)

Golden State bounced back from a 32-point loss in Portland by beating the Clippers 115-112 on Saturday night to improve to an NBA-best 49-5, still one game ahead of the pace maintained by the ’95-’96 Bulls, who finished with a league-record 72 victories. The Warriors dominated L.A. at Staples, but surrendered a remarkable 13-0 run in the final 1:50 of garbage time to fumble away the cover as a 4-point favorite. Despite the near-collapse, the Warriors controlled a game where Stephen Curry shot just 5-for-15, tying for his second-lowest percentage of the season. Klay Thompson picked up his Splash brother with a game-high 32 points while Draymond Green recorded his league-best 11th triple-double (18-11-10). The Warriors will now begin their East Coast portion of this seven-game road swing they’re embarked upon, following up this visit to Atlanta with mid-week games at Miami and Orlando before closing the stretch at Oklahoma City on Saturday night. GSW will next be back home to face these same Hawks on March 1. This will mark the first meeting of the season between these two, which will leave only the Magic as a team the Warriors haven’t seen yet.

The Hawks have dropped consecutive games against Miami and Milwaukee to begin this five-game homestand despite being substantial favorites in both. They’ve surrendered an average of 116 points in the defeats, although the Bucks game did go OT and would’ve gone under the posted total had it ended in regulation. Offensively, Atlanta has topped the century mark in seven of eight games in February but are just 4-4 on the month and have fallen behind the Heat in the Southeast Division standings. Point guard Jeff Teague has been nursing a wrist injury that limited him to just 17 minutes in the loss to the Bucks. He shot 2-for-8 from the field and felt pain, ultimately being replaced by Dennis Schroder, who scored 25 points and dished out 10 assists in 40 minutes. Teague is expected to play on Monday night, but how effective he can be remains to be seen.

Center is Golden State's primary area of concern injury-wise, though that's unlikely to be a factor against a Hawks squad that lost 7-footer Tiago Splitter (hip) for the season and typically goes small. Andrew Bogut is nursing an Achilles injury and missed the Clips win, while Festus Ezeli remains out indefinitely with a knee injury. These teams split last year's meetings as the Hawks held serve in Atlanta 124-116. Golden State won the most recent meeting 114-95 on March 18 and has won six of the last seven in the series. All-time, the Hawks hold a razor-thin 142-141 edge.

Suns at Clippers (-15.5, 212)

The Clippers are in the midst of a stretch where they’ll play seven of eight at Staples Center between now and March 5, never even leaving California since the lone road game will be played Friday night in Sacramento. After opening the homestand in style with a rout of Kawhi Leonard-less San Antonio, L.A. fell 115-112 to Golden State in a result that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated, much to the chagrin of anyone saddled with that Warriors’ bad beat. PG Chris Paul was pulled by Doc Rivers due to a thigh bruise that may linger, though the All-Star point guard insisted over the weekend that he’d be fine and wouldn’t miss any time. It remains to be seen whether Rivers employs him as normal are opts to give him the night off or restrict minutes. Center DeAndre Jordan scored 16 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in the loss to the Warriors and has yet to be tested via Hack-a-Shaq since the break, attempting just six free throws over the two games. It’s the least his weakness has been tested since md-December, so making part of this one may be part of Earl Watson’s game plan.

The Suns’ interim head coach still doesn’t have a victory since taking over for the fired Jeff Hornacek on Feb. 1, but yesterday’s 118-111 home loss to San Antonio did improve his mark to 4-3 ATS, which suggests he’s at least getting his young team to play hard. Since Phoenix has been at home throughout his entire seven-game stint, this will be his first road game at the helm. Rookie teenager Devin Booker has averaged a team-best 14.7 points this month, but is mired in a 12-for-39 (30.7 pct) shooting slump and is just 4-for-16 (25 pct) from 3-point range. Center Alex Len scored a season 23 points and added 13 rebounds in Sunday’s loss to the Spurs, benefiting from extra time since Tyson Chandler sat with a shoulder injury that has him questionable for this one. Phoenix topped the Clips 118-104 last time these teams got together way back on Nov. 12, snapping an eight-game losing streak in the series. Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe, both currently injured, combined for 63 points on 23-for-35 shooting. Tonight’s guard rotation, Booker, Archie Goodwin and Ronnie Price, went scoreless in that game, playing a combined 12 minutes.

Total Notes

Chris David provides his quick ‘over/under’ notes for Monday’s slate.

The ‘over’ express continued Sunday with a 7-3 record to the high side and most of those results were never in doubt, plus a couple of the ‘under’ winners barely connected. Bettors have now seen the ‘over’ go 19-9 (68%) the last three days and while I never recommend the due factor, I expect a few low-scoring affairs on Monday.

Seven of the 14 teams in action tonight are facing back-to-back spots and a handful of teams are playing three games in four nights.

Detroit has watched the ‘over’ cash in six of its last seven games on zero days rest as it visits Cleveland tonight. However, the Cavaliers have been a great ‘under’ bet (7-3) in back-to-back situations this season. Even though Cleveland could be without Kyrie Irving (flu) tonight, I’d probably lean to the high side just based on the offensive production (108 PPG) under Lue as head coach.

The Pacers complete the Sunshine State swing in Miami after beating Orlando 105-102 on Sunday. Indiana has seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in its last three road games on no rest and the Heat continue to be the best ‘under’ (35-20) team in the NBA.

Toronto heads to New York tonight and it’s shown the ability to play fast on zero days rest. The Raptors have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in B2B spots this season and they enjoy playing against the Knicks, averaging 107 PPG in the last five encounters.

If you’re looking for an expected shootout Monday, then turn your attention to the Atlanta-Golden State matchup. The total opened 223 ½ and it certainly seems doable since you know what you’re getting from the Warriors. Plus, the Hawks just gave up 115 and 117 in recent loss to the Heat and Bucks respectively. Last season, Atlanta earned a 124-116 home win over Golden State and the ‘over’ (213) easily cashed.

Another contest that caught some early attention was the Lakers-Bucks matchup. The game opened 205 and has been bumped up to 208 as of Monday morning. Los Angeles has been a solid ‘over’ bet (8-4) on zero days rest this season, largely because it doesn’t guard anybody. In all of the games on no rest, all 12 opponents have busted the century mark against them and somebody Is expecting Milwaukee to follow suit tonight.