NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, January 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Nets lost their last five games but covered five of last seven; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as a road underdog. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Heat won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they covered last three games as a home favorite. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Miami won nine of its last ten games with Brooklyn (8-2 vs spread); Nets lost four of last five visits to South Beach (2-3 vs spread). Four of last six series games went over total.
Magic lost six of last eight games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Minnesota won four of last five games, is 3-5 in last eight games as a home favorite- their last three games went over the total. Orlando won five of last six games with Minnesota, winning by 13-3 points in last two visits to Twin Cities. Under is 3-1 in last four series games played here.
Detroit lost four of its last five road games; they’re 5-12 as road underdogs- their last four games went over total. Celtics won/covered last three games; they’re 7-3 in last ten games as a home favorite. Five of their last six games went over the total. Road team won six of last eight Boston-Detroit games; Pistons won three of last four visits to Beantown. Four of last five series games stayed under.
Cleveland won its last two games but lost four of last five on road; they’re 6-10 as road favorites, 1-4 vs spread if they played day before. Dallas won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as a home underdog. Cavaliers won last four games with Dallas, but Mavericks covered seven of last nine series games; Cleveland won last two visits here, by 3-33 points. Three of last four series games went over total.
Grizzlies are 0-4 vs spread in game following their last four wins; they’re 4-2 as road favorites. Over is 4-2-2 in their last eight games. Phoenix lost its last three games; they covered last three games as a home underdog. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Memphis won eight of last ten games with Phoenix, but Suns covered four of last five in series. Grizzlies won five of last six visits to desert (under 4-2).
Kings won three of their last four games, covered four of last five, all on road- all four games went over the total. 76ers won six of last seven home games (7-0 vs spread); their last five games went over the total. Sacramento won three of last four games with Philly; Kings won two of last three visits here. Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Sixers are 4-6 vs spread if they played the night before.
Armadillosports.com
Pistons, Celtics battle in Boston
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Can anyone stop Isaiah Thomas? It sure doesn’t seem like it.
Just last week, certain Celtics blogs were openly debating whether it was time to push the panic button on this year’s team. It was Wednesday morning and Boston had lost three straight games, and they seemed doomed to drop yet another that night against Houston on the back end of a back-to-back. But the Celtics took down the Rockets 120-109 (BOS +4), and has now won three straight after wins over Orlando and Milwaukee. After a Toronto loss on Sunday, Boston is second in the Eastern Conference standings at 29-18 (26-19-2 ATS). Before a showdown with Toronto on Wednesday, the Celtics will host the 21-26 Pistons (20-27 ATS) on Monday night. The Pistons are a game and a half out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and they looked sharp in beating likely playoff teams Atlanta and Washington last week. In their last two, however, they lost 109-104 to the lowly Kings (SAC +7) and 116-103 to the lowlier (but currently on fire) Heat (MIA +3). Over the last five seasons, road underdogs scoring at least 99 PPG on the year (DET) are 17-55 ATS against teams that have led each of their last two games by at least 10 points at halftime. On the other hand, road underdogs that have allowed at least 105 points in three straight games are 34-4 ATS in the same timeframe against opponents coming off a loss of six points or fewer. Celtics SG Avery Bradley has missed 10 of the last 11 games and will remain out Monday night, while C Al Horford could miss the game, as well.
The Pistons are strong defensively, ranking 11th in the NBA with a defensive efficiency rating of 107.3 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their problems tend to come on the offensive end of the court, where they’re 21st in the league with an efficiency rating of 106.2 points scored per 100 possessions. They play the sixth-slowest pace in the league at 94.3 possessions per 48 minutes. Detroit has five players scoring between 13.5 and 17.5 points per game, and the leading scorer among them is PG Reggie Jackson (17.2 PPG, 5.5 APG). Jackson was recently rumored to be on the trade block, but his performance hasn’t suffered any: After averaging 14.5 PPG in December, he’s putting up 20.3 in January. The centerpiece of this roster is C Andre Drummond (14.3 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG), who is third in the league in rebounding and first among centers in steals. He had his 25th career 20-rebound game against the Heat. SF Tobias Harris (16.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) had 16 in that game, and he has scored at least 15 points in nine of the Pistons’ 11 games this month. He has been coming off the bench recently and seems to have benefited from it. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (14.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) was hot before having to miss five games this month with a shoulder injury, and he’s just now getting back in the swing of things. He has shot 6-of-25 from the floor in the two games since his return. PF Marcus Morris (13.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG) is second on the team in three-point attempts (4.7) and had 25 points and 11 rebounds—and a game-winning tip-in—in the team’s most recent win (WAS).
Contrary to the reputation of Celtics teams from the last couple of years, this year’s Boston squad is great on offense (111.9 OEFF, 5th in NBA) and not so great on defense (109.4 DEFF, 22nd in NBA). They average 96 possessions per 48 minutes, just below the league average of 96.4. The man leading that offense is PG Isaiah Thomas (29.1 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is fifth in the NBA in usage rate (33.8 ) and second in scoring to only Russell Westbrook. He is one of only two players among the league’s top six scorers that attempt less than 20 shots per game (19.8 ). He is averaging 32.3 points per game in January and has scored at least 35 points in seven of 13 games this month. Horford (15.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.7 BPG) appears to still be finding his groove on his new team, but he has already established himself as a critical cog in all facets of the team’s game. He is a great passer in the post and a well-rounded defender, although his shortcomings on the boards help contribute to Boston’s third-worst team RPG number of 41.3. SF Jae Crowder (14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG) and PG Marcus Smart (9.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) take on extra importance in the absence of Bradley (17.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG), as his injury takes away both perimeter scoring and defense, as well as rebounding. PF Kelly Olynyk (8.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG) has been hot lately, having scored 16 and 17 points against Orlando and Milwaukee, respectively. PF Amir Johnson (6.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG) holds down the four spot in the starting lineup and specializes in doing the dirty work.
Monday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night - Memphis at Phoenix
This is the second half of Monday's nationally-televised doubleheader, so the hope here is that it will provide a fun matchup to salvage what could potentially be a dud of a night. Of the six games on the schedule, there's only one matchup between teams that have both surpassed 20 wins, the opening game of TNT's twinbill, previewed below.
Of the 10 teams with the NBA's lowest winning percentages, eight will be in action on Monday. Only the Lakers and Pelicans are skipping the party.
The Grizzlies are the top Western Conference team playing Monday and come off an impressive 102-95 road win at Utah on the second night of a back-to-back. This will be the third leg of a six-game road trip, all against conference opponents, that continues against Denver, Oklahoma City and Minnesota. After spending most of the season with at least one regular out of the lineup -- more often three or more -- the Grizzlies will have everyone available.
Big forward/center Brandan Wright will make his season debut following ankle surgery. He's played just 12 games with Memphis, but is a strong rebounder and capable rim protector who should have an impact if he can stay healthy. Shooter Troy Daniels is back after undergoing knee pain and Chandler Parsons should play after resting on the second night of a back-to-back. With Zach Randolph coming off a season-high 28-point outburst over the Jazz and Vince Carter still effective despite now being on the other side of 40, a Grizzlies team that was once playing without All-Star Marc Gasol, point guard Mike Conley, Randolph, Parsons, Carter and Wright has a chance to be among the league's deepest heading into the break.
Since first-year head coach David Fizdale is just getting to know all these players, Parsons is still struggling to find his shot and Wright is just returning, there will definitely be more shuffling ahead. The next four games of this road trip give the Grizzlies opportunities to improve on the West's fourth-best conference mark, currently an impressive 19-10, but could also produce some spotty play since it's tough for new pieces to mesh on the road. Since the three renaining stops all feature teams playing better than the Suns, who have dropped three straight and bring up the rear in the entire West, it's important for Memphis to take care of business.
Randolph's 28-point game off the Griz bench is just the latest and best in a fantastic month where he's proven he can still be a force, averaging 15.9 points and 9.8 rebounds. Over the last three games, he's shooting nearly 66 percent and averaging 20 and 10. Gasol is averaging 30.4 points over his last five, so Phoenix has to hope Tyson Chandler can stay out of foul trouble or they'll have serious issues on defense.
The Suns have surrendered an average of 120.7 points during their current skid, which features a home loss to Minnesota and home-and-home sweep at the hands of Denver. They've lost five of seven and have allowed 103 or more points in each of their last 10.
Phoenix has lost five of its last six home games, with the lone win coming in an upset of San Antonio. This will be the first of three meetings over the next month between these teams, who split last year's four encounters, only one of which included Gasol.
Game of the Night II - Detroit at Boston
Since Dec. 15, Detroit has gone 7-13 over a 20-game span, falling to the bottom of the Central Division. Stan Van Gundy has tried everything to try and push the right buttons, but after matching a season-high three-game winning streak, the Pistons lost at home to Sacramento and then got stomped in Miami despite four days off in between.
If nothing else, they'll have the fresher legs in this matchup, catching the Celtics on their fifth game in seven nights. They've won their last three despite missing two starters in F/C Al Horford (groin) and Avery Bradley (Achilles), most recently winning in Milwaukee after double-digit home wins over Houston and Orlando. Both players may return as early as tonight, so be sure to monitor news after shootaround. They're considered day-to-day and will likely be game-time decisions when they do return.
Marcus Smart has done tremendous defensive work filling in for Bradley, but he's shooting just 35 percent and definitely could benefit from a reduced workload. Kelly Olynyk picked up the offensive slack for Horford with 17 points in the win over the Bucks, but is also best in smaller doses. Getting Horford and Bradley back for the rest of Boston's homestand, which continues with an Atlantic Division showdown against Toronto on Wednesday and games against both LA teams this weekend, will give them an opportunity to hang on to a division lead they captured when the Raptors lost at home to Orlando on Sunday.
Isaiah Thomas has been the driving force, averaging 31.6 points over his last 22 games and is set to close out a second consecutive month averaging over 30 points. He's averaged 25.5 points in splitting the two contests the Celtics have played against Detroit, but will get a vastly different look here. Reggie Jackson, who excelled at Boston College, will be playing his first game in this series since he was injured to start the season, so he'll certainly bring it in his old college stomping grounds. The Celtics are favored for the fifth time in six games in this series, but Detroit has won two outright. Four of their last five meetings have gone under the posted total.
Matchup to Watch
Moisture postponed the Nov. 30 matchup between these teams, which could potentially work out as a bonus if Joel Embiid is able to play. Knee soreness has kept him out of most of Philadelphia's games of late, and he's been diagnosed with a bone bruise that may ultimately keep him out of this one.
If he's able to play, the fact he's further along now that he was late in the first full month of his rookie season means we could get a worthy sequel to their first meeting, when Embiid scored 25 points and grabbed eight rebounds but got his shot blocked as he pulled up on DeMarcus Cousins for a game-winner. Cousins, who won the game 102-100 with a 3-pointer with 20.9 seconds left in addition to the game-saving block, has led Sacramento to wins in three of four, pulling off upsets of Detroit, Cleveland and Charlotte.
The Kings have covered five consecutive games, all on the road. The 76ers have covered all seven of their home games in 2017, winning six outright before having that streak snapped in Friday's 123-118 loss to the Rockets, who were favored by 7.
Philadelphia lost 121-108 in Chicago on Sunday night, but has still won nine of 14, its most impressive run since 2011.
Notable Head-to-Head Trends
The Nets have lost eight of nine against the Heat and just blew a fourth-quarter lead last week in a 109-106 home loss. This matchup pits the team with the NBA's longest winning streak (Miami, 7) against the team with the longest run of losses. Brooklyn has dropped five straight and comes in 9-38, six games up on Phoenix for the league's worst record. Dion Waiters dished out a season-high eight assists against the Nets on Wednesday and hit the dagger 3-pointer to complete the comeback, finishing with 24 points. He's shockingly averaged 25.2 over his last five, shooting over 51 percent from the field and 3-point range.
The Magic and Wolves have nearly identical records, something that depresses both fan bases as they near the 50-game mark. Minnesota won the first meeting between these teams on Nov. 9, winning in Orlando 123-107 behind Zach LaVine's 37 points and Andrew Wiggins' 29. LaVine shot 7-for-9 from 3-point range, helping snap a five-game losing streak at the hands of the Magic. Minnesota has won just three times in 16 games in this series since '08-'09.
Dallas won five straight games over Cleveland without LeBron James in the lineup, but have lost the last four with him in the mix, including a 129-90 rout on Nov. 25. The Cavs shot 20-for-43 from 3-point range in that win, led by Kevin Love going 7-for-9 and finishing with 27 points and 10 rebounds in 28 minutes. Due to back spasms that knocked him out of Sunday's win over Oklahoma City, Love will be absent against the Mavs. James and Kyrie Irving made the trip to Dallas despite this game being on the second night of a back-to-back, so they're likely to play although a late audible is always a possibility.
Dallas is certain to be without Deron Williams (leg) and J.J. Barea (calf), in addition to probably missing Andrew Bogut, who hurt his hamstring in a stunning Dirk Nowitzki and Seth Curry-led upset of San Antonio last night. The Cavs are 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Mavs are winless in nine games on the second night, covering just twice.
Monday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Minnesota (-9.5); total set at 210.5
It's a tough spot for the Orlando Magic tonight as they head to Minnesota to take on the T-Wolves. This will be the third different city in four days the Magic find themselves in, coming off an impressive 114-113 win in Toronto yesterday as double-digit underdogs. Orlando is near that range again tonight as Minnesota has been on a roll of late (4-1 SU last five) and already crushed the Magic in Orlando earlier this year with a 123-107 final score.
Orlando responded well to a 30-point loss in Boston on Friday by shooting over 50% from the field against the Raptors yesterday. The Magic have been a team that's had offensive issues all year long (26th in the NBA), but they aren't strangers to blowing up like they did in Toronto and getting hot for extended period of time. Orlando's main scoring issues tend to happen from quarter to quarter within a game when everything they put up can't find the hoop and that type of inconsistency makes them a tough team to really get a handle on.
However, Minnesota isn't exactly one of the best defenses in the league (13th with 104.7 allowed/game), so as long as the fatigue from all the travel and playing three games in four nights doesn't catch up with Orlando too much, they should be able to find a way to stay within this number. Minnesota may be playing well at the moment, but they are still a young team learning how to win and laying this kind of hefty chalk (although it worked out well in their 129-109 win over Brooklyn last time out) is a little to steep for this T-Wolves squad.
That being said, the better betting opportunity on this game should be on this total as we are unlikely to see the 230 points we had in the first meeting. Even 210 will be a stretch as fatigue is definitely a concern on the Orlando side, and Minnesota would love to tighten things up in their own end after allowing 108 or more in five of their last six games.
Minnesota is on a 2-6 O/U run at home, a 0-5 O/U run after winning by double digits, and 1-5 O/U at home against a team with a losing record on the road. They know all about Orlando's propensity to put up sub-20 point quarters within a game and getting at least one of those tonight will dramatically increase Minnesota's chances of winning this game comfortably.
They already beat the Magic in an up-and-down track meet, and they should be able to dictate the tempo a bit more at home to slow things down. Minnesota does prefer to play fast, but using that strategy in spurts and flurries rather than the entirety of the game is how most teams dismantle the Magic in a hurry.
On the flip side, Orlando has preferred to play a bit faster on the road with a 6-0 O/U run going away from home, but much of that is due to their defense being overmatched against top tier squads. Minnesota is still 11 games under the .500 mark at this point and doesn't have nearly the offensive efficiency that many of the Magic's recent opponents do. Also, Orlando games against other losing teams don't exactly light up the scoreboard as they are 2-5 O/U in their last seven vs losing teams and with a high probability of the Magic's shots clanking iron with fatigued legs come the 2nd half, siding with the line move towards the 'under' is the better play.