NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, June 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Game 5 - Cavaliers at Warriors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
They finished just short of history.
One season after breaking the NBA record for most wins in a season with 73, the Warriors were on the verge of becoming the first team to finish the postseason undefeated following a 15-0 start. Golden State returns home on Monday, but not for a parade across the Bay Area. The Warriors have three shots to capture their second championship in three seasons, as Steve Kerr’s squad is back at Oracle Arena for Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers.
Cleveland blitzed Golden State on Friday with a first quarter barrage for the ages by posting an NBA Finals-record 49 points in the first 12 minutes. The Cavaliers didn’t let up from there as they kept their season alive with a 137-116 blowout of the Warriors to easily cash as five-point home underdogs.
Kyrie Irving lit up the Warriors in consecutive games at Quicken Loans Arena as the Cavaliers’ guard followed up a 38-point effort in Game 3 by dropping 40 points on Golden State in Game 4. Irving failed to knock down a shot from long range in seven attempts in Game 3, but connected on seven treys in Game 4, while Cleveland torched Golden State for 24 three-pointers.
LeBron James did his usual thing for Cleveland by scoring 31 points, pulling down 11 rebounds, and dishing out 10 assists, while jawing with Golden State counterpart Kevin Durant in a hotly-contested matchup. Durant held up his end of the bargain in Game 4 by posting 35 points, although he shot 9-of-22 from the floor. Through four games in the Finals, Durant is averaging 34.2 points per game, while putting up at least 29 points in eight of his previous 10 postseason contests.
No other Warrior besides Durant scored more than 16 points, as KD’s running mate, Stephen Curry registered only 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting. Curry’s lowest output in last year’s Finals was 11 points in the series opener, as the two-time MVP was held without field goal in the opening quarter in Game 4. Golden State shot poorly from downtown by converting 11-of-39 three-point attempts, including a combined 4-of-18 from Curry and Durant.
Cleveland improved to 4-0 in its last four games facing elimination dating back to last year’s epic Finals comeback against Golden State. The catalyst to the 2016 comeback was the Game 5 suspension of Golden State’s do-it-all man Draymond Green, following his punch to James’ nether region. Green was on his way to getting tossed from Game 4, but confusion on an earlier technical kept the former Michigan State star in the game as the Warriors will have his services for Game 5.
In the last two NBA Finals, the eventual champion won the title on the road, as Golden State can buck that trend by winning on Monday in Oakland. The Warriors own a 4-4 ATS record at Oracle Arena in the playoffs, with two of those covers coming in the first two games against the Cavaliers.
Bettors playing the ‘over’ (227½) in Game 4 were lighting up cigars and drinking champagne at the end of the first quarter on Friday as both clubs couldn’t miss. It was never in doubt and it’s been a common theme in the playoffs. Including that result, the ‘over’ is now 3-1 in this NBA Finals and the high side has produced an eye-opening 47-30-1 (61%) in this year’s postseason and that includes a 24-10 (71%) record after the first round.
Oddsmakers sent out a total of 231 for Monday’s matchup and a few betting shops have already nudged the total up to 232.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David offered up his thoughts on Friday’s action and what to look for in Game 5.
“A lot of old school pundits aren’t enjoying the new-look NBA and often point to the lack of defense and physical play. The point is well taken but the rules have changed and so has the talent on the floor. The amount of elite shooters in today’s game is far superior to the past and that was evident on Friday when Cleveland shot 53 percent (24-of-45) from distance and broke a handful of NBA records by doing so. Before the series started, I predicted Golden State to sweep but I also noted that the Cavaliers could sweep if they continued to light it up from the outside,” said David.
“The Cavaliers are sloppy defensively and allowing 36 trips to the free throw line would’ve sent you home on any other night if it wasn’t for your hot shooting. Other surprising numbers that stood out from Friday were the lack of field goal attempts taken by both Curry (13) and Klay Thompson (11), which were well below their averages. Knowing that Cleveland’s defense is limited and allowing 119.8 PPG in this series, leaning to Golden State’s team total (120) in Game 5 appears to a solid lean.”
Including Friday’s result, Golden State has watched the ‘over’ go 12-4 (75%) in the playoffs while Cleveland is 12-5 (71%) to the high side.
The first quarter has gone ‘over’ in every game of this series despite seeing numbers get as high as 61 for the opening 12 minutes. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the first-half but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in the second-half.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Tony Mejia believes whoever wins Game 5 will heat up from distance, "After hitting an NBA record 24 3-pointers, the Cavs look to stay alive in Oakland and must continue to stay hot from beyond the arc. Between J.R. Smith finally finding the range and Kyle Korver doing his thing off the bench, Cleveland has to find a way to remain potent from the perimeter. They were 19-for-60 from 3-point range in the first two games at Oracle Arena and can't afford a poor shooting game if they're going to extend the series. Count on them needing 20 3-pointers to have a chance to steal Game 5 and extend the NBA Finals once again."
Prior to the series at Sportsbook.ag, the Warriors were listed at 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) to beat the Cavaliers in five games. That line has moved to -330 (Bet $330 to win $100) at Sportsbook.ag, while Golden State is listed at 5/1 odds to grab the title in six games. In case you believe in divine intervention, the Cavaliers are 10/1 to win their second straight championship and become the first NBA team ever to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0.
NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Preview: Cavaliers at Warriors
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 230.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers avoided the sweep and aim to remain alive again on Monday when they visit the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers rolled to an impressive 137-116 victory in Game 4 when they drained a Finals' record 24 3-pointers and badly outplayed Golden State.
Cleveland exposed the Warriors' defense with Finals' records for first-quarter points (49) and halftime points (86) and received a sensational offensive performance from point guard Kyrie Irving. "The magnitude of the games, especially the last game, it hit me in a very deep place," Irving said after his 40-point performance. "Just you want to play extremely well and you understand that's a do-or-die game." Golden State blew a 3-1 series lead while losing to the Cavaliers in last season's Finals but continue to say it is a different team - one that won its first 15 postseason games prior to being spanked on Friday. "I don't think there was any concern or thoughts about history," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I think it was we played a desperate team on their home floor, a great team, with great players, and they came out and handed it to us. Simple as that."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 8.5-point home favorites for Game 5 and the total hit the board at a massive 230.5. Neither number has moved thus far. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand).
Warriors - C Z. Pachulia (Questionable, possible suspension), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (64-35 SU, 45-50-4 ATS, 59-39-1 O/U): Irving is averaging 39 points over the past two games and 30.3 for the series as he continues to raise his growing reputation as a big-time player. "He's just been built for that moment," Cleveland star forward LeBron James told reporters. "I said that over and over again - that he's always been built for the biggest moments, and he showed that once again. It's not surprising. He's just that special." James isn't doing so bad himself with averages of 31.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 10.5 assists and he posted his ninth career playoff triple-double in Game 4 to break a tie with legendary Magic Johnson for most all-time.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-16 SU, 51-44-3 ATS, 44-54 O.U): Forward Draymond Green's absence in Game 5 of last season's Finals due to his accumulation of technical fouls helped fuel Cleveland's comeback but Green says the situation is different this season as the reminders increase. "I'm sure that's just the world we live in," Green told reporters. "But we were up 3-0 (this year). We weren't up 3-0 last year. So, it's a little different. And at the end of the day, the series is a little different. Thank God I get to play in Game 5." Green's offense has been much quieter than his vocal cords as he is averaging 11.3 points on just 35.6 percent shooting to go along with 9.8 rebounds per game.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.
* Warriors are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.
CONSENSUS: 60 percent are siding with the road underdog Cleveland Cavaliers and 63 percent are on the Over.
Cavs, Warriors meet for Game 5
By: StatFox.com
The Warriors will be looking to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy with a win in Oracle Arena on Monday.
The Cavs had their backs against the wall on Friday, but they ended up coming away with a blowout victory over the Warriors in that Game 4 matchup. Golden State was looking to go a perfect 16-0 in the postseason, but Cleveland ended up winning 137-116. The Cavaliers shot a ridiculous 52.9% from the floor in that game, but they were an even more absurd 24-for-45 from the outside in that one. If they are going to find a way to win on Monday then playing that same game will not be the objective. There is no way Cleveland can outrun Golden State in back-to-back games, so the Cavaliers would be wise to slow things down and focus on getting stops. They have to frustrate the Warriors on their home court, not play to Golden State’s strengths. One trend that favors Cleveland in this game is the fact that the team is 14-6 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Golden State, however, is an even better 16-4 ATS in home games after allowing 130 points or more since 1996. The Warriors also happen to be 18-7 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite under head coach Steve Kerr.
The Cavaliers have been a lot better in the past two games, and that has a lot to do with the play of PG Kyrie Irving (25.9 PPG, 5.2 APG, 1.2 SPG; all players stats in postseason). Over the past two games, Irving is averaging a ridiculous 39.0 PPG and 6.5 RPG. He’ll need to continue to be aggressive in Oakland, as he averaged just 21.5 PPG in the first two games of this series. It’s clear that is not going to be enough, and the Cavaliers need him to get near the 30-point mark. Cleveland will also obviously need outstanding performances from both SF LeBron James (32.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG) and PF Kevin Love (17.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG). James has been his usual self in this series, averaging 31.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 10.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 1.0 BPG. He is still the best player on the court, and he just needs to keep making the right plays on both ends of the floor. Love, meanwhile, has been on and off with his shooting. He was just 1-of-9 from the floor in Game 3, but he had 23 points on 14 shots in Game 4. The team needs him to knock some down in Oracle on Monday.
The Warriors are looking to end this series on Monday, and they’ll need PG Steph Curry (27.7 PPG, 6.5 APG, 6.3 RPG, 1.9 SPG) to find his stroke in this one. Curry was awful in Game 4, going just 4-for-13 from the field and 2-for-9 from three. He can’t afford to miss that many shots moving forward, and he can really help put the dagger in Cleveland by having one of his signature offensive outbursts. Luckily, Golden State has other options if Curry does struggle again. SF Kevin Durant (27.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.4 BPG) is the top dog, and he will likely be the Finals MVP this year. He has scored at least 31 points in all four games in this series, and he should be up for another one of those performances on Monday. SG Klay Thompson (15.3 PPG) is also likely in for a better game on Monday. He is a much better shooter at home than he is on the road, and could get hot in this one. PF Draymond Green (13.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.8 BPG, 1.8 SPG) is another threat on both ends of the floor, but he needs to keep his cool on Monday. He almost got two technicals last game, and he can’t put his team in jeopardy anymore than he already has. He was arguably the reason the team isn’t going for a three-peat this season.
NBA Finals Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Cleveland vs. Golden State – Game 5
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-8.5); Total set at 231.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers managed to live to fight another day with a dominant performance in Game 4, ending the Warriors run at playoff perfection in the process. Cleveland got great performances from LeBron and Kyrie again, but more importantly, the supporting cast stepped up big and the three-ball shot was dropping almost at will.
Cleveland set a NBA Finals record with 24 made three-pointers in the game and their ability to knock down the long distance shot opened up wider driving lanes for LeBron and Kyrie to get to the bucket. It was a winning formula through and through, but it remains to be see if Cleveland can duplicate that success on the road in hostile territory tonight to continue to stay alive.
As great as that Game 4 win was for the Cavs, they are still in a 3-1 hole in the series: the exact same position they found themselves in a year ago. Having succeeded in that role 12 months ago should help the Cavs tonight with the confidence to be able to do it, but it's going to be tough to expect them to blitz the Warriors in Golden State.
Knocking down shots from distance and getting key contributions from supporting cast players like J.R Smith and Tristan Thompson is definitely going to be needed for Cleveland to have a shot, but defense will be a bigger key tonight.
After Head Coach Ty Lue came out and stated that his Cavs team were “too nice” to the Warriors early in this series – especially in Games 1 and 2 – it will be Cleveland's defense that determines whether or not they are able to send this series back to Cleveland for a Game 6 and continue to put more and and more doubt in Golden State's collective consciousness.
Generally speaking, there is a handicapping scenario I like to use during playoff series (in any sport) regarding totals. That is, to lean on or play 'unders' in potential elimination games unless one team is going for a sweep.
In the potential sweep scenario the team down 3-0 is going to fire everything they've got at their opponent, being ultra-aggressive the entire way. However, in all other potential elimination games after that, things tend to tighten up on all fronts. The team that is down tends to adopt a more defensive-first style of play in trying to prevent their opponent from ending their season, and the team up 3-1 or 3-2 still has to battle the idea that the 4th game of a series is the hardest to win. Golden State's defense was one of the best in the NBA this year so it's not like they weren't embarrassed by the barrage of points (86 in the first half) they allowed to the Cavs in Game 4.
Tonight's Game 5 fits all of those scenarios, and with the idea that it's highly unlikely we see record-breaking offensive performances like we saw in Game 4, a play on the 'under' tonight only becomes that much stronger.
For one, the 253 points the Warriors and Cavs put up in Game 5 was the highest of this series so far and has pushed the total above the 230 mark for the first time in this seven-game set. 'Under' bettors now have a few more points to work with in this game, and although the series is 3-1 O/U so far, there is more margin for error here with the total as high as it is. An average of 58 points per quarter is needed for tonight's total to be surpassed and I just don't see it happening.
Remember it's the road team that is fighting for their season tonight and the Cavs aren't about to try and run-and-gun with Golden State like they did in Game 4 at home. If shots are falling at a high rate for Cleveland early on that's great news for them, but don't expect their defensive intensity to lesson in that case as they've got to be able to contain the Warriors for the full 48 minutes if they want to see a Game 6. In last year's Game 5 when the Cavs were in the same scenario, they held Golden State to 36.4% shooting from the floor and under 100 points.
Getting a sub-100 point score from Golden State tonight might be tough, but with both sides wanting, and NEEDING to improve defensively after Game 4, tonight's total won't surpass 231.
Best Bet: Under 231.5